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Deal or No Deal

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bucks4me said:
Have you guys voted for a case on the "lucky case game"?
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I never tried the lucky case game.... I do like the show and I agree with Thump about choosing "Lucky Numbers"... it can get old at time but it's always interesting when it gets down to taking one or two cases at a time.

I did think it was funny a few weeks ago when the person broke the little plastic box that hold the button and then the banker took off $10 from his offer. I think they need to make it more intersting like when they offered the guy the money plus the Hummer.
 
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AJHawkfan said:
I hate Howie Mandel and stupid people.
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A little redundant there AJ.

Love watching greedy morons who have no concept of statistical probability.
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Not to nitpick too much, but statistical probability is informal speech for frequency probability. (Just a pet peeve of mine when these two separate areas are combined together like that :)). From a mathematical point of view, I look at this game show first as a simple probability and then, when the banker gets involved coupled with the values still on the board, I look at it as an expected value. The true ignorance comes about when amounts are eliminated and folks think that the probabilities have changed. Probability of a single event happening is based on the original sample space.
 
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MolGenBuckeye said:
What do you mean by this part? The probability of getting a remaining amount on the board does increase as you remove other amounts, right?

Maybe I'm misinterpreting?
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None of the cases change or move, they're simply eliminated. At the start of the game, you pick a case to keep, then six more to open. As the number of cases dwindles, the probability that you either have the $1,000,000 case or will open it has not changed.

People perceive that you have a better chance as you continue because your odds progress from 25:1, 24:1 ... 6:1, 5:1, etc. As there are fewer cases to chose from, your odds of opening the biggest case go up in favor of the game, but not the probability.
 
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scooter1369 said:
It was cool the first week. It got boring fast.
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It was the reverse for me, the first time I saw the show I thought, 'Gee, a bunch of people picking random numbers and opening cases -- this is about as exciting as watching other people scratch of lottery tickets.' I figured the show would be off the air in a month. I'm kind of into it now, though, because its fun watching peoples thought process when they get greedy.

If it were me, I'm taking the first deal that hits six digits. Unless you have absurdly bad luck opening cases on the first three rounds, you will get an offer north of $100,000. I don't need $1M. $100,000 would be enough to drastically change my life, eliminating a 30 year mortgage outright to where I could begin saving for a healthy, early retirement.
 
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Dryden said:
It was the reverse for me, the first time I saw the show I thought, 'Gee, a bunch of people picking random numbers and opening cases -- this is about as exciting as watching other people scratch of lottery tickets.' I figured the show would be off the air in a month. I'm kind of into it now, though, because its fun watching peoples thought process when they get greedy.

If it were me, I'm taking the first deal that hits six digits. Unless you have absurdly bad luck opening cases on the first three rounds, you will get an offer north of $100,000. I don't need $1M. $100,000 would be enough to drastically change my life, eliminating a 30 year mortgage outright to where I could begin saving for a healthy, early retirement.
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that's exactly my thought process.....once I hit 6 digits I'm good. unless of course there are nothing but 6 digit numbers on the board. then I'm going all the way no matter what. worst cast scenario....i win $100,000.
 
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Dryden said:
None of the cases change or move, they're simply eliminated. At the start of the game, you pick a case to keep, then six more to open. As the number of cases dwindles, the probability that you either have the $1,000,000 case or will open it has not changed.

People perceive that you have a better chance as you continue because your odds progress from 25:1, 24:1 ... 6:1, 5:1, etc. As there are fewer cases to chose from, your odds of opening the biggest case go up in favor of the game, but not the probability.
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Gotcha. I had the concepts, but was mistakenly using the words interchangeably.
 
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I'm not a huge fan of the show but do like the suprises - when they throw in the Hummer or fly in grandma from India. I'm hooked on the Deadliest Catch show. Absolutely crazy to be fishing in those conditions on some of those boats.
 
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Gotta love someone who has 6 dollar amounts under $700 and one big value and don't take the bankers offer.
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I agree that it's pretty unlikely that the amount in that person's case is going to be higher than whatever offer they have at the time is, but if you aren't playing for what's in your case and are instead playing the offers it's not that stupid to keep guessing. You have a 6/7 chance that you will eliminate one of the low number and your offer will go up. Same thing with your odds changing as you play. The odds of having 1 million in your case remain the same, but the odds of eliminating low numbers and raising your offer can change.
 
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