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Official Statistical Analysis Thread

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DaddyBigBucks;954410; said:
It's still a bit early to draw conclusions other than "Illinois MIGHT be the 2nd best team in the Big 10".

I don't know if I'll get a chance to update the numbers this week.

If the numbers still look like this after the MSU game, then we can surmise that Illinois is the 2nd best team in the conference. Whether they will be the toughest test is a different question. We have them at home, and we don't yet know how we match up with a team with a good running game and not much passing ability.

There is also the issue of Illinois immediately preceding The Game.
Click to expand...

But to balance that out, its SR day/last home game in the Shoe. I don't think complacency will be an issue.

I will await the stats but I think I've seen enough so far this year to confidently say Illinois is the 2nd best team in the B10 right now.

Not sure who else you could even make a case for? Tsun? That will be settled very soon by a night game @ Illinois. Matchup NIGHTMARE for the AA gals.
 
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Jaxbuck;954444; said:
But to balance that out, its SR day/last home game in the Shoe. I don't think complacency will be an issue.
Click to expand...

Good point. If a share of the B10 title is on the line, the atmosphere will be intense. The players will be jacked and the crowd, realizing that this is their last chance to see their Big 10 (at least) Champion Buckeyes, will bring the noise all game long.

Jax said:
I will await the stats but I think I've seen enough so far this year to confidently say Illinois is the 2nd best team in the B10 right now.

Not sure who else you could even make a case for? Tsun? That will be settled very soon by a night game @ Illinois. Matchup NIGHTMARE for the AA gals.
Click to expand...

What? It's not like they have any similarities to the teams that have spread 'em and shred 'em.

Vince Young
Troy Smith
Armanti Edwards(Hiney' reminded me of the name)
Dennis? Dixon
.
.
.
Juice Williams


um, nevermind
 
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DSA

For a definition of DSC (and last week's top 30): LINK

Rank_____School_____________DSC
1_________LSU_______________5.383
2_________Ohio St.__________4.661
3_________Oklahoma__________3.303
4_________Kansas____________2.911
5_________South Fla.________2.504
6_________Florida___________2.500
7_________Auburn____________2.208
8_________Cincinnati________2.184
9_________Arizona St._______2.168
10________West Virginia_____2.137
11________South Carolina____2.098
12________Missouri__________2.054
13________Connecticut_______1.995
14________Kansas St.________1.989
15________Colorado__________1.955
16________Illinois__________1.866
17________Rutgers___________1.852
18________Texas_____________1.840
19________Oregon____________1.830
20________California________1.815
21________Kentucky__________1.789
22________Penn St.__________1.784
23________USC_______________1.581
24________Arkansas__________1.558
25________Texas Tech________1.503
26________Alabama___________1.501
27________Boise St._________1.418
28________Washington________1.405
29________Wisconsin_________1.403
30________Michigan__________1.403
31________Florida St._______1.384
32________Georgia Tech______1.374
33________Georgia___________1.373
34________Purdue____________1.372
35________Boston College____1.362
.
.
.
100_______Kent State________0.556
 
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The reason I included 35 teams this week instead of 30 is that the #5 team in the country is #35 in DSC.

I find this interesting, because everywhere you hear that "BC might deserve a top-5 ranking, but South Florida certainly doesn't".

I might even go along with this to a point. BC has a very good QB, and USF has a QB that almost lost them the game against Florida Atlantic.

But BC is the team that comes in a spot below Purdue in DSC.

The fact that so many teams have played poorly a time or two and lost games they shouldn't have is probably skewing this year's DSC results somewhat. It will be interesting to see how the top 30 (35) changes over the next 6 weeks.
 
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As some of our upcoming opponents played very poorly early in the year and have improved markedly since (that's the nicest way I could think of to mention Appy State); it should be interesting to track how our upcoming opponents' statistics change from week to week.

