BCS Bowl Participants for the 2009 postseason

[BB73]

This thread is for the discussion of which teams will play in the 5 BCS bowls following the 2009 season.

This post will explain rules for the selection process. It will be updated in case the rules change (they have been altered slightly from last year in order to resolve some conflicts within the rules).

These teams receive automatic bids:

- The #1 and #2 teams in the final BCS standings
- The 6 BCS Conference Champions
- If it's in the BCS top-12 (or if it's in the BCS top-16 and is ranked above one of the 6 BCS Conference Champions), the highest ranked team among the 5 non-BCS conferences gets an automatic bid (if two are in the top-12/16, only the higher one gets the automatic bid)
- If it's in the BCS top-8, Notre Dame gets an automatic bid
- If all 10 spots aren't already taken (highly unlikely), the BCS #3 team gets a bid (if it doesn't already have one) if it's from a BCS Conference and that conference doesn't already have 2 teams selected. If the #3 team isn't given an automatic by this criterion, then the #4 team will get an automatic bid if it is from a BCS Conference that doesn't already have two teams selected.

Thus, there will be between 6 and 10 automatic selections. This number varies because Notre Dame may or may not receive an automatic bid, there may or may not be a non-BCS team getting an automatic bid, and the #1 through #4 BCS teams at the end of the regular season may or may not be champions from the 6 BCS Conferences.

If there are still spots left (and probably at least 2 spots will be), then the bowls select the other teams from the 'at-large' pool.

The at-large pool consists of teams that have:
- won at least 9 games and are in the BCS top-14 (if there aren't enough teams to fill the spots they then expand the at-large pool to the top-18).

Bowl Selection Sequence:

BCS Title Game - gets BCS #1 vs. BCS #2

BCS Conference Champs not in the Title game then get assigned:

Rose: Pac Ten Champ vs. Big Ten Champ
Orange: ACC Champ
Fiesta: Big 12 Champ
Sugar: SEC Champ

If any of the 5 Conferences listed above have their champion in the BCS Title Game, the bowl that 'lost' them gets to pick a replacement (the Bowl that had #1 picks first if both #1 and #2 are 'lost' by these bowls). In picking replacements, the bowl can pick any team in the automatic or in the at-large pools if they aren't already tied to a bowl. If both #1 and #2 are involved in this, the bowl picking a replacement for #1 can't pick a team from the same conference as #2 unless the bowl that 'lost' #2 consents.

The final 3 selections are then made (this year in this order):

Orange
Fiesta
Sugar

BCS.Eligibility.Rules

Note - Any posts in this thread that contain incorrect information about the BCS selection process may be edited/deleted in order to avoid confusion.

 

[Mike80]

BCS Title Game - Florida BCS #1 vs. Oklahoma BCS #2

BCS Conference Champs not in the Title game then get assigned:

Rose: USC vs. Ohio State
Orange: Florida State (ACC champ) vs. Pittsburgh (Big East champion)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State (Big 12 2nd selection) vs. Ntre Ame (At Large)
Sugar: LSU (SEC 2nd selection) vs. Penn State (Big Ten 2nd selection)

Predictions:

Oklahoma 27 - Florida 20

Oklahoma State 66 - Ntre Ame 21

Florida State 42 - Pitt 30

Ohio State 24 - USC 17

LSU 23 - Penn State 12

 

[zwem]

BCS Championship- Florida (BCS #1) vs. Texas (BCS #2) Texas wins

Rose Bowl- USC (PAC 10 champ) vs. Ohio St. (Big Ten champ) USC wins

Orange- GaTech (ACC champ) vs. Pitt (Big East champ) GaTech wins

Fiesta- Oklahoma (Big 12 2nd) vs. ND (At Large) ND wins

Sugar- LSU (SEC 2nd) vs. Boise St. (At Large) LSU wins

 

[TGfan06]

BCS Championship game: Florida (BCS #1) vs. Texas (BCS #2) Texas wins

Rose Bowl: Cal (PAC 10) vs. Ohio State (Big Ten) Ohio State wins

Orange Bowl: Va Tech (ACC) vs. ND (at-large) Va Tech wins

Fiesta: Oklahoma State (Big 12) vs. Penn State (at large) OK State wins

Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. WVU (Big East) Bama Wins

 

[BB73]

I posted this in another thread, but it belongs here.

For at-large spots, any team in the BCS top-14 with at least 9 wins is eligible, but only two teams from 1 conference can be chosen. So LSU has no chance to be selected because Florida and Bama will both be in BCS bowls.

