Brett Ludwiczak
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MC&J: Georgia-Texas is the gold star of Week 8 nationally in college football
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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Picks for Bulldogs-Longhorns, Crimson Tide-Volunteers, and six other intriguing games outside the Big Ten.
Last week ATS: 4-10 (3-4 National, 1-6 B1G)
Season ATS: 59-65 (21-25 National, 38-40 B1G)
It’s funny because last week my picks were terrible, but I had a couple moneyline parlays I hit at the casino in Oregon, so even though my record here for the week was embarrassing, I did find ways to make it a profitable. Now if only Ohio State had won….
There were a bunch of games where the spread came down to a couple points in the final scores. I happened to be on the wrong side of most of them it seemed. I’m not too concerned since I was on the right track with a lot of picks, I just didn’t have much luck.
It will even back out.
Oklahoma State v. No. 13 BYU (-9.5) - Friday 10:15 p.m. ET - ESPN
Oklahoma State is coming into this game off a bye week, which they desperately needed. The Cowboys have lost three-straight games, running back Ollie Gordon II hasn’t been much of a factor this year, and AARP quarterback Alan Bowman has thrown six interceptions over the last three games. For a team that was expected to challenge for the Big 12 title this year, Mike Gundy’s group is struggling to stay relevant now.
On the other side, nobody was expecting BYU to be this good this season. The Cougars coming off a 41-19 win over Arizona, forcing the Wildcats into committing four turnovers in the game. If BYU wants to stay undefeated they’ll need offensive performances like they had last week where they did struggle as much to run the football, rolling up nearly 150 yards on the ground in the blowout victory.
Even though I know Provo is a tough place to play, I do like the Cowboys to give BYU a game. This feels like the type of game where Mike Gundy has his team ready to pull an upset. With a week off to prepare for this game, Gundy puts together a game plan that will have the Cougars on the ropes. It would be such a Mike Gundy thing to ruin something we are all enjoying. Luckily I think BYU stays undefeated, they just have to really sweat in this one.
BYU 31, Oklahoma State 28
No. 6 Miami (FL) (-4.5) v. Louisville - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Miami has been playing with fire lately, beating Virginia Tech and Cal by a combined five points. The Hurricanes are coming off an emotional 39-38 comeback win over the Golden Bears. At least Miami had some extra time to reset after the victory, as they didn’t play last weekend.
Now Cam Ward will look to continue his Heisman campaign. The Washington State transfer quarterback already has 23 total touchdowns this year and is starting to stack memorable moments after two straight comeback wins.
Louisville had been cruising this season before a loss to Notre Dame rolled over into a poor performance against SMU. The Cardinals were able to right the ship a bit with a 24-20 win at Virginia. Now Louisville returns home to try and end the dreams of an undefeated season for Miami. Alabama transfer receiver Ja’Corey Brooks has been a fun watch this year, catching 30 passes and six touchdowns in his first year with the Cardinals.
This feels like one of those games where Louisville adds to the playoff chaos. I’m not sure Miami is as good as everyone wants them to be. I could see the Hurricanes coming out flat after a week on the sidelines. The Cardinals stay alive in the ACC title race with a crucial win over Miami on Saturday.
Louisville 38, Miami (FL) 31
Auburn v. No. 19 Missouri (-4.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Is Missouri as bad as their 41-10 loss a couple weeks ago at Texas A&M? I doubt it. For some reason the Tigers played on the road at UMass last week, stomping the Minutemen 45-3. Did Missouri have to make that trip so Eli Drinkwitz could try and make amends to the state of Massachusetts after sounding less than enthused to be playing at Boston College a couple years ago?
What has Auburn done this year to make them only slight underdogs on the road in this game? The Tigers come to Columbia having lost three of their last four games. Quarterback Peyton Thorne is a turnover machine, and since Auburn struggles to get their offensive moving it taxes the defense. I could see Brady Cook and running back Nick Noel putting together some time consuming drives that wear Auburn out on the road.
