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- Thread starter 3yardsandacloud
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DBB's meaningless breakdown of last year's stats
To rehash an obvious albeit belaboured point, this year's defense will not be exactly the same as last year's defense. I say this only to disabuse anyone of the notion that this posts aspires to even a pretense of predicting this year's outcome. The point of what follows is simply to offer a numerical comparison of that which has been a topic of passionate discussion.
To wit: How special was NIU's rushing offense in comparison with OSU's rushing defense last year.
NIU's Rushing Offense averaged 4.92 yards per carry against DIA opposition last year. I factored out the game against Tennessee Tech. Those of you who are familiar with my analyses know that I always factor out DIAA competition.
NIU's opponents gave up 4.07 yards per carry against everyone else on their schedules (this is the average with their games against NIU factored out).
So NIU averaged 0.85 yards per carry MORE than their opponents gave up against the rest of their schedules. Not bad.
OSU's opponents, on the other hand averaged 4.67 YPC in games NOT against OSU. That is an INCREDIBLE stat. It was the toughest slate of rushing offenses faced by any defense in the country by a large margin.
Against this stout competition, the OSU D led the nation in rushing defense; giving up a scant 2.35 YPC.
So OSU gave up 2.32 YPC LESS than their opponents gained against the rest of their schedules. That's right; we nearly cut our opponents average YPC in HALF.
NIU FANS: This is not about disrespecting Wolfe. This is about how out of this world special the OSU defense has been against the rush under JT. Last year was amazing, but he's done it year after year and we have very good reason to believe that this year's defense will be cut from very similar if not the same cloth.
We have done this against the Texas and Minnesotas of the college football world. Wolfe will have an OK day against our defense; but we say this because we believe he is an outstanding back. Very good backs typically look like crap against us.
Yes, I know this sounds arrogant. Go back and read those stats again. The Buckeye fans on this site know that I did a similar comparison for every single bowl team last year. Trust me; no other team has accomplished anything remotely like this in terms of rushing defense. You're not going up against a team with a good tradition of rushing defense. You're up against the very best. We respect you for being a good team; but we expect nothing less than greatness from our Buckeyes.
To rehash an obvious albeit belaboured point, this year's defense will not be exactly the same as last year's defense. I say this only to disabuse anyone of the notion that this posts aspires to even a pretense of predicting this year's outcome. The point of what follows is simply to offer a numerical comparison of that which has been a topic of passionate discussion.
To wit: How special was NIU's rushing offense in comparison with OSU's rushing defense last year.
NIU's Rushing Offense averaged 4.92 yards per carry against DIA opposition last year. I factored out the game against Tennessee Tech. Those of you who are familiar with my analyses know that I always factor out DIAA competition.
NIU's opponents gave up 4.07 yards per carry against everyone else on their schedules (this is the average with their games against NIU factored out).
So NIU averaged 0.85 yards per carry MORE than their opponents gave up against the rest of their schedules. Not bad.
OSU's opponents, on the other hand averaged 4.67 YPC in games NOT against OSU. That is an INCREDIBLE stat. It was the toughest slate of rushing offenses faced by any defense in the country by a large margin.
Against this stout competition, the OSU D led the nation in rushing defense; giving up a scant 2.35 YPC.
So OSU gave up 2.32 YPC LESS than their opponents gained against the rest of their schedules. That's right; we nearly cut our opponents average YPC in HALF.
NIU FANS: This is not about disrespecting Wolfe. This is about how out of this world special the OSU defense has been against the rush under JT. Last year was amazing, but he's done it year after year and we have very good reason to believe that this year's defense will be cut from very similar if not the same cloth.
We have done this against the Texas and Minnesotas of the college football world. Wolfe will have an OK day against our defense; but we say this because we believe he is an outstanding back. Very good backs typically look like crap against us.
Yes, I know this sounds arrogant. Go back and read those stats again. The Buckeye fans on this site know that I did a similar comparison for every single bowl team last year. Trust me; no other team has accomplished anything remotely like this in terms of rushing defense. You're not going up against a team with a good tradition of rushing defense. You're up against the very best. We respect you for being a good team; but we expect nothing less than greatness from our Buckeyes.
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Yeah, but we didn't face anyone like Wolfe.
Seriously, GPA for you. Great analysis as always.
