Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Week 11 in the Big Ten will see Michigan square off with Penn State
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Plus, Ohio State hosting Michigan State under the lights is one of six other games in the conference on Saturday.
My predictions for Ole Miss-Georgia, Utah-Washington, and a number of other games outside the Big Ten can be found here.
No. 3 Michigan (-5.5) v. No. 10 Penn State - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
This is by far Michigan’s toughest test of the season. As if having to go into State College to take on Penn State wasn’t hard enough, the Wolverines are dealing a cheating scandal which has to make it tough to prepare for games, since they don’t know if or when the Big Ten is going to hand down any punishment for head coach Jim Harbaugh. While Michigan was able to easily handle Purdue last week, the pressure on Saturday will be at a level they haven’t experienced so far this year.
Penn State was able to put the uneven performance against Indiana behind them, beating up on Maryland last week. Drew Allar threw for 240 yards and four touchdowns against the Terrapins last week. After transferring from Kent State, Dante Cephas had his best game as a Nittany Lion, hauling in two of those touchdown passes from Allar last week.
As much as I hate Michigan, I would love for them to be undefeated heading into the Ohio State game in a couple weeks. The Buckeyes gave Michigan a (legal) blueprint on how to beat Penn State after they took down the Nittany Lions in Columbus last month. Even though I could see J.J. McCarthy and the Wolverines struggling early as they adjust to the noise from the fans at Beaver Stadium, Michigan is a better all-around team than Penn State.
Michigan 28, Penn State 17
Indiana v. Illinois (-6.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Both Indiana and Illinois are coming off surprising wins last week. The Hoosiers beat Wisconsin in Bloomington, while Illinois knocked Minnesota from the top of the Big Ten West with a 27-26 win over the Golden Gophers. Isaiah Williams hauled in a 46-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback John Paddock with less than a minute left in the game to secure the win for Illinois.
Neither of these teams are very good, yet they are both fighting for bowl eligibility. A loss for the Hoosiers will eliminate them from bowl contention, while Illinois has to win two of its final three games. Even though I don’t think much of Indiana’s ability to move the football, they play solid defense. Plus, I’m having a hard time trusting an Illinois team that has won all four of their games by six points or less. The Fighting Illini win ugly.
Illinois 24, Indiana 21
Maryland (-2.5) v. Nebraska - 12:00 p.m. ET - Peacock
You had just one job, Nebraska. All you had to do was win last week to become bowl eligible. Now the Cornhuskers have to find a way in one of their final three games. Matt Rhule’s team will play Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa to close out the regular season.
Maryland is in a similar situation, as they are one win away from bowl eligibility. The Terrapins started the year 5-0, but they have lost their last four games. While losses to Ohio State and Penn State are understandable, the setbacks against Illinois and Northwestern are a lot more puzzling. Taulia Tagovailoa is doing all he can at quarterback, throwing 21 touchdowns so far this year, he just isn’t getting much help from his teammates.
After seeing how bad Maryland was last week at keeping Penn State out of the backfield, I don’t see things getting much better against a hungry Nebraska defense. Really the only reason the Cornhuskers lost last week was because of self-inflicted mistakes. Nebraska plays better at home and finally gets the win needed to become bowl eligible.
Nebraska 27, Maryland 24
Rutgers v. No. 22 Iowa (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
I probably should have known not to take Iowa as more than a field goal favorite. Last week the Hawkeyes were able to beat Northwestern 10-7 in whatever that event was at Wrigley Field. Iowa totaled 169 yards of offense and still won because Northwestern wasn’t able to do anything against the great defense of the Hawkeyes.
Much like with other teams that play Ohio State, I’m always hesitant to back teams a week after they took on the Buckeyes. This is no different. The Scarlet Knights gave Ohio State everything they could handle and it still wasn’t enough. Now a struggling offense has to go on the road and play one of the best teams in the country. Not a good recipe for Rutgers. Iowa wins a low-scoring game.
Iowa 17, Rutgers 10
Minnesota v. Purdue (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - NBC
Last week Athan Kaliakmanis actually played one of best games as a Golden Gopher, tossing three touchdowns. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough for Minnesota, as they allowed a late touchdown to Illinois and lost 27-26. Missing from the backfield last week were Darius Taylor and Sean Tyler, leaving Jordan Nubin to shoulder most of the load.
The season can’t end soon enough for Purdue. The Boilermakers have lost four straight games and are just 2-7 on the season. Purdue’s offense has been non-existent during the losing streak, averaging just 12 points per game during the skid. Minnesota is powered by their defense, so it’s hard to imagine the Boilermakers have an offensive explosion on Saturday. I’ll take the team that still has bowl eligibility and the Big Ten West title to fight for.
