Game Thread Ohio State 3, Southern Cal 35 (Sept. 13)

[zincfinger]

Heacock has produced some very good Ds in the last few years. The one glaring [exception] is the lack of TE coverage in the last two NC games. Especially frustrating was in the Fla game when they could dump off to the short middle at will. I normally don't question good coaches, but when I can see an obvious problem, they should too. All he had to do was put a LB or safety 7 yards off the line and tell him to stay there. Instant INT. As far as the LSU rushing attack, wasn't much Heacock could do. LSU's team blocking was unreal.

When your opponent is consistently running the football between the tackles for 4+ yards a pop as it is, you can't really afford to put a linebacker or safety 7 yards off the LOS and tell him to stay there.

 

[BB73]

Who?

Mays is a safety with a combination of size and speed that will make him a likely first round draft choice next year.

pete-fiutak

Pete Fiutak's Top 32 Pro Prospects for 2009

13. Taylor Mays, S USC (Jr.)
The Skinny: At 6-4 and 225 pounds, Mays hits like a linebacker and is as fast as any Trojan. He's been a playmaker from Day 1, especially against the run, and now he has to show he can do a bit more when the ball is in the air to solidify a spot in the top 20.

 

[Buckeye86]

Through the link BB73 posted above.

3. Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB Ohio State (Jr.)
The Skinny: With size, breakaway speed and toughness between the tackles, Beanie is a do-it-all back who can be a 25-carry NFL franchise builder. With the talent coming back on the Buckeyes line, only injuries will keep Wells from being deep in the hunt for the Heisman.

5. James Laurinaitis, LB Ohio State
The Skinny: There's no doubt he would've been a top 15, maybe top 10 pick had he come out early. It'll be interesting to see if there's a little bit of a backlash considering how much great press he's received over the last few years, or if he'll turn into A.J. Hawk as far as national respect. He can put up big numbers, but he has to be better against the pass and not make so many plays 10 yards down the field against the run.

7. Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State
The Skinny: He likely would've been the first corner taken in the 2008 draft with his combination of safety size and blazing speed. Better against big or fast receivers, he has to prove in his senior year that he can lock down against the small, quick types. Tackling isn't an issue.

19. Marcus Freeman, LB Ohio State
The Skinny: He overcame a knee injury early in his career to be a top tackler next to Laurinaitis. At 245 pounds, he has the size to play inside, but he's an outside defender at the next level with the speed and quickness to get into the backfield on a regular basis.

20. Alex Boone, OT Ohio State
The Skinny: Boone could've been gone after this year and would've been a top 50 pick, and now he's almost certain to go in the first round. The 6-8, 325-pound star of the line has the feet to stay with the speed defenders and the size to dominate in the ground game.

4. Rey Maualuga, LB USC
The Skinny: In a strange way, Maualuga might have been the top linebacker taken in the 2008 draft, but he might have been the least ready of all the top prospects. He can move, hit and, well, he can really, really hit. He's a top inside defender to potentially build a defense around.

12. Brian Cushing, LB USC
The Skinny: Injuries kept him from having a huge 2007, but with his all-around game and his potential to be effective in any scheme at any outside position, he's a lock to be a top 30 pick. He won't have the "wow" factor of Maulaluga or Laurinaitis, but the NFL scouts will love him.


13. Taylor Mays, S USC (Jr.)
The Skinny: At 6-4 and 225 pounds, Mays hits like a linebacker and is as fast as any Trojan. He's been a playmaker from Day 1, especially against the run, and now he has to show he can do a bit more when the ball is in the air to solidify a spot in the top 20.

There will be a lot of talent on the field on September 13th. Especially at linebacker, has there ever been four linebackers playing on the field at the same time in college that are taken in the first round? If it happens, that has to be some kind of record.

 

[jwinslow]

Nice statistics guys, but my brain hurts reading all of that

What about Taylor Mays?

more than up to the task, imo.

Who?

06 superstar recruit, 5-star, high target of TSUN, been standout starter for 2 years, AA last year... and arguably the most freakish defender in CFB. Not exactly a low-profile guy.

 

[TheIronColonel]

I appreciate the effort in tearing the stats apart.

That's very interesting considering the gap in carry totals. I understand the idea of the median, but this in all its efforts is still confined by the fact it excludes the weakest aspects of the defense/strongest aspects of the offense.

The truly curious cases would be in the more extreme circumstance before becoming relevant. From 9 ypc to 3 ypc by running the median doesn't jump off the page considering the lack of total carries. Indeed it tells more of well rounded account of play by play, but not the degree that tells me Mendenhall was held in check and therefore relegated due to the final score. In fact, its similar to Beanie's 146 on 20 with a 65 yard sprint. The real hole in both games was turnovers, not their unaffectiveness.

Say Rashard had 20 carries; 19 for 5 yards, and one 95 yard run. The medium would therefore be far lower than the 5 ypc that would show from a standard percentage calculation. This is where the decent ypc would be a facade.

Thanks. I've got the season's data for Boeckman and Beanie tabulated now (although I can't figure out why my directly transcribed numbers from game logs don't always agree with the 'official' statistical sums given by the ncaa). I'll post those in the stats thread when my head stops hurting. Note to self: staring at statistics on a computer screen for 3 hours is not the best way to unwind after a weekend in Vegas followed by a thorough brain raping by a partial differential equations exam.

