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Game Thread Ohio State vs Michigan State - 10/05/19, 7:30PM (ABC)

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Jaxbuck said:
Earliest lines I see have OSU -13.5
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OHIO STATE OPENS AS 17-POINT FAVORITES AGAINST SPARTY

No. 4 Ohio State opened as 17-point favorites against the Michigan State Spartans, and that line has already climbed to 19.5 points in less than an hour, according to Vegas Insider.

The Spartans snuck into the top-25 this week after a close game with Indiana, where they failed to cover a 14-point spread.

The Buckeyes have covered in each of their last four games, only failing to do so against Florida Atlantic (-24) in the first contest of the season.

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio...te-opens-as-17-point-favorites-against-sparty
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Opening lines were 17, went up to 19.5 per Script's above post, and as I type this the two places having active lines on http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ (VI Consensus and Circa Sports) have Ohio State -22. :lol:

Being -22 with a 48 O/U implies a score of 35-13. I seriously doubt it'll be that close...
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I personally had it about OSU -18 and was going to hammer that 13.5 if it made it all the way through.

19+ is getting a little frothy for me
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Opening lines were 17, went up to 19.5 per Script's above post, and as I type this the two places having active lines on http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ (VI Consensus and Circa Sports) have Ohio State -22. :lol:

Being -22 with a 48 O/U implies a score of 35-13. I seriously doubt it'll be that close...
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While the line has moved up 5, the O/U has moved down a point and a half. The original line implied roughly 33-16.

Either score is a game well into the 4th quarter unless it’s a shutout after 3.
 
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MSU is leading the B1G in only 1 stat that I consider meaningful, sacks allowed. They’ve given up only 4 over 5 games.

So the line protects ok, but is part of a running attack that manages barely 4 yards a carry.

Lewerke avoids sacks well, but has thrown for a passing efficiency of only 141.6, good for a pedestrian 8th in the conference.

They may well avoid sacks better than most, and that might even continue vs the Buckeyes, but the only way that translates into points is if OSU plays worse than they have thus far and MSU plays better. Unfortunately, history tells us that’s a possibility. Unlikely, sure, but possible.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
MSU is leading the B1G in only 1 stat that I consider meaningful, sacks allowed. They’ve given up only 4 over 5 games.

So the line protects ok, but is part of a running attack that manages barely 4 yards a carry.

Lewerke avoids sacks well, but has thrown for a passing efficiency of only 141.6, good for a pedestrian 8th in the conference.

They may well avoid sacks better than most, and that might even continue vs the Buckeyes, but the only way that translates into points is if OSU plays worse than they have thus far and MSU plays better. Unfortunately, history tells us that’s a possibility. Unlikely, sure, but possible.
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-22 seams about right and I think we cover.

If Indiana is throwing down 31 on them we are going for 42+ and we all know they do not have an answer for our defense.

I like Stewart #25 for them but Okudah/Arnette/Wade Eliminate him as a threat. MSU just doesn't have the depth of skill plays to stress us in any way possible.

Their only hope is a 2015 repeat were our OL is overwhelmed and their defense suffocates us and we all know that will not happen.
 
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bukIpower said:
-22 seams about right and I think we cover.

If Indiana is throwing down 31 on them we are going for 42+ and we all know they do not have an answer for our defense.

I like Stewart #25 for them but Okudah/Arnette/Wade Eliminate him as a threat. MSU just doesn't have the depth of skill plays to stress us in any way possible.

Their only hope is a 2015 repeat were our OL is overwhelmed and their defense suffocates us and we all know that will not happen.
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I think it’s entirely possible that OSU covers

I agree with your main point

I don’t agree that Ohio State is certain to score more than Indiana did.

Ohio State’s offense is much better than Indiana’s

But for reasons I’ve already elaborated, I think it’s reasonable to expect Sparty to play much better in the Horseshoe than they did against the Hoosiers

The wildcard to me is: “Will the Buckeyes obliterate them anyway?”
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
I think it’s entirely possible that OSU covers

I agree with your main point

I don’t agree that Ohio State is certain to score more than Indiana did.

Ohio State’s offense is much better than Indiana’s

But for reasons I’ve already elaborated, I think it’s reasonable to expect Sparty to play much better in the Horseshoe than they did against the Hoosiers

The wildcard to me is: “Will the Buckeyes obliterate them anyway?”
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This OSU team is playing so well that every week we win the narrative is "OSU is still unchallenged". Which is funny because we have heard 3 times now (Cincinnati, Indiana, and UN) that for those weeks that that was the week we will finally get tested.

To me it seems like they're good teams but we are so good that it looks easy.

Maybe you are right about MSU but I think it'll be just another situation of "well that looked easy".
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
I know that the game we played in Bloomington was two calendar weeks and three games ago, and that Sparty may have been looking past Indiana yesterday in their FG-at-the-end win, but I fail to see how the line for this game is only 13.5. Seriously. We curb stomp Indy at their place by 41. Sparty squeaks by them at home 34-31 on a last second FG. While transitive properties are not always a good measure of future outcome, there is such a disparity in the two outcomes--along with the fact the game is at The Shoe--that having a line under 2 TDs should be borderline counterfeiting.
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Ended up 40-31, did you miss Sparty's last-second garbage TD after Indiana tried a couple laterals on the final kickoff, reminiscent of tOSU's finish against NW'ern a few years ago giving us the 'bad beat' cover? :lol:
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
I think it’s entirely possible that OSU covers

I agree with your main point

I don’t agree that Ohio State is certain to score more than Indiana did.

Ohio State’s offense is much better than Indiana’s

But for reasons I’ve already elaborated, I think it’s reasonable to expect Sparty to play much better in the Horseshoe than they did against the Hoosiers

The wildcard to me is: “Will the Buckeyes obliterate the anyway?”
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Exactly.

This is the opposite kind of style fight as Nebraska. UNL style makes them try to out-OSU, OSU with vastly inferior talent. It's like the old Celtics teams trying to play fast break offense with the Lakers. It's an easy recipe for an ass beating.

This week you have Ali vs Frazier. Two completely different styles. When that happens, the team that can dictate it's style will determine how the game goes.

If MSU can drag it down into a Tresselball grinder, they will have a punchers chance. If OSU can impose it's offensive will on MSU's defense, it's blow out city a la 2017.

Incredibly hard to guess which style ends up being played. Zero question that OSU has better talent but if that talent can't impose it's will then it can find itself in a dogfight.

All that said, what MSU has done vs other teams up to this point means nothing. They have the combination of style, good enough talent and refusal to be intimidated that it takes to punch this OSU team in the mouth and see how they react.

MSU is used to rolling around in the mud to win a close, dirty, ugly game. OSU is not.
 
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In my mind, NU was the measuring stick for the Silver Bullet defense. We knew going in our offense would roll against the NU defense.

The silver bullets obviously passed.

This week we’ll see how Elite this offense really is. I’m cautiously optimistic, but I do think we may come back to earth a bit. We’ve been ripping holes in D lines and the throws that are shorter and typically more dangerous have been to wide open receivers.

I’m excited...and nervous to see how Fields responds to tighter windows. Will he be on time and accurate, throw into danger, or hold the ball too long as we’ve seen on occasion. How will he respond when we aren’t running for 7 a pop? Can he run the read option consistently when ‘the chips are down’?

Based on yesterday, I don’t see Sparty having much success against this D...but they have a knack for dashing potential championship seasons, so I’ll be nervous.

The schedule is really lining up nicely - our most difficult opponents are later and at home (Wiscy and Pedsters). Of course TSUN with a first time coach on the road will thrilling regardless of records. Go Bucks!
 
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