While I’m not ready to put Missouri back in the playoff mix, I do think they have corrected some of the issues we saw from them in the Texas A&M game. Plus, their overtime win over Vanderbilt is looking better by the week! Auburn just can’t keep pace in their second straight road game where they are coming off a physical loss to Georgia.
Missouri 30, Auburn 17
No. 7 Alabama (-3) v. No. 11 Tennessee - 3:30 p.m. ET - ABC
The Third Saturday in October may be on a new network, but it feels like the drama hasn’t changed. Alabama had a 15-game winning streak over Tennessee that was snapped in 2022 after the Volunteers won 52-49 in Knoxville. Now the Crimson Tide will be looking to make in two wins in a row in the series after beating Tennessee 34-20 in Tuscaloosa last year.
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Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Neither team enters this game inspiring much confidence. Alabama barely beat South Carolina a week after losing to Vanderbilt, while Tennessee was pushed to the edge by Florida after losing to Arkansas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava hasn’t done much over the past four games, failing to throw for over 200 yards in any of those games and throwing just two touchdowns. Running back Dylan Sampson has done most of the heavy lifting for Tennessee this year, already racking up 15 rushing touchdowns.
I think the recent sluggishness from Alabama will be a little easier to shake than that of what we have seen from Tennessee. Jalen Milroe’s ability to make plays with his arm and legs make the Crimson Tide dangerous in every game. I just don’t see the same explosiveness from the Volunteers, who might have had the bar set a little high after some blowout wins over bad opponents early in the season.
Alabama ends up being a little too much for Tennessee here.
Alabama 35, Tennessee 27
No. 8 LSU (-2.5) v. Arkansas - 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Last week LSU nearly suffered their second loss of the season before rallying late against Ole Miss to force overtime and beat the Rebels in the extra session. Garrett Nussmeier threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s thrilling victory. Where the Tigers ran into problems was when they tried to run the football, failing to reach 100 yards on the ground.
Last time we saw Arkansas, the Razorbacks upset Tennessee in Fayetteville two weeks ago. Now Sam Pittman will try and bag another upset of a top 10 team at home. Taylen Green was solid against the Volunteers, not throwing any interceptions in the game. Andrew Armstrong was Green’s favorite target agai against Tennessee, hauling in nine catches for 132 yards.
Two weeks ago I doubted Arkansas at home. This week I’m not going to make the same mistake. LSU was lucky to win against Ole Miss. There are still problems with the Tigers that have to be addressed. They can’t run the ball and the defense is hanging by a thread it feels like. LSU suffers a letdown after last week’s victory
Arkansas 28, LSU 24
UCF v. No. 9 Iowa State (-13.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - FS1
Following a 3-0 start to the season, UCF has fallen on hard times, losing three straight games. The Golden Knights have really struggled to put points on the board during their losing streak, scoring just 47 points during that span. At least Gus Malzahn is trying things to snap the team out of their funk, starting Jacurri Brown in place of KJ Jefferson last week. UCF needs to get RJ Harvey back on track. After opening the season with three straight 100-yard games, Harvey has failed to rush for more than 94 yards in the last three games.
Iowa State just keeps plugging along. Last week the Cyclones didn’t have to sweat much in a win at West Virginia. I had Iowa State on upset alert last week, which shows how much I know. The Cyclones are going to do anything that jumps off the page, they just play sound on both sides of the football. Quarterback Rocco Becht is just a sophomore but plays beyond his year since he already has so much experience on the field.
While I think Iowa State stays undefeated, this feels like the spread is a few points too high. Even though UCF hasn’t been playing well lately, a chance to hand the Cyclones their first loss of the season is enough to keep them hanging around on Saturday night in Ames.