At any rate, I agree in principle with your point. The median usually pulls down the numbers by a bit, mostly because it's far more likely to see a huge gain than a huge loss (have you ever witnessed a 65 yard run? I have. I've never seen a 65 yard loss, though). All the same, I do think it's good information to have in cases like Mendenhall@USC. 9 ypc down to 3 ypc is a pretty substantial drop. Beanie@LSU was similar: 7.3 mean ypc down to 3 median ypc. It's not as though that's a huge slam on the guys; it means that fully 50% of their runs went for more than 3 YPC. I'm not accustomed to thinking about rushing statistics in medians, but that doesn't seem all that bad to me. For some perspective, Beanie had a median ypc of 4.0 for the entire season. I don't have the season numbers on Mendenhall and don't plan to, either, sorry.

Just looking over Beanie's numbers in a little more depth, it becomes obvious which games featured strings of long runs that skewed the means. The numbers really line up with my recollection of the games (which is a good thing for a lot of reasons, really). Michigan state has a mean-median differential of 3.19, Akron has a mean-median differential of 2.8, and LSU has a mean-median differential of 4.3. All three of those games had a one or more of really long runs and a lot of shorter runs. Just as a rule of thumb, I'd say that anything over 2 shows signs of being somewhat skewed by long runs. In those cases I'd take the median over the mean (frankly, I'd take the median in all cases, but especially in those cases).

I don't mean this as a value judgment on the guy, either. Mendenhall, despite a lowish median YPC, had a huge game against USC. They really had trouble containing him. If Illinois had any semblance of a balanced offense, they may have given USC some trouble. The same goes for Beanie@LSU: turnovers and sacks unbalanced the offensive and got everything out of whack. It's hard to move the ball efficiently when you have no balance and you're playing from behind - doubly so against a strong team playing at home, like LSU.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

and arguably the most freakish defender in CFB.

Carlos Dunlap from Florida is going to give him a run for his money.

 

[jwinslow]

Carlos Dunlap from Florida is going to give him a run for his money.

Perhaps, but Mays is a much more established commodity thus far.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

Perhaps, but Mays is a much more established commodity thus far.

Oh, I know. I meant I am predicting Dunlap will give him a run for his money this year.

 

[Yertle]

I know it's early projections, but 8 of the top 20 picks will be in the same game on September 13th. DAMN!

 

[BuckeyeGanoosh]

Thanks. I've got the season's data for Boeckman and Beanie tabulated now (although I can't figure out why my directly transcribed numbers from game logs don't always agree with the 'official' statistical sums given by the ncaa).

Thats no surprise, but I wonder why their math is off.

At any rate, I agree in principle with your point. The median usually pulls down the numbers by a bit, mostly because it's far more likely to see a huge gain than a huge loss (have you ever witnessed a 65 yard run? I have. I've never seen a 65 yard loss, though).

Exactly. I'm not talking chaos theory here, but you drill down deep enough, it starts feeling a little like it...so many variables.

I don't mean this as a value judgment on the guy, either. Mendenhall, despite a lowish median YPC, had a huge game against USC. They really had trouble containing him. If Illinois had any semblance of a balanced offense, they may have given USC some trouble. The same goes for Beanie@LSU: turnovers and sacks unbalanced the offensive and got everything out of whack. It's hard to move the ball efficiently when you have no balance and you're playing from behind - doubly so against a strong team playing at home, like LSU.

OSU has enough offensive weapons to really mix up an offensive attack, and should still be able to rely on Beanie for consistent gain. What will be interesting to see is how they develop a running QB in various looks, not to mention a 4 wide with Beanie in the backfield. Liking our chances if Boeckman doesn't deer eye in the face of pressure.

For the most part of last year, he was a great pocket passer.

 

[BuckeyeGanoosh]

I know it's early projections, but 8 of the top 20 picks will be in the same game on September 13th. DAMN!

No doubt. Another story line could be how many award winners are in this game as well. We could easily see Heisman, Butkus (back to namesake), Thorpe, Nagurski, etc, etc, etc.....

The hype will be ludicrous.

 

[troy#1]

No doubt. Another story line could be how many award winners are in this game as well. We could easily see Heisman, Butkus (back to namesake), Thorpe, Nagurski, etc, etc, etc.....

The hype will be ludicrous.

This will easily be the biggest regular season ooc game of the year, bar none!:)

 

[Buckeneye]

You have arguably the two greatest coaches in college football, the two most consistent squads of the decade and neither have met in a generation.

You have Heisman frontrunner's, championship contenders, All-American's and 1st round picks at every turn.

Actually, this will be your biggest regular season games since 06' tOSU and scUM.

 

[Crashcup]

This is going to be THEE game of the year this year for many reasons but not because I am a Buckeye fan or an SC fan.

The stars have aligned and any school could only wish to get the amount of notariety that will befall these 2 schools this year.

Say what you'd like about the so-called creme puffs on OSU's schedule. YSU, Akron, OU and KSU. But it's not about that. It's about helping your in-state schools make some serious moolah for their respective athletic departments.

You can't tell me that when say Nebraska schedules a Pacific...nowhere close!

 

[generaladm]

Given that our last few "Games of the Century" have been classics (Okay, Texas 06 wasn't even as close as the score), I get the feeling that this one may top them all. I'm just glad that our guys have been in enough big games to not get distracted by the hype.