There are the 6 spots for conference winners, 1 guaranteed spot for the highest non-AQ team (outside the 6 BCS conf, as long as they're in the top-12, which means TCU gets it this year), and 3 more at-large spots. The Bama-Fla loser will get 1 at-large spot.

The other two will come from:
Iowa or Penn State (only 1 can be selected, the other should get LSU in CapitalOne)
Boise State
Texas, if they lose to Nebraska
Cincy, if they lose to Pitt
(the Ga Tech/Clemson loser has no chance)
(the Oregon/Oregon State loser has no chance)

It's generally accepted that Iowa will get 1 of the spots, since they travel very well, they're higher that Penn State in the BCS, and they beat them. But the higher ranking is no guarantee of Iowa being selected, it just makes it more likely, since the bowl would get a fair share of grief if they select Penn State. There was some flack when tOSU was selected for the Fiesta over Boise State last year.

This year, Boise State is in line to get the last spot, even if Cincy loses, as long as Texas doesn't lose to Nebraska.

Selection sequence (assuming Texas beats Nebraska):
1, 2 - BCS Title Game gets #1 and #2
3, 4 - Rose Bowl gets tOSU and Oregon/Oreg St winner
5.......Orange Bowl gets Clemson/Ga Tech winner
6.......Sugar Bowl gets to replace #1 pick (they'll take Florida-Bama loser)
7.......Fiesta gets to repace #2 pick, assuming that's Texas (they would presumably take Iowa, TCU, or Penn State)
8.......Orange gets next pick (Iowa, TCU, or Penn State)
9.......Fiesta gets next pick (Boise St, or Cincy-Pitt winner)
10.....Sugar gets last pick (Boise St or Cincy-Pitt winner)

Note that the 9th and 10th pick can't pick just any at-large eligible team if the number of remaining spots equals the number of unpicked Automatic Qualifying teams not already selected (e.g. TCU and the Cincy-Pitt winner). Also, once Iowa or Penn State is selected, the other one is eliminated due to the 2-per-conference limit.

And just to be prepared:

Selection sequence (if Texas loses to Nebraska):
1, 2 - BCS Title Game gets #1 and #2 (SEC champ vs TCU-or-Cincy)
3, 4 - Rose Bowl gets tOSU and Oregon/Oreg St winner
5.......Orange Bowl gets Clemson/Ga Tech winner
6.......Fiesta gets Nebraska
7.......Sugar Bowl gets to replace #1 pick (they'll take Florida-Bama loser)
8.......Orange gets next pick (Texas, Iowa, TCU, Cincy, or Penn State)
9.......Fiesta gets next pick (Iowa, TCU, Boise St, or Cincy-Pitt winner)
10.....Sugar gets last pick (Iowa, Cincy-Pitt winner, or Boise St)

In this scenario, the Orange would probably grab Texas, the Fiesta would take Iowa, and the Sugar would be forced to take the Cincy-Pitt winner, leaving Boise State high and dry.

 

[Gatorubet]

 

[NateG]

This would have been a great sign to have at the scUM game this year.... a retro looking Scarlet wearing woman then a scUM background.

 

[JXC]

shame on those 3 predictions...all having Notre Dame in them.

 

[JXC]

If Texas loses to Nebraska, I'd think that Boise would get the nod over Iowa honestly. But if not, like you say, then why not just screw them over anyway? If you'd choose Iowa over Boise State, then it's all just about money...

So then beware of USC. They are 18th in the BCS right now. OrSt and Pitt losses, along with another win by USC, and they may squeek into that 14th spot (unlikely but possible).

But, being more realistic...lets keep with the it's all about money theme. You make no reference to Virginia Tech, yet you mention Penn State. In my opinion Penn State has zero shot, but Virgina Tech has one. Again, not likely, but they could take Virgina Tech if they wanted. I do agree that the only mid-major that has a shot at an at-large is Boise State.

But if it is all about money...then why not screw Boise State, and choose Virginia Tech and Iowa? If I were the BCS, that's who I would choose as the two at larges. It would keep all the match-ups the same...it would just make the Fiesta Bowl Virgina Tech v. TCU instead of Boise State v. TCU. That would be a better matchup for TV and for ticket sales. Makes sense to me. So why not?

 

[t_BuckeyeScott]

If Texas loses to Nebraska, I'd think that Boise would get the nod over Iowa honestly. But if not, like you say, then why not just screw them over anyway? If you'd choose Iowa over Boise State, then it's all just about money...

So then beware of USC. They are 18th in the BCS right now. OrSt and Pitt losses, along with another win by USC, and they may squeek into that 14th spot (unlikely but possible).

