sandgk
Watson, Crick & A Twist
Some thoughts on what the events of the last few days mean going forward.
In the last few weeks we have seen the news that key prospects many Buckeye fans had high hopes of being signed in the '07 class are now headed elsewhere. Specifically high profile Defensive line prospects Barksdale, Martin, Davis, Brent, and others are gone.
What then does this mean for the rest of the recruiting class? What does it portend for '08 and later, both in terms of those recruiting classes and in terms of the squads that might take the field in coming years? What impact do the expected departures by entry to the draft, or transfer to pastures new have on these squads, on those same calendar recruiting classes?
Lastly, are there other lessons we the sideline spectators can glean from all of this, are there lessons that the recruiting staff from Ohio State have learnt this year, or perhaps from earlier years?
Where are the Buckeyes Right Now?
2007 Class Commits (as of 1/06/06) - 13; Maximum Scholarships to Give (as of today) 7. Projected Class Size - variously estimated before this week that the class size could be anywhere between 15 -20, which with this week is moving closer to that 15 mark.
The Rest of The Class
Still uncommitted and possible Buckeye leans on Defense include Major Wright, Devon Still and Cameron Heyward. The latter two being obvious and worthy future fill-ins at DT.
Early departures to the NFL - possibly 3, Ginn, Gonzo and Pittman; possible departures to transfer - 1, Wells
2007 Graduating Scholarship Seniors - 10 (7 after above early departures), 2008 Graduating Scholarship Players - 25 (24 should Wells depart). Early departures that might arise in the 2008 class (leaving as juniors or as academic seniors with eligibility remaining) 3. Gholston, Jenkins and Laurinaitis come to mind.
The 2008 Class?
Projected Scholarships available 2008 class thus depend upon the possible transfer of Wells, plus any unused scholarships from the 2007 class, plus the core 10 scholarships, plus any early departures projected from the 2008 Graduating class.
So, if the class remains at 13 (unlikely as hell) there are a maximum of 10 + 7 + 1 = 18 2008 Class scholarships without considering early departing juniors, 21 with if all 3 early departures are writ in stone and known.
More likely at least two or more additional commits come into the fold, hopefully at the positions of need like DT, leaving at most 16 scholarships for 2008 without considering early departures. If a "can't miss" prospect on Offense or at DB (Wright for instance) commits then it is back further from that 16 benchmark.
Beyond 2008?
Regardless of 2008, and its ability to fill the line and skill position needs, the number of 2009 departures assures a healthy class that year - probably with upwards of 20 signees, in fact the Schollie breakdown shows a maximum of 25 available. It seems unlikely that all would be used as the year following has eleven scholarships coming available. Better to bank some and even out the years?
Lessons - Ohio State Recruiting Staff
Probably two, one a reinforcing lesson, the other a potential change in tactic.
Reinforced - get kids who can and will stay.
Reinforced I would guess is the need to have better year to year balance. One way to do this is by having surer bets coming onto campus. This whole mess ensues in large part because of the asymmetry in the recruiting class sizes. This is understandable if the prospects available don't fit and you have to have a leaner year followed by a fatter year. That is not in my view what happened here. What brought it on was simple class attrition, particularly in the current Junior class. The cause of the bulk of that attrition is well documented, it is not injuries, but rather character or other non-athletic issues that reduced the numbers in what would have been a stellar class.
I feel that Tressel and his staff has learnt this lesson in the most brutal of fashions. They are clearly selecting for athletic and also character, academic or other good virtues these days. They are selecting for survival of the fittest and that is good. It should help reduce the instances of class size asymmetry .
A Change in Tactic?
Could the recruiters get some of those sure bets to commit early? Right now the tendency is to suggest that the Buckeye lean make the most of the recruiting process. This means that they (and we) are often left holding our breath. It also means that you risk "losing the sale" to a family or the student athlete as they consider other offers. An extreme version of this approach is that taken by Texas, they seem to have the bulk of their class locked up well in advance of signing day. There are no surprises (or damned few), there are few AA appearances for their recruits - not that Texas does or should care about that. The risk is that you might lose a prospect to failure to qualify after NLOID - which is handled in some instances by adding the unused scholarship to next years class. (There are other remedies used elsewhere, but these are less advisable, or ethical).
Lessons for The Interested Spectator?
Probably the same one we all relearn each and every year. The word of a young kid, given choices matching or beyond their dreams, is worth its full weight when uttered in a public setting, and especially only if put on paper. The word of a kid translated through the pachinko Ouija board that is the Internet has somewhat less mass.
Lesson Two - simply restated and relearnt, is that this class isn't over, nor has the sky fallen. There will still be a class full of great recruits coming to Columbus this year. We do not know the final size, but we can be assured they all want to be Buckeyes. We can also be fairly certain that a steadier, less asymmetric class size will be the norm in this and coming years.
