Brett Ludwiczak
Guest
Bold Predictions: Looking at a few 2023 college football win totals
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Not only do we touch on Ohio State’s set total, there are five other tasty win totals.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.
This college football season in Ohio is going to be a lot different than all the ones that have come before it. This is the first full season where sports betting is legal in the Buckeye State. We got a little taste of it at the beginning of 2023 when a few bowl games took place after the clock struck midnight on New Year’s Eve, but now we have a lot more bets available to us than we did in the short time before Georgia beat up on TCU to close out the season.
One type of bet that is on the board is the over/under win total for teams. The downside of these bets is once they are placed, we have to wait a while to get our winnings if they do cash. The upside is they can be profitable if you are tuned in to what a team is capable of doing, and then they go out and play as expected. Although we must always remember that there is no such thing as easy money. There’s a reason why all those big casinos were built out in Las Vegas.
Since during the season I pick games against the spread here at LGHL, I figured I would try my hand at some regular season win totals. I’m not going to go through every team’s over/under, but I will give some of the totals that caught my eye. I got these regular season win totals from FanDuel, so it’s possible that other sportsbooks might have slightly different totals or odds.
As a Buckeye fan, there’s no way I would take the under, just because I don’t want to sit and root for Ohio State to lose two regular season games, which would undoubtedly take Ryan Day’s team out of the College Football Playoff. What fun is the season as a fan if the whole season you’re rooting for failure? Starting next year it could be a little easier to do this since the playoff will expand, so two losses aren’t a death sentence like they are now.
For those that aren’t Ohio State fans, the under could be really tempting. The Buckeyes hit the road for tough games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Plus, even though the game is at Ohio Stadium, Penn State always pushes the Buckeyes to the limit. It wouldn’t be totally crazy for Ohio State to lose two of those four games. It all depends on how quickly Kyle McCord can find his footing as the new starting quarterback, and how the defense responds in the second year under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
If Ryan Day and Brian Hartline can collaborate and the Ohio State offense plays every game like the Georgia game, then the Buckeyes are going undefeated. If the Ohio State defense plays every game like the Michigan and Georgia games, then there could be a little more trouble in Columbus. My advice is if you are a fan, take the over, if you aren’t then take the under. The rest of the picks from me will be a little more definitive, I just had to include Ohio State’s total in here since this is a Buckeye site.
I’m really intrigued by this Wisconsin team. The Badgers could win the Big Ten West in Luke Fickell’s first season in Madison. Not only does running back Braelon Allen return, Fickell brought in SMU transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who has been one of the most prolific passers in FBS over the last couple seasons. Even with the style of play changing dramatically with the Badgers, I feel like they should be able to get to nine wins rather easily.
The first three games for Wisconsin are home contests against Buffalo and Georgia Southern, which sandwich a road trip to Washington State. The Badgers should be able to win all three of those games heading into Big Ten play. Home games against Rutgers, Northwestern, and Nebraska should all be victories, along with a road game at Indiana. Other road contests at Purdue, Illinois, and Minnesota are a little tougher to predict, but they are definitely winnable games for Wisconsin.
Honestly, I feel like 9-3 for the Badgers is about the worst record we’ll see from a team that is going to embrace the new style of play that Fickell will bring to Madison.
South Carolina’s start to the season could be a little tough to stomach, but there are more opportunities for victories as the year moves along. It’s hard to see road games at Georgia and Tennessee not ending in losses, especially with the Volunteers likely eager to get some revenge that the Gamecocks gave them last year.
After the Tennessee game, things will open up for Shane Beamer’s team. South Carolina has a home game against Florida, then road trips to Missouri and Texas A&M before closing the regular season out with four straight home games. While the finale against Clemson will be tough, it’s not quite as unwinnable as it has been in past years.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24818521/1453890947.jpg "TaxSlayer Gator Bowl - Notre Dame v South Carolina")
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images
So where do I see seven wins for South Carolina? Games against Furman, Jacksonville State, and Vanderbilt seem like they should be easy dubs. I definitely could see the Gamecocks winning home games against Mississippi State and Florida, along with the road game against Missouri. That leaves a neutral site game against North Carolina, road game at Texas A&M, and the home game against Clemson to close out the regular season. I really think South Carolina can find at least one win somewhere in there.
The Fighting Irish could be a bit of a sleeper this year now that they were able to bring in quarterback Sam Hartman from Wake Forest. Even though offensive coordinator Tommy Rees left for the same position at Alabama, it might not be as big of a loss this year for Notre Dame because they were able to bring in Hartman, who definitely knows what he is doing on the field.