Iowa State 31, UCF 21
No. 17 Kansas State (-3.5) v. West Virginia - 7:30 p.m. ET - FOX
I have to stop having faith in West Virginia in Morgantown. To start the season I thought the Mountaineers would give Penn State a game, and last week I thought they could upset Iowa State. I certainly look like an idiot for those picks. Of course now they’ll probably show up this week since I’ll be on the opposite side.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25682672/2178168947.jpg "Kansas State v Colorado")
Photo by Andrew Wevers/Getty Images
Kansas State earned a gritty win in Boulder last week over Colorado. Avery Johnson had three touchdowns in the win while running back DJ Giddens went over 180 yards on the ground for the second straight game. The Wildcats have rebounded from their loss to BYU with a couple of solid wins and I expect them to keep the momentum going in this one.
Kansas State 28, West Virginia 20
No. 5 Georgia v. No. 1 Texas (-3.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
It’s the college football game of the year of the century of the week. A few weeks ago we had Georgia/Alabama, last week Ohio State/Oregon, this clash in Austin on Saturday night, and in a few weeks we’ll have Ohio State/Penn State.
Even though these games don’t mean quite as much with the expanded playoff, so far they have been fun as hell to watch. I expect no different between the Bulldogs and Longhorns. Just keep UGA away from Bevo on the sidelines for the safety of everyone.
Something hasn’t been quite right with Georgia this year, yet the Bulldogs are still an incredible Ryan Williams catch and run away from being undefeated. The defense of Georgia hasn’t been as dominant as we have become accustomed to under Kirby Smart. Even though the Bulldogs reload after losing players to the NFL, they have struggled to match the lost production so far this season. Last week Mississippi State, who might be the worst team in the conference this year, scored 31 points on Georgia.
Texas took a bit to get going last week in the return of Quinn Ewers from injury, but the Longhorns still had little trouble with Oklahoma. Running back Quintrevion Wisner took the pressure off Ewers in Dallas by rushing for 118 yards and a score in the blowout of their rival. The defense of Texas continues to play at a high level, not giving up more than 13 points in a game through their first six games this season.
I just don’t trust Georgia as much as I do Texas heading into this game. Maybe all the legal issues are weighing on Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. Or maybe they were due for a step back after replacing so many stars over the past few years. Whatever it is I don’t like how Georgia is coming into this game.
Texas should be able to win on their home turf by at least a touchdown.
Texas 34, Georgia 23
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images
Picks for Bulldogs-Longhorns, Crimson Tide-Volunteers, and six other intriguing games outside the Big Ten.
Last week ATS: 4-10 (3-4 National, 1-6 B1G)
Season ATS: 59-65 (21-25 National, 38-40 B1G)
It’s funny because last week my picks were terrible, but I had a couple moneyline parlays I hit at the casino in Oregon, so even though my record here for the week was embarrassing, I did find ways to make it a profitable. Now if only Ohio State had won….
There were a bunch of games where the spread came down to a couple points in the final scores. I happened to be on the wrong side of most of them it seemed. I’m not too concerned since I was on the right track with a lot of picks, I just didn’t have much luck.
It will even back out.
National picks (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
Oklahoma State v. No. 13 BYU (-9.5) - Friday 10:15 p.m. ET - ESPN
Oklahoma State is coming into this game off a bye week, which they desperately needed. The Cowboys have lost three-straight games, running back Ollie Gordon II hasn’t been much of a factor this year, and AARP quarterback Alan Bowman has thrown six interceptions over the last three games. For a team that was expected to challenge for the Big 12 title this year, Mike Gundy’s group is struggling to stay relevant now.
On the other side, nobody was expecting BYU to be this good this season. The Cougars coming off a 41-19 win over Arizona, forcing the Wildcats into committing four turnovers in the game. If BYU wants to stay undefeated they’ll need offensive performances like they had last week where they did struggle as much to run the football, rolling up nearly 150 yards on the ground in the blowout victory.
Even though I know Provo is a tough place to play, I do like the Cowboys to give BYU a game. This feels like the type of game where Mike Gundy has his team ready to pull an upset. With a week off to prepare for this game, Gundy puts together a game plan that will have the Cougars on the ropes. It would be such a Mike Gundy thing to ruin something we are all enjoying. Luckily I think BYU stays undefeated, they just have to really sweat in this one.
