Midseason Report Card

[Fungo Squiggly]

Dunn is one of the best young hitters in the game. He is an OPS machine, his lack of RBI is simply due to the fact the morons he plays for have him batting 6th or 7th and not 3rd every night. As far as the high K numbers I don't really care, an outs an out(except of course when the jackass Reds have MR. GIDP Casey hitting 3rd and he leads the universe in twin killings)

Put Dunn in the #3 hole for a season and you'll see R/BB/HR/RBI and OPS numbers to rival anyones. BA is just this side of defensive stats for worthlessness in my book.

I disagree. His lack of RBI is due in part to the fact that he strikes out so damn often. He went almost two years without a sac fly. And he's a freaking fly ball hitter. I'm so sick-and-freaking tired of seeing him take a called third strike at or below the knees. I don't care if it's a ball or a strike. The umpires are going to call it a strike, so get over it and swing the damn bat if it is close to the strike zone.

 

[Jaxbuck]

The number one job of a hitter is to not make an out.

OBP is the measurement for that and Dunn's career number is near .400 iirc.

The second most important thing after not making an out is to do some damage. SLG% is the measurement of that. The reason SLG is better than BA is the formula, BA gives all hits an equal value i.e. a single is worth as much as a home run. SLG gives more weight to more Total Bases.

When you add OBP and SLG you get OPS and anything over .900 OPS puts you in the elite group of hitters for your league and Dunn is in that group.

He is the 3 true outcome king, walk, K or HR. @ of the 3 are great and the K is an out like any other. Now I don't completely disregard situational hitting but I do not feel that missing a couple of sac flies a year outweighs the damage this man could inflict if he got the extra AB's a 3 hitter gets every year and all the extra RBI opportunities.

BTW here is a post from Redszone on the topic of RISP stats. I think its pretty relevent here for all those who base their opinion of Dunn on what Marty or Grande have to say.

1st job of a batter who comes up with ducks on the pond is to not make an out right?

OBP w/RISP
Dunn: .447
LaRue: .375
Casey: .367
Randa: .364
Griffey: .354

Now to me the 1st job is actually drive someone in, then second is to not make an out but I'm sure someone will rip me for that one so I'll call driving in a run job #2. The fairest way to measure is how many per AB not just raw RBI's because some get a ton more opportunities than others due to lineup failures.

RBI per AB w/RISP
Griffey: .512
Dunn: .446
Aurilia: .436
LaRue: .435
Pena: .423

3rd thing I feel is important is to see how much damage a hitter actually does in that situation i.e. I want a wall banger up there, not a banjo hitter.

SLG w/RISP
Griffey: .595
Pena: .577
Dunn: .523
Aurilia: .418
LaRue: .391


Now the argument that Reds broadcasters, and appearantly FO types as well, adhere to is that you don't want high strikeout hitters killing rally's by K'ing in this situation and I can see some merit to this but an outs an out and we have already seen who does the best job of not making an out(Dunn). The type of out that is NOT the same as any other out is the type that gets 2 men out with one swing or the infamous Ground into A Casey.

GIDP w/RISP
Casey: 9
Randa: 4
no one else with more than 3

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

Now the argument that Reds broadcasters, and appearantly FO types as well, adhere to is that you don't want high strikeout hitters killing rally's by K'ing in this situation and I can see some merit to this but an outs an out and we have already seen who does the best job of not making an out(Dunn). The type of out that is NOT the same as any other out is the type that gets 2 men out with one swing or the infamous Ground into A Casey

I see what your saying., but I still disagree to a certain extent. If he's batting sixth and knows that a weak part of the order is following him, I would like to see him take a couple of shots at getting a hit. If he walks to load the bases and bring up the seven hitter and the seven hitter makes an out, Dunn's at-bat is wasted. I guess, to some extent, I would rather see him take a shot at a borderline pitch and try to put it in play rather than walk to bring up a guy who probably will make an out. In this sense, a lot of my frustration stems from other player's struggles. I think I'm just fed up with the whole lot of them and he seems like a good whipping boy because he strikes out a lot. I guess I better find a new one. Good things there's no shortage, eh?

 

[Jaxbuck]

I see what your saying., but I still disagree to a certain extent. If he's batting sixth and knows that a weak part of the order is following him, I would like to see him take a couple of shots at getting a hit. If he walks to load the bases and bring up the seven hitter and the seven hitter makes an out, Dunn's at-bat is wasted. I guess, to some extent, I would rather see him take a shot at a borderline pitch and try to put it in play rather than walk to bring up a guy who probably will make an out. In this sense, a lot of my frustration stems from other player's struggles. I think I'm just fed up with the whole lot of them and he seems like a good whipping boy because he strikes out a lot. I guess I better find a new one. Good things there's no shortage, eh?

