Proposed rule changes (hurry up!)

[Jake]

The percentage of at bats in which the ball is not put in play (home runs, walks, strikeouts, hit batters) is up to 38%. And in the 62% of at-bats when a hitter manages to put a ball into play, the shift is taking away hits and affecting the careers of players like Bruce.

Seven years of evidence is enough. The shift is harming baseball and must go. The career of Jay Bruce—what it was and what it could have been—is the canary in the coal mine. It is too late for Bruce, but not for the next generation of hitters—and fans.

Disagree. This isn't Little League. Teams should line up their defenders wherever they like. If you're dumb enough to keep hitting into it, because you're swinging for the fences every AB, that's your problem.

At bats where the ball is not put in play is the problem - down 38% - and that's on the hitters trying to be Babe Ruth every AB instead of taking what the defense gives them. Blaming the shift is like blaming a football defense because the QB keeps trying to go downfield against a four-deep zone, and getting intercepted. That's on the QB's stupid ass.

Spend a week taking the ball the other way, getting free singles and doubles thanks to the shift, and the defense will react accordingly.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Disagree. This isn't Little League. Teams should line up their defenders wherever they like. If you're dumb enough to keep hitting into it, because you're swinging for the fences every AB, that's your problem.

At bats where the ball is not put in play is the problem - down 38% - and that's on the hitters trying to be Babe Ruth every AB instead of taking what the defense gives them. Blaming the shift is like blaming a football defense because the QB keeps trying to go downfield against a four-deep zone, and getting intercepted. That's on the QB's stupid ass.

Spend a week taking the ball the other way, getting free singles and doubles thanks to the shift, and the defense will react accordingly.

To continue the football analogy though, slapping opposite field singles is like the defense giving you the middle of the field to make you run the clock. You feel like you are doing something but it's a win for the other guy.

If my guy is a legit HR threat, and most of them are, I want him hitting homeruns, not just putting the ball in play. The game today might not be as aesthetically pleasing but it's finally understanding the real math of run creation.

Just my .02

 

[AKAK]

To continue the football analogy though, slapping opposite field singles is like the defense giving you the middle of the field to make you run the clock. You feel like you are doing something but it's a win for the other guy.

If my guy is a legit HR threat, and most of them are, I want him hitting homeruns, not just putting the ball in play. The game today might not be as aesthetically pleasing but it's finally understanding the real math of run creation.

Just my .02

Fuck it, get rid of the DH too.

 

[ScriptOhio]

Inside Minor League Baseball's experimental rules: Oversize bases, robot umps and moving the mound

Triple-A: Larger bases
Bases will increase from 15 square inches to 18 square inches. That also means the distance between the bases will be shortened slightly. It's a small change but the league thinks it could have an impact in various ways: reduced injuries, more baserunners on bunts and soft contact due to a shorter distance to the bag and even more players attempting to stretch singles into doubles. And of course more stolen base attempts. In other words, just more action.

"Just putting the ball in play will make you more likely to reach the base," Epstein said. "Infields would have to play in. More balls would get through. The value of a single rises dramatically. The trip around the bases is easier. Now there'll be a huge premium on just getting on base and athletes who can run.

"You're not necessarily accomplishing all that by extending the base three inches but you are around the margins. You are nudging the game in a better direction."

Double-A: Regulating the shift
To start the season, infielders will be required to have their feet on the dirt, though they can stand anywhere on the infield.

In the second half of the Double-A season, the rules will require two infielders to be positioned on either side of second base as well as have their cleats on the dirt as the pitch is thrown.

Baseball is still figuring this one out, hence breaking up the experiment to the first and second halves of the season.

"There are some issues to going to two on each side," Epstein explained. "There's enforcement and player safety. You might have fielders moving with the pitch or the swing. Umpires would have to be focused on the action. A little more work to do."

Low-A Southeast: Automated balls and strikes (ABS)
Robot umpires will be experimented with for the first time in affiliated baseball. Previously, the Atlantic League and the Arizona Fall League used electronic signaling for balls and strikes, but now select low-A games will have the home plate umpire wearing an earpiece connected to TrackMan radar systems installed in the park. The software will say ball or strike to the umpire who announce it to the players and crowd.

Epstein stressed electronic calling of balls and strikes isn't just about umpires getting the call right.