With their schedule, there’s no reason Notre Dame should lose more than three games this year. If they do, Marcus Freeman might be a little more out of his element than people want to admit. Two of Notre Dame’s three toughest games come in South Bend, as the Fighting Irish will host Ohio State and USC. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Notre Dame were able to pull the upset in one of those games, or even in the road test at Clemson. If the Fighting Irish play up to their potential, this could cash by early November.
It feels like all Kyle Whittingham does at Utah is bang out seasons of at least nine wins. In 11 of his 19 seasons with the Utes, Whittingham’s teams have won at least nine games. Really though, we can say it is 11 out of 18 seasons, since one of the years was the COVID year, so that doesn’t really count. Utah is coming off back-to-back seasons of 10 wins, which have resulted in appearances in the Rose Bowl.
The Utes did lose all-everything tight end Dalton Kincaid to the NFL, but experienced quarterback Cam Rising is back for another year in Salt Lake City. Utah does have a favorable schedule, with their only really tough road games being against USC and Washington. The Utes open the season at home against Florida before heading to Baylor, followed by a cupcake home game against Weber State before Pac-12 play begins. Even though they have a little tougher schedule than Notre Dame, I still think the Utes have the toughness and experience to win at least nine games this season.
There is a lot of chatter about Florida State being back. Even though they have a really good quarterback in Jordan Travis, I’m just not sold yet on Mike Norvell and the Seminoles. Florida State got lucky in the season opener against LSU last year, and I don’t think they will be able to beat the Tigers two years in a row. As long as the Seminoles can’t beat LSU, then we just need to see them lose a couple more games.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24818522/1443853687.jpg "Louisiana v Florida State")
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images
Obviously one potential loss that I could see is a road game at Clemson to open up ACC play. After that there isn’t a ton that jumps out on Florida State’s schedule, but in-state contests against Miami and Florida are games I could see the Seminoles dropping. Along with those, there are a few other ACC games where I could see an underdog pushing Florida State to the limit. While the Seminoles desperately want to be back in the CFP race, it feels like they aren’t quite at that tier just yet. 9-3 feels right for them this year.
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Not only do we touch on Ohio State’s set total, there are five other tasty win totals.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.
This college football season in Ohio is going to be a lot different than all the ones that have come before it. This is the first full season where sports betting is legal in the Buckeye State. We got a little taste of it at the beginning of 2023 when a few bowl games took place after the clock struck midnight on New Year’s Eve, but now we have a lot more bets available to us than we did in the short time before Georgia beat up on TCU to close out the season.
One type of bet that is on the board is the over/under win total for teams. The downside of these bets is once they are placed, we have to wait a while to get our winnings if they do cash. The upside is they can be profitable if you are tuned in to what a team is capable of doing, and then they go out and play as expected. Although we must always remember that there is no such thing as easy money. There’s a reason why all those big casinos were built out in Las Vegas.
Since during the season I pick games against the spread here at LGHL, I figured I would try my hand at some regular season win totals. I’m not going to go through every team’s over/under, but I will give some of the totals that caught my eye. I got these regular season win totals from FanDuel, so it’s possible that other sportsbooks might have slightly different totals or odds.
Ohio State
Over 10.5 regular season wins (-128)/Under 10.5 regular season wins (+104)
As a Buckeye fan, there’s no way I would take the under, just because I don’t want to sit and root for Ohio State to lose two regular season games, which would undoubtedly take Ryan Day’s team out of the College Football Playoff. What fun is the season as a fan if the whole season you’re rooting for failure? Starting next year it could be a little easier to do this since the playoff will expand, so two losses aren’t a death sentence like they are now.
For those that aren’t Ohio State fans, the under could be really tempting. The Buckeyes hit the road for tough games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Plus, even though the game is at Ohio Stadium, Penn State always pushes the Buckeyes to the limit. It wouldn’t be totally crazy for Ohio State to lose two of those four games. It all depends on how quickly Kyle McCord can find his footing as the new starting quarterback, and how the defense responds in the second year under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
If Ryan Day and Brian Hartline can collaborate and the Ohio State offense plays every game like the Georgia game, then the Buckeyes are going undefeated. If the Ohio State defense plays every game like the Michigan and Georgia games, then there could be a little more trouble in Columbus. My advice is if you are a fan, take the over, if you aren’t then take the under. The rest of the picks from me will be a little more definitive, I just had to include Ohio State’s total in here since this is a Buckeye site.