But, being more realistic...lets keep with the it's all about money theme. You make no reference to Virginia Tech, yet you mention Penn State. In my opinion Penn State has zero shot, but Virgina Tech has one. Again, not likely, but they could take Virgina Tech if they wanted. I do agree that the only mid-major that has a shot at an at-large is Boise State.

But if it is all about money...then why not screw Boise State, and choose Virginia Tech and Iowa? If I were the BCS, that's who I would choose as the two at larges. It would keep all the match-ups the same...it would just make the Fiesta Bowl Virgina Tech v. TCU instead of Boise State v. TCU. That would be a better matchup for TV and for ticket sales. Makes sense to me. So why not?

It is about the money. Watch the ACC championship game. Notice the empty seats. It's like that every year. Even when the Hokies are in it. ACC teams do not bring in money while it seems like Boise State fans traveled nicely to the Fiesta a few years ago.

 

[NateG]

If Texas loses to Nebraska, I'd think that Boise would get the nod over Iowa honestly. But if not, like you say, then why not just screw them over anyway? If you'd choose Iowa over Boise State, then it's all just about money...

So then beware of USC. They are 18th in the BCS right now. OrSt and Pitt losses, along with another win by USC, and they may squeek into that 14th spot (unlikely but possible).

But, being more realistic...lets keep with the it's all about money theme. You make no reference to Virginia Tech, yet you mention Penn State. In my opinion Penn State has zero shot, but Virgina Tech has one. Again, not likely, but they could take Virgina Tech if they wanted. I do agree that the only mid-major that has a shot at an at-large is Boise State.

But if it is all about money...then why not screw Boise State, and choose Virginia Tech and Iowa? If I were the BCS, that's who I would choose as the two at larges. It would keep all the match-ups the same...it would just make the Fiesta Bowl Virgina Tech v. TCU instead of Boise State v. TCU. That would be a better matchup for TV and for ticket sales. Makes sense to me. So why not?

VT has lost 3 games... State Penn lost to 2 top 10 BCS teams and that's it. That's why Iowa and State Penn are involved (2 losses).

If Tex/Cincy win...

Locks:
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Ohio State
Oreg/Oreg St.
Clem/GT
Cincy
TCU

Possibles (2)(in order of chances):
Boise
Iowa
State Penn
VT
BYU

What 2 do you take?

Probably Boise and Iowa

If Texas loses

Locks:
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Nebraska
Ohio State
Oreg/Oreg St
TCU
Cincy
Clem/GT

Than pick one from above.

If Tex/Cincy lose all 10 are accounted for with one vote to be made.

Florida
Alabama
Texas
Nebraska
Ohio State
Oreg/Oreg St.
Pitt
TCU
Clem/GT

Then Cincy/Boise/Iowa/State Penn fight for the final spot

VT isn't involved in any situation realistically. You go team by team and their real only chance is for chalk to occur. Then they need picked over Iowa or Boise. At which point Boise/Iowa beat a top 10 BCS team and VT didn't. And Bama-VT already was played.

So IMO it looks like this right now.
NCG-Florida/Texas
Rose- OSU/Oreg
Sugar-Bama/Boise St.
Orange-Clem-GT/TCU-Iowa
Fiesta-Cincy/Iowa-TCU

Texas loss:
NCG-Florida/TCU
Rose-OSU/Oreg
Sugar-Bama/Boise-Iowa
Fiesta-Neb/Cincy
Orange-Clem-GT/Tex

Texas/Cincy loss:
NCG-Fla/TCU
Rose-OSU/Oreg
Sugar-Bama/Boise-Iowa-Cincy
Fiesta-Neb/Pitt
Orange-Clem-GT/Tex

 

[cincibuck]

Oregon State and Clemson could really screw up the bowl assignments. What do you do with Oregon and Ga Tech if they lose this week? As for ACC travel, you need to remember that it is basketball season.

 

[Redhawk]

Oregon State and Clemson could really screw up the bowl assignments. What do you do with Oregon and Ga Tech if they lose this week? As for ACC travel, you need to remember that it is basketball season.

Are you referring to the BCS? Oregon and GT would both have 3 losses if they were to lose this week. Neither would make any cut.

 

[cincibuck]

Are you referring to the BCS? Oregon and GT would both have 3 losses if they were to lose this week. Neither would make any cut.

My point exactly -- Clemson's loss to SC this weekend makes the potential of their winning a BCS assignment all the more ludicrous.

 

[scarletandgray1]

My point exactly -- Clemson's loss to SC this weekend makes the potential of their winning a BCS assignment all the more ludicrous.

Exactly my thinking... there could be a 9-4, low BCS ranked team in a BCS bowl. What a great thing this BCS thing is....