"You're seeing the ABS being used in the low minors this year because with that comes the potential to change the strike zone to one that is optimal for contact," Epstein said. "Different strike zones lead to different styles of play."

Atlantic League: Moving pitching rubber back a foot
This change, debuting in the second half of the league's season, could be the panacea baseball is looking for without changing the aesthetics of the game. Will anyone really notice the rubber is 61 feet, six inches from home plate instead of 60 feet, six inches? The last time baseball moved the rubber back -- granted it was five feet and in 1893 -- strikeouts declined and batting averages went up 35 points.

"The extra foot gives the hitter an extra 1/100th of a second of reaction time, which is the equivalent of a mile-and-a half of velocity," Epstein said. "The presumption is that it will allow hitters to make more contact against premium velocity. That's the theory."

More new rules

• At high-A, pitchers must disengage the rubber prior to throwing to any base or else a balk will be called. With this change, Left-handers will no longer be able to step towards first base with their foot on the rubber. The goal is an increase in stolen base attempts.
  
  
• At all low-A levels, pitchers will be limited to a total of two "step offs" or "pickoffs" per plate appearance while there is at least one runner on base. A pitcher may attempt a third step off or pickoff in the same plate appearance, however, if the runner safely returns to the occupied base, the result is a balk.
  
  
• At Low-A West, a 15-second pitch clock will be implemented with on-field timers expanded to one in the outfield and two behind home plate, between the dugouts.
  
  
• The Atlantic League will experiment with the "double-hook" designated hitter rule. Once a team's starting pitcher is removed from the game, so is their designated hitter. The goal is to incentivize starters to go along as well as create late game strategy.

Entire article: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...-rules-oversize-bases-robot-umps-moving-mound

Just sayin': I do like the Automated Balls Strikes (ABS), etc.

 

[AKAK]

To continue the football analogy though, slapping opposite field singles is like the defense giving you the middle of the field to make you run the clock. You feel like you are doing something but it's a win for the other guy.

If my guy is a legit HR threat, and most of them are, I want him hitting homeruns, not just putting the ball in play. The game today might not be as aesthetically pleasing but it's finally understanding the real math of run creation.

Just my .02

Just as a placeholder here, at this point MLB teams are averaging 4.36 runs per game. 2019 was 4.85. (and 2020 was 4.6x)

If I remember I will look again in July. But I bring this up for 2 reasons, 1. Is are we really looking at the math of run creation or the math of salary inflation. And 2, is the effect of.the HR/K/BB 3 true outcomes letting pitchers off the hook?

I get that focusing on th best outcome for each hitter should lead to the best outcome for the team, on the other hand, 3 run home runs are way better than solo home runs.

This is a couple weeks old, but as they say, nonetheless....



That's sub 1968 shit there.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Just as a placeholder here, at this point MLB teams are averaging 4.36 runs per game. 2019 was 4.85. (and 2020 was 4.6x)

If I remember I will look again in July. But I bring this up for 2 reasons, 1. Is are we really looking at the math of run creation or the math of salary inflation. And 2, is the effect of.the HR/K/BB 3 true outcomes letting pitchers off the hook?

I get that focusing on th best outcome for each hitter should lead to the best outcome for the team, on the other hand, 3 run home runs are way better than solo home runs.

This is a couple weeks old, but as they say, nonetheless....



That's sub 1968 shit there.

Few thoughts;
-I don't see how you bifurcate run creation and salary inflation because, to what ever degree of effectiveness, owners are going to pay for run creation and the most important components of it.
-three true outcomes doesn't let the pitchers off the hook for anything as I can see it. There are all kinds of metrics to track, and penalize, the guy who gives up solo HR's vs the guy who gives up 3 run HR's

One macro thing I think we may be seeing is the tendency of all baseball fans to attribute the goings on to the hitter. I'm not quite sure what the bias is exactly but we always seem to look at run scoring, or any of it's components, as something that starts with the hitter. Look at it through the pitchers lens first, read up on expected velocity and see if you don't think maybe pitchers are just learning how to dominate hitters again.

For those unfamiliar with it, Expected Velocity (EV) theory starts to help all pitchers be more like Greg Maddux even if they can throw it like Nolan Ryan. It has the potential to be a 1968 like watershed moment for pitchers in their ongoing battle with hitters.