No shortage whatsoever. However, its all pretty much the FO when you get down to it.

I would encourage everyone to look into the whole SABER thing and look past the traditional BA/RBI view of baseball. Its really made me gain an appreciation for it that I never had before and like most people I was skeptical as hell at first. We are taught since little league that BA is how you measure a good hitter and that K's are the devil, but when you have an open mind and really look in-depth at it you find its simply not the case.


EDIT****

BTW Dunn walking the bases loaded and bringing up a weak hitter in you scenario is not Dunns fault. Its a shitty lineups fault. Put him in the 3 hole with some protection and the pitcher now has to pitch to Dunn because of his demonstrated ability to take BB. Thats more strikes seen, more AB's with a lot more RISP for Dunn over the course of a year and thats a very good thing for Reds fans.

Don't let the Reds stuck in the 70's small ball media fool you-Dunn is a misused gem.

 

[Sloopy45]

Jax: "Don't let the Reds stuck in the 70's small ball media fool you-Dunn is a misused gem."

I'm not disageeing with you about Dunn. I don't have enough knowledge about the topic to even pretend to muster an argument. But as far as your last point goes, lets face it: Small Ball wins in baseball nowadays. Period.

You may think the '04 Red Sox weren't a small ball team, but their philosiphy (sp?) is essentially small ball: make the pitchers throw a ton of pitches, get on base, wear down the pitcher, keep getting on base, & eventually the pitcher will tire when the line-up turns over to the big bats. Mark Bellhorn is in that line-up for one reason: he either strikes out, or walks. Nothing in-between. And that means, be it K or BB, that the pitcher is always throwing 4 to 5 to maybe even 10 pitches to Bellhorn each & every AB.

The '03 Marlins, '01 D-B's, & the '96-'98-'99-'00 Yanks were all 'Small Ball' teams too. That's 7 of the last 9 Champions.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Jax: "Don't let the Reds stuck in the 70's small ball media fool you-Dunn is a misused gem."

I'm not disageeing with you about Dunn. I don't have enough knowledge about the topic to even pretend to muster an argument. But as far as your last point goes, lets face it: Small Ball wins in baseball nowadays. Period.

You may think the '04 Red Sox weren't a small ball team, but their philosiphy (sp?) is essentially small ball: make the pitchers throw a ton of pitches, get on base, wear down the pitcher, keep getting on base, & eventually the pitcher will tire when the line-up turns over to the big bats. Mark Bellhorn is in that line-up for one reason: he either strikes out, or walks. Nothing in-between. And that means, be it K or BB, that the pitcher is always throwing 4 to 5 to maybe even 10 pitches to Bellhorn each & every AB.

The '03 Marlins, '01 D-B's, & the '96-'98-'99-'00 Yanks were all 'Small Ball' teams too. That's 7 of the last 9 Champions.

Small ball works fine if you have the personnel for it, the Reds do not. They are mashers and nothing else but. The heartburn I have from being a Reds fan the past few years (aside from all the fucking losing) is listening to Marty and company whine bitch and moan about strikeouts. It's just absolutely nauseating and unfortunately it makes me come across as anti-small ball which I am not.

Taking a bunch of walks and hitting a bunch of HR's is a pretty good recipie for scoring runs as well and to be so closed minded about "how the game should be played" so as to completely miss that fact is wanton hubris. Earl Weaver did just fine applying that particular theory and the Reds are 2nd in the NL this year in Runs scored so all those K's Marty and his minions bitch about don't seem to be hurting the production all that much.

The fact is that the stats(in an enormus sample size) have been run and rerun by some seriously highpower math geeks and there is absolutely no significant(almost a true zero) correlation between K's and runs scored.

There is, however, a significant correlation between OPS and runs scored. You will never hear anyone associated with the Reds make mention of that fact. No, they are so wrapped up in old school thought patterns that they still think casey is the Reds best hitter because of his BA.

Sorry for the rant but its to the point where I want to physically whip Marty, George Grande and the crappy left hander every time I hear this bullshit which is about every other inning. I just want to scream at them "Strikeouts and situational hitting are not the reason we suck, ITS THE GOD DAMMED PITCHING !!!!!!!!!!!!!"