It's May Day! Beltane - a happy day, the traditional beginning of summer. But also a day of conspiracy and revolution - the Bavarian Illuminati got their start on May 1, 1776, and communists everywhere celebrate International Workers' Day on the first day of May. For whatever reason, the term "may day" is also the international symbol of distress. In keeping with the spirit of May Day, I will propose a recruiting conspiracy theory that will help to explain the unrest and strife experienced by Buckeye fans last winter.
Let's take a little trip down memory lane. Not too far back, really, just to November of 2006. Around the time of The Game. Back then, Ohio State already had nine verbal commitments (Evan Blankenship, Eugene Clifford, Donnie Evege, Daniel Herron, Nate Oliver, Brandon Saine, Dane Sanzenbacher, Devon Torrence, and Taurian Washington); and the Buckeyes supposedly had "silent" verbals from another dozen or so players (Joseph Barksdale, Josh Brent, Anthony Davis, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Heyward, Jermale Hines, Ben Martin, Brian Rolle, James Scott, Devon Still, Solomon Thomas, and Major Wright, more or less, if my memory serves me well). Plus, Ohio State was still "in" blue chippers like Brandon Green, Ronald Johnson, Deonte Thompson, and Martez Wilson. And Dionte Allen was going to de-commit from Florida State, and DeMarcus Van Dyke was going to de-commit from Miami, and so on and so forth.
Well, if everything had gone Ohio State's way, the Buckeyes would have signed close to 25 players in last year's class; as it turned out, they signed only fifteen, much to the dismay of Buckeye fans across the great State of Ohio. How could our beloved Buckeyes come from ahead to lose five-star talents like Anthony Davis, Devon Still, Josh Brent, and Joseph Barksdale, especially when "we" needed so much help along both lines? Especially when "we" were the number one team in the country? How could the home-town school lose the best in-state prospect (Ben Martin, maybe the best ever, some people said) to a school like Tennessee? And why were the coaches afraid to take a chance on a local stud like Antonio Jeremiah, even if the kid had academic issues? According to the general consensus, the class of 2007 was an outright disaster, with the Buckeyes signing too many "speed" players and not enough linemen; having no success with out-of-state players, but still losing top-flight in-state talent; signing "unknowns" like Evan Blankenship, Dane Sanzenbacher, and Rocco Pentello, while losing interest in big time prospects like Kris O'Dowd and Nic Claytor; etc., etc., etc. And, of course, TRESSEL CAN'T CLOSE!!!!!
Now fast forward a bit, to Signing Day of 2007. As I mentioned above, Ohio State did eventually sign 15 players, all but two of whom were ranked "four stars" by Rivals. Maybe not one for the ages, but not a bad haul nonetheless. At that time, Ohio State had roughly 15 scholarship slots available for the class of 2008, meaning that every Barksdale and Brent and Still and Wright that the Buckeyes would have signed in 2007, would have further reduced the already small numbers available for the class of 2008. And, that class of 2008 had some special players: Mike Adams, Michael Brewster, J.B. Shugarts, Jake Stoneburner, DeVier Posey, Devoe Torrence, Nathan Williams, Ben Buchanan, Andrew Sweat, Shayne Hale, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Jenkins, Kyle Long, Garrett Goebel, and Cordale Scott, just to name a few. And all of them liked the Buckeyes. Some of them liked the Buckeyes a lot. Eight of them have already verballed to Ohio State, and a few more are pretty close.
Okay, so I think you can see that Ohio State was dealing with a numbers crunch in 2007. Would I have liked to sign just one more player last year, maybe a top lineman like Devon Still or Anthony Davis? Sure, but just one. Maybe. But not if it meant losing an Adams, or a Shugarts, or a Brewster, or a Jenkins (fingers crossed). And don't forget Kyle Long. Or Greg Shaw. Ohio State has already "lost" Elliot Mealer to that school up north because the Bucks are in on so many super offensive line prospects, and it's only May. Who else would have been closed out of this year's class if the staff had panicked last year, and offered kids like Mark Wetterer and Nick Schepis and Jeff Spikes? (I know that you remember those guys - you were calling for them to get offers.)
