The X-men cometh?
This week's list, conjured up on a flight out to Missouri to see Tigers QB Brad Smith, is about the 10 biggest X-factors in the chase for the BCS title game. One caveat here: The 10 teams represented aren't necessarily my top 10 teams, but if things break right, especially in regard to their X-factor people, they will have a say in who's playing in the Rose Bowl. Also included are the odds that each will please their team's faithful.
1. Marcus Vick, Virginia Tech QB: One of my buddies out in L.A., Alfredo, is a very knowledgeable football fan, but he is convinced that Vick will be a bust and end up losing his job to the Hokies' backup. In fact, he's so sure Marcus will fizzle he's making this claim without even knowing who that backup is. I think my buddy is way off here, and I think Vick will produce every bit as much as Bryan Randall, the ACC's Offensive Player of the Year last season.
Vick has a better arm and is a more accurate passer who is also a much more dangerous running threat. The other big reason why he will thrive is because he has better weapons than Randall did last season. Sophomore Eddie Royal is a rising star, and Jeff King, the Chris Weinke look-alike, is one of the five best tight ends in college football. The one big stumbling block is, well, he's still Michael's brother, and I suspect expectations are unrealistic. Very good, to many, probably just won't be good enough. Even if the Hokies do win the ACC again.
Odds to please the faithful: 3-1
2. Brandent Englemon, Michigan SS: I'm not sure there's any defensive position that's been more scrutinized over the past nine months. The reason is, for as much talent as the Wolverines have (in layman's terms I think it's called a "crapload"), they just got destroyed by mobile quarterbacks (see: Troy Smith and Vince Young) and gave up almost 400 rushing yards to Michigan State. Five-foot-11, 199-pound Englemon doesn't have anywhere near the size of his predecessor, Ernest Shazor, or the guy he's battling for the job, Jamar Adams, but he does run better than Shazor. I suspect Michigan will do some things schemewise to put its people in better position to make plays. I do think with the zone Young was in that day, he would've embarrassed a lot of defenses.
Odds to please the faithful: 6-1
3. Tyrone Moss, Miami, RB: It's been two years since Miami had an elite tailback, and not so coincidentally, it's been two years since the 'Canes last played for a title. Moss, the all-time leading prep rusher in talent-mad Broward County, is a bruiser who has surprising burst, but he has battled weight problems since coming to UM. Larry Coker and the rest of the UM staff challenged him this offseason, and Moss responded by shedding 15 pounds. Everyone inside the program is excited about him again, especially strength coach Andreu Swasey, whose word probably counts more on such things like this than anyone else's. Still, Moss has a bunch to prove. Redshirt freshman Derron Thomas has the juice to break long runs and might overtake him, but in truth, he's a bigger mystery than Moss.
Odds to please the faithful: 5-2
4. Jordan Shipley, Texas WR: Yeah, Young is a dazzling runner, but if the Horns are going to play for a title, the speedy QB needs some help on the outside to take some of the pressure off. Shipley, the all-time leading schoolboy receiver in Texas history, is exactly the kind of glue-fingered, polished route runner this offense needs. Plus, we have to pull for anyone nicknamed "ESPN." He probably would have locked down a starting spot at some point last year if he hadn't hurt his knee. Now he's back, having regained his quickness and should provide a good complement to David Thomas, the Horns' talented H-back.
Odds to please the faithful: 2-1
5. Florida's tailbacks: Is it gonna be DeShawn Wynn, Skyler Thornton or Markus Manson? Maybe we'll know in a few weeks, or maybe it won't be any of 'em. Wynn might have squandered his shot already. Urban Meyer sure didn't mind calling them out a few days before fall camp when he told reporters: "I hate to put the whole season on the tailback position, but I'm putting the whole season on the tailback position." That's a mouthful considering how ridiculous the expectations have gotten on Meyer's first season at UF.
(I was on the Gator bandwagon for most of this offseason, but now I'm having second thoughts. The bandwagon's way past full with media types trying to make the trendy call. That's usually the kiss of death. Ever see the great movie "A Bronx Tale"? One of every three of my press box brethren could be The Mush.)
