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Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
Iran players receive U.S. visas for 2026 World Cup
Just sayin': A match between USA and Iran would be interesting. It will probably never happen; however, according to Google AI it is possible.
The implied odds of Iran playing USA in a 2026 World Cup match sit a roughly +669, as calculated by matching predictive tools, because they are drawn into entirely different groups. To make this match happen, both nations must advance from their respective opening stages and align on a fixed knockout bracket.
Group Stage Landscapes
Because the teams are separate, a group-stage meeting is impossible. Their respective chances to win their groups or advance are:
- The United States (Group D): Drawn with Austria, Paraguay, and Türkiye. The USA is a +125 favorite to win Group D and holds a 78% chance of advancing to the knockout stage.
- Iran (Group G): Drawn with Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Iran is a +650 underdog to win Group G (a 13% implied chance), but holds a strong 74% overall chance to advance to the next round.
A potential matchup relies on two primary pathways in the bracket:
- Scenario 1: Round of 32 (Most Realistic): For the quickest meeting, both the USA and Iran must finish as the runners-up in their respective groups. If this alignment occurs, they will face off directly in a knockout elimination match at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
- Scenario 2: Round of 16: If both teams win their groups and successfully win their subsequent Round of 32 matches, they will advance to meet one another in the Round of 16
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