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Mid-November Heisman Race Update

Heisman Race Update

At THIS LINK you will find a previous comparison that shows quite vividly C.J. Stroud's superiority to other top FBS quarterbacks to this point in the season. Below is a continuation of that comparison with an update to the season stats.

HERE you will find a brief glossary of the terms used herein. These terms are also explained within this post, but in future weeks the explanations will be elided. We will simply include links to the glossary.

The Heisman race has been expanded to include a couple of Pac 12 quarterbacks who a certain 4-letter network has been plugging for the Heisman. The only member of the top 8 in Passing Efficiency that is excluded here is Kurtis Rourke of the Ohio Bobcats, as no one is likely to mention his name for the Heisman at any point, though they bring up Caleb Williams (who is ranked below him) with every third breath. The only QB outside of the top 8 that is included here is J.J. McCarthy, who is 18th in passing efficiency according to the NCAA. It is notable that his DPE is higher than that of the most recent media darling, Bo Nix. Passing efficiency shown here might be different than you'll see elsewhere as games against FCS teams have been excluded.

The columns in the following table can be interpreted as follows:

Quarterback: The quarterback to whom the numbers in that row apply. Some of you may have pieced that together for yourselves, or at least remembered it from last week.

PE vs FBS: Pass Efficiency in FBS games only

DPE: Differential Pass Efficiency - Ratio of your PE to your opponents' average PED

Rigidity: A number that indicates how well a quarterback maintains performance against the best competition. Positive numbers indicate better performance against better competition where as negative numbers are indicative of bullies who pad stats against lesser competition. Significant improvements were made to the rigidity calculation this week, making it more accurate (tedious details elided).

Composite PED: All passing stats for all opponents were compiled into one pass efficiency number. Composite PED is where that pass efficiency would land among FBS teams in this week's Pass Efficiency Defense (PED) rankings.
QuarterbackPE vs FBSQB's DPERigidityComposite PED
C.J. Stroud188.1591.53511.54339
Hendon Hooker178.9761.497-4.67226
Drake Maye177.6581.41069.07549
Grayson McCall174.7211.327-11.44076
Caleb Williams166.4151.225-17.00790
J.J. McCarthy157.6041.224-36.70663
Max Duggan163.4611.20932.64589
Bo Nix169.1971.201-38.923102

This analysis is 100% objective. When other teams are superior, DSA says so (see Georgia's DSC if you doubt it). In this case though, Buckeye Planet stats give us very good reason to believe that the Buckeye Quarterback is the best there is in this sport. No scarlet colored glasses, just raw, unbiased numbers that have a ton of relevant context baked into them. With three weeks left in this contest, we can honestly say "C.J. Stroud for Heisman: Not Because He's a Buckeye; Because He Deserves It"
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