Wisconsin
Over 8.5 regular season wins (-138)
I’m really intrigued by this Wisconsin team. The Badgers could win the Big Ten West in Luke Fickell’s first season in Madison. Not only does running back Braelon Allen return, Fickell brought in SMU transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who has been one of the most prolific passers in FBS over the last couple seasons. Even with the style of play changing dramatically with the Badgers, I feel like they should be able to get to nine wins rather easily.
The first three games for Wisconsin are home contests against Buffalo and Georgia Southern, which sandwich a road trip to Washington State. The Badgers should be able to win all three of those games heading into Big Ten play. Home games against Rutgers, Northwestern, and Nebraska should all be victories, along with a road game at Indiana. Other road contests at Purdue, Illinois, and Minnesota are a little tougher to predict, but they are definitely winnable games for Wisconsin.
Honestly, I feel like 9-3 for the Badgers is about the worst record we’ll see from a team that is going to embrace the new style of play that Fickell will bring to Madison.
South Carolina
Over 6.5 regular season wins (+144)
South Carolina’s start to the season could be a little tough to stomach, but there are more opportunities for victories as the year moves along. It’s hard to see road games at Georgia and Tennessee not ending in losses, especially with the Volunteers likely eager to get some revenge that the Gamecocks gave them last year.
After the Tennessee game, things will open up for Shane Beamer’s team. South Carolina has a home game against Florida, then road trips to Missouri and Texas A&M before closing the regular season out with four straight home games. While the finale against Clemson will be tough, it’s not quite as unwinnable as it has been in past years.
So where do I see seven wins for South Carolina? Games against Furman, Jacksonville State, and Vanderbilt seem like they should be easy dubs. I definitely could see the Gamecocks winning home games against Mississippi State and Florida, along with the road game against Missouri. That leaves a neutral site game against North Carolina, road game at Texas A&M, and the home game against Clemson to close out the regular season. I really think South Carolina can find at least one win somewhere in there.
Notre Dame
Over 8.5 regular season wins (-110)
The Fighting Irish could be a bit of a sleeper this year now that they were able to bring in quarterback Sam Hartman from Wake Forest. Even though offensive coordinator Tommy Rees left for the same position at Alabama, it might not be as big of a loss this year for Notre Dame because they were able to bring in Hartman, who definitely knows what he is doing on the field.
With their schedule, there’s no reason Notre Dame should lose more than three games this year. If they do, Marcus Freeman might be a little more out of his element than people want to admit. Two of Notre Dame’s three toughest games come in South Bend, as the Fighting Irish will host Ohio State and USC. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Notre Dame were able to pull the upset in one of those games, or even in the road test at Clemson. If the Fighting Irish play up to their potential, this could cash by early November.
Utah
Over 8.5 regular season wins (+104)
It feels like all Kyle Whittingham does at Utah is bang out seasons of at least nine wins. In 11 of his 19 seasons with the Utes, Whittingham’s teams have won at least nine games. Really though, we can say it is 11 out of 18 seasons, since one of the years was the COVID year, so that doesn’t really count. Utah is coming off back-to-back seasons of 10 wins, which have resulted in appearances in the Rose Bowl.
The Utes did lose all-everything tight end Dalton Kincaid to the NFL, but experienced quarterback Cam Rising is back for another year in Salt Lake City. Utah does have a favorable schedule, with their only really tough road games being against USC and Washington. The Utes open the season at home against Florida before heading to Baylor, followed by a cupcake home game against Weber State before Pac-12 play begins. Even though they have a little tougher schedule than Notre Dame, I still think the Utes have the toughness and experience to win at least nine games this season.
Florida State
Under 9.5 regular season wins (-134)
There is a lot of chatter about Florida State being back. Even though they have a really good quarterback in Jordan Travis, I’m just not sold yet on Mike Norvell and the Seminoles. Florida State got lucky in the season opener against LSU last year, and I don’t think they will be able to beat the Tigers two years in a row. As long as the Seminoles can’t beat LSU, then we just need to see them lose a couple more games.
Obviously one potential loss that I could see is a road game at Clemson to open up ACC play. After that there isn’t a ton that jumps out on Florida State’s schedule, but in-state contests against Miami and Florida are games I could see the Seminoles dropping. Along with those, there are a few other ACC games where I could see an underdog pushing Florida State to the limit. While the Seminoles desperately want to be back in the CFP race, it feels like they aren’t quite at that tier just yet. 9-3 feels right for them this year.
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