Oh, yes, and the AA game is a promo show for Notre Dame and its hype machine.
In the last few weeks we have seen the news that key prospects many Buckeye fans had high hopes of being signed in the '07 class are now headed elsewhere. Specifically high profile Defensive line prospects Barksdale, Martin, Davis, Brent, and others are gone.
What then does this mean for the rest of the recruiting class? What does it portend for '08 and later, both in terms of those recruiting classes and in terms of the squads that might take the field in coming years? What impact do the expected departures by entry to the draft, or transfer to pastures new have on these squads, on those same calendar recruiting classes?
Lastly, are there other lessons we the sideline spectators can glean from all of this, are there lessons that the recruiting staff from Ohio State have learnt this year, or perhaps from earlier years?
Where are the Buckeyes Right Now?
2007 Class Commits (as of 1/06/06) - 13; Maximum Scholarships to Give (as of today) 7. Projected Class Size - variously estimated before this week that the class size could be anywhere between 15 -20, which with this week is moving closer to that 15 mark.
The Rest of The Class
Still uncommitted and possible Buckeye leans on Defense include Major Wright, Devon Still and Cameron Heyward. The latter two being obvious and worthy future fill-ins at DT.
Early departures to the NFL - possibly 3, Ginn, Gonzo and Pittman; possible departures to transfer - 1, Wells
2007 Graduating Scholarship Seniors - 10 (7 after above early departures), 2008 Graduating Scholarship Players - 25 (24 should Wells depart). Early departures that might arise in the 2008 class (leaving as juniors or as academic seniors with eligibility remaining) 3. Gholston, Jenkins and Laurinaitis come to mind.
The 2008 Class?
Projected Scholarships available 2008 class thus depend upon the possible transfer of Wells, plus any unused scholarships from the 2007 class, plus the core 10 scholarships, plus any early departures projected from the 2008 Graduating class.
So, if the class remains at 13 (unlikely as hell) there are a maximum of 10 + 7 + 1 = 18 2008 Class scholarships without considering early departing juniors, 21 with if all 3 early departures are writ in stone and known.
More likely at least two or more additional commits come into the fold, hopefully at the positions of need like DT, leaving at most 16 scholarships for 2008 without considering early departures. If a "can't miss" prospect on Offense or at DB (Wright for instance) commits then it is back further from that 16 benchmark.
Beyond 2008?
Regardless of 2008, and its ability to fill the line and skill position needs, the number of 2009 departures assures a healthy class that year - probably with upwards of 20 signees, in fact the Schollie breakdown shows a maximum of 25 available. It seems unlikely that all would be used as the year following has eleven scholarships coming available. Better to bank some and even out the years?
Lessons - Ohio State Recruiting Staff
Probably two, one a reinforcing lesson, the other a potential change in tactic.
Reinforced - get kids who can and will stay.
Reinforced I would guess is the need to have better year to year balance. One way to do this is by having surer bets coming onto campus. This whole mess ensues in large part because of the asymmetry in the recruiting class sizes. This is understandable if the prospects available don't fit and you have to have a leaner year followed by a fatter year. That is not in my view what happened here. What brought it on was simple class attrition, particularly in the current Junior class. The cause of the bulk of that attrition is well documented, it is not injuries, but rather character or other non-athletic issues that reduced the numbers in what would have been a stellar class.
I feel that Tressel and his staff has learnt this lesson in the most brutal of fashions. They are clearly selecting for athletic and also character, academic or other good virtues these days. They are selecting for survival of the fittest and that is good. It should help reduce the instances of class size asymmetry .
A Change in Tactic?
Could the recruiters get some of those sure bets to commit early? Right now the tendency is to suggest that the Buckeye lean make the most of the recruiting process. This means that they (and we) are often left holding our breath. It also means that you risk "losing the sale" to a family or the student athlete as they consider other offers. An extreme version of this approach is that taken by Texas, they seem to have the bulk of their class locked up well in advance of signing day. There are no surprises (or damned few), there are few AA appearances for their recruits - not that Texas does or should care about that. The risk is that you might lose a prospect to failure to qualify after NLOID - which is handled in some instances by adding the unused scholarship to next years class. (There are other remedies used elsewhere, but these are less advisable, or ethical).
Lessons for The Interested Spectator?
Probably the same one we all relearn each and every year. The word of a young kid, given choices matching or beyond their dreams, is worth its full weight when uttered in a public setting, and especially only if put on paper. The word of a kid translated through the pachinko Ouija board that is the Internet has somewhat less mass.
Lesson Two - simply restated and relearnt, is that this class isn't over, nor has the sky fallen. There will still be a class full of great recruits coming to Columbus this year. We do not know the final size, but we can be assured they all want to be Buckeyes. We can also be fairly certain that a steadier, less asymmetric class size will be the norm in this and coming years.
Oh, yes, and the AA game is a promo show for Notre Dame and its hype machine.
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