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Common Opponents

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Carmen Ohio

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I thought this was interesting as we go into "THE GAME".

From Cleveland.com:

Taking a look at common Big 10 opponents for OSU and Michigan are as follows: 1) OSU defeated Indiana by 31 on the road and Michigan beat them by 27 at home; 2) Michigan defeated Northwestern by 16 on the road and OSU beat the Wildcats by 41 at home; 3) Michigan lost by a field goal to Minnesota at home and OSU won in the Metrodome by 14; 4) OSU lost to Penn State by 7 on the road and Michigan scored a touchdown on the last play of the game to tame the Lions by 2; 5) OSU beat Iowa by 25 at home at Michigan won at Iowa in overtime; 6) Michigan won at Michigan State by a field goal in overtime and OSU overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Spartans by 11 at home. Just using these games as a guideline and OSU playing at Michigan on Saturday, how do you see that contest?
 
Carmen Ohio said:
I thought this was interesting as we go into "THE GAME".

From Cleveland.com:

Taking a look at common Big 10 opponents for OSU and Michigan are as follows: 1) OSU defeated Indiana by 31 on the road and Michigan beat them by 27 at home; 2) Michigan defeated Northwestern by 16 on the road and OSU beat the Wildcats by 41 at home; 3) Michigan lost by a field goal to Minnesota at home and OSU won in the Metrodome by 14; 4) OSU lost to Penn State by 7 on the road and Michigan scored a touchdown on the last play of the game to tame the Lions by 2; 5) OSU beat Iowa by 25 at home at Michigan won at Iowa in overtime; 6) Michigan won at Michigan State by a field goal in overtime and OSU overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Spartans by 11 at home. Just using these games as a guideline and OSU playing at Michigan on Saturday, how do you see that contest?
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none of this matters. you could have said the exact same thing last year when we lost to northwestern and michigan walked all over them. it turned out that we kicked the crap out of them. absolutely no stats matter for this game, its pure heart and who wants it more
 
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Carmen Ohio said:
I thought this was interesting as we go into "THE GAME".

From Cleveland.com:

Taking a look at common Big 10 opponents for OSU and Michigan are as follows: 1) OSU defeated Indiana by 31 on the road and Michigan beat them by 27 at home; 2) Michigan defeated Northwestern by 16 on the road and OSU beat the Wildcats by 41 at home; 3) Michigan lost by a field goal to Minnesota at home and OSU won in the Metrodome by 14; 4) OSU lost to Penn State by 7 on the road and Michigan scored a touchdown on the last play of the game to tame the Lions by 2; 5) OSU beat Iowa by 25 at home at Michigan won at Iowa in overtime; 6) Michigan won at Michigan State by a field goal in overtime and OSU overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Spartans by 11 at home. Just using these games as a guideline and OSU playing at Michigan on Saturday, how do you see that contest?
Click to expand...

I'd like to buy into that but its essentially meaningless.
 
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illinoisbuckeye said:
none of this matters. you could have said the exact same thing last year when we lost to northwestern and michigan walked all over them. it turned out that we kicked the crap out of them. absolutely no stats matter for this game, its pure heart and who wants it more
Click to expand...

That's exactly right. Previous stats mean nothing in this game, you would think people would have learned that during the 90's.
 
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Carmen Ohio said:
Some more "meaningless" numbers:

National Scoring Offense:
OSU 23
Mich 40

National Total Offense:
OSU 37
Mich 49

National Scoring Defense:
OSU 5
Mich 18

National Total Defense:
OSU 5
Mich 36
Click to expand...

Don't forget:

National Rushing Defense:
OSU 2
Mich 48

I'll take these stats, which show sustained performance across the entire season, over the results of common opponents any day.
 
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The only common opponent I'd love to think is an example is Minnesota. Their beating Michigan in Ann Arbor and us beating the Gophers on their field could tell us something. While I agree there is little you can read into the common opponents thing... I think our defensive stats will hold up.
 
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Some more "meaningless" numbers:

National Scoring Offense:
OSU 23
Mich 40

National Total Offense:
OSU 37
Mich 49

National Scoring Defense:
OSU 5
Mich 18

National Total Defense:
OSU 5
Mich 36
Click to expand...


The reason the transitive property of logic doesn't apply to football (i.e. team A beats team B, team B beats team C therefore team A > team C) is that its such a sport of individual matchups and styles.

scUM is still a team designed to stop the power running game and in turn inflict a power running game on its opponents. I know they are trying to get more spread oriented both offensively and defensively, but for right now thats their game.

OSU otoh has had that moment of revelation and is very good with spread philosophies both offensively and defensively.

Therefore just because we beat a common opponent worse than they did doesn't mean we will do the same to scUM. Its just a match up thing. Wisky gives us absolute fits but scUM(up till this year) has had their number. It doesn't mean that scUM will easily beat us(see the 3-1 record under JT).

Now the national rankings you gave out are more of an accuarte snapshot, B10 only stats would be even more accurate and as DBB frequently shows us comparing how a team does vs its opponents average is the very best statistical analysis tool you can use for football.

All that said, we should absolutely pound scUM on paper but imo Turnovers and Red Zone scoring will decide who really wins on the field. Rivalry games are just different, I know it's a cliche but you really can throw out the numbers for this one. Its just a war and test of wills.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
The reason the transitive property of logic doesn't apply to football (i.e. team A beats team B, team B beats team C therefore team A > team C) is that its such a sport of individual matchups and styles.
Click to expand...

As a former player, believe me... I know that. But it is interesting to look back at the season and take some comfort in how we stand before THE GAME. How we played common opponents isn't reliable in predicting the outcome but it does give you a level of expectation. Be honest, if we lost wouldn't you be a little more pissed knowing Minnesota beat them there? Maybe I should have deleted the original poster's final question.
 
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