If we go with that theme, Wolfe had 242 carries for 1580 yards (6.53 ypc and 175.56 ypg) in nine games (26.89 cpg) last season. If we were to hold true to form, and Wolfe did get his 27 carries (which I highly doubt), he would still only get about 88 yards which would about 3.26 ypc. Even if he were average an even 4 ypc, he'd still need 25 carries to reach the century mark, and I doubt he'll be doing a whole lot of running in the second half down by 24-31 points.
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spadukins
Senior
Let's talk for a minute about one of our 2005 common opponents: scUM.
First of all, the 2005 version of scUM was a joke. Very much so. What I was trying to say in my previous post was that the scUM team that NIU faced in game 1 was (at the time) very likely the worst scUM team to take the field in probably a couple decades. However, as the 2005 season transpired, Michigan (like most teams with a wealth of talent) improved quite a bit.
NIU played Michigan when they were at their worst while Ohio State played Michigan while they were probably at their best. Both games were at AA. In September Michigan (from a defensive standpoint) was in shambles. They just flat out weren't that good and they still beat NIU by 16 points going away. In November, in a rivalry game, a scUM team with an entire seasons worth of experience to build on was able to get it up and play a close game. Ohio State wins by 4 as the scUM defense bends and then breaks late in the game.
If results vs. scUM were all that mattered (it's not) then on raw statistics alone tOSU was 20 points better than NIU last season (that's blow out territory). Take into consideration that the scUM team improved at least a little bit from game 1 to game 11 and then it seems tOSU was more than 20 points better than NIU last year.
If NIU had a legit rival you'd know that there was nothing "barely" about the Buckeyes win in AA last November. Wins in AA for Ohio State (at least until JT came along) were few and far between. The Buckeyes just aren't gonna blow Michigan out when playing in their house. JT is 4-1 vs. scUM.
Three of those four wins were by 3, 4, and 5 points. Rivalry games are alot different than out of conference season openers. Who's NIU's biggest rival?
Michigan was still the best team NIU played last year. This year's Ohio State team will be 10 times better than that. NIU will have to be 20 times better than they were last year to challenge in this game. Is NIU 20 times better than last year? The answer you are looking for is no. N-O that spells no! Dude, stay in Illinois. It's the right thing to do.
Oh, I'm also still waiting for you to tell me about this NIU defense that is supposedly gonna keep you in this game. Not happening. I had to laugh though. I looked up NIU in my Lindy's 2006 Football preview. Is Garrett Wolfe really only 5'7" 173 lbs? That's even smaller than Tyrell Sutton from Northwestern. It's the Silver Bullets vs. Mighty Mouse. There ought to be a law!
I looked at NIU's 2005 schedule and I don't care how many yds Wolfe gained last year. They came against suspect competition. Tyrell Sutton is alot more impressive in my opinion playing in the Big Ten and all. Plus Sutton is bigger (5'9" 190 lbs ). I'd rather have Sutton than Wolfe!
The worst thing about this match up from a buckeye fans perspective is having a deluded fan from an vastly inferior team come on to our site and preach to us about who's supposedly who and what's supposedly what in world of college football. We are THE OHIO STATE BUCKEYES baby! Since the days when my grandfather was a young man, nobody has won more football games! You need to know your role an adhere to it! Your role is small college also ran. It's just the way of things.
Best of luck come September. That's the only way NIU stays in the game. Luck. If you do travel to Columbus don't forget your rabbit's foot. You can also take comfort in the fact that the game is being played in a horse shoe. Aren't horse shoes supposed to be lucky somehow? I'll have to google that. At any rate, sweet dreams this summer. Enjoy your chest thumping while you can!
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3yardsandacloud
Administrator Emeritus
Well after spending a good portion of my reading day getting caught up on this thread, here's my impression.
Cut G-FORCE a little slack.
Will Wolfe run for 100? I doubt it, but who knows? I see a guy (GF) who has come to talk football. He's been generally very respectful and has only returned in kind when pressed. Even then he's been restrained. He's kept the discussion on football and has used stats, insight and clips to help support his claims. He certainly isn't predicting victory or even that Wolfe will dominate this game. He's outnumbered a bajillion to one (basically) here, yet has consistently given us information about his team when asked. This is much more than can be said for a few Texas fans in another thread. Do we really want to drive off the only real NIU fan that has ventured over with a commitment to discuss the game?
