Cignetti wants to leave a legacy.  Another 3 - 5 competitive years at Indiana and he can retire as an idol there.  Of course, he also was born in Pittsburgh.  He might be attracted to the Pirates approach to winning.
		
		
	 
This is what I believe. He's already a legend there as long as he doesn't fumble. And expectations are low. If he can be on the cusp of a playoff spot, he's golden. 
He can either be a sports bar trivia night answer for who coached at Penn State for a few years between Franklin and whoever is next, or he can be on the 50 yardline before the Hoosier home opener in 10 years when they officially announce the name change to Cignetti Stadium. With a big bronze statue out front. 
And I think he'd rather have the latter. The dude has been waiting for his shot to become HC for most of his adult life. If he takes the opportunity he has at Indiana for granted and leaves, I think it would only be if he had the opportunity to win a NC somewhere. And that would require a situation where a program has the roster ready to compete for a title, which means they just fired an elite recruiter, and also have the NIL required to plug holes in the squad, keep players during a coaching change and go toe to toe with the Ohio State/Texas/Bama/Georgia tier of programs. And for a program to be checking all of those boxes, why would they be getting rid of their current coach?
I'd bet that Cignetti is at Indiana to stay. If he isn't, then I've completely misread the man. And I feel he's making a mistake. 
FYI; I know he's widely hated on here, but I love the guy. He's obnoxious and confident because that's what is required to get attention . And attention is what gets recruits to consider playing at places like JMU and Indiana. 
And I love that there's a shit talking coach in the Big Ten. I hate all of this modern mutual respect where coaches refuse to talk shit about their opponents or each other. I wish Day were as honest and outspoken as Cignetti when it comes to Michigan, Harbaugh and Moore. Cig gives no fucks and makes college football more fun to watch. And so far he's backed up most of it and exceeded expectations...while at INDIANA. The single worst program in history. You got to respect the guy. He's a fucking winner.
And because of Cignetti, we can shit talk the Auburn, LSU, USC, Oklahoma, Florida, Florida State, Miami etc. fans and say "dude, you're talking shit when INDIANA made the playoff and your team got left out!" Every Buckeye fan reading this should thank Cig for that. You have to admit that we all owe him one for that at least.