Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Picks for Tennessee-Ohio State and the rest of the CFP first round
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
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Picks against the spread for Volunteers-Buckeyes, a Friday night battle in Indiana, and the other two Saturday contests.
Bowl season: 3-1 (3-1 National, 0-0 B1G)
Season record: 127-116 (55-54 National, 72-61 B1G)
BLeez’s bowl record reflects games played prior to Thursday.
No. 10 Indiana v. No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5) - Friday 12/20 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC/ESPN
It’s wild that in the first-ever game in the 12-team College Football Playoff, we’ll have a battle for the Hoosier State. It’s no surprise that Notre Dame is a part of the playoff since the Fighting Irish will likely need to have a dreadful season to not be a part of an expanded playoff. Pretty much any season with two losses or less will see Notre Dame included in the field. Although early this season it looked like Marcus Freeman’s team might be underachievers after losing at home to Northern Illinois. Since then, the Fighting Irish have reeled off 10 straight wins, allowing 14 points or less in nine games this season.
Indiana also enters this game with an 11-1 record on the season, with their only loss coming to Ohio State near the end of the regular season. Following the setback against the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers rebounded to destroy Purdue, shutting out the Boilermakers 66-0. Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke was one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season, throwing 27 touchdowns in just four interceptions. On the defensive side, Mikail Kamara caused a lot of disruption in opposing backfields, registering 10 sacks this year.
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Photo by Edward Diller/Getty Images
Dame is steady on both sides of the football. The defense of the Fighting Irish puts Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love in favorable positions to square. The quarterback and running back have combined to score 29 touchdowns on the ground this season. What Notre Dame can’t afford to do is let Indiana jump out to an early lead since Leonard doesn’t have a strong stable of receivers. Beaux Collins is the Fighting Irish’s leading receiver, totaling just 427 yards this season.
Unlike the next round of playoff games, I don’t know if they actually call this a “bowl game”. No matter if it is or isn’t, a wild stat is Indiana hasn’t won a bowl game since 1991. Although I don’t think the Hoosiers win in South Bend on Friday night, I do think Curt Cignetti’s crew pushes The Fighting Irish. The playoff gets off to an entertaining start as Notre Dame advances with a win in a game that comes down to the wire.
Notre Dame 28, Indiana 24
No. 11 SMU v. No. 6 Penn State (-8.5) - Saturday 12/21 12:00 p.m. ET - TNT/MAX
Both these teams are coming off losses in their conference championship games. Penn State didn’t have quite enough offense to keep with Oregon, while SMU made a comeback to tie Clemson late in the ACC Championship Game before the Tigers drained a long field goal to beat the Mustangs. SMU’s comeback to tie Clemson likely was what kept the committee from choosing Alabama over SMU for the last at-large spot.
After Preston Stone started the season at quarterback for the Mustangs, Kevin Jennings took over early in the season and tossed 22 touchdown passes this season. The star of the SMU offense has been running back Brashard Smith, who rushed for 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns. On defense, Kobe Wilson has been a tackling machine this year, registering 110 stops.
Imagine just how feared Penn State would be if they didn’t have a big-game choke artist like James Franklin as their head coach. Luckily for Franklin, he’ll get this game in State College, and it sounds like he’ll get some wintry conditions that’ll greet the team from Dallas. The Nittany Lions do have a solid quartet of offensive weapons in quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren.
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Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
As much as I can’t stand Penn State, I think this is a great spot for them. The crowd in State College is going to be loud and the weather is going to be chilly, which will throw SMU off their game even before it begins. Star defensive end Abdul Carter and company are going to make life miserable for Jennings, while Allar should be able to pick apart the SMU defense since he’ll have plenty of time to throw behind his offensive line. The Nittany Lions have a pretty easy path to get to the semifinals and they start with a double-digit win over the ACC newbies.
Penn State 31, SMU 17
No. 12 Clemson v. No. 5 Texas (-11.5) - Saturday 12/21 4:00 p.m. ET - TNT/MAX
Somehow these two teams have never met on the football field. That’ll all change on Saturday afternoon when Dabo Swinney brings the ACC champs to Austin. Both of these teams suffered losses to Georgia this year. Clemson lost their season opener to the Bulldogs in Atlanta, while Texas fell twice to Georgia, once in Austin, and most recently in overtime in the SEC Championship Game. The two losses to the Bulldogs were the only losses the Longhorns suffered this year.
If Clemson is going to win this game they’ll need Cade Klubnik to put the team on his back. The quarterback has pretty much done it all for the Tigers this year, throwing for 3,300 yards, 33 touchdowns, and rushing for seven scores in 13 games. Running back Phil Mafah has also been reliable for most of the season, but he was banged up late in the year, and while he will play on Saturday it remains to be seen just how effective he will be.
