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B1G Thoughts: It’s Ryan Day vs. Sherrone Moore in ‘The Game’
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It’s Rivalry Week, can Ohio State and Ryan Day reclaim the Big Ten throne or will Michigan make it three straight without Harbaugh on the sideline?
Every week after the Big Ten slate of games, I will bring you some B1G thoughts on everything that happened! This will include analysis, stats, key players, moments, and maybe a joke. With the Big Ten expanding from 14 teams to 18 teams in 2024 this article will also include the newest members, Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington. Check out the I-80 Football Show for more in-depth analysis and to preview the next week of B1G games.
Ryan Day is either 1-0 or 1-2 against Michigan and Jim Harbaugh depending on who you ask and how much you weigh the sign-stealing scandal. If you believe the sign stealing scandal had a major impact on “The Game” then it’s fair to say that the scandal caused Day to almost become a pariah to his fan base with many Ohio State fans calling for his job. It also cost the Buckeyes a chance at a national championship in 2021 and it cost C.J. Stroud at least one Heisman trophy. If you’re an Ohio State fan this scandal has changed the fortunes of this program in a major way. That could all be hyperbole but tell your average Ohio State fan that, I dare you.
With that in mind, Ryan Day needs this win more than any coach has ever needed a win in the Game. This win not only rights the ship and puts the Buckeyes back on top of the Big Ten but it allows Day to compete for another national championship with Marvin Harrison Jr. on the roster. Day needs to shut the door on Michigan and let the narrative machine hit overdrive. If the Buckeyes win this game, and god forbid they win big, the narrative that Michigan only won because they cheated could feed the hungry. No one knows the full extent of the scandal, most people don’t care. For whatever reason, Harbaugh has had Day’s number the past two seasons and it’s time for Day to right the wrong or risk reaching a place with the fanbase he can never come back from.
For the first time in close to two decades, Michigan may have a better quarterback entering ‘The Game’ than Ohio State. To be clear, I do not think J.J. McCarthy is a better quarterback than Kyle McCord but I am probably in the minority of that opinion. Regardless of which side you land on, it is a fair question for the first time in a long time. Both teams enter amazing defenses and good running backs but this game will be won or lost by the quarterback.
McCord is a full step down from C.J. Stroud and Justin Fields but he has enough juice and mettle to win this game. He has faced tough tests and led the Buckeyes on a game-winning drive to save their season versus Notre Dame. He also continues to make boneheaded plays and struggles massively in the first half.
McCarthy is in my opinion an average quarterback at best but he has improved this season. Despite the improvement, he has severely regressed in the last two games. Against Penn State and Maryland, he has gone 19-31 for 201 yards and one interception. That is not good enough to win “The Game.”
McCord and McCarthy have to play the best game of their season to put their team in the best position to win. Both quarterbacks have warts, whoever makes the least mistakes and capitalizes on what the opposing defense gives them will get a chance to leave the field with bragging rights.
This week we may finally get an answer to a question that is almost impossible to answer. How important is a head coach on game day, specifically when the head coach doesn’t call plays? Gamedays in most cases are where coordinators and position coaches make their money. They call plays, handle substitutions, and relay information to their players. Head coaches who do not call plays largely make in-game decisions such as timeouts, challenges, and key decisions like when to punt, kick a field goal, or go for it on fourth down.
Those are important decisions but how much do they affect a game? It’s hard to quantify but we will get a chance to find out when Michigan plays Ohio State without Jim Harbaugh on the sideline. Harbaugh will have to watch the game from home due to being suspended, again, this time because of sign stealing. The head coaching duties fall on offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore who will be the man in charge for the fourth time this season. So far, Moore is 3-0 as a head coach but the last two games have been Michigan’s worst performances of the season.
Is that because Harbaugh isn’t on the sideline? Is that because they finally played an opponent with a pulse? Not sure but Moore has his toughest test yet having to lead his program against Ryan Day and Ohio State.
Let’s be clear, there is a very slim chance Marvin Harrison Jr. wins the Heisman. He is clearly the best player in college football but the Heisman has turned into a quarterback award. Anyone who watches the game understands that Harrison is the engine that pushes Ohio State offense but he won’t have the requisite stats to win the award. In 11 games he has 1,093 yards and 13 touchdowns on 62 catches.