To that end, here are the offensive statistics (and OSU's) for the remaining opponents of the 2007 season:

Team_______SO______TO_______DSO______DTO
OSU______32.80___416.00_____1.09_____0.95
Kent_____21.80___411.20_____0.71_____0.99
MSU______34.33___451.83_____1.14_____1.22
PSU______31.83___403.83_____1.25_____1.10
Wisc_____28.40___423.60_____1.19_____1.16
Ill______32.00___415.00_____1.44_____1.12
scUM_____24.00___383.80_____0.92_____1.09



Where:
SO = Scoring Offense​

TO = Total Offense​

DSO = Differential Scoring Offense​

DTO = Differential Total Offense​

​
Who among you would have bet that:
  • OSU has a lower DTO than any remaining opponent
    • DTO is a measure of how well a team has produced yards compared to other teams their opponents have played
  • scUM has the lowest number in every metric of our remaining conference opponents
    • OK, that one isn't surprising
More things that aren't surprising:
  • Our remaining conference opponents all have good, but not great offenses.
  • While MSU has produced the most points against I-A competition, Illinois has produced by far the best DSO.
  • Because they are primarily a running team, Illinois' stout DSO does not translate into an equally impressive raw DTO
But the next post should illuminate why...
 
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Rushing and Passing

The last post was about Total Offense and Scoring Offense.

As our upcoming opponents all seem to be 'run first' teams, I thought it might be interesting to break this out; run vs. pass.


Team_______RO_________DRO________PO________DPO
OSU______216.20______1.30______199.80______0.73
Kent______236.40______1.31______174.80______0.74
MSU______221.83______1.37______230.00______1.10
PSU______179.50______1.20______224.33______1.03
Wisc_____179.80______1.51______243.80______0.99
Ill______258.00______2.07______157.00______0.64
scUM_____194.80______1.35______189.00______0.91



Where:
RO = Rushing Offense
DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
PO = Passing Offense
DPO = Differential Passing Offense
​

Surprising (to me anyway):
  • Only PSU has a lower DRO than Ohio State
  • Only Illinois has a lower DPO than Ohio State
IMHO, OSU has a low DRO and DPO because they have played the three worst pass defenses in the Big 10 and have insisted on running the ball right at them for the most part. Rather than attack their weakness, we have simply bludgeoned them to death, allowing our defense to smother them and make an average offensive output a blow-out. This has resulted in low passing numbers against bad passing offenses - a sure-fire recipe for a very low DPO. The low DRO comes from running when it is obvious we will run.

While I concede that our offense has issues, I firmly believe that the coaches are bringing this young offense along and teaching them through this process. Yes their are problems. But these problems are being worked out and I believe that we'll have a much better offense by the end of the year than we have now. Whether that is reflected in the numbers (except the win column) is beside the point.


Other things worth noting:
  • KSU seems very similar to us
    • That similarity may not be obvious on Saturday
  • Every single team we have left to play has a heavy run bias
    • Illinois!! 2.07-0.64!!
  • Illinois' DRO is second in the nation (Navy is 1st)
  • PSU is one of only 2 teams that both runs and passes for more yards than their opponents usually allow (DRO, DPO > 1)
    • This is more of an artifact of the horrible schedules of their opponents - This analysis compares them to worse teams than most anyone else is compared to...
    • I don't care what the numbers say, Morelli sucks
  • Our rushing defense will be tested, but I like our chances. I think that having 6 straight run-oriented teams to end the year is a good match-up for the Buckeyes.
 
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Dominating Defense

Someone breakout a thesaurus and try to find a word that adequately describes the supremacy that is the Ohio State Defense. I've got nothin'


Team_______SD_____TD______DSD____DTD_______RD____DRD______PD_____DPD
OSU_______7.40___216.80___0.23___0.52____38.80___0.24___178.00___0.70
Kent_____28.40___361.00___1.28___1.05___149.20___1.19___211.80___0.97
MSU______24.50___355.83___1.18___1.05___114.67___1.17___241.17___1.00
PSU______13.67___253.17___0.70___0.81____80.50___0.57___172.67___1.01
Wisc_____22.40___367.20___0.85___0.92___158.80___0.91___208.40___0.92
Ill______24.00___411.60___0.77___1.03___104.60___0.63___307.00___1.31
scUM_____17.20___338.80___0.65___0.95___137.80___0.99___201.00___0.93


Where:
SD = Scoring Defense
TD = Total Defense
DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
DTD = Differential Total Defense
RD = Rushing Defense
DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
PD = Passing Defense
DPD = Differential Passing Defense
​
Um... wow

That is "Shut up and give me your lunch money" defense...

The Differential Rushing Defense is better than 2005, which was the best for any Div. I-A team of this young century.

It remains to be seen if it will stay that good through the remainder of the schedule. Either way, it is certainly going to be fun to watch.
 
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Tough Games Ahead

DSC and DYC for Ohio State and remaining opponents...


