A Team That Never Punts

[HoldenesqueAlex]

I think there is something to be gained by tracking the data and using them as a tool to help guide decisions and strategy.

But as has been mentioned several times already, there is a lot more that goes into it. I won't rehash the whole thread here; but to base every 4th down decision on a graph is to misunderstand what numbers can tell you and what they most certainly cannot.

Absolutely. I don't think anyone is advocating that coaches should blindly "fire up excel" to make their decisions, but they also should be aware of the data. I think it is pretty clear that going for it on 4th down is under-utilized because of conventional wisdom. Coaches should know this, and it should affect their decision making. This doesn't mean they follow the graph every time, it means it factors into the decision.

of course it means its the wrong decision. go up 8 which forces your opponent to score a td AND a 2 pt conversion just to tie with 6 minutes left in the 4th? my god man, thats what coaching wet dreams are made of! with luck the opposing team has to drive 80 yrds for 6. assuming they can even accomplish that they have 1 shot from the 3 to do it again. THEN, even if they can pull both of those off. i still get the ball back with time on the clock to win the game with nothing more than a field goal. tie game, time on the clock and the ball in my hands.... what more could a coach ask for in any game?

thats the situation every offensive player in the history of the sport has dreamed about.

I didn't watch this game, so I'm not sure of the exact situation, but I still don't find this convincing. If you do make it, you're up 12. That's two possessions, with six minutes left on the clock. It effectively ends the game, depending on timeouts. Whether you take the points or fail to convert, it's still a one possession game (and they need a touchdown). Granted, 8 points is more comfortable than 5, but they still have to drive it all the way down the field. If you try to convert and fail, they have to go 99 yards instead of ~80, a much more difficult proposition. You know, in hindsight, that they were able to make the drive, but I expect 99 yard scoring drives are unlikely.

I don't think it is a slam-dunk decision either way. There are many scenarios that the coaches have to consider, which is why having statistical tools available to them could help them in making the right decision.

 

[martinss01]

I didn't watch this game, so I'm not sure of the exact situation, but I still don't find this convincing. If you do make it, you're up 12. That's two possessions, with six minutes left on the clock. It effectively ends the game, depending on timeouts. Whether you take the points or fail to convert, it's still a one possession game (and they need a touchdown). Granted, 8 points is more comfortable than 5, but they still have to drive it all the way down the field.

8 points and 5 points are NOT the same type of one possession game. if your up 8 points worst case scenario, you tie. 5 and you could very quickly find yourself DOWN 3. that puts you in the hole to the point that on your next possession you have to get a field goal minimum just to tie. 8 points puts you in the drivers seat and lets you finish the game however you want. 5 points puts the other team in control.

go watch the navy tOSU game. on navy's last drive... which team was desperate and which team was in control of where the game was going? if you think navy was in control of that game your nuts.

If you try to convert and fail, they have to go 99 yards instead of ~80, a much more difficult proposition. You know, in hindsight, that they were able to make the drive, but I expect 99 yard scoring drives are unlikely.

tOSU has been very successful over the last couple of years driving the ball 90+ yrds. especially in 05 and 06. believe we did it twice against scum lite in 07.

I don't think it is a slam-dunk decision either way. There are many scenarios that the coaches have to consider, which is why having statistical tools available to them could help them in making the right decision.

i don't have a problem with using statistics to assist in decision making. but the idea of always going for it on 4th down is flat out ignorant. running an offense based entirely on a metrics is equally foolish.

 

[mboden]

The "Punt is the most important play" my a$$ thread:

hmmm...

A coach's case for kicking conventional wisdom to the curb - Jon Wertheim - SI.com

a good read about a team that NEVER punts! Somebody send this article to Tress. (But don't send it via FB or Twitter)

 

[jwinslow]

1) Because all cool people communicate via twitter and facebook.

2) not a new article

3) imo , osu would've been losing to USC by multiple scores in the 4th using this strategy.

Barkley would not have been rattled and forced to punt all day thanks to horrendous starting field position. He certainly would have lead a td drive before the final chance in the game. Starting at midfield, his team would gain momentum from those first down stops and only had to get 1-2 first downs to score.

Forget absolutely dictating the game for 95% of the contest. Instead the crowd would watch USC keep putting up short scoring drives and putting osu in bad field position. You think pryor had trouble putting up points with great field position all day? Good luck with starting at your 10-25 all day instead of midfield quite often.


Like the 4th down statistic systems, they offer data to consider carefully, but absolute systems are extremely reckless.

 

[sammyjenkis]

There's an article on this shit every year and it's always a high school team. It's got to be a lot easier to take this approach if you aren't coaching under a multi-million dollar contract, and there isn't the pressure in every game on every player of losing a shot at the national title.

Playing with a bunch of high schoolers with nothing to lose? Fuck it. GHo for it on fourth and ten from your five.

 

[Taosman]

What would The Hat do?

 

[MaxBuck]

Yeah, I can see where a high school coach who hasn't won jack shit has a lot to teach a Hall of Fame coach with multiple national championships.

 

[martinss01]

What would The Hat do?

what would the dick do on 4th and 1 inside his own territory?

im sure it worked out real well for him.

 

[lvbuckeye]

1) Because all cool people communicate via twitter and facebook.

2) not a new article

3) imo , osu would've been losing to USC by multiple scores in the 4th using this strategy.

Barkley would not have been rattled and forced to punt all day thanks to horrendous starting field position. He certainly would have lead a td drive before the final chance in the game. Starting at midfield, his team would gain momentum from those first down stops and only had to get 1-2 first downs to score.

Forget absolutely dictating the game for 95% of the contest. Instead the crowd would watch USC keep putting up short scoring drives and putting osu in bad field position. You think pryor had trouble putting up points with great field position all day? Good luck with starting at your 10-25 all day instead of midfield quite often.


Like the 4th down statistic systems, they offer data to consider carefully, but absolute systems are extremely reckless.

USC was 3/4 on 4th. maybe they aren't in the position to win the game without going for it...

 

[Jaxbuck]

I was thinking of this thread a couple of times in the game vs IU. Both missed FG drives(not because he missed) would have been excellent situations to go for it imo.

1- The offense had been moving the ball quite well
2- The defense had IU's offense under control
3- For whatever reason IU was getting back to the 30 yard line plus on KO returns so it's not like we would have pinned them any deeper on a KO if he had converted.

Ended up being no big deal but those are the type of spots I'd like to see JT go for it more on 4th and short, convert and really keep the pressure on the other team.

 

[joefoshow]

The coach of the team has great statistics on why they dont punt and with that knowledge I don't know why every high school team at least doesn't follow his example.

 

[jlb1705]

I don't have any evidence for this, but my gut feeling is that going for it on fourth down is going to work at a lower rate as you move up by level in football. I think HS teams will do better on fourth downs and should go for it more often than college, and college more than the pros.

I think that college coaches that do take that risk more often seem to have success with it because it works just like any other gimmick. It's something teams don't see that often and they often don't react well in those uncertain situations. I think that if more teams went for it more often in "unconventional" situations that the rate of success would go down as opponents became more comfortable in those situations.

I think that any coach who makes it a rule - either to never punt or to always punt - is a fucking idiot. I think great coaches are able to make individual decisions within the context of a given situation with a high rate of success. I think there are times where it's a very bad idea to punt and times where it's a very bad idea not to, and I think good coaches can recognize those situations and act accordingly without dealing in absolutes.