NOW THAT’S INTERESTING. This week, Pro Football Focus’ Dalton Wasserman and Max Chadwick previewed Ohio State vs. Minnesota.
Both analysts chose matchups to watch for the Big Ten battle, with Wasserman picking Drake Lindsey against the Buckeyes’ secondary and Chadwick picking Julian Sayin against the Gophers’ secondary. Chadwick’s selection interested me:
“Julian Sayin has been the most accurate quarterback in college football this year. He leads the nation with a 79 percent completion rate and also leads the nation with an 87 percent adjusted completion rate — your completion percentage plus the drops your receivers have, too,” Chadwick said. “It also helps, though, that he has an elite group of weapons to throw to: Jeremiah Smith, who is a legit Heisman candidate right now, and a potential first-round pick in this year’s draft, Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes are currently ninth in America with an 80.5 receiving grade this year. They always have an elite receiving corps. It’s no different this year.”
“But Minnesota is 20th in coverage grade, an 89.9. They excel in coverage while running man coverage at one of the highest rates in the country. They run man coverage over 43 percent of the time this year. That’s 13th in America. A vast majority of that — 35 percent — comes in Cover 1, which is man coverage across the board and one deep safety back there, usually Koi Perich.
“Julian Sayin has been far better against zone coverage than he has been against man coverage right now. A 58.2 passing grade against man coverage, 91.6 passing grade against zone coverage,” Chadwick said. “But I will say, it’s a very limited sample size for Julian Sayin against man coverage, and for Minnesota, playing man coverage across the board against those freaks at wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will present a much, much harder challenge than anything they’ve faced all year. And, also, the most accurate quarterback in the country in Julian Sayin, too. So, yes, Minnesota has been great in coverage and man coverage this year, but now you’re going against Ohio State with the most accurate quarterback in the country and just freaks across the board at wide receiver.”
I triple-dog dare Fleck and defensive coordinator Danny Collins to run Cover 1 against Ohio State. If they do, then Sayin, Smith and Tate will explode. If they don’t — and instead run some two-high variations — then Bo Jackson, CJ Donaldson and James Peoples will explode.
Pick your poison, Gophers.
P.J. Fleck praises Ryan Day and says the 2025 Buckeyes could be Day’s best team at Ohio State, and the Minnesota defense must pick its poison vs. Ohio State's offense.
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