He's passionate about his team and extremely geeked about their RB. No crime in that. That just makes me want to watch Wolfe even more. I certainly don't use total yards gained as the only measure of a runningback's ability. As their main weapon, Wolfe will be fighting an uphill battle. Maybe he'll bust off a few runs ... or maybe he'll make some incredible runs just to get back to the line of scrimmage. I know I'll be watching, and I think that's been G-FORCE's main point ... "Here's a great player on my team, watch him".
Finally I hope we can keep from disparaging NIU and the MAC as a weaker team/conference. We really sound arrogant when doing this (think typical ND fan). We know the caliber is different. G-FORCE knows the caliber is different. He isn't suggesting otherwise. We play the games for a reason. It's that slight chance that G-FORCE is betting on and I don't fault him for that.
I guess I just don't see this like NCST, or Washington, or Miami (OH), or any of the numerous other fans that thought they would not only play with the Bucks, but quite possibly beat them.
(Not sure how I ended up on this soapbox, but it's time to jump off
)
Cut G-FORCE a little slack.
Will Wolfe run for 100? I doubt it, but who knows? I see a guy (GF) who has come to talk football. He's been generally very respectful and has only returned in kind when pressed. Even then he's been restrained. He's kept the discussion on football and has used stats, insight and clips to help support his claims. He certainly isn't predicting victory or even that Wolfe will dominate this game. He's outnumbered a bajillion to one (basically) here, yet has consistently given us information about his team when asked. This is much more than can be said for a few Texas fans in another thread. Do we really want to drive off the only real NIU fan that has ventured over with a commitment to discuss the game?
He's passionate about his team and extremely geeked about their RB. No crime in that. That just makes me want to watch Wolfe even more. I certainly don't use total yards gained as the only measure of a runningback's ability. As their main weapon, Wolfe will be fighting an uphill battle. Maybe he'll bust off a few runs ... or maybe he'll make some incredible runs just to get back to the line of scrimmage. I know I'll be watching, and I think that's been G-FORCE's main point ... "Here's a great player on my team, watch him".
Finally I hope we can keep from disparaging NIU and the MAC as a weaker team/conference. We really sound arrogant when doing this (think typical ND fan). We know the caliber is different. G-FORCE knows the caliber is different. He isn't suggesting otherwise. We play the games for a reason. It's that slight chance that G-FORCE is betting on and I don't fault him for that.
I guess I just don't see this like NCST, or Washington, or Miami (OH), or any of the numerous other fans that thought they would not only play with the Bucks, but quite possibly beat them.
(Not sure how I ended up on this soapbox, but it's time to jump off
)
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OregonBuckeye
Semper Fi Buckeyes
Well after spending a good portion of my reading day getting caught up on this thread, here's my impression.
Cut G-FORCE a little slack.
Will Wolfe run for 100? I doubt it, but who knows? I see a guy (GF) who has come to talk football. He's been generally very respectful and has only returned in kind when pressed. Even then he's been restrained. He's kept the discussion on football and has used stats, insight and clips to help support his claims. He certainly isn't predicting victory or even that Wolfe will dominate this game. He's outnumbered a bajillion to one (basically) here, yet has consistently given us information about his team when asked. This is much more than can be said for a few Texas fans in another thread. Do we really want to drive off the only real NIU fan that has ventured over with a commitment to discuss the game?
He's passionate about his team and extremely geeked about their RB. No crime in that. That just makes me want to watch Wolfe even more. I certainly don't use total yards gained as the only measure of a runningback's ability. As their main weapon, Wolfe will be fighting an uphill battle. Maybe he'll bust off a few runs ... or maybe he'll make some incredible runs just to get back to the line of scrimmage. I know I'll be watching, and I think that's been G-FORCE's main point ... "Here's a great player on my team, watch him".
Finally I hope we can keep from disparaging NIU and the MAC as a weaker team/conference. We really sound arrogant when doing this (think typical ND fan). We know the caliber is different. G-FORCE knows the caliber is different. He isn't suggesting otherwise. We play the games for a reason. It's that slight chance that G-FORCE is betting on and I don't fault him for that.
I guess I just don't see this like NCST, or Washington, or Miami (OH), or any of the numerous other fans that thought they would not only play with the Bucks, but quite possibly beat them.
(Not sure how I ended up on this soapbox, but it's time to jump off
I agree. Good post.
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0