And that brings me to my final point and the root of the conspiracy theory, that old mantra - Tressel can't close! Sure, last year may have given us some evidence in support of that conclusion: Anthony Davis to Rutgers, Devon Still to Penn State, Joseph Barksdale to LSU, Ben Martin to Tennessee, Josh Brent to Illinois, Major Wright to Florida. But, what if ... < cue conspiratorial music > ... Tressel didn't want to close last year? What if he was perfectly happy with signing a class largely composed of solid but not exceptional prospects?
Look at the depth chart for next year - almost all of the prtojected starters will be from the 2005/2006 classes:
Of the 24 players listed above as starters, only five are from the class of 2004, and only two from the class of 2003. The other seventeen are from the classes of 2005 and 2006.
Even if we add in back-ups who should see plenty of action, the numbers still favor the classes of 2005 and 2006:
Only two of the twelve top reserves are from the class of 2004, and the rest are from 2005/2006. So, of the 36 starters and top reserves, the break-down is as follows: class of 2003: two; class of 2004: seven; classes of 2005/2006: twenty-seven.
So what does all of this mean? For one thing, it is now becoming obvious that the large and highly-acclaimed class of 2004 was a bit overrated (okay, maybe quite a bit overrated). Of the 24 signees in that class, four (Haw, Hoobler, Kennedy, and Welch) transferred out of the program, and quite a few more have failed to live up to expectations; and two of the best players (Ginn and Pittman) have already bolted to the NFL. While it might be a bit too early to write off guys who are just entering their junior years, it seems that the following 2004 signees - Abdallah, Barrow, Dukes, Lane, Lyons, Mitchum, Patterson, Skinner, Brandon Smith, and Underwood - are more or less irreversibly buried in the depth chart. And, they are buried primarily behind younger players, recruits from the classes of 2005 and 2006. Believe me, it is a highly unusual situation for a team to have so few fourth- and fifth-year players in the mix for playing time, and to have so many young players so firmly established in the depth chart. As a result, for the next two or three seasons, the bulk of the playing time will be going to the 2005-2006 recruits.
So where does that leave the 2007 kids? Probably backing up established veterans and looking to see the field in three or four years. The main exception will be at running back, where the Buckeyes had only two scholarship players on their roster as of Signing Day, 2007. So, coincidentally (or not), the Buckeyes signed two running backs in 2007, including Brandon Saine, one of the top tailback prospects in the country. Saine should see significant playing time as a true freshman. Funny how things like that work out in the end.
The point is this - For the class of 2007, JT didn't want mercenaries, he wanted acolytes. I thought from the start that 2007 would be a class of "good soldiers", kids who would love to be Buckeyes even if they are career third-stringers (and with the current depth, many of them probably will be). If the Buckeyes' 2007 recruits weren't drinking the scarlet kool-aid, then JT simply cut them loose. Why would our head coach waste a roster spot on a disgruntled high school superstar who would be buried in the depth chart for a couple of seasons, complaining about lack of playing time and disturbing the team chemistry? So, JT either found a die-hard Buckeye who willing to be a team player even if it meant sitting, or he banked the schollie for the much better class of 2008.
Maybe my theory has some holes, but it certainly helps to explain the sudden mass exodus of silent verbals like Devon Still, Anthony Davis, Josh Brent, Joseph Barksdale, Major Wright, etc., etc. etc., guys who, when put on the spot by Jim Tressel, just didn't bleed scarlet and grey. And maybe it also helps to explain why JT couldn't close in 2007. Or at least why he didn't close.
Now does anyone want to complain about the Buckeyes' class of 2008? I didn't think so....
Let's take a little trip down memory lane. Not too far back, really, just to November of 2006. Around the time of The Game. Back then, Ohio State already had nine verbal commitments (Evan Blankenship, Eugene Clifford, Donnie Evege, Daniel Herron, Nate Oliver, Brandon Saine, Dane Sanzenbacher, Devon Torrence, and Taurian Washington); and the Buckeyes supposedly had "silent" verbals from another dozen or so players (Joseph Barksdale, Josh Brent, Anthony Davis, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Heyward, Jermale Hines, Ben Martin, Brian Rolle, James Scott, Devon Still, Solomon Thomas, and Major Wright, more or less, if my memory serves me well). Plus, Ohio State was still "in" blue chippers like Brandon Green, Ronald Johnson, Deonte Thompson, and Martez Wilson. And Dionte Allen was going to de-commit from Florida State, and DeMarcus Van Dyke was going to de-commit from Miami, and so on and so forth.