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Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images
What’s crazy is there are a lot of people who are wondering if Quinn Ewers is good enough to lead Texas to a title. Ewers and the Longhorns nearly made it to the title game last year, losing to Washington in the semifinal. This year Ewers has thrown 25 touchdown passes. There are times when Ewers can be inaccurate, but there are other times when he throws absolute ropes to Matthew Golden, Gunnar Helm, and the rest of the Texas receivers.
Texas will be too much on both sides of the football for Clemson. Ewers silences some of the doubters for at least a game, while Steve Sarkisian works Arch Manning into the game in some packages. Anthony Hill and the rest of the Longhorn defense get after Klubnik since they know the Tigers will have to use him more with Mafah nursing an injury. Watching Dabo Swinney get humbled will never get old.
Texas 37, Clemson 21
No. 9 Tennessee v. No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5) - Saturday 12/21 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC/ESPN
Even thinking about this game is giving me anxiety. After Ohio State’s 13-10 loss to Michigan last month, there hasn’t been a lot to be positive about when it comes to the Buckeyes. At least there is some precedent for Ryan Day and Ohio State bouncing back from a loss to Michigan with a spirited performance in the CFP. Back in 2022, the Buckeyes nearly knocked off eventual national champion Georgia.
Tennessee is a very solid team. Dylan Sampson is one of the best running backs in the country, rushing for over 1,400 yards and 22 touchdowns this year, earning SEC Offensive Player of the Year honors. The key for the Buckeyes is going to be bottling up Sampson, and putting more pressure on redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava. While Iamaleava is a capable quarterback, he doesn’t have the caliber of weapons that Will Howard has at his disposal.
What will end up deciding the game is how the offensive line of the Buckeyes deals with defensive end James Pearce Jr. and the Tennessee defense. Pearce is a future first-round pick, so Donovan Jackson and the rest of the line that has lost two starters to injury is going to have their work cut out for them. Much like Ohio State, the Volunteers rank in the top 5 in a number of defensive categories. Howard is going to have his wealth of experience behind center to navigate what defensive coordinator Tim Banks is going to throw at him.
The Buckeyes need more from running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson than what they got against Michigan. If Judkins and Henderson can put together some runs they can keep the Tennessee defense on the field, as well as open things up for Howard to find Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and the rest of his receivers.
Obviously this is a homer pick since it is no fun to watch the game if you think Tennessee is going to win. I’m just very skeptical that the Buckeyes are going to cover the spread. This has the feeling of a game where every yard is earned and it comes down to late in the fourth quarter. Playing at home under the lights at Ohio Stadium pushes Ohio State to a narrow victory, setting up a rematch with Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State 24, Tennessee 20
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
Picks against the spread for Volunteers-Buckeyes, a Friday night battle in Indiana, and the other two Saturday contests.
Bowl season: 3-1 (3-1 National, 0-0 B1G)
Season record: 127-116 (55-54 National, 72-61 B1G)
BLeez’s bowl record reflects games played prior to Thursday.
College Football Playoff games:
No. 10 Indiana v. No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5) - Friday 12/20 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC/ESPN
It’s wild that in the first-ever game in the 12-team College Football Playoff, we’ll have a battle for the Hoosier State. It’s no surprise that Notre Dame is a part of the playoff since the Fighting Irish will likely need to have a dreadful season to not be a part of an expanded playoff. Pretty much any season with two losses or less will see Notre Dame included in the field. Although early this season it looked like Marcus Freeman’s team might be underachievers after losing at home to Northern Illinois. Since then, the Fighting Irish have reeled off 10 straight wins, allowing 14 points or less in nine games this season.
Indiana also enters this game with an 11-1 record on the season, with their only loss coming to Ohio State near the end of the regular season. Following the setback against the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers rebounded to destroy Purdue, shutting out the Boilermakers 66-0. Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke was one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season, throwing 27 touchdowns in just four interceptions. On the defensive side, Mikail Kamara caused a lot of disruption in opposing backfields, registering 10 sacks this year.
Dame is steady on both sides of the football. The defense of the Fighting Irish puts Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love in favorable positions to square. The quarterback and running back have combined to score 29 touchdowns on the ground this season. What Notre Dame can’t afford to do is let Indiana jump out to an early lead since Leonard doesn’t have a strong stable of receivers. Beaux Collins is the Fighting Irish’s leading receiver, totaling just 427 yards this season.
Unlike the next round of playoff games, I don’t know if they actually call this a “bowl game”. No matter if it is or isn’t, a wild stat is Indiana hasn’t won a bowl game since 1991. Although I don’t think the Hoosiers win in South Bend on Friday night, I do think Curt Cignetti’s crew pushes The Fighting Irish. The playoff gets off to an entertaining start as Notre Dame advances with a win in a game that comes down to the wire.
Notre Dame 28, Indiana 24
No. 11 SMU v. No. 6 Penn State (-8.5) - Saturday 12/21 12:00 p.m. ET - TNT/MAX
Both these teams are coming off losses in their conference championship games. Penn State didn’t have quite enough offense to keep with Oregon, while SMU made a comeback to tie Clemson late in the ACC Championship Game before the Tigers drained a long field goal to beat the Mustangs. SMU’s comeback to tie Clemson likely was what kept the committee from choosing Alabama over SMU for the last at-large spot.