A great season, but not Heisman-worthy in most years. Harrison Jr. should absolutely be in New York at the end of the season but to win the Heisman he needs to have a Heisman moment in “The Game.” If he goes for over 150 receiving yards and two or more touchdowns and Ohio State wins he will boost his case especially if one of Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. has a bad game and loses to their rivals. Ohio State needs a big game from Marv to reclaim the Big Ten throne but a big game could serve to bolster Marv’s Heisman chances as well.
It’s time for a prediction. I believe that Ohio State is the better team. The best way I can say it is that Michigan reminds me of Ohio State in 2021. They have holes in the roster and bad moments that are being glossed over because of their recent success. Fairly or unfairly Michigan has earned the benefit of the doubt and no one they’ve played has been able to capitalize on their weaknesses.
Just like Michigan was the team that could capitalize on Ohio State’s weaknesses in 2021, the Buckeyes are the team. Michigan’s offensive line is not great, it may still be better than Ohio State but it is not in contention for the Joe Moore Award like it has been in the years it won. Their running game hasn’t been as effective and it seems as though Sherrone Moore does not trust McCarthy to win them a game in the air. Harbaugh might but he is not on the sideline making those decisions.
Michigan has the best defense in the country, ranking No. One in-stop rate for the entire season. Kyle McCord will need to take a step up if the Buckeyes want to win the game but they have the best player in the country on their team in Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State has the second-best defense in the country according to to stop rate and they have one of the better run-stopping defenses in the country. Ohio State has stepped back on offense but their defense has taken a massive jump forward. I believe Ohio State has arguably the three best players in the game with Marvin Harrison Jr., JT Tuimoloua, and Sonny Styles. That hasn’t stopped them from losing the past two years though.
Ultimately, this game will be won in the trenches. If Ohio State wins this game it means their offensive line has improved enough to withstand Michigan’s incredible interior defensive line. Michigan wins this game by bullying Ohio State up front and making McCord uncomfortable. Ohio State is better in every area on defense from last year and their offense is starting to click. Ohio State will win this game and win the Big Ten.
Ohio State- 30 Michigan- 20
Nebraska has had a very up-and-down season in Matt Rhule’s first year as head coach. At times they’ve looked like a much-improved team who could contend for the West division title. Then they turn around and look like a team that can’t get the Scott Frost stink out of the program. Despite all of this, Nebraska goes into the last week with a chance to do what Frost could never do and that’s make a bowl game.
The problem, they have to get through Iowa to do it. It would not be the worst thing for Rhule not to make a bowl game in year one, the roster is in a tough place and he’s shown enough progress to prove he’s better than Frost ever was. Despite that, it would be very beneficial to Rhule, his program, and the long-suffering Nebraska fans for them to make a bowl game. Iowa, despite winning the West again, is not as good as they have been the previous few years. Nebraska can pull the upset in this game, it won’t be easy but they have a defense that can stop Iowa’s putrid offense.
They just need to not make mistakes on offense and special teams that led to Iowa points. Nebraska can survive one more season without bowl eligibility but Rhule should go and win this game to end this season on a high note.
The Iowa Hawkeyes have once again won the Big Ten West with one of the worst offenses in the country. I’m sure Kirk Ferentz is out here somewhere smiling smugly and bemoaning the audacity of interim Athletic Director Beth Goetz’s decision to fire his son and offensive coordinator. This is a terrible outcome because everyone besides Kirk knows he needs to change but if they keep reaching his goals then he will never change.
The new Big Ten can’t get here fast enough some Ferentz can pay for his unwillingness to adjust to the times. Congrats to the players though, they faced a lot of coaching-led adversity but found a way to win games.
Pat Fitzgerald lost his fastball. No one wants to admit it, and he would still be the coach here without being caught for hazing but he was not a good coach the last four years. David Braun is all the proof you needed, this is the same team everyone predicted to win one or two games under Pat. After taking over the interim title in the summer, Braun has brought life into this team, and going into the last game of the season they have a chance to win seven games.
For reference in Fitzgerald’s last three non-pandemic seasons, he won seven games total going 3-9 twice and 1-11 last season. Braun has rightly been awarded for his efforts with the interim tag being removed. I have no idea how this will work out in the future, the conference is getting much harder for teams like Northwestern but Braun is a good step in the right direction for this once lifeless program.
I do not think Caleb Williams is a generational NFL prospect. He is, one of the most talented college quarterbacks we’ve ever seen, and his talent was wasted by Riley who is considered one of the brightest offensive coaches in the sport. USC was good last season, they should have won the PAC 12 and made the playoffs but their defense was horrid, and couldn’t stop giving up 40-plus points in big games.
