NCAA Bracketology (2/13 Edition)

[BretGoBlue]

All Information is from the poster MSUStudent of the Michigan Rivals board.

Less than a month left in the regular season, we finally have some changes in this edition.

Once again, teams with the top winning conference percentage are given the automatic bids for the sake of this bracketology.

Autobids

Atlantic: Sacred Heart
CCHA: Michigan
CHA: Bemidji State
ECAC: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston College
WCHA: Denver U.

PairWise Rankings (Top 16, Non-bonus)

1. Denver U
2. Colorado College
3. Boston College
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Cornell
7. Wisconsin
8. Ohio State
9. Harvard
10. Boston U
11. North Dakota
12. New Hampshire
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Northern Michigan
15. Colgate
16(t-3 teams). Maine, Dartmouth, Michigan State

PairWise Rankings (Top 16, with all auto-bids, 3-2-1 bonus)

1. Denver U
2. Colorado College
3. Boston College
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Cornell
7. Harvard
8. Wisconsin
9. North Dakota
10. Boston U
11. Ohio State
12. New Hampshire
13. UMass-Lowell
14. North Dakota
15. Bemidji State (auto, CHA Champ)
16. Sacred Heart (auto, Atlantic Champ)


We do have a match-up problem with Wisconsin as the #8 and North Dakota as the #9.

The first thing we need to do is see which team would be easier to move. The other #2 seeds are Harvard, Cornell, and Michigan. Since Wisconsin is going to end up in Grand Rapids, we want to look at the idea of swapping Michigan for Wisconsin to help attendance and get rid of the match-up problem. The only issue here is swapping a #5 team for a #8 team might be too much of a difference, and it would be punishing the #1 seed in the PWR.

As a result, I don't think that switch would be made, since Wiscy is still close enough to Grand Rapids. Also, I don't see them swapping Wiscy out for an eastern team, so I don't think the #2 seeds will be moved.

So, what about the #3 seeds? Boston U is hosting, so that takes them out of the picture. That leaves us with either Ohio State or New Hampshire. In a perfect situation, UNH would be out east, and OSU would be in the west. Also, Columbus is close enough to Grand Rapids, that it might help peak attandance.

What about the seeds though? If we swap UNH with Ohio State to move UNH in the eastern regionals and OSU to the west, it really isn't that different since we just switched an 11 and 12 seed.

Now if we move Ohio State into Grand Rapids with North Dakota going to the Minneapolis regional, we have a better attendance chance in GR, and we've only swapped a 9 for an 11 which isn't that bad of a change.

Is someone getting punished? Sure. Michigan, which would have been playing the worst #3 seed is now playing the best. However, the only teams that really get the consideration for easy match-ups are the #1 seeds.

Could they switch Wisconsin and Michigan and be done with it? They could. However, I believe the above situation would be more likely.

As a result, we get the following pairings:

(overall record, PWR rank w/ 3-2-1 bonus given)

East (Worcester, Mass. Host: Boston U)
1. Colorado College (#2, 24-5-3)
2. Harvard (t-#7, 15-6-2)
3. Boston U (t-#10, 17-10-2)
4. Bemidji St. (t-#24, 18-9-1) *auto*

Northeast (Amherst, Mass. Host: UMass.)
1. Boston College (#3, 18-4-5) *auto*
2. Cornell (#6, 18-4-3) *auto*
3. New Hampshire (#12, 20-7-3)
4. Northern Michigan (t-#13, 15-9-6)

Midwest (Grand Rapids, Mich. Host: Western Michigan)
1. Denver U (#1, 21-6-2) *auto*
2. Wisconsin (t-#7, 20-8-2)
3. Ohio State (t-#10, 22-7-3)
4. Sacred Heart (UNR, 12-15-1) *auto*


West (Minneapolis, Minn. Host: Minnesota)
1. Minnesota (#4, 20-12-1)
2. Michigan (#5, 22-7-3) *auto*
3. North Dakota (#9, 15-12-3)
4. UMass-Lowell (t-#13, 16-7-4)

Last 2 In: UMass-Lowell, Northern Michigan
First 2 Out: Colgate, Maine

Bids by Conference:

WCHA: 5
Hockey East: 4
CCHA: 3
ECAC: 2
Atlantic: 1
CHA: 1

Upcoming weekend Key Series:

Ohio State at Michigan State: Ohio State is starting to make their way up the PWR, but any setbacks this upcoming weekend could damage their NCAA at-large hopes. Michigan State is hanging on by a thread, and if they managed to sweep the Buckeyes, the Spartans would be right back in the thick of things for the NCAA.

Other Series of Note:

Hockey East: UMass-Lowell vs. Boston College (home & home)
WCHA: Colorado College at Wisconsin
CHA: Alabama-Huntsville at Bemidji State (first place on the line in the CHA)

 

[LightningRod]

Huge weekend coming up for the Puck Bucks. Thanks for the info.

 

[MiniBusBuck]

The main worry is the only 2 teams (besides meechigan) that have given OSU problems the last few years are UNO (who we already played) and MSU. last year MSU came into the Schott and just punked the Bucks twice. This years team is definitly different but historically MSU has been a stumbling block the last few seasons.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

a ccha championship means an auto bid i believe. (though this year rick james will not buy all the drinks for the boys)

 

[BretGoBlue]

Correct on the automatic bid

The CCHA Tournament Champion is automatically invited to the tournament. Since they haven't played the tournament however, they just selected the #1 team in each conference for now.

Obviously there will be some upsets and things will get shaken up a bit during the conference tournament.

What amazes me is that Minnesota is ranked so high in the pairwise rankings. They have dropped to #10 in both regular polls and have been on an unbelievable tail spin for the past four weekends.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

i agree, though im not gonna get my panties in a bunch, granted a terrible showing by either school in the tourney they both should be in. pretty much garunteed a tough draw with only 16 teams in it. it would suck to be in denvers or cc's bracket, but thats the way the cookie crumbles.

minnesota is one of those legendary programs some how always keeps their mystique-but i agree they seemed overranked the way they are playing (granted i do not follow it as closely as you nor claim too)

 

[BretGoBlue]

It's definitely a hard situation to read

And if I were you guys I would worry a little bit about being left out which sucks for the CCHA.

IMO you are clearly worthy of an invitation but your 3-2-1 bonus pairwise ranking still isn't the most impressive. Your being hurt by your non-conference schedule and the fact that you got put into a very poor cluster this year for the CCHA.

If you split with MSU and then get upset in the first round of the CCHA tourny (Not very likely but could happen) then I'd really be worried about your tournament status. Fortunately your coach is building a much stronger team and I think in the next few years your non-conference schedule will become more competitive.

What really chaps my ass though is that Minnesota is 4-7-1 in their last 12 games (with 7 of the games at home) and they are still climbing in the pairwise rankings.

The CCHA REALLY needs a third team to step up and become a perenial top 10 team.