Well, if everything had gone Ohio State's way, the Buckeyes would have signed close to 25 players in last year's class; as it turned out, they signed only fifteen, much to the dismay of Buckeye fans across the great State of Ohio. How could our beloved Buckeyes come from ahead to lose five-star talents like Anthony Davis, Devon Still, Josh Brent, and Joseph Barksdale, especially when "we" needed so much help along both lines? Especially when "we" were the number one team in the country? How could the home-town school lose the best in-state prospect (Ben Martin, maybe the best ever, some people said) to a school like Tennessee? And why were the coaches afraid to take a chance on a local stud like Antonio Jeremiah, even if the kid had academic issues? According to the general consensus, the class of 2007 was an outright disaster, with the Buckeyes signing too many "speed" players and not enough linemen; having no success with out-of-state players, but still losing top-flight in-state talent; signing "unknowns" like Evan Blankenship, Dane Sanzenbacher, and Rocco Pentello, while losing interest in big time prospects like Kris O'Dowd and Nic Claytor; etc., etc., etc. And, of course, TRESSEL CAN'T CLOSE!!!!!
Now fast forward a bit, to Signing Day of 2007. As I mentioned above, Ohio State did eventually sign 15 players, all but two of whom were ranked "four stars" by Rivals. Maybe not one for the ages, but not a bad haul nonetheless. At that time, Ohio State had roughly 15 scholarship slots available for the class of 2008, meaning that every Barksdale and Brent and Still and Wright that the Buckeyes would have signed in 2007, would have further reduced the already small numbers available for the class of 2008. And, that class of 2008 had some special players: Mike Adams, Michael Brewster, J.B. Shugarts, Jake Stoneburner, DeVier Posey, Devoe Torrence, Nathan Williams, Ben Buchanan, Andrew Sweat, Shayne Hale, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Jenkins, Kyle Long, Garrett Goebel, and Cordale Scott, just to name a few. And all of them liked the Buckeyes. Some of them liked the Buckeyes a lot. Eight of them have already verballed to Ohio State, and a few more are pretty close.
Okay, so I think you can see that Ohio State was dealing with a numbers crunch in 2007. Would I have liked to sign just one more player last year, maybe a top lineman like Devon Still or Anthony Davis? Sure, but just one. Maybe. But not if it meant losing an Adams, or a Shugarts, or a Brewster, or a Jenkins (fingers crossed). And don't forget Kyle Long. Or Greg Shaw. Ohio State has already "lost" Elliot Mealer to that school up north because the Bucks are in on so many super offensive line prospects, and it's only May. Who else would have been closed out of this year's class if the staff had panicked last year, and offered kids like Mark Wetterer and Nick Schepis and Jeff Spikes? (I know that you remember those guys - you were calling for them to get offers.)
And that brings me to my final point and the root of the conspiracy theory, that old mantra - Tressel can't close! Sure, last year may have given us some evidence in support of that conclusion: Anthony Davis to Rutgers, Devon Still to Penn State, Joseph Barksdale to LSU, Ben Martin to Tennessee, Josh Brent to Illinois, Major Wright to Florida. But, what if ... < cue conspiratorial music > ... Tressel didn't want to close last year? What if he was perfectly happy with signing a class largely composed of solid but not exceptional prospects?
Look at the depth chart for next year - almost all of the prtojected starters will be from the 2005/2006 classes:
QB - Boeckman (2003)
RB - C. Wells (2006)
WR - Robiskie (2005)
WR - Hartline (2005)
WR - Small (2006)
TE - Nicol (2004)
TE - Ballard (2006)
OL - Barton (2003)
OL - Boone (2005)
OL - Cordle (2005)
OL - Person (2004)
OL - Rehring (2004)
DE - Gholston (2004)
DE - Wilson (2005)
DT - Denlinger (2005)
DT - Worthington (2005)
LB - Laurinaitis (2005)
LB - Freeman (2004)
LB - Grant (2006)
DB - Jenkins (2005)
DB - Washington (2005)
DB - Russell (2005)
DB - O'Neal (2005)
DB - Coleman (2005)
RB - C. Wells (2006)
WR - Robiskie (2005)
WR - Hartline (2005)
WR - Small (2006)
TE - Nicol (2004)
TE - Ballard (2006)
OL - Barton (2003)
OL - Boone (2005)
OL - Cordle (2005)
OL - Person (2004)
OL - Rehring (2004)
DE - Gholston (2004)
DE - Wilson (2005)
DT - Denlinger (2005)
DT - Worthington (2005)
LB - Laurinaitis (2005)
LB - Freeman (2004)
LB - Grant (2006)
DB - Jenkins (2005)
DB - Washington (2005)
DB - Russell (2005)
DB - O'Neal (2005)
DB - Coleman (2005)
Of the 24 players listed above as starters, only five are from the class of 2004, and only two from the class of 2003. The other seventeen are from the classes of 2005 and 2006.