Despite this, Riley made no changes to his defensive staff and decided to double down for this season. He’ll regret that decision for a lifetime. There is a lot of conversation about USC’s defense and he finally fired Alex Grinch, but his offense was also broken this year relying too much on magical moments from Williams instead of succeeding in structure. USC was a bad team in all three phases of the game.
Williams is the most talented quarterback in a long run of talented quarterbacks for Riley and there is nothing to show for it. This is the most important offseason of Riley’s career, especially considering that they have one of the toughest schedules next year in their first season in the Big Ten.
Riley needs to find a new defensive coordinator, and a new quarterback, and rebuild his offensive and defensive lines. This team will not survive a Big Ten schedule as it’s currently constructed. Riley should also consider giving up playcalling. I have no faith Riley will learn the lessons this season is trying to teach him but I’ll be paying attention.
As you are all aware, Oregon and Washington are entering the Big Ten next season and leaving their in-state rivals in conference purgatory. This is added fuel to the fire of two already heated rivalries and I can’t wait to watch these games. Washington at 11-0 with a win over Oregon already controls their destiny, if they win out they make the playoffs. Oregon may not fully control their destiny but it’ll be hard to imagine the playoff committee leaving out a one-loss Oregon if they are the PAC 12 champs and avenged their only loss to Washington in the conference championship game.
Enter Oregon State and Washington State. Washington and Washington State have signed a five-year contract to continue the Apple Cup but this could be the last iteration of the Civil War for a long time. The “little brothers” of these rivalries have a chance to ruin the seasons of their in-state counterparts while simultaneously getting a lot of anger out of their system for being left for dead. It’s probably fair to assume that both Oregon and Washington win but anything can happen on rivalry weekend, especially with the added stakes. Let’s get weird! We deserve at least one upset.
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Continue reading...
JordanW330 via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
It’s Rivalry Week, can Ohio State and Ryan Day reclaim the Big Ten throne or will Michigan make it three straight without Harbaugh on the sideline?
Every week after the Big Ten slate of games, I will bring you some B1G thoughts on everything that happened! This will include analysis, stats, key players, moments, and maybe a joke. With the Big Ten expanding from 14 teams to 18 teams in 2024 this article will also include the newest members, Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington. Check out the I-80 Football Show for more in-depth analysis and to preview the next week of B1G games.
Ryan Day, It’s up to you to right this wrong
Ryan Day is either 1-0 or 1-2 against Michigan and Jim Harbaugh depending on who you ask and how much you weigh the sign-stealing scandal. If you believe the sign stealing scandal had a major impact on “The Game” then it’s fair to say that the scandal caused Day to almost become a pariah to his fan base with many Ohio State fans calling for his job. It also cost the Buckeyes a chance at a national championship in 2021 and it cost C.J. Stroud at least one Heisman trophy. If you’re an Ohio State fan this scandal has changed the fortunes of this program in a major way. That could all be hyperbole but tell your average Ohio State fan that, I dare you.
With that in mind, Ryan Day needs this win more than any coach has ever needed a win in the Game. This win not only rights the ship and puts the Buckeyes back on top of the Big Ten but it allows Day to compete for another national championship with Marvin Harrison Jr. on the roster. Day needs to shut the door on Michigan and let the narrative machine hit overdrive. If the Buckeyes win this game, and god forbid they win big, the narrative that Michigan only won because they cheated could feed the hungry. No one knows the full extent of the scandal, most people don’t care. For whatever reason, Harbaugh has had Day’s number the past two seasons and it’s time for Day to right the wrong or risk reaching a place with the fanbase he can never come back from.
Kyle McCord vs. J.J. McCarthy
For the first time in close to two decades, Michigan may have a better quarterback entering ‘The Game’ than Ohio State. To be clear, I do not think J.J. McCarthy is a better quarterback than Kyle McCord but I am probably in the minority of that opinion. Regardless of which side you land on, it is a fair question for the first time in a long time. Both teams enter amazing defenses and good running backs but this game will be won or lost by the quarterback.
McCord is a full step down from C.J. Stroud and Justin Fields but he has enough juice and mettle to win this game. He has faced tough tests and led the Buckeyes on a game-winning drive to save their season versus Notre Dame. He also continues to make boneheaded plays and struggles massively in the first half.
