ESPN's bracketologist shares what he really thinks about every team's chances in the NCAA tournament.
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Joe Lunardi's ultimate guide to men's March Madness 2026
We've made the case for exactly how each team will advance -- and how they won't. Bracketologist in Chief Joe Lunardi also ran the numbers one last time to forecast where each will actually finish in the final field of 68.
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
Why they will advance
After a month of life on the bubble, the Buckeyes quieted the critics with an impressive four-game winning streak -- which included wins over Purdue, Indiana and Iowa -- and then a close loss against mighty Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Now in the field of 68, Ohio State could wreak some havoc, thanks to proven scorers Bruce Thornton (20.2 PPG) and John Mobley Jr. (15.8 PPG).
Why they won't advance
Jake Diebler's squad has struggled at times on the defensive glass, leading to second-chance points for opponents. Another fatal flaw is that the starting five is strong, but the bench offers few reliable options. That means heavy minutes for the core group of Thornton, Mobley, Devin Royal (13.7 PPG), Christoph Tilly (11.1 PPG) and Amare Bynum (9.8 PPG).
Did you know?
In a sign of the NIL times, Thornton is one of just 22 current power-conference men's basketball players to play at the same school for four years. The first four-time captain in Ohio State program history, he surpassed Dennis Hopson (1984-87) this season to become the program's all-time leading scorer. He is at 2,156 career points and counting.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 26
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 31
Joey Brackets says ...
The Buckeyes' core is made up of four double-digit scorers and a fifth (Bynum) within a whisker. They play with a hard-hat toughness, a trait that helped them play themselves firmly off the bubble and into the bracket. But will their stay in Bracketville be lengthy? Probably not, as TCU's balance proves too much in the first tip of the full bracket.
Final field rank: 38
No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs
Why they will advance
The Horned Frogs finished the regular season on somewhat of a roll, winning their final five games and eight of their last nine -- including over then-No. 5 Iowa State and at then-No. 10 Texas Tech. They're balanced, too: Four players average double figures, though no one has more than 13.6 PPG.
Why they won't advance
While TCU is solid in most areas, it is not exceptional at any one thing. In the NCAA tournament, where the competition gets tougher, it doesn't have a superpower to rely on. The Frogs can't depend on 3-point shooting (32.9%), clutch free throw shooting (70.6%) or rebounding dominance (plus-2.7 margin).
Did you know?
TCU is appearing in its 12th NCAA tournament, and Jamie Dixon has been involved in half of those. He helped the Frogs win a game in the tournament in 1987 as the starting point guard, and has been the head coach for the last five appearances. The Frogs are a combined 2-4 so far with him.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 45
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 34
Joey Brackets says ...
A late surge took TCU from the outside of the bubble to solidly in the tournament, and the Frogs have impressed enough to lead me to give them one NCAA win. They've got the moxie to escape Ohio State in a true 50-50 game, but that's it, with Duke on the horizon.
Final field rank: 27
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