 

[AKAK]

Few thoughts;
-I don't see how you bifurcate run creation and salary inflation because, to what ever degree of effectiveness, owners are going to pay for run creation and the most important components of it.
-three true outcomes doesn't let the pitchers off the hook for anything as I can see it. There are all kinds of metrics to track, and penalize, the guy who gives up solo HR's vs the guy who gives up 3 run HR's

One macro thing I think we may be seeing is the tendency of all baseball fans to attribute the goings on to the hitter. I'm not quite sure what the bias is exactly but we always seem to look at run scoring, or any of it's components, as something that starts with the hitter. Look at it through the pitchers lens first, read up on expected velocity and see if you don't think maybe pitchers are just learning how to dominate hitters again.

For those unfamiliar with it, Expected Velocity (EV) theory starts to help all pitchers be more like Greg Maddux even if they can throw it like Nolan Ryan. It has the potential to be a 1968 like watershed moment for pitchers in their ongoing battle with hitters.

I'm not bifurcating anything (that was in my Dean Martin "choose your beneficiary" voice)

In fact what I am saying is it may all be self fulfilling. Maybe expected velocity theory works better when marginal power hitters are taking an all or nothing approach.

I see your point, the quick answer is no, I don't think the pitchers are a half run better in 2 years.... what I meant by off the hook is, in 2 of the 3 outcomes, the result is discrete, and you don't have a runner on second (unless there were multiple walks) and thus the next guy isn't just trying to make contact, he might as well hit a dinger or K too.

Gregg Maddux's career K per 9 was 6.1 and his highest for his career was 7.0...

Nolan Ryan was 9.5/11.3 (which is ridiculous of course)

Bob Gibson in 1968 was 7.9

Shane Bieber is over 14 since the beginning of last season (17 starts)... Bauer is over 12.... so what I mean by off the hook is, if these jackasses are just gonna walk up there and K.... maybe they're not taking the best approach, and maybe the current conventional thinking about the best way to create runs isn't actually the best way.

 

[Jaxbuck]

so what I mean by off the hook is, if these jackasses are just gonna walk up there and K.... maybe they're not taking the best approach, and maybe the current conventional thinking about the best way to create runs isn't actually the best way.

Don't make an out is rule #1. Accumulate as many bases as possible when you don't make an out is rule #2. That's all that really goes into run creation.

Strikeouts are an out but they aren't inherently worse than any other kind of out in the grand scheme of things and they aren't a results of "trying" to do anything specific at the plate.

EV is starting to put science behind the human limits of what a hitter, any hitter, can do at the plate in terms of reaction time and pitch recognition. As it is better understood an implemented you could easily see half run a game kind of run prevention changes. I used the Maddux and Ryan comps for this; imagine guys with Nolan Ryan kind of stuff being what we used to call a "smart" pitcher like Maddux.

Maddux used to say he wanted everything he threw to look like "ice cream", meaning every pitch looked the same out of his hand for the first 20 feet or so and only then would a hitter see any movement or speed changes. The net/net of EV is that if you can do that and put those pitches in specific locations, then the hitter stands almost no chance to make perfect contact, perfectly on time. Anything short of 100% on time and barreled has a very low chance of being hit hard enough to hurt you. Once you get all that you start to see that by misplaced pitches, pitchers are actually hitting the bats of fooled hitters.

I know it sounds nuts but it will blow your hair back when you start digging into it.

 

[AKAK]

Don't make an out is rule #1. Accumulate as many bases as possible when you don't make an out is rule #2. That's all that really goes into run creation.

Strikeouts are an out but they aren't inherently worse than any other kind of out in the grand scheme of things and they aren't a results of "trying" to do anything specific at the plate.

EV is starting to put science behind the human limits of what a hitter, any hitter, can do at the plate in terms of reaction time and pitch recognition. As it is better understood an implemented you could easily see half run a game kind of run prevention changes. I used the Maddux and Ryan comps for this; imagine guys with Nolan Ryan kind of stuff being what we used to call a "smart" pitcher like Maddux.

Maddux used to say he wanted everything he threw to look like "ice cream", meaning every pitch looked the same out of his hand for the first 20 feet or so and only then would a hitter see any movement or speed changes. The net/net of EV is that if you can do that and put those pitches in specific locations, then the hitter stands almost no chance to make perfect contact, perfectly on time. Anything short of 100% on time and barreled has a very low chance of being hit hard enough to hurt you. Once you get all that you start to see that by misplaced pitches, pitchers are actually hitting the bats of fooled hitters.

