If Iowa doesn't win this one and we beat Penn State...then the Iowa game becomes our Rose Bowl play in game. Michigan game wouldn't matter as far as the Rose Bowl is concerned, because even if we lost that one and had 2 Big Ten losses, we would tie for 1st with Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin. But since we would have beaten all 3 of them, we'd win the tiebreaker to go to the Rose Bowl.
Personally, I hope Iowa wins this game, because I'm hoping we beat Michigan either way and I'd rather Iowa still be ranked in the top 5 when we play them next week. But Iowa is struggling on offense. 3 turnovers already.