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Can someone please explain this to me? (regarding 3-pt shots)

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Mrstickball

Heisman
I was thinking about this today, and had a random question:


Why do basketball teams (I'm mainly looking at college for this equation) shoot far more 2pt shots than 3pt shots?

Looking at the data of the 09-10 college season, I find the following data for the 129 NCAA D-1AA teams:

32 of 129 teams shot >50% of FGs per game, which equates to an average of 1 point per shot attempted.
97 of 129 teams shot >40% of FGs per game, which equates to an average of 0.8 points per shot attemped

Comparatively,

72 of 129 teams shot >33% of 3pt shots per game, which equates to an average of 1 point per shot attempted
96 of 129 teams shot >26% of 3pt shots per game, which equates to an average of 0.8 points per shot attempted

Wouldn't it make more sense for a team to shoot 3pt shots more often than 2pt shots?
 
buckeyescott11 said:
2 pt shots are closer to the basket which should make them easier to make.
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Biggest problem I've seen with this is players always take 1 or 2 too many bounces towards the hoop instead of just taking the open 6 footer.

I hate when I see guards just drive all the way into a contested layup. Definitely not easier in those situations.

It's either 3 or contested 2 nowadays, which could lead to those stats.

edit- No problems with a strong take to the hoop. I like aggressiveness. I'm talking really contested, like the Nova guards driving into 3 bodies at the rim today when they had an open look in the lane.
 
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buckeyescott11;1677652; said:
2 pt shots are closer to the basket which should make them easier to make.
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But according to the stats, the majority of teams earned more points per attempt on 3 pointers than 2.

Again, if a team wanted to make roughly 1 point per attempt, they would need to make 50% of their FGs to have achieve that, or 33.4% of 3pt shots to make the same number. Having said that and looking at stats on ESPN, almost twice as many teams would up being above 33.4% of 3pt shots compared to the number of teams with 50% of FGs being made.

For example, Ohio State in the 09-10 season:

Ohio State made 49.1% of their 2pt shots - 899 shots made, and 1,830 attempts. That translates to 0.982 points per attempted FG
Ohio State made 38.5% of their 3pt shots - 247 shots made, and 658 attempts. That translates to 1.155 points per attempted 3pt shot

So, statistically speaking, Ohio State earns 17.3% more points per 3pt attempt vs. their field goal shooting. So why not take more 3pt shots?

Or is it that there are other stastistics that follow more frequent FG shooting?

- Less offensive rebounds on 3pt shots?
- Less free throws earned via fouls from 3pt shots?
- More turnovers?
 
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i expect that if more 3-point attempts were taken, the quality of the attempts would correspondingly decrease. therefore, the shooting percentage would also drop. the law of diminishing returns may apply here.

furthermore, there are far more 2-point attempts because fewer players are good enough at shooting long range shots.
 
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Another factor is FTs. Players get fouled more often when shooting 2-point shots, and get more points-per-possession on those attempts, which don't show up under 2-point attempts (except as made baskets on And-1s).

If a team is fouled 8 times in the act of shooting 2-pointers that don't go in, and shoots 70% from the line, that's 11.2 points on 8 possessions, which improves the 'real' points per possession number for 2-point attempts.

Coaches might not be math majors, but they'll periodically look at numbers like that.
 
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OSU_Buckguy;1677664; said:
i expect that if more 3-point attempts were taken, the quality of the attempts would correspondingly decrease. therefore, the shooting percentage would also drop. the law of diminishing returns may apply here.
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Exactly. The threat of the 2 point shot aids the percentage of success on the 3 point shot.
 
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Oneshot;1677700; said:
Redlands actually does subscribe to the '3 point' offense, so you're not alone in this theory, stickball.
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Loyola Marymount under Paul Westhead in the early 90s took it to the extreme. They were fun to watch, and knocked a three seed scUM out of the tourney by scoring a ridiculous 149 points (while allowing 115).

That game was fucking hilarious.
 
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Mrstickball;1677661; said:
Ohio State made 49.1% of their 2pt shots - 899 shots made, and 1,830 attempts. That translates to 0.982 points per attempted FG
Ohio State made 38.5% of their 3pt shots - 247 shots made, and 658 attempts. That translates to 1.155 points per attempted 3pt shot
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You have your stats wrong. Buckeyes actually made 55% of their twos (1.1 pps), and 39% of their threes (1.17 pps). Your "2-pt" shot stat was actually total shots, and it was outdated. They have hit 933 of 1899 total shots.

Effective field goal percentage for the season for the Buckeyes is 56.2 percent, good for 4th nationally overall; they trail only Univ. of Denver, Syracuse and Cornell. This is one great-shooting basketball team.
 
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Statistics prove that a made three pointer is worth one more point than a made two pointer nearly every time. The exception is when one is made by a scummer, in which case a puppy dies, and thusly the world is down a few points on a net basis.
 
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Buckeye Nut;1677836; said:
I believe our friends in Ann Arbor subscribe to this theory. It's been working magnificently if you hadn't noticed.
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They especially liked this one.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-YJ1ZinS8w]YouTube - Evan Turner - Game Winner against Michigan 3/12/10[/ame]
 
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