I know it sounds nuts but it will blow your hair back when you start digging into it.

While K's aren't inherently bad for batters on a per at bat basis, they are inherently good for pitchers is it relates to ERA... so if the hitters are going to swing harder and earlier (and they are), it will increase the effectiveness of Madduxs ice cream. What was once vanilla is now date nut.

 

[Jaxbuck]

While K's aren't inherently bad for batters on a per at bat basis, they are inherently good for pitchers is it relates to ERA... so if the hitters are going to swing harder and earlier (and they are), it will increase the effectiveness of Madduxs ice cream. What was once vanilla is now date nut.

ERA is only concerned with Runs (with arbitrary judgement as to "earned" or "unearned") and innings pitched. Strikeouts do not affect it.

The data is out there on the correlation between K's and Runs scored. I don't really follow it anymore but it's never going to get to a cause and effect level because K's are just part of run creation/prevention. As bad as they feel when they happen, they aren't inherently worse than any other kind of out.

All the DIPS stats get into measuring a pitcher on what they can control and are a lot more fruitful spot to validate theories on run creation than ERA.

To me, where we want to look is into the portion of BABIP that falls under the category of "mis-timed" or "mis-hit". How often to mist timed/mishit balls put into play fall for a hit? Then after that, how many bases are accumulated? Instinct would tell us that the returns on those kind of hits are minimal and that's what people are proposing hitters do when they say "just make contact/put the ball in play. I have no data to actually try and validate anything there.

 

[AKAK]

ERA is only concerned with Runs (with arbitrary judgement as to "earned" or "unearned") and innings pitched. Strikeouts do not affect it.

The data is out there on the correlation between K's and Runs scored. I don't really follow it anymore but it's never going to get to a cause and effect level because K's are just part of run creation/prevention. As bad as they feel when they happen, they aren't inherently worse than any other kind of out.

All the DIPS stats get into measuring a pitcher on what they can control and are a lot more fruitful spot to validate theories on run creation than ERA.

To me, where we want to look is into the portion of BABIP that falls under the category of "mis-timed" or "mis-hit". How often to mist timed/mishit balls put into play fall for a hit? Then after that, how many bases are accumulated? Instinct would tell us that the returns on those kind of hits are minimal and that's what people are proposing hitters do when they say "just make contact/put the ball in play. I have no data to actually try and validate anything there.

I mean, you're being dishonest a little bit now. The whole of this discussion started with the value of situational hitting vs shifts etc. Not "just put it in play" - also obviously things should you 9 hitter be looking to tie it up down 1 in the 9th with no one on? Of course they should. Its it easier for pitchers to attack tendencies if you only have one tendency?

But strikeouts certainly do benefit ERA and likely anything else downstream from that. Lets say a groundout is .05 runs more valuable than a strikeout. For a hitter this is minimal. But 7 of those per 9 innings over a season is a thing for pitchers.

7% swing and miss rate difference is a thing.

I don't need advanced stats to watch a game and realize with a dude on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, dudes only know how to try to hit the piss out of it. The fact remains thwt fewer baserunners and fewer balls in play equals less pressure on the defense and that leads to fewer runs.

The other part of Maddux (and the rest of those golfers gor the braves) was, his ice cream looked the same alright, looked like at the knees and 2 inches off the plate daring the ump not to call a strike.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I mean, you're being dishonest a little bit now. The whole of this discussion started with the value of situational hitting vs shifts etc. Not "just put it in play" - also obviously things should you 9 hitter be looking to tie it up down 1 in the 9th with no one on? Of course they should. Its it easier for pitchers to attack tendencies if you only have one tendency?

But strikeouts certainly do benefit ERA and likely anything else downstream from that. Lets say a groundout is .05 runs more valuable than a strikeout. For a hitter this is minimal. But 7 of those per 9 innings over a season is a thing for pitchers.

7% swing and miss rate difference is a thing.

I don't need advanced stats to watch a game and realize with a dude on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, dudes only know how to try to hit the piss out of it. The fact remains thwt fewer baserunners and fewer balls in play equals less pressure on the defense and that leads to fewer runs.

The other part of Maddux (and the rest of those golfers gor the braves) was, his ice cream looked the same alright, looked like at the knees and 2 inches off the plate daring the ump not to call a strike.

