Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Week 5 in the Big Ten features Ohio State's first road game
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After three easy non-conference wins, the Buckeyes step into conference play for the first time this season.
Last week ATS: 11-8 (4-3 National, 7-5 B1G)
Season ATS: 42-38 (13-12 National, 29-26 B1G)
It was nice to rebound last week with a winning record after some bad picks the week before. One thing I can hang my hat on so far this year is being perfect on my Ohio State picks through three games. Since this is a Buckeye blog, if there is one thing I strive to do right it is try and lock in on the team we cover. Everything else is just icing on the cake.
Washington v. Rutgers (-2.5) - Friday 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Washington rebounded from their loss to Washington State in the Apple Cup with a dominating performance in their Big Ten debut, holding Northwestern to just 112 yards in the 24-5 win over the Wildcats. Now the Huskies hit the road in conference for the first time, traveling all the way across the country to take on a Rutgers squad who is knocking on the door of the top 25 after a 26-23 win at Virginia Tech last week.
So far this season the Scarlet Knights have been leaning heavily on running back Kyle Monangai, who has at least 19 carries in each of the first three games. Opponents can’t focus all their attention on trying to slow down Monangai, since Minnesota transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has been solid this year, completing over 60 percent of his passes.
The Huskies have a lot of nice pieces on their roster, led by Mississippi State transfer quarterback Will Rogers, former Arizona running back Jonah Coleman, and wide receiver Giles Jackson. This just feels like one of the best teams Greg Schiano has assembled at Rutgers, which is why I’m backing the Scarlet Knights to stay undefeated.
Not only will Washington have to travel across the country for a Friday game, Schiano will use Monangai to wear the defense of the Huskies out, which will lead to Kaliakmanis hitting some play-action throws.
Rutgers 27, Washington 20
Minnesota v. No. 12 Michigan (-9.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Last week Michigan kept their season from spiraling out of control by beating USC 27-24. The Wolverines used a run-heavy attack to nip the Trojans, rushing 46 times for 290 yards. Alex Orji was only asked to throw the football 12 times, finishing with just 32 yards passing in his first start at quarterback. Orji didn’t have a full complement of weapons in the game, as tight end Colston Loveland was sidelined due to injury.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25642413/2173824820.jpg "USC v Michigan")
Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images
Look for Michigan to continue to feature the run this week, especially after Iowa was able to roll up 272 yards rushing last week against the Golden Gophers. I’m not sure how Minnesota is going to be able to match the Wolverines in this game. Darius Taylor is going to have a hard time running the football, while Max Brosmer hasn’t shown a lot at quarterback after transferring from New Hampshire.
While this year won’t be a 52-10 beatdown like we saw in last year’s battle for the Little Brown Jug, Michigan will comfortably retain the rivalry trophy.
Michigan 28, Minnesota 10
Maryland v. Indiana (-6.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
So much for my thought that Indiana would have a “letdown game” last week against Charlotte after the blowout of UCLA at the Rose Bowl by the Hoosiers. The 49ers were able to close the deficit to 17-14 in the second quarter before Indiana rolled off 35 unanswered points to continue their stunning start to the season. Curt Cignetti’s crew did most of their damage on the ground last week, rushing for six touchdowns in the win.
Last week Billy Edwards Jr. was nearly perfect, missing on just four of his 32 pass attempts, with one of those misses being an interception. The prime target for Edwards in the win over Villanova was Tai Felton, who caught 14 passes for 157 yards and a score. The Terrapins feel like they could be the first true test for Cignetti and Indiana this season. Edwards is playing with confidence, Maryland can run the football with Roman Hemby, and the defense of the Terrapins is opportunistic.
Mike Locksley’s team has played a couple teams with a pulse, which is more than Indiana can say. Give me the points with a team that has been tested a little bit.
Maryland 34, Indiana 30
Nebraska (-10.5) v. Purdue - 12:00 p.m. ET - Peacock
Purdue has looked terrible after beating Indiana State in their season opener. Over the last two weeks, the Boilermakers have lost to Notre Dame and Oregon State by a combined score of 104-28. One thing Purdue did well against Oregon State was get Devin Mockobee involved, with the running back rushing for 168 yards and a score on 16 carries. The problem in the loss to the Beavers was the Boilermakers couldn’t stop Oregon State on the ground, giving up 341 yards.
