The Honeymoon Ends
After Jim Tressel won the National Championship in 2002, virtually every fan you'd talk to was ready to let Tressel coach at Ohio State for so long as he'd be able. But, after Ohio State lost to #3 USC this past Saturday 18-15, a growing number of fans have taken to wondering if maybe it's time to let Coach go on his merry way. Frustrations about a history of a less than exciting offense paired with yet another "big game" loss have boiled over and some Buckeye fans believe Ohio State could do better.
Careful What You Wish For
What follows will consider only those coaches who have won a National Title since 2002. There are certainly other coaches who might be considered, despite not having a crystal football on their mantles. Likewise, as you'll see, some of the coaches discussed would never be seriously considered for the head job at Ohio State. None-the-less, we're comparing a Coach in Jim Tressel with his peers who have also attained the highest level of success and that seems fair. That is to say, if Buckeye fans think that Tressel is not "getting it done" we should consider those who have a history of getting it done, no?
The data below will concern only losses and will draw conclusions based on that "loss-side" data. That said, it is recognized that there is a "win-side" analysis which might offset, or even completely demolish, whatever insights we might gain by considering the loss-side data. In any case, let's have a look at how Coach Tressel has compared to other Title winning coaches since 2002.
Jim Tressel
Date........Rk..Team........Rec...Score...Rk...Tea m.......Score
09-12-2009..#3..USC.........(2-0)..18......#8..Ohio State..15
01-05-2009..#3..Texas......(12-1)..24.....#10..Ohio State..21
10-25-2008..#3..Penn State.(11-2)..13......#9..Ohio state...6
09-13-2008..#1..USC........(12-1)..35......#5..Ohio State...3
01-07-2008..#2..LSU........(12-2)..38......#1..Ohio State..24
11-10-2007..NR..Illinois....(9-4)..28......#1..Ohio State..21
01-08-2001..#2..Florida....(12-1)..41......#1..Ohio State..14
10-08-2005.#16..Penn State.(12-1)..17......#6..Ohio State..10
09-10-2005..#2..Texas......(13-0)..25......#4..Ohio State..22
11-13-2004..NR..Purdue......(7-5)..24......NR..Ohio State..17
10-16-2004..NR..Iowa.......(10-2)..33.....#25..Ohio State...7
10-09-2004.#15..Wisconsin...(9-3)..24.....#18..Ohio State..13
10-02-2004..NR..Northwestern(6-6)..33......#7..Ohio state..27
11-22-2003..#5..Michigan...(10-3)..35......#4..Ohio State..21
10-11-2003.#23..Wisconsin...(7-6)..17......#3..Ohio State..10
Total Losses: 15
Losses to Top 5 team: 8
Losses to Top 25 team: 11
Losses to Unranked Team: 4
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked: 3
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked in top 10: 2
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked in Top 5: 1
Losses to team with losing record: 0
Observations
53% of Tressel's losses since 2002 season began have come against teams rated in the top 5 of the AP poll at the time of the contest. Likewise, 73% of his losses have come against Top 25 competition, and thus only 27% against unranked teams.
There are some "ugly" losses up there, to be sure. 2003 Wisconsin (7-6) and 2004 Purdue (7-5) and 2004 Northwestern (6-6) stick out pretty significantly. In fairness, however, the 2004 losses were sustained by Ohio State's worst team (record wise) in the data set. The 2003 Wisconsin loss didn't appear as bad as Wisconsin's final record would indicate at the time of the loss itself, but in retrospect, it is fair to call it a good Ohio State team losing to a bad team.
And then there are the "blow outs" For purposes of this discussion, a blow out will be any game in which the Buckeyes lost by 2 TDs or more. I'm not sure that's a true "blow out" but what the heck. Those games are: USC 2008, LSU 2007 BCS Championship Game, 2006 Florida BCS Championship Game, 2004 Iowa, and 2003 Michigan. If we make the cut off 15, the list shrinks by 2 losing the LSU and Michigan games. Frankly, I'm not convinced a 15 point loss is a blow out either. In any case, the ones the remains, 2008 USC, 2006 Florida and 2004 Iowa seem to qualify as blow outs no matter what line we might draw.
None-the-less, there is not one team on that list which had a losing record. We can conclude, then, that Tressel doesn't lose games to teams which are dreadful. Indeed, Ohio State hasn't lost a game to even a middling team since Purdue 2004. I might consider Illinois as middling, but they did gain a BCS berth that season (2007), even if Buckeye fans question how much they might have "deserved" it. In fact, since that 2004 Purdue loss, Ohio State's only loss to a team NOT in the top 10 indeed, top 3, was against a #16 at the time PSU team that ended up being top 5, and the aforementioned Illinois game.
The last 5 losses have come against teams with an average rating of 2.4. The last 9 losses have come against opponents with an average rating of 6.4 (Illinois was given 26 points for the purposes of the calculation). Sure, it would have been nice to even win half of those, but there might not be another team in the nation which can make the same claim - losing only to the very, very best if or when they lose at all.