Odds to please the faithful: 8-1
6. Troy Smith, Ohio State QB: For an offense that hasn't had a legit weapon in the backfield since Mo Clarett, Smith's wheels are a godsend. He's still pretty erratic as a passer and has long had the rep of throwing a "heavy" ball. But I imagine that, coupled with the threat of Teddy Ginn and the skill of Santonio Holmes, Smith's potential still worries defenses a lot more than Justin Zwick's. Trouble is, after Smith's suspension late last season and another minor blip in the headlines, I think he has upped people's level of expectations for him.
Odds to please the faithful: 4-1
7. Gerald Riggs Jr., Tennessee RB: He's already a star. Question is, is he capable of being a superstar with the kind of talent that gets him invited to New York for the Heisman and lets him carry an offense on his back at crunch time? I'm thinking yeah, probably so, and this guy might be the most underrated star at a big-time program in the country. Still, I think he needs to be great for the Vols to win the SEC. (Great, in this case, being defined as 1,500 yards, 5.5-yards-per-carry great.)
Odds to please the faithful: 2-1
8. Iowa's O-line: Of course, when injuries knock you down to your fifth-string tailback, your ground game is going to suffer. But in reality, the vaunted Hawkeyes' front wasn't at the star level it had been the previous two seasons. You can't blame the 40 sacks on the tailbacks. Losing stars such as Eric Steinbach and Robert Gallery will do that, but if the Hawkeyes are going to be thought of as a top-10 program, they need to be in that reload mode. Junior Mike Jones has star talent, and no one is better at grooming a line than Kirk Ferentz.
Odds to please the faithful: 3-2
9. Jeff Bowden, Florida State offensive coordinator: Fair or not, he's been the most vilified coordinator in the country. And I'm going to say it wasn't all fitting. (Then again, is it ever?) I'm not sure Jimbo Fisher or Mark Richt or even Norm Chow could've kept FSU as a top-three program with the QBs Bowden has been saddled with. Sure, maybe he deserves some of the blame for that, but I think that's too easy. FSU has had a lot of bad luck with its QBs since Weinke left Tallahassee. (Joe Mauer? Adrian McPherson anyone?) So what can be expected of two untested rooks such as Xavier Lee and Drew Weatherford? Probably not a lot -- yet. FSU does have three talented TBs, at least. I think they'll work them a ton in the running game and also as receivers out of the backfield. One other thing to throw out there that I've noticed about FSU probably more than any other program (and I do believe Jeff Bowden is kind of a victim of this) is that their young receivers are reputed to be so gifted and so fast that they create this buzz among their fan base. So when they don't produce like a Randy Moss and Torry Holt, everyone blames Bowden.
Odds to please the faithful: 50-1
10. Sedrick Ellis, USC DT: OK, so he's only replacing Mike Patterson, aka the most dominant DT in the country the past two seasons, and the guy who was the second-biggest reason (behind Pete Carroll) why USC led the nation in run defense the past two seasons. Ellis is in the Baby Sapp mold. Although not quite as explosive as Patterson, he did wow the Trojans' coaches in the spring. He's a mature kid, but he was hurt by Manny Wright's defection to the NFL. Wright could've been the double-team guy. Now there are big question marks next to Ellis and those playing behind him since MLB Lofa Tatupu is playing for the Seahawks now. Then again, when your offense looks likely to score 60 points a game, you do have a sizable margin for error.
Odds to please the faithful: 4-1
Just Missed the Cut: Nate Harris, Louisville LB; Samson Taylor, Texas A&M RB; Rhett Bomar, Oklahoma QB; Desmond Bishop, California MLB; Derrick Williams, Penn State WR; Ray Edwards, Purdue DE; Kenneth Darby, 'Bama TB; Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson QB; and Victor Abiamiri, Notre Dame DE.
Here's a question. What do Ernest Shazor and everyone on BuckeyePlanet have in common?
