Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Predictions for the final set of bowl games outside the College Football Playoff
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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Starting with today’s ReliaQuest Bowl, there are only eight non-CFP bowl games left this season.
Bowl record ATS: 18-13 (16-9 National, 2-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 142-128 (68-63 National, 74-65 B1G)
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 11 Alabama (-12.5) v. Michigan - Tuesday 12/31 12:00 p.m. - ESPN
Two teams that met on the first day of 2024 will close out the year. A lot has changed for both programs since the Rose Bowl on January 1st. Nick Saban retired, Jim Harbaugh is now coaching in the NFL, leaving a coaching matchup between Kalen DeBoer and Sherrone Moore.
While there were some that thought Alabama deserved a spot in this year’s playoff, Michigan never really came close to contending to be part of the 12-team field. Despite entering the game with just a 7-5 record, all the Wolverines really care about is the 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus on the last day of November.
This game should be called the Opt-Out Bowl because of the number of players that won’t play in this game. Alabama will be without starting cornerback DeVonta Smith, who is in the transfer portal, and All-American safety Malachi Moore. The problem for Michigan is Davis Warren won’t have any help since running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, as well as tight end Colston Loveland won’t play.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe will also find things a little easier without having defensive linemen Mason Graham, Larry Grant, and Josiah Stewart breathing down his neck. The Crimson Tide get a little revenge for the overtime loss in the Rose Bowl they suffered.
Alabama 27, Michigan 10
Sun Bowl: Louisville (-2.5) v. Washington - Tuesday 12/31 2:00 p.m. - CBS
The Cardinals and Huskies will both be starting new quarterbacks for different reasons in the Sun Bowl.
Louisville’s Tyler Shough has opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL Draft, while Washington’s Will Rogers was benched prior to the Oregon game in favor of freshman Demond Williams Jr., since head coach Jedd Fisch wants to see what he has in the young quarterback ahead of the 2025 season. Williams should have a better handle on the offense in this game with the extra bowl practices.
Louisville may have finished the season with an 8-4 record, but they didn’t really impress me all that much. I could see the Cardinals mailing it in since they’ll be missing so many key pieces in this game, while the Huskies will want to finish the season strong and create a little bit of momentum for the 2025 season, especially after running back Jonah Coleman announced he would be returning to Seattle next season.
Washington 28, Louisville 20
Citrus Bowl: No. 15 South Carolina (-10.5) v. No. 20 Illinois - Tuesday 12/31 3:00 p.m. - ABC
When I first saw this line I expected to see something like Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer was opting out of this game. Altmyer will play, but will be without top receiver Pat Bryant, who entered the transfer portal after the regular season.
I still think this line is pretty disrespectful to Illinois, who will be looking for their first 10-win season since 2001. Bret Bielema is going to have his team hungry to snap a three-game bowl losing streak.
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Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images
If we are talking about an SEC team that should have made the playoff, I think it should have been South Carolina, who is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Gamecocks have won six straight games, with their last victory being a comeback win over in-state rival Clemson.
While quarterback LaNorris Sellers will be playing on New Year’s Eve, running back Rocket Sanders and defensive end Kyle Kennard won’t suit up. South Carolina wins this game, I just feel like the Fighting Illini are going to provide some resistance in Orlando.
South Carolina 31, Illinois 24
Texas Bowl: Baylor (-3.5) v. LSU - Tuesday 12/31 3:30 p.m. - ESPN
I feel like Baylor head coach Dave Aranda and LSU’s Brian Kelly should come dressed in some ridiculous outfit like women’s basketball coach Kim Mulkey, since she coached at both schools. Something like that would be perfect for Kelly since he loves to stick his foot in his mouth, just like Mulkey. Aranda, a former LSU defensive coordinator, is just a bald dude that is sort of there on the sidelines, so I don’t really have as much disdain for him.