Minnesota 24, Purdue 14
Northwestern v. Wisconsin (-10.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - FS1
I wonder if Luke Fickell wishes he was back at Cincinnati right now. Wisconsin has really struggled this year. While some of their issues can be attributed to injuries, the offense of the Badgers isn’t operating anywhere close to how Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo thought it would. About the only bright spot for Wisconsin this year has been the play of quarterback Braedyn Locke, who was thrust into action when Tanner Mordecai was injured.
Northwestern is actually playing like they care, which is more than some teams can say right now. The Wildcats actually have an outside shot at bowl eligibility, which would be quite the accomplishment after how they started the season following the mess that was left after the firing of Pat Fitzgerald. I’m not bold enough to pick a win from the Wildcats here, but I do think they’ll play Wisconsin tough.
Wisconsin 23, Northwestern 17
Michigan State v. No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
Great teams cover and that’s why Ohio State did last week. Things looked rough at halftime, with the Buckeyes trailing Rutgers 9-7. Then Jordan Hancock’s pick-six turned the tide and Ohio State went on to cover by half a point. This week the Buckeyes will have a lot bigger spread to navigate when they host Michigan State.
Even though the Spartans halted a six-game losing streak last week with a win over Nebraska, there are still a lot of issues the Spartans are dealing with. The team fired Mel Tucker early in the season, leaving secondary coach Harlon Bennett to be the acting head coach. Along with the change at head coach, Michigan State has seen a lot of inconsistent play at quarterback. Katin Houser has taken over at quarterback after Noah Kim threw six interceptions in the first five games.
TreVeyon Henderson is such a difference maker in the Buckeye offense. Henderson now has ran up over 200 yards of total offense in each of the last two games, taking some pressure off of wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Along with Henderson returning to the lineup, Emeka Egbuka was able to play last week after missing a few games with an injury. Now if only Cade Stover can play on Saturday, the Buckeye offense will be as close to full strength as it has been in a while.
How Houser and the Michigan State offense is going to put up enough points to keep this game competitive is beyond me. Ohio State’s defense has been nails all season. The Buckeyes still haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game this season, and last week they finally allowed a play of over 40 yards — which came on a “fumblerooski” play. The Spartans just don’t have the horses to break anything big on the Buckeyes.
Ohio State 45, Michigan State 10
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Plus, Ohio State hosting Michigan State under the lights is one of six other games in the conference on Saturday.
Last week ATS: 8-6-1 (5-2-1 National, 3-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 82-80-1 (38-46-1 National, 44-34 B1G)
My predictions for Ole Miss-Georgia, Utah-Washington, and a number of other games outside the Big Ten can be found here.
B1G games
No. 3 Michigan (-5.5) v. No. 10 Penn State - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
This is by far Michigan’s toughest test of the season. As if having to go into State College to take on Penn State wasn’t hard enough, the Wolverines are dealing a cheating scandal which has to make it tough to prepare for games, since they don’t know if or when the Big Ten is going to hand down any punishment for head coach Jim Harbaugh. While Michigan was able to easily handle Purdue last week, the pressure on Saturday will be at a level they haven’t experienced so far this year.
Penn State was able to put the uneven performance against Indiana behind them, beating up on Maryland last week. Drew Allar threw for 240 yards and four touchdowns against the Terrapins last week. After transferring from Kent State, Dante Cephas had his best game as a Nittany Lion, hauling in two of those touchdown passes from Allar last week.
As much as I hate Michigan, I would love for them to be undefeated heading into the Ohio State game in a couple weeks. The Buckeyes gave Michigan a (legal) blueprint on how to beat Penn State after they took down the Nittany Lions in Columbus last month. Even though I could see J.J. McCarthy and the Wolverines struggling early as they adjust to the noise from the fans at Beaver Stadium, Michigan is a better all-around team than Penn State.
Michigan 28, Penn State 17
Indiana v. Illinois (-6.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
Both Indiana and Illinois are coming off surprising wins last week. The Hoosiers beat Wisconsin in Bloomington, while Illinois knocked Minnesota from the top of the Big Ten West with a 27-26 win over the Golden Gophers. Isaiah Williams hauled in a 46-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback John Paddock with less than a minute left in the game to secure the win for Illinois.
Neither of these teams are very good, yet they are both fighting for bowl eligibility. A loss for the Hoosiers will eliminate them from bowl contention, while Illinois has to win two of its final three games. Even though I don’t think much of Indiana’s ability to move the football, they play solid defense. Plus, I’m having a hard time trusting an Illinois team that has won all four of their games by six points or less. The Fighting Illini win ugly.