Even if we add in back-ups who should see plenty of action, the numbers still favor the classes of 2005 and 2006:
QB: Schoenhoft (2005)
QB: Henton (2006)
FB: Johnson (2004)
OL: Smith (2006)
OL: Browning (2006)
DE: Rose (2006)
DT: Larimore (2006)
LB: Terry (2004)
LB: Homan (2006)
DB: Gant (2006)
DB: Amos (2005)
DB: Moeller (2006)
QB: Henton (2006)
FB: Johnson (2004)
OL: Smith (2006)
OL: Browning (2006)
DE: Rose (2006)
DT: Larimore (2006)
LB: Terry (2004)
LB: Homan (2006)
DB: Gant (2006)
DB: Amos (2005)
DB: Moeller (2006)
Only two of the twelve top reserves are from the class of 2004, and the rest are from 2005/2006. So, of the 36 starters and top reserves, the break-down is as follows: class of 2003: two; class of 2004: seven; classes of 2005/2006: twenty-seven.
So what does all of this mean? For one thing, it is now becoming obvious that the large and highly-acclaimed class of 2004 was a bit overrated (okay, maybe quite a bit overrated). Of the 24 signees in that class, four (Haw, Hoobler, Kennedy, and Welch) transferred out of the program, and quite a few more have failed to live up to expectations; and two of the best players (Ginn and Pittman) have already bolted to the NFL. While it might be a bit too early to write off guys who are just entering their junior years, it seems that the following 2004 signees - Abdallah, Barrow, Dukes, Lane, Lyons, Mitchum, Patterson, Skinner, Brandon Smith, and Underwood - are more or less irreversibly buried in the depth chart. And, they are buried primarily behind younger players, recruits from the classes of 2005 and 2006. Believe me, it is a highly unusual situation for a team to have so few fourth- and fifth-year players in the mix for playing time, and to have so many young players so firmly established in the depth chart. As a result, for the next two or three seasons, the bulk of the playing time will be going to the 2005-2006 recruits.
So where does that leave the 2007 kids? Probably backing up established veterans and looking to see the field in three or four years. The main exception will be at running back, where the Buckeyes had only two scholarship players on their roster as of Signing Day, 2007. So, coincidentally (or not), the Buckeyes signed two running backs in 2007, including Brandon Saine, one of the top tailback prospects in the country. Saine should see significant playing time as a true freshman. Funny how things like that work out in the end.
The point is this - For the class of 2007, JT didn't want mercenaries, he wanted acolytes. I thought from the start that 2007 would be a class of "good soldiers", kids who would love to be Buckeyes even if they are career third-stringers (and with the current depth, many of them probably will be). If the Buckeyes' 2007 recruits weren't drinking the scarlet kool-aid, then JT simply cut them loose. Why would our head coach waste a roster spot on a disgruntled high school superstar who would be buried in the depth chart for a couple of seasons, complaining about lack of playing time and disturbing the team chemistry? So, JT either found a die-hard Buckeye who willing to be a team player even if it meant sitting, or he banked the schollie for the much better class of 2008.
Maybe my theory has some holes, but it certainly helps to explain the sudden mass exodus of silent verbals like Devon Still, Anthony Davis, Josh Brent, Joseph Barksdale, Major Wright, etc., etc. etc., guys who, when put on the spot by Jim Tressel, just didn't bleed scarlet and grey. And maybe it also helps to explain why JT couldn't close in 2007. Or at least why he didn't close.
Now does anyone want to complain about the Buckeyes' class of 2008? I didn't think so....