The Mike Riley/Scott Frost Nebraska showed up on Friday night, as the Cornhuskers lost at home in overtime to Illinois. What will be telling of where Matt Rhule has this program is how Nebraska responds to the loss. The Cornhuskers do have some new blood at quarterback in Dylan Raiola, who looks like he has too much confidence to allow the loss to spiral into a losing streak. Plus, the defense of Nebraska could cause a lot of problems for a Purdue offense that looks lost.
I have more confidence in the Cornhuskers righting their ship than I do in the Boilermakers snapping their two-game losing skid.
Nebraska 38, Purdue 17
Wisconsin v. No. 13 USC (-15.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
The last time we saw Wisconsin they were getting blown off the field by Alabama in Madison. Now after a week off, the Badgers have to make the trip to Los Angeles to take on a USC team that is licking their wounds after falling to Michigan last week in their Big Ten debut.
Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell’s nightmare as head coach of the Badgers continued when quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was lost for the rest of the season after suffering an injury against the Crimson Tide. With Van Dyke sidelined, Braedyn Locke will start for the Badgers.
Michigan did give the rest of the Big Ten a game plan on how to beat USC. Run the football early and often to keep Miller Moss and the offense of the Trojans on the sidelines. The smart move for Fickell would be to leave offensive coordinator Phil Longo at home since nothing good has happened since Longo has tried to bring an “air raid” offense to Madison.
Fickell has to remember he has Chez Mellusi at running back, and it would be a smart move to use him as much as possible.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25642419/2170525306.jpg "COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 07 South Dakota at Wisconsin")
What Wisconsin has going for them heading into this game is they did have a week off after the Alabama game, allowing Locke some time to get comfortable as the starter. I’m banking on the Trojans to be a little beat down after the loss on the road to Michigan. USC will win a game where the Badgers hang around.
USC 34, Wisconsin 24
No. 19 Illinois v. No. 9 Penn State (-17.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
It is hilarious to me that just a few years after these teams played a 46 overtime game that ended with something like a 10-9 score in State College, now these two teams are both ranked and meeting in primetime on network television.
A week after beating Nebraska in overtime in Lincoln, Bret Bielema’s squad hits the road again for another tough matchup. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been underrated this year, completing over 70 percent of his passes, finding the end zone 10 times, and most importantly not throwing any picks through the first four games of the season.
This is where we start to find out what Penn State really is this year. Even though the Nittany Lions are 3-0, results have been mixed. In the opener they went on the road and thrashed West Virginia, followed by a close game against Bowling Green, and most recently a shutout of Kent State. Penn State is definitely a playoff contender with quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. What likely will hold the Nittany Lions back is head coach James Franklin, who constantly turtles in big games.
I’m probably a sucker for thinking 17.5 is a lot to be laying here. Illinois has already gone into a tough environment on the road at night and left with a victory. While I’m not saying they are going to beat Penn State here, I do think Bielema puts together a game plan to keep the Fighting Illini in this game.
Penn State 31, Illinois 21
No. 8 Oregon (-25.5) v. UCLA - 11:00 p.m. ET - FOX
How UCLA only lost by 17 last week is beyond me. The Bruins are truly dreadful. On offense, UCLA is one-dimensional since they can’t run the football. Want to know how many yards UCLA has rushed for in the first three games? 181 yards.
Since they can’t run the football, opponents can tee off on quarterback Ethan Garbers. The Bruins still haven’t cracked 20 points in a game this season. The lack of offense puts more pressure on a defense that isn’t capable of slowing down a competent offense.
Through the first 10 quarters of the season, Oregon looked pretty average. In the second half against Oregon State, the Ducks looked like a true playoff contender, outscoring their in-state rival 27-0. Dillon Gabriel has completed nearly every pass he has attempted this year, and it looked like the offensive line started to gel a little bit a couple Saturdays ago in Corvallis.