When it comes to the actual football that will be played in this game, this isn’t quite the dominant LSU team that we have become used to recently. Garrett Nussmeier is an exciting quarterback, but he will be without a number of weapons. Wide receiver Kyren Lacy and tight end Mason Taylor won’t play in this game.
Baylor doesn’t have any notable opt-outs from a team that won their last six games of the regular season. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson attacks a soft LSU defense and leads the Bears to the win in an exciting game ahead of the first CFP quarterfinal to close out 2024.
Baylor 38, LSU 28
Gator Bowl: Duke v. No. 14 Ole Miss (-17.5) - Thursday 1/2 7:30 p.m. - ESPN
David Cutcliffe should be special guest referee or grand marshal for this game since he coached at both Ole Miss and Duke. Even though the schools have shared a head coach, they have never shared the field before, as this will be the first meeting between the programs.
Speaking of head coaches, I wonder how close to kickoff Lane Kiffin will have a crybaby tweet about the playoff and how his team isn’t in it. It seems like Kiffin has been focusing on every game but his team’s own game lately.
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Photo by Wes Hale/Getty Images
If we’re being serious, Kiffin probably doesn’t have to put much into a game plan for Duke since the Blue Devils will be without starting quarterback Maalik Murphy, who is headed to Oregon State, as well as his backup quarterback. Taking the snaps for Duke will be Henry Belin IV, who has thrown one pass in his career. Talk about a quarterback mismatch since Ole Miss will trot out Jaxson Dart.
Kiffin and Dart take out some of their frustrations on a Duke squad that will struggle mightily to move the football.
Ole Miss 34, Duke 13
First Responder Bowl: North Texas v. Texas State (-13.5) - Friday 1/3 4:00 p.m. - ESPN
It feels like we are being cheated a bit in this game since North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris won’t play after hitting the transfer portal and committing to Virginia, while Texas State’s Jordan McCloud likely won’t play much on Friday. The two quarterbacks combined to throw 60 touchdowns this season.
Along with Morris, North Texas will be without top receiver DT Sheffield, who is headed to Rutgers. Texas State running back Ismail Mahdi is also on the move as well, with Arizona his home for the 2025 season. Will the last one left for this game turn out the lights when you’re done?
I guess I’ll ride with Texas State here since McCloud could play a little bit, and they don’t have a walk-on true freshman quarterback starting.
Texas State 37, North Texas 17
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Minnesota (-7.5) v. Virginia Tech - Friday 1/3 7:30 p.m. - ESPN
How great would it be to see mayo dumped on P.J. Fleck’s head? I want Minnesota to win just to see how Fleck would try and weasel his way out of it. If the Golden Gophers win, they should just sneak attack him with the mayo bucket since Fleck is always so put together with what he wears on the sidelines.
At least to Fleck’s credit, it doesn’t sound like Minnesota has many opt-outs for this game, aside from offensive lineman Phillip Daniels, who is coming to Ohio State.
The same can’t be said for Virginia Tech. Quarterback Kyron Drones likely won’t play due to injury, and by the time the game starts the Hokies could be down at least 10 starters. Not a good recipe against a Minnesota team that can grind down teams at full strength. Brent Pry is just treading water in Blacksburg and this game won’t change that.
Minnesota 31, Virginia Tech 14
Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo (-2.5) v. Liberty - Saturday 1/4 11:00 a.m. - ESPN2
Imagine being a Buffalo player and being told you are going to the Bahamas in early January. That would be about as close to winning a national title. I would know, since I spent the first 20 years of my life dealing with winters in Western New York. The Bulls closed the season strong, winning their last four games, scoring at least 37 points in each contest.
After making a New Year’s Six bowl last year, Liberty finished the regular season at 8-3. Quarterback Kaidon Salter wasn’t able to replicate the magic from 2023. Salter won’t play in this game since he already committed to Colorado after entering the transfer portal. For the Flames the Bahamas Bowl probably feels like a disappointment after playing in the Fiesta Bowl last year, while Buffalo will look to earn their ninth win in Pete Lembo’s first season as head coach.