Illinois 24, Indiana 21
Maryland (-2.5) v. Nebraska - 12:00 p.m. ET - Peacock
You had just one job, Nebraska. All you had to do was win last week to become bowl eligible. Now the Cornhuskers have to find a way in one of their final three games. Matt Rhule’s team will play Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa to close out the regular season.
Maryland is in a similar situation, as they are one win away from bowl eligibility. The Terrapins started the year 5-0, but they have lost their last four games. While losses to Ohio State and Penn State are understandable, the setbacks against Illinois and Northwestern are a lot more puzzling. Taulia Tagovailoa is doing all he can at quarterback, throwing 21 touchdowns so far this year, he just isn’t getting much help from his teammates.
After seeing how bad Maryland was last week at keeping Penn State out of the backfield, I don’t see things getting much better against a hungry Nebraska defense. Really the only reason the Cornhuskers lost last week was because of self-inflicted mistakes. Nebraska plays better at home and finally gets the win needed to become bowl eligible.
Nebraska 27, Maryland 24
Rutgers v. No. 22 Iowa (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - Big Ten Network
I probably should have known not to take Iowa as more than a field goal favorite. Last week the Hawkeyes were able to beat Northwestern 10-7 in whatever that event was at Wrigley Field. Iowa totaled 169 yards of offense and still won because Northwestern wasn’t able to do anything against the great defense of the Hawkeyes.
Much like with other teams that play Ohio State, I’m always hesitant to back teams a week after they took on the Buckeyes. This is no different. The Scarlet Knights gave Ohio State everything they could handle and it still wasn’t enough. Now a struggling offense has to go on the road and play one of the best teams in the country. Not a good recipe for Rutgers. Iowa wins a low-scoring game.
Iowa 17, Rutgers 10
Minnesota v. Purdue (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - NBC
Last week Athan Kaliakmanis actually played one of best games as a Golden Gopher, tossing three touchdowns. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough for Minnesota, as they allowed a late touchdown to Illinois and lost 27-26. Missing from the backfield last week were Darius Taylor and Sean Tyler, leaving Jordan Nubin to shoulder most of the load.
The season can’t end soon enough for Purdue. The Boilermakers have lost four straight games and are just 2-7 on the season. Purdue’s offense has been non-existent during the losing streak, averaging just 12 points per game during the skid. Minnesota is powered by their defense, so it’s hard to imagine the Boilermakers have an offensive explosion on Saturday. I’ll take the team that still has bowl eligibility and the Big Ten West title to fight for.
Minnesota 24, Purdue 14
Northwestern v. Wisconsin (-10.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - FS1
I wonder if Luke Fickell wishes he was back at Cincinnati right now. Wisconsin has really struggled this year. While some of their issues can be attributed to injuries, the offense of the Badgers isn’t operating anywhere close to how Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo thought it would. About the only bright spot for Wisconsin this year has been the play of quarterback Braedyn Locke, who was thrust into action when Tanner Mordecai was injured.
Northwestern is actually playing like they care, which is more than some teams can say right now. The Wildcats actually have an outside shot at bowl eligibility, which would be quite the accomplishment after how they started the season following the mess that was left after the firing of Pat Fitzgerald. I’m not bold enough to pick a win from the Wildcats here, but I do think they’ll play Wisconsin tough.
Wisconsin 23, Northwestern 17
Michigan State v. No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - NBC
Great teams cover and that’s why Ohio State did last week. Things looked rough at halftime, with the Buckeyes trailing Rutgers 9-7. Then Jordan Hancock’s pick-six turned the tide and Ohio State went on to cover by half a point. This week the Buckeyes will have a lot bigger spread to navigate when they host Michigan State.
Even though the Spartans halted a six-game losing streak last week with a win over Nebraska, there are still a lot of issues the Spartans are dealing with. The team fired Mel Tucker early in the season, leaving secondary coach Harlon Bennett to be the acting head coach. Along with the change at head coach, Michigan State has seen a lot of inconsistent play at quarterback. Katin Houser has taken over at quarterback after Noah Kim threw six interceptions in the first five games.
TreVeyon Henderson is such a difference maker in the Buckeye offense. Henderson now has ran up over 200 yards of total offense in each of the last two games, taking some pressure off of wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Along with Henderson returning to the lineup, Emeka Egbuka was able to play last week after missing a few games with an injury. Now if only Cade Stover can play on Saturday, the Buckeye offense will be as close to full strength as it has been in a while.
How Houser and the Michigan State offense is going to put up enough points to keep this game competitive is beyond me. Ohio State’s defense has been nails all season. The Buckeyes still haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game this season, and last week they finally allowed a play of over 40 yards — which came on a “fumblerooski” play. The Spartans just don’t have the horses to break anything big on the Buckeyes.
Ohio State 45, Michigan State 10
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