Oregon should be able to name their score in Pasadena on Saturday night against a UCLA team that is looking like they are in contention to be one of the worst Power Four teams in the country this year.
Oregon 48, UCLA 14
No. 3 Ohio State (-23.5) v. Michigan State - 7:30 p.m. ET - Peacock
Finally Ohio State will play a team that isn’t unserious. There was no doubt the Buckeyes were going to roll through their non-conference schedule of Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. While it’s hard to feel too much about wins over those three programs, at least Ryan Day’s team handled their business without breaking much of a sweat, and were able to navigate those contests without suffering any notable injuries.
Now Ohio State can turn up the difficulty a little bit with their first road game of the season, followed by a game against Iowa before heading out to Eugene for the much-anticipated contest against Oregon.
Jonathan Smith has put together a solid start in his first season as Michigan State head coach. The Spartans were close to entering this game undefeated, but Boston College scored a touchdown with under two minutes to go on Saturday night to hand Michigan State their first loss of the season.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been boom or bust so far this year, making some big plays in his first year after coming with Smith from Oregon State, while also throwing seven interceptions this year. The Spartans could be a little more dangerous on Saturday night if wide receiver Nick Marsh is able to play after missing the last two games due to injury.
The scary thing for the rest of college football is Ohio State isn’t operating at top speed yet. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson continued their outstanding play, rushing for two touchdowns each for the second straight game. Through the air, Will Howard is finding more comfort with Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and the rest of the receivers.
The defense has shown they are a scary unit despite having a couple hiccups last week while defensive tackle Tyleik Williams was sidelined.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25642421/2173246286.jpg "COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 21 Marshall at Ohio State")
Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
There have been a few times over the last 50 years where Michigan State has upset Ohio State teams ranked in the top-five. This isn’t going to be another of those upsets.
The Buckeye defense will harass Chiles into making some more mistakes, giving the offense some short fields. We already saw how Ohio State responded against Western Michigan after their opener against Akron when they had a sluggish start.
Last week we saw another slow start against Marshall, so I expect the Buckeyes to be focused in their first game on the road this season.
Ohio State 45, Michigan State 13
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After three easy non-conference wins, the Buckeyes step into conference play for the first time this season.
Last week ATS: 11-8 (4-3 National, 7-5 B1G)
Season ATS: 42-38 (13-12 National, 29-26 B1G)
It was nice to rebound last week with a winning record after some bad picks the week before. One thing I can hang my hat on so far this year is being perfect on my Ohio State picks through three games. Since this is a Buckeye blog, if there is one thing I strive to do right it is try and lock in on the team we cover. Everything else is just icing on the cake.
B1G games (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
Washington v. Rutgers (-2.5) - Friday 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Washington rebounded from their loss to Washington State in the Apple Cup with a dominating performance in their Big Ten debut, holding Northwestern to just 112 yards in the 24-5 win over the Wildcats. Now the Huskies hit the road in conference for the first time, traveling all the way across the country to take on a Rutgers squad who is knocking on the door of the top 25 after a 26-23 win at Virginia Tech last week.
So far this season the Scarlet Knights have been leaning heavily on running back Kyle Monangai, who has at least 19 carries in each of the first three games. Opponents can’t focus all their attention on trying to slow down Monangai, since Minnesota transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has been solid this year, completing over 60 percent of his passes.
The Huskies have a lot of nice pieces on their roster, led by Mississippi State transfer quarterback Will Rogers, former Arizona running back Jonah Coleman, and wide receiver Giles Jackson. This just feels like one of the best teams Greg Schiano has assembled at Rutgers, which is why I’m backing the Scarlet Knights to stay undefeated.
Not only will Washington have to travel across the country for a Friday game, Schiano will use Monangai to wear the defense of the Huskies out, which will lead to Kaliakmanis hitting some play-action throws.
