So 24-22 at about the quarter pole of the season. Things I think I see:
Run Creation:
This is the "unluckiest" team in baseball. They actually draw walks well (6th/10.4%), They do strike out a lot still (26th/23.9%) BUT they are showing decent power (ISO 7th/.165). So how do you then have only a .311 team OBP? You pair that with a team BABIP of .267 which is good for 30th in MLB. At the end of the day when adjusted for ball park they are 23rd in wRC+ with a 94.
At the end of the day they are 13th in Runs scored which is the ultimate result of all of it, the underlying elements would seem to suggest there is a little more in the tank if the bounces start balancing out but all in all the offense is average and isn't likely to be more than that on a consistent basis.
Run Prevention:
Staring Pitchers:
They walk way too many guys (24th/3.75 BB/9) and don't strike out anyone (28th/6.81 K/9) so when you look at what many consider the quick litmus test of "talent" in a pitcher or group of them the Reds starters are 29th in MLB in K-bb% at a laughably pathetic 7.8% (Rockies are last at 7.2%, league best is 19.2%). So as one would expect of any staff that hasn't seen it's top two starters all year. They are not overpowering. So those are some of the basic components, the on field results so far are 24th in ERA- which is about what you'd expect given the underlying numbers. In traditional counting stats you see them 20th in Runs allowed so no big discrepancy there. Burns obviously has some arm talent, the rest are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
Bullpen:
Woof
Dead fucking last in BB/9 so how many guys they strike out doesn't even really matter. You just can't walk that many, that often, as a reliever and not get punished for it. 26th in ERA- and 26th in Runs a allowed would seem to bear that out.
Defense:
I'll just go with the Fielding Bible, Defensive Runs saved and it's a -2 as a team, good for 21st in MLB.
So all in all you have a
C- kind of offense,
a C- starting 5 that could maybe be a solid B with some health and
a D- to F bullpen that has a
C- to D+ defense behind them.
This is not a .500 team folks. FanGraphs has them at 55-61 the rest of the way and I would agree with something in that range. There is just nothing above average to point to. They are average at best to flat out to bad in every component of the game.
Maybe the offense gets a little better and maybe the starters get a little better with Greene and Blister Bitch but even if you get all that, I doubt it's enough to over come the shit bullpen and the shit defense.
Run Creation:
This is the "unluckiest" team in baseball. They actually draw walks well (6th/10.4%), They do strike out a lot still (26th/23.9%) BUT they are showing decent power (ISO 7th/.165). So how do you then have only a .311 team OBP? You pair that with a team BABIP of .267 which is good for 30th in MLB. At the end of the day when adjusted for ball park they are 23rd in wRC+ with a 94.
At the end of the day they are 13th in Runs scored which is the ultimate result of all of it, the underlying elements would seem to suggest there is a little more in the tank if the bounces start balancing out but all in all the offense is average and isn't likely to be more than that on a consistent basis.
Run Prevention:
Staring Pitchers:
They walk way too many guys (24th/3.75 BB/9) and don't strike out anyone (28th/6.81 K/9) so when you look at what many consider the quick litmus test of "talent" in a pitcher or group of them the Reds starters are 29th in MLB in K-bb% at a laughably pathetic 7.8% (Rockies are last at 7.2%, league best is 19.2%). So as one would expect of any staff that hasn't seen it's top two starters all year. They are not overpowering. So those are some of the basic components, the on field results so far are 24th in ERA- which is about what you'd expect given the underlying numbers. In traditional counting stats you see them 20th in Runs allowed so no big discrepancy there. Burns obviously has some arm talent, the rest are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
Bullpen:
Woof
Dead fucking last in BB/9 so how many guys they strike out doesn't even really matter. You just can't walk that many, that often, as a reliever and not get punished for it. 26th in ERA- and 26th in Runs a allowed would seem to bear that out.
Defense:
I'll just go with the Fielding Bible, Defensive Runs saved and it's a -2 as a team, good for 21st in MLB.
So all in all you have a
C- kind of offense,
a C- starting 5 that could maybe be a solid B with some health and
a D- to F bullpen that has a
C- to D+ defense behind them.
This is not a .500 team folks. FanGraphs has them at 55-61 the rest of the way and I would agree with something in that range. There is just nothing above average to point to. They are average at best to flat out to bad in every component of the game.
Maybe the offense gets a little better and maybe the starters get a little better with Greene and Blister Bitch but even if you get all that, I doubt it's enough to over come the shit bullpen and the shit defense.
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