Buffalo 27, Liberty 20
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images
Starting with today’s ReliaQuest Bowl, there are only eight non-CFP bowl games left this season.
Bowl record ATS: 18-13 (16-9 National, 2-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 142-128 (68-63 National, 74-65 B1G)
Non-CFP bowl games 12/31 - 1/4
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 11 Alabama (-12.5) v. Michigan - Tuesday 12/31 12:00 p.m. - ESPN
Two teams that met on the first day of 2024 will close out the year. A lot has changed for both programs since the Rose Bowl on January 1st. Nick Saban retired, Jim Harbaugh is now coaching in the NFL, leaving a coaching matchup between Kalen DeBoer and Sherrone Moore.
While there were some that thought Alabama deserved a spot in this year’s playoff, Michigan never really came close to contending to be part of the 12-team field. Despite entering the game with just a 7-5 record, all the Wolverines really care about is the 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus on the last day of November.
This game should be called the Opt-Out Bowl because of the number of players that won’t play in this game. Alabama will be without starting cornerback DeVonta Smith, who is in the transfer portal, and All-American safety Malachi Moore. The problem for Michigan is Davis Warren won’t have any help since running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, as well as tight end Colston Loveland won’t play.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe will also find things a little easier without having defensive linemen Mason Graham, Larry Grant, and Josiah Stewart breathing down his neck. The Crimson Tide get a little revenge for the overtime loss in the Rose Bowl they suffered.
Alabama 27, Michigan 10
Sun Bowl: Louisville (-2.5) v. Washington - Tuesday 12/31 2:00 p.m. - CBS
The Cardinals and Huskies will both be starting new quarterbacks for different reasons in the Sun Bowl.
Louisville’s Tyler Shough has opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL Draft, while Washington’s Will Rogers was benched prior to the Oregon game in favor of freshman Demond Williams Jr., since head coach Jedd Fisch wants to see what he has in the young quarterback ahead of the 2025 season. Williams should have a better handle on the offense in this game with the extra bowl practices.
Louisville may have finished the season with an 8-4 record, but they didn’t really impress me all that much. I could see the Cardinals mailing it in since they’ll be missing so many key pieces in this game, while the Huskies will want to finish the season strong and create a little bit of momentum for the 2025 season, especially after running back Jonah Coleman announced he would be returning to Seattle next season.
Washington 28, Louisville 20
Citrus Bowl: No. 15 South Carolina (-10.5) v. No. 20 Illinois - Tuesday 12/31 3:00 p.m. - ABC
When I first saw this line I expected to see something like Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer was opting out of this game. Altmyer will play, but will be without top receiver Pat Bryant, who entered the transfer portal after the regular season.
I still think this line is pretty disrespectful to Illinois, who will be looking for their first 10-win season since 2001. Bret Bielema is going to have his team hungry to snap a three-game bowl losing streak.
If we are talking about an SEC team that should have made the playoff, I think it should have been South Carolina, who is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Gamecocks have won six straight games, with their last victory being a comeback win over in-state rival Clemson.
While quarterback LaNorris Sellers will be playing on New Year’s Eve, running back Rocket Sanders and defensive end Kyle Kennard won’t suit up. South Carolina wins this game, I just feel like the Fighting Illini are going to provide some resistance in Orlando.
South Carolina 31, Illinois 24
Texas Bowl: Baylor (-3.5) v. LSU - Tuesday 12/31 3:30 p.m. - ESPN
I feel like Baylor head coach Dave Aranda and LSU’s Brian Kelly should come dressed in some ridiculous outfit like women’s basketball coach Kim Mulkey, since she coached at both schools. Something like that would be perfect for Kelly since he loves to stick his foot in his mouth, just like Mulkey. Aranda, a former LSU defensive coordinator, is just a bald dude that is sort of there on the sidelines, so I don’t really have as much disdain for him.
