2019 Cincinnati Reds pitching staff much more reliable, better than 2018 version
John Fay, Cincinnati EnquirerPublished 12:02 p.m. ET Jan. 23, 2019 | Updated 12:25 p.m. ET Jan. 23, 2019
The acquisition of Gray completed the rotation overhaul that was Job 1 of the offseason.
“Conceptually, we always wanted to add three starters if we could do so economically,” Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams said. “We just thought that would really improve our overall depth.”
It does that. Castillo is only one of the five starters that began last year in the rotation to have a chance to make this year’s.
I can confidently predict that the rotation – barring injury – will be Roark, Gray, Wood, Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani.
The order? That’s not so predictable. The three starters the Reds added all fall into the No. 3 starter category. I could see any of them starting Opening Day, and I could see any of them being in the fourth slot.
To add three starters and do so economically and not give up top prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell, the Reds did not go for a No. 1 starter, like Corey Kluber or Dallas Keuchel.
Instead, they added three guys who are similar in this way: They aren’t coming off great years, but they’ve had great years in the past.
Roark, Gray and Wood went a combined 29-31 with a 4.67 ERA. And they threw an average of 154 innings. Not exactly ace numbers.
But, again, all three have been good in the past. Bookmakers have the Reds at 77 1/2 wins. For the Reds to make the bookies look bad – no small feat – Roark, Gray and Wood are going to have to get back to what they were.
So let’s look at the rotation (I’ll go with alphabetical order):
—Castillo, 26: He has the stuff to be an ace. He was 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA overall last year. A bad start ruined his overall numbers. He had a 3.60 ERA after May 8 and was 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA in the second half. I could see him getting the Opening Day nod if he has a good spring.
—DeSclafani, 28: He’s coming off a rough year as far as record and ERA (7-8, 4.93). But his WHIP (1.287 vs. 1.216), strikeout rate (8.5 per 9 innings vs. 7.7) and walk rate (2.3 per 9 vs. 2.3) were virtually the same as what they were in 2016 when he went 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA. For him, the key is staying healthy.
—Gray, 29: He is 59-53 with a 3.66 ERA overall. But he struggled in Yankee Stadium so badly that the Yankees gave up on him. Why? “That’s the question, isn’t it?” Gray said. His groundball rate, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate weren’t much different in 2018 than when he was having his success in Oakland. The most significant difference when you study his fangraphs.com page? He threw only 35.1 percent fastballs in ’18. In 2015 when he was an All-Star, he threw 60.5 percent fastballs.
—Roark, 32: He went 9-15 with a 4.34 last year, but his WAR last year (3.4, according to baseball-reference.com) was the best of any of the five by far. (The six pitchers who combined for the most starts for the Reds last year had a combined WAR of 1.1. That explains a 95-loss season).
—Wood, 28: He’s only one year removed from a season in which he went 16-3 with 2.72 ERA and finished ninth in the National League Cy Young vote. His career numbers (52-40, 3.29 ERA) are the best of the bunch as well. He also gives the Reds a left-hander in the rotation. That was part of the goal when adding the three starters.
By adding the trio of veterans, the Reds increased the depth on the pitching staff. Mahle, Reed, Romano, Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan and Michael Lorenzen, all of whom made at least three starts last year, are likely out of the rotation plans if the aforementioned five stay healthy.
It should be noted that the Reds are likely to start the season without a homegrown pitcher in the rotation. Solving that problem remains the difference between sustained success for the franchise long-term. That’s another column.
But the patchwork the Reds did this offseason makes them a team to watch at worst and a contender at best. That’s a lot better than what they were at this point last year.
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