MLB/MiLB Relegation Proposal

[mross34]

I've seen some stuff around the internet about adopting an EPL style structure for baseball, but I was curious about how it would actually work. I spent some time throwing together a general idea of how it would work and I thought I would share.

First off, I thought 30 teams was a little too big, and all leagues would benefit greatly from 24 being the determined size for at least the top 3 leagues.

To pick the teams that would be initially dropped down to the 2nd best team, I used a formula. I took the average number of wins and home attendance for every team from the past three years as two factors. The third factor was the number of people in that cities metropolitan area divided by the number of teams in that metropolitan area. For each of these three factors, I gave a score out of 1. If the best team averaged 100 wins per season and the worst team averaged 50 wins per season, the best team would receive a 1.0, the worst team would receive 0.0, a team with 75 wins would receive 0.5, a team with 80 wins would receive 0.6, and so forth. I then averaged these 3 factors, and ranked the teams. The following are the results:

Team ? Wins ? Market ? Gate ? Total
NYY ? 0.95 ? 1.00 ? 1.00 ? 0.98
NYM ? 0.56 ? 1.00 ? 0.86 ? 0.81
LAA ? 1.00 ? 0.61 ? 0.71 ? 0.77
LAD ? 0.70 ? 0.61 ? 0.89 ? 0.73
PHL ? 0.83 ? 0.56 ? 0.74 ? 0.71
BOS ? 0.95 ? 0.38 ? 0.61 ? 0.65
CHC ? 0.74 ? 0.41 ? 0.68 ? 0.61
STL ? 0.64 ? 0.15 ? 0.76 ? 0.52
DET ? 0.57 ? 0.35 ? 0.57 ? 0.50
HOU ? 0.42 ? 0.54 ? 0.51 ? 0.49
ATL ? 0.51 ? 0.49 ? 0.43 ? 0.48
TEX ? 0.50 ? 0.61 ? 0.30 ? 0.47
CHW ? 0.49 ? 0.41 ? 0.39 ? 0.43
MIL ? 0.62 ? 0.00 ? 0.59 ? 0.40
COL ? 0.65 ? 0.13 ? 0.43 ? 0.40
ARZ ? 0.51 ? 0.35 ? 0.34 ? 0.40
MIN ? 0.63 ? 0.22 ? 0.34 ? 0.40
TOR ? 0.36 ? 0.44 ? 0.30 ? 0.37
SF ? 0.40 ? 0.08 ? 0.59 ? 0.36
SEA ? 0.43 ? 0.23 ? 0.37 ? 0.34
FLA ? 0.51 ? 0.49 ? 0.00 ? 0.33
TB ? 0.73 ? 0.14 ? 0.10 ? 0.32
SD ? 0.36 ? 0.19 ? 0.36 ? 0.30
CLE ? 0.51 ? 0.06 ? 0.26 ? 0.28
WAS ? 0.00 ? 0.49 ? 0.24 ? 0.24
CIN ? 0.33 ? 0.08 ? 0.20 ? 0.20
OAK ? 0.35 ? 0.08 ? 0.09 ? 0.17
BAL ? 0.10 ? 0.14 ? 0.23 ? 0.16
KC ? 0.28 ? 0.06 ? 0.10 ? 0.15
PIT ? 0.06 ? 0.10 ? 0.09 ? 0.08

Washington, Cincinnati, Oakland, Baltimore, KC, and Pittsburgh would be the 6 teams relegated. Coincidentally, these are the 6 teams with the lowest win totals as well.

Under my proposal, 40 man rosters would be expanded to 50 players. Teams would either field a B/youth team that would either play primarily in the afternoon, or they could set aside certain leagues (Rookie, FSL, Mexico) as a developmental/rehabilitation league.

Each major league team would get to pick 50 players for their rosters from their respective system. The remainder of the players would be entered into a draft, where teams assigned to the 2nd tier league would fill out their rosters next, then teams assigned to the 3rd tier league, then 4th tier, and so forth.

Out of curiosity, I set up what the top 3 leagues might look like. I didn't move any teams up or down more than one league. Here's what I came up with:

Premier League
NYY
NYM
LAA
LAD
PHL
BOS
CHC
STL
DET
HOU
ATL
TEX
CHW
MIL
COL
ARZ
MIN
TOR
SF
SEA
FLA
TB
SD
CLE

Elite League - 2nd Tier - 6 demoted MLB clubs, 18 largest AAA markets
Nationals
Reds
A's
O's
Royals
Pirates
Columbus Clippers (Stadium Capacity - 10k, Metro Population - 1.8 mil)
Buffalo Bison (Capacity 18k, Metro 1.1 mil)
Charlotte Knights (Capacity 10k, Metro 1.7 mil)
Durham Bulls (Capacity 10k, Metro 1.1 mil)
Indianapolis (Formerly Indians) (Capacity 12.5 k, Metro 1.7 mil)
Louisville Bats (Capacity 13.1 k, Metro 1.3 mil)
New Orleans Zephyrs (Capacity 10k, Metro 1.2 mil)
Nashville Sounds (Capacity 10.1k, Metro 1.6 mil)
Norfolk Tides (Capacity 12.1k, Metro 1.7 mil)
Oklahoma City RedHawks (Capacity 13.1k, Metro 1.2 mil)
Memphis Red Birds (Capacity 14.3k, Metro 1.3 mil)
Las Vegas 51s (Capacity 9.3k, Metro 1.9 mil)
Pawtucket (Providence, RI) (Formerly Red Sox) (Capacity 11.8k, Metro 1.6 mil)
Portland Beavers (Capacity 19.6k, Metro 2.2 mil)
Round Rock (Austin, TX) Express (Capacity 11.7k, Metro 1.7 mil)
Salt Lake Bees (Capacity 15.5k, Metro 1.1 mil)
Sacramento River Cats (Capacity 14.1k, Metro 2.1 mil)
San Juan (Puerto Rico) Expansion Team (Capacity 18k, Metro 2.5 mil)