BYU 31, Oklahoma State 28
No. 6 Miami (FL) (-4.5) v. Louisville - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Miami has been playing with fire lately, beating Virginia Tech and Cal by a combined five points. The Hurricanes are coming off an emotional 39-38 comeback win over the Golden Bears. At least Miami had some extra time to reset after the victory, as they didn’t play last weekend.
Now Cam Ward will look to continue his Heisman campaign. The Washington State transfer quarterback already has 23 total touchdowns this year and is starting to stack memorable moments after two straight comeback wins.
Louisville had been cruising this season before a loss to Notre Dame rolled over into a poor performance against SMU. The Cardinals were able to right the ship a bit with a 24-20 win at Virginia. Now Louisville returns home to try and end the dreams of an undefeated season for Miami. Alabama transfer receiver Ja’Corey Brooks has been a fun watch this year, catching 30 passes and six touchdowns in his first year with the Cardinals.
This feels like one of those games where Louisville adds to the playoff chaos. I’m not sure Miami is as good as everyone wants them to be. I could see the Hurricanes coming out flat after a week on the sidelines. The Cardinals stay alive in the ACC title race with a crucial win over Miami on Saturday.
Louisville 38, Miami (FL) 31
Auburn v. No. 19 Missouri (-4.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Is Missouri as bad as their 41-10 loss a couple weeks ago at Texas A&M? I doubt it. For some reason the Tigers played on the road at UMass last week, stomping the Minutemen 45-3. Did Missouri have to make that trip so Eli Drinkwitz could try and make amends to the state of Massachusetts after sounding less than enthused to be playing at Boston College a couple years ago?
What has Auburn done this year to make them only slight underdogs on the road in this game? The Tigers come to Columbia having lost three of their last four games. Quarterback Peyton Thorne is a turnover machine, and since Auburn struggles to get their offensive moving it taxes the defense. I could see Brady Cook and running back Nick Noel putting together some time consuming drives that wear Auburn out on the road.
While I’m not ready to put Missouri back in the playoff mix, I do think they have corrected some of the issues we saw from them in the Texas A&M game. Plus, their overtime win over Vanderbilt is looking better by the week! Auburn just can’t keep pace in their second straight road game where they are coming off a physical loss to Georgia.
Missouri 30, Auburn 17
No. 7 Alabama (-3) v. No. 11 Tennessee - 3:30 p.m. ET - ABC
The Third Saturday in October may be on a new network, but it feels like the drama hasn’t changed. Alabama had a 15-game winning streak over Tennessee that was snapped in 2022 after the Volunteers won 52-49 in Knoxville. Now the Crimson Tide will be looking to make in two wins in a row in the series after beating Tennessee 34-20 in Tuscaloosa last year.
Neither team enters this game inspiring much confidence. Alabama barely beat South Carolina a week after losing to Vanderbilt, while Tennessee was pushed to the edge by Florida after losing to Arkansas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava hasn’t done much over the past four games, failing to throw for over 200 yards in any of those games and throwing just two touchdowns. Running back Dylan Sampson has done most of the heavy lifting for Tennessee this year, already racking up 15 rushing touchdowns.
I think the recent sluggishness from Alabama will be a little easier to shake than that of what we have seen from Tennessee. Jalen Milroe’s ability to make plays with his arm and legs make the Crimson Tide dangerous in every game. I just don’t see the same explosiveness from the Volunteers, who might have had the bar set a little high after some blowout wins over bad opponents early in the season.
Alabama ends up being a little too much for Tennessee here.
Alabama 35, Tennessee 27
No. 8 LSU (-2.5) v. Arkansas - 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Last week LSU nearly suffered their second loss of the season before rallying late against Ole Miss to force overtime and beat the Rebels in the extra session. Garrett Nussmeier threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s thrilling victory. Where the Tigers ran into problems was when they tried to run the football, failing to reach 100 yards on the ground.
