Sorry if I am putting the meat cart before the horse, but most of us at this point do not anticipate CFB being played this fall. Thought it might be worthwhile to explore the implications of this going forward.
There are some great Buckeyes that I was looking forward to watching this season - and who I will never see in Scarlet and Gray again.
In this post I want to focus specifically on how it impacts NFL eligibility, scholarship numbers and recruiting. I see implications in each of these areas that are not good for OSU.
1. Let's start with eligibility.
I am assuming that if there is no season in 2020-21 that this entire year of eligibility simply wont count. Next season seniors will still be seniors (eligibility-wise), juniors juniors, etc. I anticipate that the NCAA will not count this as a redshirt year for anybody. It will be as if it did not occur at all.
From an NFL perspective, however, it is different. To be eligible for the draft your HS class must be three years out of HS. I don't see that changing. So even though they will not have played this upcoming year, all of our current Juniors and RS Sophs will be draft eligible next summer. Kids who were eligible but came back for one more year may decide not to wait further. Schools like OSU will lose more talented players than other schools.
This will be a challenge for the NFL as well as they will be drafting kids based on performances a full year prior.
This also means that going forward many Sophomores and even RS Frosh will be eligible for the NFL at the end of the 2021-22 season. For most schools that is no big deal. But for the big boys it is. It could mean that we may get only one more season out of a kid like Garret Wilson.
And this will continue to be the case for every player on the current roster - including this year's incoming Frosh.
2. Let's talk about scholarship limits.
Again I am making the assumptions that the 5 year clock will be suspended for 2020.
So if we disregard the relatively small number of kids who will leave early (a very small number at most schools) we have a situation where almost nobody is leaving on one end, but the incoming flow continues on the other.
Freshman classes in 2021 will be as large as 50 kids. The NCAA has to raise the 85 cap. Possibly to as large as 110. Walk-ons would be eviscerated. And talented kids would be competing in a larger pool for the same number of starting positions.
In this situation I see the NCAA relaxing the transfer rule to at least a one time "no questions asked". This could be great for the Indianas and Marylands of the world, but not so much for the OSUs and Alabamas.
And this 50 Frosh "boomer bubble" will take at least four years to resolve itself as 25 more kids enter school each year.
3. So now let's look at recruiting
OSU has 19 commits in this class and we have yet to see a single play from their senior season.
If HS doesn't play - and I can't imagine they will - nest year we will be making early offers based on their Sophomore performance.
This will make recruiting more of a "pig in a poke" venture than it is today. Again this will benefit lesser programs who can't compete with the big boys for known quantities.
These are just some of my thoughts on one of the issues that I feel are more critical in this COVID ERA than what is being discussed in the media.
And now I must go as I have not heard any noise from the bedroom for the past half hour or so. I fear that my wife's ventilator may have shut down.
There are some great Buckeyes that I was looking forward to watching this season - and who I will never see in Scarlet and Gray again.
In this post I want to focus specifically on how it impacts NFL eligibility, scholarship numbers and recruiting. I see implications in each of these areas that are not good for OSU.
1. Let's start with eligibility.
I am assuming that if there is no season in 2020-21 that this entire year of eligibility simply wont count. Next season seniors will still be seniors (eligibility-wise), juniors juniors, etc. I anticipate that the NCAA will not count this as a redshirt year for anybody. It will be as if it did not occur at all.
From an NFL perspective, however, it is different. To be eligible for the draft your HS class must be three years out of HS. I don't see that changing. So even though they will not have played this upcoming year, all of our current Juniors and RS Sophs will be draft eligible next summer. Kids who were eligible but came back for one more year may decide not to wait further. Schools like OSU will lose more talented players than other schools.
This will be a challenge for the NFL as well as they will be drafting kids based on performances a full year prior.
This also means that going forward many Sophomores and even RS Frosh will be eligible for the NFL at the end of the 2021-22 season. For most schools that is no big deal. But for the big boys it is. It could mean that we may get only one more season out of a kid like Garret Wilson.
And this will continue to be the case for every player on the current roster - including this year's incoming Frosh.
2. Let's talk about scholarship limits.
Again I am making the assumptions that the 5 year clock will be suspended for 2020.
So if we disregard the relatively small number of kids who will leave early (a very small number at most schools) we have a situation where almost nobody is leaving on one end, but the incoming flow continues on the other.
Freshman classes in 2021 will be as large as 50 kids. The NCAA has to raise the 85 cap. Possibly to as large as 110. Walk-ons would be eviscerated. And talented kids would be competing in a larger pool for the same number of starting positions.
In this situation I see the NCAA relaxing the transfer rule to at least a one time "no questions asked". This could be great for the Indianas and Marylands of the world, but not so much for the OSUs and Alabamas.
And this 50 Frosh "boomer bubble" will take at least four years to resolve itself as 25 more kids enter school each year.
3. So now let's look at recruiting
OSU has 19 commits in this class and we have yet to see a single play from their senior season.
If HS doesn't play - and I can't imagine they will - nest year we will be making early offers based on their Sophomore performance.
This will make recruiting more of a "pig in a poke" venture than it is today. Again this will benefit lesser programs who can't compete with the big boys for known quantities.
These are just some of my thoughts on one of the issues that I feel are more critical in this COVID ERA than what is being discussed in the media.
And now I must go as I have not heard any noise from the bedroom for the past half hour or so. I fear that my wife's ventilator may have shut down.
