New Conference Possibilities

[Bucklion]

I could definitely see the MWC pulling Fresno and Boise out of the WAC. San Diego State might drop their football program in the near future. I could also see the MWC pulling a couple teams out of CUSA as well. Houston and Rice being two top candidates. Houston has shown that it can consistently make bowl games and the Rice football team has done well in recent years. Both teams would also help the conference in baseball, which is arguably it's weakest sport. Rice has one of the top baseball programs in the country. Houston has made 6 NCAA tournament appearances this decade. Adding Fresno, who is the reigning NCAA D1 champion in baseball, would also be huge. If SDSU leaves and you add those four schools, you've got 12 teams. You get the football championship game. Also those teams probably put the MWC above the Big East and possibly the ACC in football. The PAC 10 is up and down all the time so it's hard to say if it would be a consistently better conference.

Also a good point. CUSA has been a huge disappointment, though I think Tulsa would warrant some thought for a Super-mid-major conference too, given their recent football success and their history of basketball success.

 

[Piney]

I think this idea has been brought up before on ESPN. I recall them stating that either Fresno St or Boise St (or both) have been trying to get into the MWEST for a few years.

So really a merger of the conferences won't happen, but I can see the Mountain West canibalize the WAC and maybe another conference (CUSA to grab a Tulsa). The MWEST is set up for this with their own regional network so they can be an attractive conference and to add 3 great/very good mid-major teams would make the network that much more viable to sell to more markets as Fresno would bring in the Northern California TV markets into play.

As the MWEST has 9 teams already all they need is 3 more. The perfect 3 would be Fresno St, Boise St and Nevada and then be done.

Of course then it kills the WAC. But then again if the MWEST teams left the WAC because it was too big, maybe they will reject the idea of going to 12 teams because it would be too big as 9 teams is a pretty nice setup for a true round robin and to allow your teams 4 non-conference games.

 

[Bucklion]

I think the only way they would seriously try and fuck up the landscape that much is if they were guaranteed a BCS bid if they did so. No BCS bid, and the teams might as well stay where they are because they have a better chance of hitting the BCS by running the table in more watered-down conferences.

 

[FWBuckeye]

Also a good point. CUSA has been a huge disappointment, though I think Tulsa would warrant some thought for a Super-mid-major conference too, given their recent football success and their history of basketball success.

I would definitely like to see them dump Wyoming and bring in Tulsa, combined with my other scenario. Wyoming has had mild success in women's basketball and that's about it. Unfortunately, I doubt they would ever drop a charter member of the conference, despite how useless the school is.

 

[Bucklion]

I would definitely like to see them dump Wyoming and bring in Tulsa, combined with my other scenario. Wyoming has had mild success in women's basketball and that's about it. Unfortunately, I doubt they would ever drop a charter member of the conference, despite how useless the school is.

Well they can beat Tennessee

The problem is a lot of these schools have a few good years when a coach Wyoming [(Tiller) and Hawaii (Jones)] or player [SDSU (Faulk)] is there, and they quickly fall by the wayside.

 

[FWBuckeye]

I think ultimately there will be an additional BCS game in the future, probably the Cotton Bowl since it will be played at the new Dallas Cowboys stadium starting Jan 1 2010. The only reason it wasn't an original BCS bowl is because the stadium was a piece of shit. If that happens, I expect them to add another auto bid conference and it will likely be the MWC. Instead of the Big 12 champ getting a Fiesta Bowl berth, it would get a Cotton Bowl spot since it was traditionally a Big 8 vs Southwest Conference showdown before the merger into the Big 12. The MWC would then get the Fiesta Bowl spot. It's geographically in a great location for that conference. I could definitely see this scenario playing out.

 

[Piney]

I think the only way they would seriously try and fuck up the landscape that much is if they were guaranteed a BCS bid if they did so. No BCS bid, and the teams might as well stay where they are because they have a better chance of hitting the BCS by running the table in more watered-down conferences.

The BCS does a 3-4 year average of BCS rankings right? So it will take 3-4 years of the MWest finishing up in the top 15 to be able to consider taking over for the ACC.

Yep... I said the ACC. Using the 3-4 year average formula the Big East is surprisingly fine in that regards due to West Virginia's high finishes in the past few years. (and I recall the last time it was mentioned the Virginia Tech & Miami's high finishes were still on the books)

But where has the highest ACC teams been ranked the past few years? Last year Wake was in the mid teens right? This year their champion might be in the 20s. So really of the two conferences the ACC would be in more danger of losing their automatic bid to the Mountain West if they can have a few years straight of high BCS finishes.

If I wasn't halfway out the door here at work I would double check the recent finishes in the past 2-3 years of BCS formulas... might do that tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it.

 

[BB73]

Here are the BCS rankings for each conference's automatic bid:

Year....Big East...ACC........Big 10.....Big 12.....Pac 10....SEC........Mtn West
2004....Pitt(21)...VT..(08)...TSUN(13)...Okla(02)...USC(01)...Aub.(03)...Utah(06)
2005....WVU.(11)...FSU.(22)...PSU.(03)...Tex.(02)...USC(01)...UGA.(07)...xxxx(xx)
2006....Louv(06)...Wake(14)...tOSU(01)...Okla(10)...USC(05)...Fla.(02)...xxxx(xx)
2007....WVU.(09)...VT..(03)...tOSU(01)...Okla(04)...USC(07)...LSU.(02)...xxxx(xx)

4-yr Avg (12.25)....(12.25)......(4.5)......(4.5).....(3.5)......(3.5)...


Note - in 2004, Louisville was 10th, but they were still in Conf-USA. Iowa was 12th, but TSUN got the auto-bid.
Note - in 2005, Miami was 8th, but FSU got the auto bid

Here are the BCS rankings for each conference's highest ranked team:

Year....Big East...ACC........Big 10.....Big 12.....Pac 10....SEC........Mtn West
2004....Pitt(21)...VT..(08)...Iowa(12)...Okla(02)...USC(01)...Aub.(03)...Utah(06)
2005....WVU.(11)...Mia.(08)...PSU.(03)...Tex.(02)...USC(01)...UGA.(07)...TCU.(14)
2006....Louv(06)...Wake(14)...tOSU(01)...Okla(10)...USC(05)...Fla.(02)...BYU.(20)
2007....WVU.(09)...VT..(03)...tOSU(01)...Okla(04)...USC(07)...LSU.(02)...BYU.(17)

4-yr Avg (12.25).....(8.25).....(4.25)......(4.5).....(3.5)......(3.5)....(14.25)