Last time we saw Arkansas, the Razorbacks upset Tennessee in Fayetteville two weeks ago. Now Sam Pittman will try and bag another upset of a top 10 team at home. Taylen Green was solid against the Volunteers, not throwing any interceptions in the game. Andrew Armstrong was Green’s favorite target agai against Tennessee, hauling in nine catches for 132 yards.
Two weeks ago I doubted Arkansas at home. This week I’m not going to make the same mistake. LSU was lucky to win against Ole Miss. There are still problems with the Tigers that have to be addressed. They can’t run the ball and the defense is hanging by a thread it feels like. LSU suffers a letdown after last week’s victory
Arkansas 28, LSU 24
UCF v. No. 9 Iowa State (-13.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - FS1
Following a 3-0 start to the season, UCF has fallen on hard times, losing three straight games. The Golden Knights have really struggled to put points on the board during their losing streak, scoring just 47 points during that span. At least Gus Malzahn is trying things to snap the team out of their funk, starting Jacurri Brown in place of KJ Jefferson last week. UCF needs to get RJ Harvey back on track. After opening the season with three straight 100-yard games, Harvey has failed to rush for more than 94 yards in the last three games.
Iowa State just keeps plugging along. Last week the Cyclones didn’t have to sweat much in a win at West Virginia. I had Iowa State on upset alert last week, which shows how much I know. The Cyclones are going to do anything that jumps off the page, they just play sound on both sides of the football. Quarterback Rocco Becht is just a sophomore but plays beyond his year since he already has so much experience on the field.
While I think Iowa State stays undefeated, this feels like the spread is a few points too high. Even though UCF hasn’t been playing well lately, a chance to hand the Cyclones their first loss of the season is enough to keep them hanging around on Saturday night in Ames.
Iowa State 31, UCF 21
No. 17 Kansas State (-3.5) v. West Virginia - 7:30 p.m. ET - FOX
I have to stop having faith in West Virginia in Morgantown. To start the season I thought the Mountaineers would give Penn State a game, and last week I thought they could upset Iowa State. I certainly look like an idiot for those picks. Of course now they’ll probably show up this week since I’ll be on the opposite side.
Kansas State earned a gritty win in Boulder last week over Colorado. Avery Johnson had three touchdowns in the win while running back DJ Giddens went over 180 yards on the ground for the second straight game. The Wildcats have rebounded from their loss to BYU with a couple of solid wins and I expect them to keep the momentum going in this one.
Kansas State 28, West Virginia 20
No. 5 Georgia v. No. 1 Texas (-3.5) - 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
It’s the college football game of the year of the century of the week. A few weeks ago we had Georgia/Alabama, last week Ohio State/Oregon, this clash in Austin on Saturday night, and in a few weeks we’ll have Ohio State/Penn State.
Even though these games don’t mean quite as much with the expanded playoff, so far they have been fun as hell to watch. I expect no different between the Bulldogs and Longhorns. Just keep UGA away from Bevo on the sidelines for the safety of everyone.
Something hasn’t been quite right with Georgia this year, yet the Bulldogs are still an incredible Ryan Williams catch and run away from being undefeated. The defense of Georgia hasn’t been as dominant as we have become accustomed to under Kirby Smart. Even though the Bulldogs reload after losing players to the NFL, they have struggled to match the lost production so far this season. Last week Mississippi State, who might be the worst team in the conference this year, scored 31 points on Georgia.
Texas took a bit to get going last week in the return of Quinn Ewers from injury, but the Longhorns still had little trouble with Oklahoma. Running back Quintrevion Wisner took the pressure off Ewers in Dallas by rushing for 118 yards and a score in the blowout of their rival. The defense of Texas continues to play at a high level, not giving up more than 13 points in a game through their first six games this season.
I just don’t trust Georgia as much as I do Texas heading into this game. Maybe all the legal issues are weighing on Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. Or maybe they were due for a step back after replacing so many stars over the past few years. Whatever it is I don’t like how Georgia is coming into this game.
Texas should be able to win on their home turf by at least a touchdown.
Texas 34, Georgia 23
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