Game Thread Penn State at tOSU, Sat. Nov. 1st, 12pm ET, FOX

[sflbuck]

After watching the PSU/Iowa, I'm struggling to surpress my flashbacks of MSU in 2015.

Note to Ryan Day- All gas no brakes from the start.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

I think the line should be small. Ped still has all that preseason talent, and they are also coming off a bye week. I expect them to come out with something to prove. This will be a hard fought 4th quarter game IMO.

I do think it will be hard for them to throw the ball, but this is the second best defense we have faced all year.

Oh I agree.....I just don't like that Vegas agrees, IF they agree.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Why is this line so small?

I am with @gmen6981 here, I think you see a stale line that can't really be bet.

I am looking on draft kings who is the most aggressive of the bigger sites for early lines and you can't bet that game right now.

The power rankings numbers I am familiar with spit this out at something like OSU a true 17-18 point favorite with home field at -2.5 included.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

I am with @gmen6981 here, I think you see a stale line that can't really be bet.

I am looking on draft kings who is the most aggressive of the bigger sites for early lines and you can't bet that game right now.

The power rankings numbers I am familiar with spit this out at something like OSU a true 17-18 point favorite with home field at -2.5 included.

Nice. But also, I'm taking the pedo enablers and the points with that spread.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Nice. But also, I'm taking the pedo enablers and the points with that spread.

At this point in the season the stats portion of the "true" lines they make are remarkably accurate. It's the market/game/injury/weather type of layers that are the difference makers.

I don't agree with anyone who fears OSU is flat for this one. I think Knowles took care of all that back in January. The key positions are QB and coaching, not sure if they are actually worse or better at HC but I'd wager the new QB is a step back, even if it's juts game experience.

That's why they cal it gambling but I wouldn't feel good about getting anything less than 21 if I was backing PSU.

 

[ochre]

At this point in the season the stats portion of the "true" lines they make are remarkably accurate. It's the market/game/injury/weather/cheating type of layers that are the difference makers.

fify

 

[Jagdaddy]

At this point in the season the stats portion of the "true" lines they make are remarkably accurate. It's the market/game/injury/weather type of layers that are the difference makers.

I don't agree with anyone who fears OSU is flat for this one. I think Knowles took care of all that back in January. The key positions are QB and coaching, not sure if they are actually worse or better at HC but I'd wager the new QB is a step back, even if it's juts game experience.

That's why they cal it gambling but I wouldn't feel good about getting anything less than 21 if I was backing PSU.

I don't think OSU will be flat at all, but I wouldn't touch this game, assuming a 10-point or more spread, because I have absolutely no idea what PSU is going to come out looking like. I could see an OSU slaughter (more likely) or something like 23-13 depending on that.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I don't think OSU will be flat at all, but I wouldn't touch this game, assuming a 10-point or more spread, because I have absolutely no idea what PSU is going to come out looking like. I could see an OSU slaughter (more likely) or something like 23-13 depending on that.

Weather is my wait and see but as for possible outcomes, anything can happen. It's what do you put the odds at?

As long as you are right ~53% of the time, you will be ok.

 

[gmen6981]

I think the line should be small. Ped still has all that preseason talent, and they are also coming off a bye week. I expect them to come out with something to prove. This will be a hard fought 4th quarter game IMO.

I do think it will be hard for them to throw the ball, but this is the second best defense we have faced all year.

That defense has looked pretty poor the last few games, plus their best LB, who was probably their best defensive player( Rojas) is out indefinitely, probably for the season. I DO expect them to come out fired up, they always seem to play out of their heads against the Bucks. but I just don't see them being able to hang with OSU. Their Oline is not good, their vaunted RBs have looked like hot garbage and their QB is their backup with Allar done for the season. Grunkemeyer made his first start against Iowa on Saturday. It wasn't Devon Brown/Kienholz Cotton Bowl bad, but it wasn't pretty.

 

[jwinslow]

I think the line should be small. Ped still has all that preseason talent, and they are also coming off a bye week. I expect them to come out with something to prove. This will be a hard fought 4th quarter game IMO.

I do think it will be hard for them to throw the ball, but this is the second best defense we have faced all year.

I think it will be close because this is their premiere rivalry and a chance to redeem some semblance of their season.

It's not because they are brimming with talent. Their offense has:

1 running qb confused with an NFL prospect who is now out
2 good not great RBs
little to no skill players

and a talented defense that took a huge step back without Rojas

So a low end version of what they usually bring.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I think it will be close because this is their premiere rivalry and a chance to redeem some semblance of their season.

It's not because they are brimming with talent. Their offense has:

1 running qb confused with an NFL prospect who is now out
2 good not great RBs
little to no skill players

and a talented defense that took a huge step back without Rojas

So a low end version of what they usually bring.

and if you take the names off it and look at numbers their defense profiles like that of Minny and Washington. It's especially poor at RZ defense.

Their offense can't really be handicapped with numbers because it's just a week into a new QB.

I do give some credence to their motivation for this and there is always a chance for extreme weather once the calendar flips to November but a lot more has to go right for them to stay in this than has to go right for OSU to win comfortably.

Turnovers, special teams, weather. They aren't going to just line up and beat OSU.