What are the chances of the United States getting a medal?
Was going to post an eventual preview but I'll just do it here:
Definitely going to be tough to reach the medal stand. Fiji are the gold favorites going in as they won the '15-16 World Rugby Sevens Series title over South Africa and New Zealand. The US finished in 6th but this was really their first year of being competitive from start to finish throughout the season. The US finished 3rd in the tournament stop in UAE, 4th in Vegas and 3rd in London with the rest of their finishes usually being around 6th or 7th. So this proves in this format they can reach the podium. The Pacific Rim nations (Fiji, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia) finished 1-4 in the World Rugby Sevens Series and will be the favorites for medals undoubtedly. The teams with an outside chance at the podium include Argentina, Kenya and the US, although Great Britain should be formidable as a combined team which essentially amounts to an all-star team of English, Welsh and Scottish players. As such they were actually seeded a spot above Australia. Spain, Japan, Brazil and France have almost zero chance of reaching the podium.
First job is getting out of the pool...the top two move on. There are three pools of four teams, so the field is much narrower than in the World Rugby Sevens Series. The US (#6 overall seed) drew Fiji (#1), Argentina (#7) and the host nation Brazil (#12). Fiji will be heavily favored. The US and Argentina are pretty evenly matched. And Brazil is a cupcake.
The US gets Argentina first which amounts to a must win game right out the gate. The Argentinians are some of the most efficient tacklers...an area where the US struggled all year. They play very physical which will contrast both New Zealand and the US. The US beat Argentina in Hong Kong and then got smoked by them in Paris. Then they get Brazil, which should be an easy win, and then finish with Fiji. Fiji is just so balanced and are lead by the brilliant head coach Ben Ryan. Any one of their players is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. You have to keep the ball away from them somehow. The US was 1-4 against Fiji in the series this year but the largest margin of victory was only 10 points.
Here is a good breakdown of the US team, lead by captain Madison Hughes, who I coached against when he was at Dartmouth, the electric Perry Baker, who has played for Columbus based 1823 and Tiger Rugby and might be the fastest player in the tournament if not for teammate and surprise pick Carlin Isles (originally from Jackson HS in Massillon) and Danny Barrett (see below against Argentina):
http://www.goffrugbyreport.com/news/look-mens-olympic-rugby-team
