Connor Lemons
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KenPom gives Ohio State a 33% chance to close out season with wins over Nebraska, Indiana
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Buckeyes need to win out to make the NCAA Tournament and not mess with fate in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Ohio State men’s basketball team (16-13, 8-10), has two potential paths to the NCAA Tournament — one simple, and one messy.
The simple, yet difficult path is to win its final two regular season games — at home tonight against Nebraska, and on the road at Indiana this weekend. That would give Ohio State an extra Quad-2 win and an extra Quad-1 win, making them 11-13 against Quad-1 and Quad-2 teams this year. It would also put them at an overall record of 18-13, and an even 10-10 in Big Ten play.
Even if the Buckeyes were to lose in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, they would likely find themselves in Dayon as a First Four play-in game if this was to happen. Perhaps this would make the team play a little more free in the conference tournament, knowing they really do not need to achieve anything more to have their names called.
The messy path is to not win the final two regular season games, and instead win enough Big Ten Tournament games to beef up the resume and sneak in. If Ohio State splits the final two regular season games and ends the year 17-14, they would likely need to win two games in the conference tournament to feel safely in — this would put them at 19-15.
The issue with sweetening your resume with conference tournament wins is that — fair or not — they do not hold the same weight as regular season games. For example, the NCAA Selection Show starts moments after the Big Ten Tournament winner is crowned — how much are they really valuing this conference tournament if they have the order and process nailed down before a Big Ten champion is even crowned?
For what it’s worth, KenPom.com is currently giving Ohio State a 33% chance to run the table across these last two games and (likely) lock up an at-large bid. (.71 x .46)
According to the popular analytics site, Ohio State has a 71% chance to beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Tuesday night, who have lost each of their last three games. Standout guard Brice Williams has continued to roll despite Nebraska’s troubles, averaging 21.3 points per game during the losing streak. The issue is that Nebraska may have relied on him too much, as the senior scored 33% of Nebraska’s points during that stretch.
After Nebraska, Ohio State will get four days off before heading to Bloomington, Indiana to take on the Hoosiers — another fellow NCAA Tournament bubble team. Assembly Hall is a tough place to win, and KenPom is giving Ohio State a 46% chance to win that one — just a bit less than a coin flip.
The Hoosiers had a rocky start but have since won four of their last five, including wins over Michigan State and Purdue. If Ohio State beats Nebraska tonight and Indiana beats Oregon, then Saturday’s game will essentially be a play-in game for the NCAA Tournament — the winner is in, the loser still has some work to do.
Combining those two probabilities brings us to 32.7% - for rounding purposes, we’ll go with 33%. They’ll be heavy favorites at home against Nebraska, but knocking off Indiana at Assembly Hall will be a brutally tough job. On top of the normal chaos and crowd at IU, it is also Senior Day for senior players like Trey Galloway and Anthony Leal —ctwo fan favorites — and the final home game for head coach Mike Woodson, who is expected to retire at the end of the season.
After getting railroaded by Northwestern two weeks ago, most fans would have been happy with “just win your last two games and you’re in” two weeks ago. Now, Ohio State really is just two wins away from punching their ticket, but 33% isn’t a super high likelihood of it working it out that way.
A dominant win over the Cornhuskers is the first step in beating those odds.
Continue reading...
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Buckeyes need to win out to make the NCAA Tournament and not mess with fate in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Ohio State men’s basketball team (16-13, 8-10), has two potential paths to the NCAA Tournament — one simple, and one messy.
The simple, yet difficult path is to win its final two regular season games — at home tonight against Nebraska, and on the road at Indiana this weekend. That would give Ohio State an extra Quad-2 win and an extra Quad-1 win, making them 11-13 against Quad-1 and Quad-2 teams this year. It would also put them at an overall record of 18-13, and an even 10-10 in Big Ten play.
Even if the Buckeyes were to lose in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, they would likely find themselves in Dayon as a First Four play-in game if this was to happen. Perhaps this would make the team play a little more free in the conference tournament, knowing they really do not need to achieve anything more to have their names called.
The messy path is to not win the final two regular season games, and instead win enough Big Ten Tournament games to beef up the resume and sneak in. If Ohio State splits the final two regular season games and ends the year 17-14, they would likely need to win two games in the conference tournament to feel safely in — this would put them at 19-15.
The issue with sweetening your resume with conference tournament wins is that — fair or not — they do not hold the same weight as regular season games. For example, the NCAA Selection Show starts moments after the Big Ten Tournament winner is crowned — how much are they really valuing this conference tournament if they have the order and process nailed down before a Big Ten champion is even crowned?
For what it’s worth, KenPom.com is currently giving Ohio State a 33% chance to run the table across these last two games and (likely) lock up an at-large bid. (.71 x .46)
According to the popular analytics site, Ohio State has a 71% chance to beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Tuesday night, who have lost each of their last three games. Standout guard Brice Williams has continued to roll despite Nebraska’s troubles, averaging 21.3 points per game during the losing streak. The issue is that Nebraska may have relied on him too much, as the senior scored 33% of Nebraska’s points during that stretch.
After Nebraska, Ohio State will get four days off before heading to Bloomington, Indiana to take on the Hoosiers — another fellow NCAA Tournament bubble team. Assembly Hall is a tough place to win, and KenPom is giving Ohio State a 46% chance to win that one — just a bit less than a coin flip.
The Hoosiers had a rocky start but have since won four of their last five, including wins over Michigan State and Purdue. If Ohio State beats Nebraska tonight and Indiana beats Oregon, then Saturday’s game will essentially be a play-in game for the NCAA Tournament — the winner is in, the loser still has some work to do.
Combining those two probabilities brings us to 32.7% - for rounding purposes, we’ll go with 33%. They’ll be heavy favorites at home against Nebraska, but knocking off Indiana at Assembly Hall will be a brutally tough job. On top of the normal chaos and crowd at IU, it is also Senior Day for senior players like Trey Galloway and Anthony Leal —ctwo fan favorites — and the final home game for head coach Mike Woodson, who is expected to retire at the end of the season.
After getting railroaded by Northwestern two weeks ago, most fans would have been happy with “just win your last two games and you’re in” two weeks ago. Now, Ohio State really is just two wins away from punching their ticket, but 33% isn’t a super high likelihood of it working it out that way.
A dominant win over the Cornhuskers is the first step in beating those odds.
Continue reading...