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SHANNON SHELTON: Bowl hopes hang in the balance
October 9, 2006
The idea that Michigan State could be 3-4 after next week will infuriate those who know where MSU could have been if the Spartans had beaten Notre Dame and Illinois and entered the Michigan game at 5-0.
But 3-4 is exactly where some had the Spartans after the Ohio State game. During the preseason, more than a few observers speculated that MSU could drop below .500 with losses to Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State and Pittsburgh.
They were wrong on one game, but substitute Illinois for Pitt and you've got... 3-4.
This all goes on the assumption that the Spartans will lose to top-ranked Ohio State on Saturday, a likely outcome unless MSU plays like it's 1998 and engineers another upset of a No. 1 Buckeyes team. With injuries hampering numerous players, that prospect is unlikely -- but a loss to the Buckeyes doesn't mean the Spartans are out of contention for a postseason appearance.
"This is the turning point of our season," said senior Kyle Cook. "We're halfway through, we're 3-3, we're .500. If we want to get to a bowl game, have a bowl season, this is where we've got to turn our season around. We've got to make something happen with the second half."
A few circumstances could play in the Spartans' favor. MSU will head into the easier part of its schedule, traveling to Northwestern and Indiana, playing Purdue and Minnesota at home and facing Penn State in State College over its last five games.
Northwestern and Indiana are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten, Purdue is 4-2 after playing a weak early schedule, and Minnesota is struggling without its usually solid running game.
Playing Penn State is always tricky, especially on the road, but the Nittany Lions are a shadow of the team that won a share of the Big Ten championship last year.
If the Spartans win their final five games, they'd finish 8-4 and earn a decent bowl berth. If they drop one of the final five, they're 7-5, as I predicted at the start of the year, and a candidate for the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando or the Insight Bowl in Tempe, Ariz.
Worst-case scenario to make a bowl game, MSU could drop two of its last five to finish 6-6, which could get the Spartans in the Insight Bowl if no other conference squads earn enough wins to qualify for the postseason. And there's always the Motor City Bowl, although that would be a disappointment based on the expectations MSU had for 2006.
The biggest concern is whether the Spartans can manage three wins, let alone four or five, after facing Ohio State. MSU could be in the midst of a four-game losing streak, and the Spartans' failure to beat a team like Illinois doesn't give the impression that they can count on wins over anyone this season.
An 8-4 finish could be enough to save John L. Smith's job, but a bowl-game win might be necessary if Smith finishes 7-5. For him to remain at MSU after this season, his team can't afford many slipups over the next six games, and potential 0-4 career records against Michigan and Ohio State won't help his cause.
Contact SHANNON SHELTON at 313-223-3215 or [email protected].
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