When it comes to the actual football that will be played in this game, this isn’t quite the dominant LSU team that we have become used to recently. Garrett Nussmeier is an exciting quarterback, but he will be without a number of weapons. Wide receiver Kyren Lacy and tight end Mason Taylor won’t play in this game.
Baylor doesn’t have any notable opt-outs from a team that won their last six games of the regular season. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson attacks a soft LSU defense and leads the Bears to the win in an exciting game ahead of the first CFP quarterfinal to close out 2024.
Baylor 38, LSU 28
Gator Bowl: Duke v. No. 14 Ole Miss (-17.5) - Thursday 1/2 7:30 p.m. - ESPN
David Cutcliffe should be special guest referee or grand marshal for this game since he coached at both Ole Miss and Duke. Even though the schools have shared a head coach, they have never shared the field before, as this will be the first meeting between the programs.
Speaking of head coaches, I wonder how close to kickoff Lane Kiffin will have a crybaby tweet about the playoff and how his team isn’t in it. It seems like Kiffin has been focusing on every game but his team’s own game lately.
If we’re being serious, Kiffin probably doesn’t have to put much into a game plan for Duke since the Blue Devils will be without starting quarterback Maalik Murphy, who is headed to Oregon State, as well as his backup quarterback. Taking the snaps for Duke will be Henry Belin IV, who has thrown one pass in his career. Talk about a quarterback mismatch since Ole Miss will trot out Jaxson Dart.
Kiffin and Dart take out some of their frustrations on a Duke squad that will struggle mightily to move the football.
Ole Miss 34, Duke 13
First Responder Bowl: North Texas v. Texas State (-13.5) - Friday 1/3 4:00 p.m. - ESPN
It feels like we are being cheated a bit in this game since North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris won’t play after hitting the transfer portal and committing to Virginia, while Texas State’s Jordan McCloud likely won’t play much on Friday. The two quarterbacks combined to throw 60 touchdowns this season.
Along with Morris, North Texas will be without top receiver DT Sheffield, who is headed to Rutgers. Texas State running back Ismail Mahdi is also on the move as well, with Arizona his home for the 2025 season. Will the last one left for this game turn out the lights when you’re done?
I guess I’ll ride with Texas State here since McCloud could play a little bit, and they don’t have a walk-on true freshman quarterback starting.
Texas State 37, North Texas 17
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Minnesota (-7.5) v. Virginia Tech - Friday 1/3 7:30 p.m. - ESPN
How great would it be to see mayo dumped on P.J. Fleck’s head? I want Minnesota to win just to see how Fleck would try and weasel his way out of it. If the Golden Gophers win, they should just sneak attack him with the mayo bucket since Fleck is always so put together with what he wears on the sidelines.
At least to Fleck’s credit, it doesn’t sound like Minnesota has many opt-outs for this game, aside from offensive lineman Phillip Daniels, who is coming to Ohio State.
The same can’t be said for Virginia Tech. Quarterback Kyron Drones likely won’t play due to injury, and by the time the game starts the Hokies could be down at least 10 starters. Not a good recipe against a Minnesota team that can grind down teams at full strength. Brent Pry is just treading water in Blacksburg and this game won’t change that.
Minnesota 31, Virginia Tech 14
Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo (-2.5) v. Liberty - Saturday 1/4 11:00 a.m. - ESPN2
Imagine being a Buffalo player and being told you are going to the Bahamas in early January. That would be about as close to winning a national title. I would know, since I spent the first 20 years of my life dealing with winters in Western New York. The Bulls closed the season strong, winning their last four games, scoring at least 37 points in each contest.
After making a New Year’s Six bowl last year, Liberty finished the regular season at 8-3. Quarterback Kaidon Salter wasn’t able to replicate the magic from 2023. Salter won’t play in this game since he already committed to Colorado after entering the transfer portal. For the Flames the Bahamas Bowl probably feels like a disappointment after playing in the Fiesta Bowl last year, while Buffalo will look to earn their ninth win in Pete Lembo’s first season as head coach.
Buffalo 27, Liberty 20
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