The main disagreement here is attributing strikeouts to "trying to hit a HR"

a strikeout is just like any other out, it happens because the guys swung early, late or right through it. A slow roller to SS because the guy was out on his front foot could just as easily be a result of being too aggressive/trying to hit a HR.

Likewise, taking a called 3rd strike surely isn't being too aggressive/trying to hit a HR so do we back those out fo K rates to see if guys are swinging for the fences too much?

The worst team in MLB today at swinging strike rate is DET at something like 13-14%. That could be the only number readily available to casual fans that could point toward being too aggressive/trying to hit HR's. Does that small of a swing and miss rate really put a damper on run production? I have no idea but I don't think it possibly could.

As a pitcher, i will give you that the best out is the kind where no ball is put into play because we know BABIP is ~30% but that includes hard hit balls that you as the pitcher allowed to happen. BABIP on mistimed/mishit balls is the only thing that I can think of that could get to the point we are searching for here.

 

[AKAK]

The main disagreement here is attributing strikeouts to "trying to hit a HR"

No one did that.

a strikeout is just like any other out, it happens because the guys swung early, late or right through it. A slow roller to SS because the guy was out on his front foot could just as easily be a result of being too aggressive/trying to hit a HR.

A strikeout is NOT like any other our for the pitcher/defense.

Likewise, taking a called 3rd strike surely isn't being too aggressive/trying to hit a HR so do we back those out fo K rates to see if guys are swinging for the fences too much?

I'm not sure why you make this assertion... the shift situation is precisely the kind of scenario where this may not be true. And I don't know that I've said its about aggression at all...

Let's say you're a typical lefthanded dead pull hitter, you're "I'm gonna hit this for extra bases" pitch location is middle in and down.... rip down the line double might be drop the bat head below the knees... hit it 400 to the power alley is mid thigh inside corner. Everyone knows this infield shift is on... now maybe you're a beast and if they leave it belt high a couple inches outside you can drive it in the air out of the yard left center, but once you can't put that launch angle on it, if its just a few inches down and away you're rolling it over to the 2B... now, how is watching a Maddux 2 inches off the plate at the knees where he gets the call NOT overly aggressive? That's not swinging at a pitch you don't think you can drive for extra bases... (or worse, swinging at it and trying to pull it... I mean is that a mishit or stupid?) Point is, trying to hit home runs or get extra bases isn't just swinging hard (that happens obviously) but that's the product of overall approach. If you can only pull the ball for "power" why swing at pitches you can't pull?

The worst team in MLB today at swinging strike rate is DET at something like 13-14%. That could be the only number readily available to casual fans that could point toward being too aggressive/trying to hit HR's. Does that small of a swing and miss rate really put a damper on run production? I have no idea but I don't think it possibly could.

Detroit strikes out a lot and sucks. Tampa Bay strikes out about as much but isn't too bad. But, last year they had both a Bieber and a Bauer like K's per 9 starter (where the Tigers have... uh.. yeah). Now Snell is gone and they're kind of pedestrian (they also outperformed their pythagorean by 4 games last year out of 60)

As a pitcher, i will give you that the best out is the kind where no ball is put into play because we know BABIP is ~30% but that includes hard hit balls that you as the pitcher allowed to happen. BABIP on mistimed/mishit balls is the only thing that I can think of that could get to the point we are searching for here.

What's BABIP hitting into corners in, or infield in, double play depth, or outfielders accounting for runners on 3rd vs no runners on base? Should guys be looking to drive it in the gap or out in the 10th inning with the dude on 2nd? What's the win % if you get that run, or do you need 2?

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

I don't mean to stick my nose in this, but I don't think a K is exactly like any other out. Take a Sac Fly, or Sac bunt (does anyone play the short game anymore?) those are run producing outs. You could have a run producing out in certain Fielder's Choice situations. There are very few run producing Ks - it'd have to come on a WP or PB with a runner on 3rd.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I don't mean to stick my nose in this, but I don't think a K is exactly like any other out. Take a Sac Fly, or Sac bunt (does anyone play the short game anymore?) those are run producing outs. You could have a run producing out in certain Fielder's Choice situations. There are very few run producing Ks - it'd have to come on a WP or PB with a runner on 3rd.

Not sure, this one was circled the drain a bit.

If I've gotten off track, my macro point/belief is that it's the pitchers being better, not the hitters being worse (all the swinging and missing going on at the MLB level).