2026 tOSU Defense Discussion

[Jaxbuck]

They still have some weird issue with holding on to leads late.

This USC offense is legit.

Just sayin

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

They still have some weird issue with holding on to leads late.

This USC offense is legit.

Just sayin

No doubt

The issue you're talking about is, in a way, the opposite of the improvement that I was talking about; but it is just as legit.

In the first place, those issues are down to the pass defense. In the second, those issues are, as you say, NOT showing improvement.

The issue with them from my perspective is that I try to use stats to show trends, and in this case the stats are a result of different things, but one of them is definitely late-game collapses.

Here are the numbers:


Where DPE=Defensive Pass Efficiency

As you can see, the numbers show a defense that is among the best in the nation for the first 3 quarters in DPE.
Then they play the 4th quarter.

As I mentioned, there are two reasons for this.
One big contributor is opponents slinging the ball all over the yard against backups while they try to cut into a huge lead. That is absolutely part of this. But the other part of this is the same thing your eyes are telling you: Late game collapses.

Without taking the time to break things down play-by-play (in past years, I might have actually done that), all I can tell you is that this is the same team that blew a 20 point lead in Austin and almost blew a 12 point lead in Bloomington. There is no sign that whatever is causing the late game collapses is changing.

 

[buckeyebri]

It might have something to do with what seems to be a semi prevent defense that they have been running late in games with a lead

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

It might have something to do with what seems to be a semi prevent defense that they have been running late in games with a lead

In general, this may be true; I don't know. I haven't charted the defensive calls. But the play that was within 8" of giving up** a game-winning touchdown to Indiana was an all-out blitz. The point being that, if this is part of it, then our latest data point suggests that they aren't sticking with what wasn't working, but are changing it up.

**Nevermind the fact that one of the blitzers was held so plainly and obviously that it was the kind of holding that is almost always called even in the B1G

 

[buckeyebri]

In general, this may be true; I don't know. I haven't charted the defensive calls. But the play that was within 8" of giving up** a game-winning touchdown to Indiana was an all-out blitz. The point being that, if this is part of it, then our latest data point suggests that they aren't sticking with what wasn't working, but are changing it up.

**Nevermind the fact that one of the blitzers was held so plainly and obviously that it was the kind of holding that is almost always called even in the B1G

Don’t disagree with you here. But, there was a lot of 3 man rush with umbrella coverage in the late stages.

 

[Bestbuck36]

This has been such a weird year. The defense is better than the numbers show right now in my opinion. Some of that is because they are improving. Honestly, after watching the Illinois game (a long time ago for you guys but I've only jumped back in days ago), I honestly did not understand how that same defense performed the way they did against Indiana. That kind of improvement doesn't usually happen in the space of a few games.

Then there are the scores and short fields given by the offense. The improvement by the defense is difficult to quantify in a meaningful way, but some of the offensive miscues are easy.

For example:

Take the average points that Ohio State's opponents have scored on all other FBS competition this year (994 points) and divide that by the number of games that they've played collectively (39) and you get 25.487 ppg. Now take the Silver Bullets' 13.429 ppg (scoring defense) and divide it by that number and you get 0.527. In other words, the Buckeyes are allowing 52.7% as many points as their opponents usually give up. Some of you might remember that, for lack of a better term, I call this Differential Scoring Defense (DSD).

I have calculated a lot of DSD for a lot of teams over the years, and I can tell you that is very, very good. It's not what I would call elite, but it is good enough to be among the top 5 defenses in any year of this century.

For those of you who are wondering, the 2025 defense had a DSD of 34.4%. That is literally the second best number I have ever seen. The only team better was 2011 Alabama, who had an absolutely ridiculous DSD of 25.6%. The 2025 were better than any other defense of this century.

The numbers say the same thing that your eyes will tell you about the 2026 edition... they're not as good.

Bear in mind however, that there has been some weirdness this year; which brings us all the way back to the point. Those offensive miscues (with help from the zebras) have had a dramatic effect. Take away the pick 6 against Maryland, and the Buckeyes DSD goes below 50% (49.3% to be precise). Take away the interception by Indiana that gave them the ball at the 7 (which only happened because of an uncalled mugging of Jeremiah Smith) and the DSD drops to 45.4%, which is truly elite (top 15 this century or thereabouts).

With the trajectory this defense is on, this team's ceiling is not capped by the defense. As far as that side of the ball is concerned, the sky is the limit.

My gosh how I've missed these.