McCarthy is in my opinion an average quarterback at best but he has improved this season. Despite the improvement, he has severely regressed in the last two games. Against Penn State and Maryland, he has gone 19-31 for 201 yards and one interception. That is not good enough to win “The Game.”
McCord and McCarthy have to play the best game of their season to put their team in the best position to win. Both quarterbacks have warts, whoever makes the least mistakes and capitalizes on what the opposing defense gives them will get a chance to leave the field with bragging rights.
How important is a head coach on game day?
This week we may finally get an answer to a question that is almost impossible to answer. How important is a head coach on game day, specifically when the head coach doesn’t call plays? Gamedays in most cases are where coordinators and position coaches make their money. They call plays, handle substitutions, and relay information to their players. Head coaches who do not call plays largely make in-game decisions such as timeouts, challenges, and key decisions like when to punt, kick a field goal, or go for it on fourth down.
Those are important decisions but how much do they affect a game? It’s hard to quantify but we will get a chance to find out when Michigan plays Ohio State without Jim Harbaugh on the sideline. Harbaugh will have to watch the game from home due to being suspended, again, this time because of sign stealing. The head coaching duties fall on offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore who will be the man in charge for the fourth time this season. So far, Moore is 3-0 as a head coach but the last two games have been Michigan’s worst performances of the season.
Is that because Harbaugh isn’t on the sideline? Is that because they finally played an opponent with a pulse? Not sure but Moore has his toughest test yet having to lead his program against Ryan Day and Ohio State.
A Heisman Moment for the Chosen Son
Let’s be clear, there is a very slim chance Marvin Harrison Jr. wins the Heisman. He is clearly the best player in college football but the Heisman has turned into a quarterback award. Anyone who watches the game understands that Harrison is the engine that pushes Ohio State offense but he won’t have the requisite stats to win the award. In 11 games he has 1,093 yards and 13 touchdowns on 62 catches.
A great season, but not Heisman-worthy in most years. Harrison Jr. should absolutely be in New York at the end of the season but to win the Heisman he needs to have a Heisman moment in “The Game.” If he goes for over 150 receiving yards and two or more touchdowns and Ohio State wins he will boost his case especially if one of Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. has a bad game and loses to their rivals. Ohio State needs a big game from Marv to reclaim the Big Ten throne but a big game could serve to bolster Marv’s Heisman chances as well.
Ohio State Wins! #GoBucks
It’s time for a prediction. I believe that Ohio State is the better team. The best way I can say it is that Michigan reminds me of Ohio State in 2021. They have holes in the roster and bad moments that are being glossed over because of their recent success. Fairly or unfairly Michigan has earned the benefit of the doubt and no one they’ve played has been able to capitalize on their weaknesses.
Just like Michigan was the team that could capitalize on Ohio State’s weaknesses in 2021, the Buckeyes are the team. Michigan’s offensive line is not great, it may still be better than Ohio State but it is not in contention for the Joe Moore Award like it has been in the years it won. Their running game hasn’t been as effective and it seems as though Sherrone Moore does not trust McCarthy to win them a game in the air. Harbaugh might but he is not on the sideline making those decisions.
Michigan has the best defense in the country, ranking No. One in-stop rate for the entire season. Kyle McCord will need to take a step up if the Buckeyes want to win the game but they have the best player in the country on their team in Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State has the second-best defense in the country according to to stop rate and they have one of the better run-stopping defenses in the country. Ohio State has stepped back on offense but their defense has taken a massive jump forward. I believe Ohio State has arguably the three best players in the game with Marvin Harrison Jr., JT Tuimoloua, and Sonny Styles. That hasn’t stopped them from losing the past two years though.
Ultimately, this game will be won in the trenches. If Ohio State wins this game it means their offensive line has improved enough to withstand Michigan’s incredible interior defensive line. Michigan wins this game by bullying Ohio State up front and making McCord uncomfortable. Ohio State is better in every area on defense from last year and their offense is starting to click. Ohio State will win this game and win the Big Ten.
Ohio State- 30 Michigan- 20
Can Matt Rhule do what Scott Frost couldn’t?
Nebraska has had a very up-and-down season in Matt Rhule’s first year as head coach. At times they’ve looked like a much-improved team who could contend for the West division title. Then they turn around and look like a team that can’t get the Scott Frost stink out of the program. Despite all of this, Nebraska goes into the last week with a chance to do what Frost could never do and that’s make a bowl game.