3rd Tier - AAA Remnants and High Potential AA Markets
Coming from AAA
Gwinnett
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Rochester Red Wings
Scranton W-B
Toledo Mud Hens
Albuquerque Isotopes
Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Fresno Grizzlies
Iowa
Omaha
Reno Aces
Tacoma Rainiers
Coming from AA
Richmond, VA
Trenton (Central, NJ)
Arkansas (Little Rock, AR) Travelers
Akron, OH
Birmingham, AL
Chattanooga, TN
Harrisburg, PA
Jacksonville, FL
Mississippi (Jackson, MS)
New Britain (Hartford, CT)
San Antonio, TX
Tulsa, OK

Some other lower level teams that could find their way moving upward quickly with a motivated owner:
San Jose
Brooklyn
Vancouver

If teams like Brooklyn, Trenton, Pawtucket, or Iowa get owners that are motivated to move the team upward and willing to invest in the team and expand the stadium, the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, etc. could feel the effects with a chunk of their fan base leaving for a more local team, and the disparity in payroll could shrink as a result.

To do this some things would have to change. In terms of gameplay, the divisions would likely be eliminated. Because of that, the current way the DH works would have to change. Either all teams would have to accept the DH, all teams would have to eliminate the DH, or home teams could pick whether or not they'd use a DH (by the season or permanently).

The player draft would likely be eliminated, and it would be beneficial if players could be transferred for sums of money, similar to European soccer.

In terms of relegation and promotion, I thought it would work best if 3 teams were relegated and 3 promoted between each league every year. Because Americans can't live without playoffs, 2 six team playoffs could be created in every league, one for promotion, and one for relegation.

In the promotion playoffs, the top-two seeds would receive first round byes. The winners between the #3-#6 seed series and would then face the #2 seed, and the #4-#5 series winner would fact the #1 seed. The winners of these semifinals would play in the championship and the losers would play a series for the final relegation spot.

It would work similarly for the relegation playoff. The #23 and #24 seeds would receive byes. The #22 and #19 seeds would face off and the #21 and #20 seed would as well. The loser of the #22-#19 series would face #24 seed and the loser of the other series would face the #23 seed. The losers of both of these series would be relegated. The winners would face off in a series where the loser would be relegated.

Under this system, half of all teams would be playing meaningful games during the playoffs. Its also likely that the majority of teams not participating in these tournaments would be battling very late into the season to either avoid the relegation tournament or gain entry into the promotion/championship tournament.

Just an idea I've been toying with. What are your guys thoughts?

 

[Dryden]

Just an idea I've been toying with. What are your guys thoughts?

A very interesting concept in theory that's way too complex and un-American in execution, so I imagine Bud Selig is 110% behind your proposal.

I can solve baseballs' problems in four words: Salary cap. Salary floor.

 

[jlb1705]

I've seen some stuff around the internet about adopting an EPL style structure for baseball, but I was curious about how it would actually work. I spent some time throwing together a general idea of how it would work and I thought I would share...

I think the relegation system is cool, but what does it do to solve MLB's biggest problems, namely financial and competitive imbalance? If we use the EPL as a case study, I think the answer is that it would probably exacerbate those issues. The EPL has been around since 1992. Only four clubs have won the league in that time, and one of them, Blackburn Rovers won it in the third season and haven't finished higher than 6th since then. Contrast that with MLB, where 10 different franchises have won the World Series at least once 1992.

Right now, the odds are stacked against lower-revenue teams, despite the relative parity I just referenced. Still, a team can beat those odds every once in a while (like the Marlins in 2003) if they can do a good job of drafting and developing inexpensive young talent. It seems to me that the transfer system would make those odds even longer.

 

[jlb1705]

A very interesting concept in theory that's way too complex and un-American in execution, so I imagine Bud Selig is 110% behind your proposal.

I can solve baseballs' problems in four words: Salary cap. Salary floor.

I'll add three more words: International Draft. Contraction.

 

[buckeyemania11]

The draft structure needs changing too, it's ridiculous that teams with high spending can pluck big talent in later rounds because they can pay the outrageous bonuses to keep these guys from going to or staying in college

 

[Mike80]

There's no way they'll ever demote the A's, the Orioles and the Reds. It just won't happen.

The MLB needs 2 things to occur:

1. Salary restructuring to create both a cap and a floor. That way teams like KC can't spend only 9 Million per year and teams like the Skankees (and that little bastard who stole the home run in the ALCS ) can't spend $200 million.

2. there has to be a viability index, i.e. if the team is going to go under water because of the salary floor, it should be allowed to go. Trust me that won't be the Orioles or the Royals in all likelihood, although Milwaukee, the A's and the Florida teams would be in deep shit if any kind of feasibility study were to occur.

 

[Jaxbuck]

What are your guys thoughts?

That you can have my Reds when you pry them from my cold dead fingers.

 

[Meyer]

That you can have my Reds when you pry them from my cold dead fingers.

Oh shit...I mistook your cold dead fingers for the cold dead team that is the Reds

 

[Class'13]

That you can have my Reds when you pry them from my cold dead fingers.

^Agreed.

Although I do find this funny as some guys on RZ were just talking about the Lousiville Bats replacing the Royals in the AL Central. The Bats have crazy talent this year. Legit prospects all around.