Rutgers 27, Washington 20
Minnesota v. No. 12 Michigan (-9.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Last week Michigan kept their season from spiraling out of control by beating USC 27-24. The Wolverines used a run-heavy attack to nip the Trojans, rushing 46 times for 290 yards. Alex Orji was only asked to throw the football 12 times, finishing with just 32 yards passing in his first start at quarterback. Orji didn’t have a full complement of weapons in the game, as tight end Colston Loveland was sidelined due to injury.
Look for Michigan to continue to feature the run this week, especially after Iowa was able to roll up 272 yards rushing last week against the Golden Gophers. I’m not sure how Minnesota is going to be able to match the Wolverines in this game. Darius Taylor is going to have a hard time running the football, while Max Brosmer hasn’t shown a lot at quarterback after transferring from New Hampshire.
While this year won’t be a 52-10 beatdown like we saw in last year’s battle for the Little Brown Jug, Michigan will comfortably retain the rivalry trophy.
Michigan 28, Minnesota 10
Maryland v. Indiana (-6.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
So much for my thought that Indiana would have a “letdown game” last week against Charlotte after the blowout of UCLA at the Rose Bowl by the Hoosiers. The 49ers were able to close the deficit to 17-14 in the second quarter before Indiana rolled off 35 unanswered points to continue their stunning start to the season. Curt Cignetti’s crew did most of their damage on the ground last week, rushing for six touchdowns in the win.
Last week Billy Edwards Jr. was nearly perfect, missing on just four of his 32 pass attempts, with one of those misses being an interception. The prime target for Edwards in the win over Villanova was Tai Felton, who caught 14 passes for 157 yards and a score. The Terrapins feel like they could be the first true test for Cignetti and Indiana this season. Edwards is playing with confidence, Maryland can run the football with Roman Hemby, and the defense of the Terrapins is opportunistic.
Mike Locksley’s team has played a couple teams with a pulse, which is more than Indiana can say. Give me the points with a team that has been tested a little bit.
Maryland 34, Indiana 30
Nebraska (-10.5) v. Purdue - 12:00 p.m. ET - Peacock
Purdue has looked terrible after beating Indiana State in their season opener. Over the last two weeks, the Boilermakers have lost to Notre Dame and Oregon State by a combined score of 104-28. One thing Purdue did well against Oregon State was get Devin Mockobee involved, with the running back rushing for 168 yards and a score on 16 carries. The problem in the loss to the Beavers was the Boilermakers couldn’t stop Oregon State on the ground, giving up 341 yards.
The Mike Riley/Scott Frost Nebraska showed up on Friday night, as the Cornhuskers lost at home in overtime to Illinois. What will be telling of where Matt Rhule has this program is how Nebraska responds to the loss. The Cornhuskers do have some new blood at quarterback in Dylan Raiola, who looks like he has too much confidence to allow the loss to spiral into a losing streak. Plus, the defense of Nebraska could cause a lot of problems for a Purdue offense that looks lost.
I have more confidence in the Cornhuskers righting their ship than I do in the Boilermakers snapping their two-game losing skid.
Nebraska 38, Purdue 17
Wisconsin v. No. 13 USC (-15.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
The last time we saw Wisconsin they were getting blown off the field by Alabama in Madison. Now after a week off, the Badgers have to make the trip to Los Angeles to take on a USC team that is licking their wounds after falling to Michigan last week in their Big Ten debut.
Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell’s nightmare as head coach of the Badgers continued when quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was lost for the rest of the season after suffering an injury against the Crimson Tide. With Van Dyke sidelined, Braedyn Locke will start for the Badgers.
Michigan did give the rest of the Big Ten a game plan on how to beat USC. Run the football early and often to keep Miller Moss and the offense of the Trojans on the sidelines. The smart move for Fickell would be to leave offensive coordinator Phil Longo at home since nothing good has happened since Longo has tried to bring an “air raid” offense to Madison.
Fickell has to remember he has Chez Mellusi at running back, and it would be a smart move to use him as much as possible.
What Wisconsin has going for them heading into this game is they did have a week off after the Alabama game, allowing Locke some time to get comfortable as the starter. I’m banking on the Trojans to be a little beat down after the loss on the road to Michigan. USC will win a game where the Badgers hang around.