After Jim Tressel won the National Championship in 2002, virtually every fan you'd talk to was ready to let Tressel coach at Ohio State for so long as he'd be able. But, after Ohio State lost to #3 USC this past Saturday 18-15, a growing number of fans have taken to wondering if maybe it's time to let Coach go on his merry way. Frustrations about a history of a less than exciting offense paired with yet another "big game" loss have boiled over and some Buckeye fans believe Ohio State could do better.
Careful What You Wish For
What follows will consider only those coaches who have won a National Title since 2002. There are certainly other coaches who might be considered, despite not having a crystal football on their mantles. Likewise, as you'll see, some of the coaches discussed would never be seriously considered for the head job at Ohio State. None-the-less, we're comparing a Coach in Jim Tressel with his peers who have also attained the highest level of success and that seems fair. That is to say, if Buckeye fans think that Tressel is not "getting it done" we should consider those who have a history of getting it done, no?
The data below will concern only losses and will draw conclusions based on that "loss-side" data. That said, it is recognized that there is a "win-side" analysis which might offset, or even completely demolish, whatever insights we might gain by considering the loss-side data. In any case, let's have a look at how Coach Tressel has compared to other Title winning coaches since 2002.
Jim Tressel
Date........Rk..Team........Rec...Score...Rk...Tea m.......Score
09-12-2009..#3..USC.........(2-0)..18......#8..Ohio State..15
01-05-2009..#3..Texas......(12-1)..24.....#10..Ohio State..21
10-25-2008..#3..Penn State.(11-2)..13......#9..Ohio state...6
09-13-2008..#1..USC........(12-1)..35......#5..Ohio State...3
01-07-2008..#2..LSU........(12-2)..38......#1..Ohio State..24
11-10-2007..NR..Illinois....(9-4)..28......#1..Ohio State..21
01-08-2001..#2..Florida....(12-1)..41......#1..Ohio State..14
10-08-2005.#16..Penn State.(12-1)..17......#6..Ohio State..10
09-10-2005..#2..Texas......(13-0)..25......#4..Ohio State..22
11-13-2004..NR..Purdue......(7-5)..24......NR..Ohio State..17
10-16-2004..NR..Iowa.......(10-2)..33.....#25..Ohio State...7
10-09-2004.#15..Wisconsin...(9-3)..24.....#18..Ohio State..13
10-02-2004..NR..Northwestern(6-6)..33......#7..Ohio state..27
11-22-2003..#5..Michigan...(10-3)..35......#4..Ohio State..21
10-11-2003.#23..Wisconsin...(7-6)..17......#3..Ohio State..10
Total Losses: 15
Losses to Top 5 team: 8
Losses to Top 25 team: 11
Losses to Unranked Team: 4
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked: 3
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked in top 10: 2
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked in Top 5: 1
Losses to team with losing record: 0
Observations
53% of Tressel's losses since 2002 season began have come against teams rated in the top 5 of the AP poll at the time of the contest. Likewise, 73% of his losses have come against Top 25 competition, and thus only 27% against unranked teams.
There are some "ugly" losses up there, to be sure. 2003 Wisconsin (7-6) and 2004 Purdue (7-5) and 2004 Northwestern (6-6) stick out pretty significantly. In fairness, however, the 2004 losses were sustained by Ohio State's worst team (record wise) in the data set. The 2003 Wisconsin loss didn't appear as bad as Wisconsin's final record would indicate at the time of the loss itself, but in retrospect, it is fair to call it a good Ohio State team losing to a bad team.
And then there are the "blow outs" For purposes of this discussion, a blow out will be any game in which the Buckeyes lost by 2 TDs or more. I'm not sure that's a true "blow out" but what the heck. Those games are: USC 2008, LSU 2007 BCS Championship Game, 2006 Florida BCS Championship Game, 2004 Iowa, and 2003 Michigan. If we make the cut off 15, the list shrinks by 2 losing the LSU and Michigan games. Frankly, I'm not convinced a 15 point loss is a blow out either. In any case, the ones the remains, 2008 USC, 2006 Florida and 2004 Iowa seem to qualify as blow outs no matter what line we might draw.
None-the-less, there is not one team on that list which had a losing record. We can conclude, then, that Tressel doesn't lose games to teams which are dreadful. Indeed, Ohio State hasn't lost a game to even a middling team since Purdue 2004. I might consider Illinois as middling, but they did gain a BCS berth that season (2007), even if Buckeye fans question how much they might have "deserved" it. In fact, since that 2004 Purdue loss, Ohio State's only loss to a team NOT in the top 10 indeed, top 3, was against a #16 at the time PSU team that ended up being top 5, and the aforementioned Illinois game.
The last 5 losses have come against teams with an average rating of 2.4. The last 9 losses have come against opponents with an average rating of 6.4 (Illinois was given 26 points for the purposes of the calculation). Sure, it would have been nice to even win half of those, but there might not be another team in the nation which can make the same claim - losing only to the very, very best if or when they lose at all.
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you beat my edit