Team_____DSC_______DYC
OSU_____4.661_____1.832
Kent____0.556_____0.939
MSU_____0.968_____1.159
PSU_____1.784_____1.361
Wisc____1.403_____1.266
Ill_____1.866_____1.090
scUM____1.403_____1.149


Where:
DSC = Differential Scoring Composite (DSO/DSD)
DYC = Differential Yardage Composite (DTO/DTD)
​
While Illinois does indeed appear to be the best team left on the schedule, PSU is suprisingly close: Close enough that the game being at Happy Valley at Night might make it the toughest game remaining.


I only have 8 words for Kent State:
Cut your engines and prepare to be boarded!

​
 
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Best Buckeye;957788; said:
This one fits DBB. 至高
Click to expand...

Is that Chinese for, "Woe to you oh earth and sea. For the Tressel sends the beast with wrath because he knows the time is short. Let him who hath understanding reckon the number of the beast; for it is a human number. The beast can be found wearing number 33 in scarlet."
 
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DaddyBigBucks;959152; said:
Is that Chinese for, "Woe to you oh earth and sea. For the Tressel sends the beast with wrath because he knows the time is short. Let him who hath understanding reckon the number of the beast; for it is a human number. The beast can be found wearing number 33 in scarlet."
Click to expand...
Wow DBB you not only read and understand chinese but also the correct dialect. :yow1:






.actually it is the chinese word for supremacy :tongue2:
 
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muffler dragon;960216; said:
I look forward to the DSC for this week.
Click to expand...

As well you should. OSU is not only the new number one in the polls and number one in the BCS. They are number one in DSC.


Name____________DSC______rk_______DYC______rk
Ohio St._______5.018______1______1.807______3
Michigan St.___1.150_____43______1.264_____26
Penn St._______2.258______9______1.393_____14
Wisconsin______1.171_____42______1.226_____33
Illinois_______1.502_____25______0.999_____55
Michigan_______1.806_____19______1.226_____32




Where:
DSC = Differential Scoring Composite (DSO/DSD)
DYC = Differential Yardage Composite (DTO/DTD)
​

Notes:
  • MSU, PSU and Michigan are improving
    • They played at home, so it is not necessarily surprising that their numbers improved
    • But home (theirs) is where PSU and TSUN play OSU. Both schools are playing much better than they did earlier in the year.
    • MSU is a tougher test than some people think
  • Wisky and Illi are going in the wrong direction
    • They played on the road, so it is not entirely surprising that their numbers deteriorated
    • But on the road (the 'Shoe) is where they play us
  • That is a much tougher slate of 5 games than we will get credit for
    • SFW: If we win, we're in
 
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Top 47 in Week 7 -- DSC

In the interest of including the entire "Top 3" in the DSC rankings, I have included the Top 47 this week (as opposed to the Top 35 last week). I guess beating ND by a couple scores doesn't mean what it used to.


Rank___School_______________DSC
1______Ohio St._____________5.018
2______LSU__________________3.627
3______Kansas_______________3.514
4______Oklahoma_____________3.137
5______South Fla.___________3.110
6______Kansas St.___________2.387
7______Florida______________2.350
8______West Virginia________2.278
9______Penn St._____________2.258
10_____Boise St.____________2.200
11_____Auburn_______________2.123
12_____Cincinnati___________2.091
13_____Arizona St.__________2.041
14_____Oregon_______________2.023
15_____Texas________________2.016
16_____Missouri_____________2.009
17_____Kentucky_____________1.925
18_____Connecticut__________1.863
19_____Michigan_____________1.806
20_____Texas Tech___________1.755
21_____Arkansas_____________1.683
22_____South Carolina_______1.681
23_____Rutgers______________1.609
24_____California___________1.575
25_____Illinois_____________1.502
26_____Washington___________1.482
27_____Virginia Tech________1.462
28_____Oklahoma St._________1.438
29_____Colorado_____________1.438
30_____Georgia______________1.406
31_____Southern California__1.398
32_____Georgia Tech_________1.378
33_____Tennessee____________1.361
34_____BYU__________________1.321
35_____Alabama______________1.290
36_____Florida St.__________1.261
37_____Central Mich.________1.248
38_____Purdue_______________1.232
39_____Oregon St.___________1.212
40_____Virginia_____________1.206
41_____Texas A&M____________1.191
42_____Wisconsin____________1.171
43_____Michigan St._________1.150
44_____Air Force____________1.146
45_____Indiana______________1.137
46_____Maryland_____________1.130
47_____Boston College_______1.129
 
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