USC 34, Wisconsin 24
No. 19 Illinois v. No. 9 Penn State (-17.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
It is hilarious to me that just a few years after these teams played a 46 overtime game that ended with something like a 10-9 score in State College, now these two teams are both ranked and meeting in primetime on network television.
A week after beating Nebraska in overtime in Lincoln, Bret Bielema’s squad hits the road again for another tough matchup. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been underrated this year, completing over 70 percent of his passes, finding the end zone 10 times, and most importantly not throwing any picks through the first four games of the season.
This is where we start to find out what Penn State really is this year. Even though the Nittany Lions are 3-0, results have been mixed. In the opener they went on the road and thrashed West Virginia, followed by a close game against Bowling Green, and most recently a shutout of Kent State. Penn State is definitely a playoff contender with quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. What likely will hold the Nittany Lions back is head coach James Franklin, who constantly turtles in big games.
I’m probably a sucker for thinking 17.5 is a lot to be laying here. Illinois has already gone into a tough environment on the road at night and left with a victory. While I’m not saying they are going to beat Penn State here, I do think Bielema puts together a game plan to keep the Fighting Illini in this game.
Penn State 31, Illinois 21
No. 8 Oregon (-25.5) v. UCLA - 11:00 p.m. ET - FOX
How UCLA only lost by 17 last week is beyond me. The Bruins are truly dreadful. On offense, UCLA is one-dimensional since they can’t run the football. Want to know how many yards UCLA has rushed for in the first three games? 181 yards.
Since they can’t run the football, opponents can tee off on quarterback Ethan Garbers. The Bruins still haven’t cracked 20 points in a game this season. The lack of offense puts more pressure on a defense that isn’t capable of slowing down a competent offense.
Through the first 10 quarters of the season, Oregon looked pretty average. In the second half against Oregon State, the Ducks looked like a true playoff contender, outscoring their in-state rival 27-0. Dillon Gabriel has completed nearly every pass he has attempted this year, and it looked like the offensive line started to gel a little bit a couple Saturdays ago in Corvallis.
Oregon should be able to name their score in Pasadena on Saturday night against a UCLA team that is looking like they are in contention to be one of the worst Power Four teams in the country this year.
Oregon 48, UCLA 14
No. 3 Ohio State (-23.5) v. Michigan State - 7:30 p.m. ET - Peacock
Finally Ohio State will play a team that isn’t unserious. There was no doubt the Buckeyes were going to roll through their non-conference schedule of Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. While it’s hard to feel too much about wins over those three programs, at least Ryan Day’s team handled their business without breaking much of a sweat, and were able to navigate those contests without suffering any notable injuries.
Now Ohio State can turn up the difficulty a little bit with their first road game of the season, followed by a game against Iowa before heading out to Eugene for the much-anticipated contest against Oregon.
Jonathan Smith has put together a solid start in his first season as Michigan State head coach. The Spartans were close to entering this game undefeated, but Boston College scored a touchdown with under two minutes to go on Saturday night to hand Michigan State their first loss of the season.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been boom or bust so far this year, making some big plays in his first year after coming with Smith from Oregon State, while also throwing seven interceptions this year. The Spartans could be a little more dangerous on Saturday night if wide receiver Nick Marsh is able to play after missing the last two games due to injury.
The scary thing for the rest of college football is Ohio State isn’t operating at top speed yet. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson continued their outstanding play, rushing for two touchdowns each for the second straight game. Through the air, Will Howard is finding more comfort with Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and the rest of the receivers.
The defense has shown they are a scary unit despite having a couple hiccups last week while defensive tackle Tyleik Williams was sidelined.
There have been a few times over the last 50 years where Michigan State has upset Ohio State teams ranked in the top-five. This isn’t going to be another of those upsets.
The Buckeye defense will harass Chiles into making some more mistakes, giving the offense some short fields. We already saw how Ohio State responded against Western Michigan after their opener against Akron when they had a sluggish start.
Last week we saw another slow start against Marshall, so I expect the Buckeyes to be focused in their first game on the road this season.
Ohio State 45, Michigan State 13
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