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First Cat-2 (or greater) Hurricane to hit USA mainland in 2011

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BB73

BB73

Loves Buckeye History
Staff member
Bookie
'16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner
Betting on which Hurricane will be the first big one to hit the US mainland isn't going to affect when or whether it happens.

We do hope that there's no loss of life, and that the property damage is limited. But August sucks as a month in sports, so we need something for a vBet.

NOTE - if there aren't any by 5 pm ET on Nov, 22 - the vBet will be settled in time for betting on The Game.

074-095 mph winds = Cat-1 (Note - Cat-1 will not win this vBet)
096-110 mph winds = Cat-2
111-130 mph winds = Cat-3
131-155 mph winds = Cat-4
>= 156 mph winds = Cat-5

Here is the list of names for the rest of 2011.

Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

In the event that more than 21 named hurricanes occur in the Atlantic in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, etc.
 
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BB73;1963897; said:
Betting on which Hurricane will be the first big one to hit the US mainland isn't going to affect when or whether it happens.
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Looking at the language, I think it would be nice to clarify what "hit the US mainland" means, given the tracks that are possible in this storm. It makes no difference to me how you rule on this Bill, but should we interpret "hit" as a Cat 2 hurricane eye striking/traveling over land - or in the case of a near miss to a state where the hurricane never makes landfall on any US soil, do we consider it a "hit" if any part of the US mainland experiences Cat 2 winds?

I would suggest the latter interpretation as being good enough to collect the bet, as your making the Category system an integral part of the bet suggests that mere wind speed experienced be the determinative factor, and not the geography the eye meets.

Finally - are the outer bank islands on Georgia and the Carolinas a part of the "mainland" US? Certainly many inhabited towns on the other side of the inter-coastal but connected by bridges are always considered to be a part of the United States. Then again, I would think that an uninhabited outer bank island - accessible only by boat, with nothing on it save some unmanned weather station - would certainly not be considered "mainland".

This Bad Girl could present all of those issues. Inquiring lawyers want to know. :lol:
 
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I was thinking about this yesterday. The National Hurricane Center tracks these stats, so their determination will be used to settle this bet. It's where I went in order to come up with the odds.

I think the answer is that the eye has to hit the 'coastline' at a point when the hurricane is still officially a Cat-2 or greater. I'm guessing that barrier islands will count, but whatever the Hurricane Center says will decide if Irene makes landfall and ends this vBet.

Link of landfall's definition:

The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur.
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Yep. "Hit" = "Landfall" solves all of those gray areas, and specifically addresses the hypo of Cat two winds being experienced in an area of land that has not experienced "landfall". Works for me.
 
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