After Preston Stone started the season at quarterback for the Mustangs, Kevin Jennings took over early in the season and tossed 22 touchdown passes this season. The star of the SMU offense has been running back Brashard Smith, who rushed for 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns. On defense, Kobe Wilson has been a tackling machine this year, registering 110 stops.
Imagine just how feared Penn State would be if they didn’t have a big-game choke artist like James Franklin as their head coach. Luckily for Franklin, he’ll get this game in State College, and it sounds like he’ll get some wintry conditions that’ll greet the team from Dallas. The Nittany Lions do have a solid quartet of offensive weapons in quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren.
As much as I can’t stand Penn State, I think this is a great spot for them. The crowd in State College is going to be loud and the weather is going to be chilly, which will throw SMU off their game even before it begins. Star defensive end Abdul Carter and company are going to make life miserable for Jennings, while Allar should be able to pick apart the SMU defense since he’ll have plenty of time to throw behind his offensive line. The Nittany Lions have a pretty easy path to get to the semifinals and they start with a double-digit win over the ACC newbies.
Penn State 31, SMU 17
No. 12 Clemson v. No. 5 Texas (-11.5) - Saturday 12/21 4:00 p.m. ET - TNT/MAX
Somehow these two teams have never met on the football field. That’ll all change on Saturday afternoon when Dabo Swinney brings the ACC champs to Austin. Both of these teams suffered losses to Georgia this year. Clemson lost their season opener to the Bulldogs in Atlanta, while Texas fell twice to Georgia, once in Austin, and most recently in overtime in the SEC Championship Game. The two losses to the Bulldogs were the only losses the Longhorns suffered this year.
If Clemson is going to win this game they’ll need Cade Klubnik to put the team on his back. The quarterback has pretty much done it all for the Tigers this year, throwing for 3,300 yards, 33 touchdowns, and rushing for seven scores in 13 games. Running back Phil Mafah has also been reliable for most of the season, but he was banged up late in the year, and while he will play on Saturday it remains to be seen just how effective he will be.
What’s crazy is there are a lot of people who are wondering if Quinn Ewers is good enough to lead Texas to a title. Ewers and the Longhorns nearly made it to the title game last year, losing to Washington in the semifinal. This year Ewers has thrown 25 touchdown passes. There are times when Ewers can be inaccurate, but there are other times when he throws absolute ropes to Matthew Golden, Gunnar Helm, and the rest of the Texas receivers.
Texas will be too much on both sides of the football for Clemson. Ewers silences some of the doubters for at least a game, while Steve Sarkisian works Arch Manning into the game in some packages. Anthony Hill and the rest of the Longhorn defense get after Klubnik since they know the Tigers will have to use him more with Mafah nursing an injury. Watching Dabo Swinney get humbled will never get old.
Texas 37, Clemson 21
No. 9 Tennessee v. No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5) - Saturday 12/21 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC/ESPN
Even thinking about this game is giving me anxiety. After Ohio State’s 13-10 loss to Michigan last month, there hasn’t been a lot to be positive about when it comes to the Buckeyes. At least there is some precedent for Ryan Day and Ohio State bouncing back from a loss to Michigan with a spirited performance in the CFP. Back in 2022, the Buckeyes nearly knocked off eventual national champion Georgia.
Tennessee is a very solid team. Dylan Sampson is one of the best running backs in the country, rushing for over 1,400 yards and 22 touchdowns this year, earning SEC Offensive Player of the Year honors. The key for the Buckeyes is going to be bottling up Sampson, and putting more pressure on redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava. While Iamaleava is a capable quarterback, he doesn’t have the caliber of weapons that Will Howard has at his disposal.
What will end up deciding the game is how the offensive line of the Buckeyes deals with defensive end James Pearce Jr. and the Tennessee defense. Pearce is a future first-round pick, so Donovan Jackson and the rest of the line that has lost two starters to injury is going to have their work cut out for them. Much like Ohio State, the Volunteers rank in the top 5 in a number of defensive categories. Howard is going to have his wealth of experience behind center to navigate what defensive coordinator Tim Banks is going to throw at him.
The Buckeyes need more from running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson than what they got against Michigan. If Judkins and Henderson can put together some runs they can keep the Tennessee defense on the field, as well as open things up for Howard to find Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and the rest of his receivers.
Obviously this is a homer pick since it is no fun to watch the game if you think Tennessee is going to win. I’m just very skeptical that the Buckeyes are going to cover the spread. This has the feeling of a game where every yard is earned and it comes down to late in the fourth quarter. Playing at home under the lights at Ohio Stadium pushes Ohio State to a narrow victory, setting up a rematch with Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State 24, Tennessee 20
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