The problem, they have to get through Iowa to do it. It would not be the worst thing for Rhule not to make a bowl game in year one, the roster is in a tough place and he’s shown enough progress to prove he’s better than Frost ever was. Despite that, it would be very beneficial to Rhule, his program, and the long-suffering Nebraska fans for them to make a bowl game. Iowa, despite winning the West again, is not as good as they have been the previous few years. Nebraska can pull the upset in this game, it won’t be easy but they have a defense that can stop Iowa’s putrid offense.
They just need to not make mistakes on offense and special teams that led to Iowa points. Nebraska can survive one more season without bowl eligibility but Rhule should go and win this game to end this season on a high note.
Kirk Ferentz did it again…
The Iowa Hawkeyes have once again won the Big Ten West with one of the worst offenses in the country. I’m sure Kirk Ferentz is out here somewhere smiling smugly and bemoaning the audacity of interim Athletic Director Beth Goetz’s decision to fire his son and offensive coordinator. This is a terrible outcome because everyone besides Kirk knows he needs to change but if they keep reaching his goals then he will never change.
The new Big Ten can’t get here fast enough some Ferentz can pay for his unwillingness to adjust to the times. Congrats to the players though, they faced a lot of coaching-led adversity but found a way to win games.
Northwestern Head Coach David Braun
Pat Fitzgerald lost his fastball. No one wants to admit it, and he would still be the coach here without being caught for hazing but he was not a good coach the last four years. David Braun is all the proof you needed, this is the same team everyone predicted to win one or two games under Pat. After taking over the interim title in the summer, Braun has brought life into this team, and going into the last game of the season they have a chance to win seven games.
For reference in Fitzgerald’s last three non-pandemic seasons, he won seven games total going 3-9 twice and 1-11 last season. Braun has rightly been awarded for his efforts with the interim tag being removed. I have no idea how this will work out in the future, the conference is getting much harder for teams like Northwestern but Braun is a good step in the right direction for this once lifeless program.
Lincoln Riley wasted Caleb Williams, will he learn his lesson?
I do not think Caleb Williams is a generational NFL prospect. He is, one of the most talented college quarterbacks we’ve ever seen, and his talent was wasted by Riley who is considered one of the brightest offensive coaches in the sport. USC was good last season, they should have won the PAC 12 and made the playoffs but their defense was horrid, and couldn’t stop giving up 40-plus points in big games.
Despite this, Riley made no changes to his defensive staff and decided to double down for this season. He’ll regret that decision for a lifetime. There is a lot of conversation about USC’s defense and he finally fired Alex Grinch, but his offense was also broken this year relying too much on magical moments from Williams instead of succeeding in structure. USC was a bad team in all three phases of the game.
Williams is the most talented quarterback in a long run of talented quarterbacks for Riley and there is nothing to show for it. This is the most important offseason of Riley’s career, especially considering that they have one of the toughest schedules next year in their first season in the Big Ten.
Riley needs to find a new defensive coordinator, and a new quarterback, and rebuild his offensive and defensive lines. This team will not survive a Big Ten schedule as it’s currently constructed. Riley should also consider giving up playcalling. I have no faith Riley will learn the lessons this season is trying to teach him but I’ll be paying attention.
The Civil War and The Apple Cup, let’s get weird
As you are all aware, Oregon and Washington are entering the Big Ten next season and leaving their in-state rivals in conference purgatory. This is added fuel to the fire of two already heated rivalries and I can’t wait to watch these games. Washington at 11-0 with a win over Oregon already controls their destiny, if they win out they make the playoffs. Oregon may not fully control their destiny but it’ll be hard to imagine the playoff committee leaving out a one-loss Oregon if they are the PAC 12 champs and avenged their only loss to Washington in the conference championship game.
Enter Oregon State and Washington State. Washington and Washington State have signed a five-year contract to continue the Apple Cup but this could be the last iteration of the Civil War for a long time. The “little brothers” of these rivalries have a chance to ruin the seasons of their in-state counterparts while simultaneously getting a lot of anger out of their system for being left for dead. It’s probably fair to assume that both Oregon and Washington win but anything can happen on rivalry weekend, especially with the added stakes. Let’s get weird! We deserve at least one upset.
Follow The I-80 Football Show on YouTube: @JordanW330
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Connect with me on Twitter: @JordanW330
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