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2026 College Football Playoff Discussion

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BigWoof31 said:
Power Rank the wins in terms of difficulty for two championship level Ohio State teams (as it relates to playoffs):

2014 B1G Title against UW (effectively a playoff game)
2014 Sugar Bowl vs. Bama
2014 Title Game vs. Oregon
2024 vs. Tennessee (home)
2024 vs. Oregon (Rose)
2024 vs. Texas (Cotton)
2024 vs. ND (Title)

How accurate is this ranking. (Most difficult to easiest):

1). 2014 Sugar Bowl vs. Bama
2). 2024 vs. ND (Title)
3). 2024 vs. Texas (Cotton)
4). 2014 Title Game vs. Oregon
5). 2024 vs. Oregon (Rose)
6). 2024 vs. Tennessee (home)
7). 2014 B1G Title against UW (effectively a playoff game)
Click to expand...

Trying to not be a homer:
1) 2024 Texas -they were a bad match up for the 2024 OSU team and could have easily won that game. The big plays and breaks went OSU's way
2) 2014 Bama-incredibly mediocre QB handicapped a great Bama team. All time RB that just didn't get the ball enough (Thanks Lane!) and they didn't take us seriously.
3) 2024 Oregon; That team was good, they just ran into a buzzsaw and were not a great match up (for them).
4) 2014 Wisky- they had the type of team that could beat OSU all year. OSU run D played at a previously unseen level and UW had no idea what Cardale Jones could do (not really their fault)
5-6-7 in any order 2014 Oregon, 2024 ND and 2024 UT were all physically over matched. Unforced OSU turnovers and or taking the foot off the gas made moments of those games appear closer than they were. Put a gun to my head the most physically outclassed opponent of them all was 2014 Oregon.
 
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College football bowl projections: Slotting all 46 games, new CFP teams after Oklahoma, UCLA upsets

Updated bowl projections coming out of the craziest week of the season so far
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College football bowl projections: Slotting all 46 games, new CFP teams after Oklahoma, UCLA upsets​

Updated bowl projections coming out of the craziest week of the season so far​

College Football Playoff ​

First round​

Projection: (9) UCLA at (8) Texas

Bob Chesney got his breakthrough win with the Bruins, and now, UCLA enters the CFP mix for the first time this season as one of two unbeatens left in the Big Ten after Week 6. Unfortunately for UCLA, quarterback Nico Iamaleava left the win in the second half, and his injury status is unknown. This offense changes if he's unable to return in the coming weeks.

Texas losing to Oklahoma pushes the Longhorns back a few spots. There are a couple of throws Arch Manning would like back from Red River, but he still has one of the nation's best resumes, considering previous wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. A strong finish will be more than enough to get into the bracket.

Projection: (10) Ole Miss at (7) Utah

Ole Miss gets the nod in the No. 10 spot after passing the eye test in Nashville. The Rebels clobbered Vanderbilt in their first game since losing at Florida and seemed to finally find their footing defensively. Missouri, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Mississippi State are still on the schedule, so this CFP berth is far from wrapped up for Ole Miss.

Utah's one of four teams likely to decide the Big 12 as the Utes join BYU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Where it gets sticky for at-large hopefuls is the possibility of this conference's runner-up finishing with 11 (or more) wins. That would be a bid-stealing scenario against the likes of the SEC, which is hoping to place five teams in the bracket for the first time.

Projection: (11) Kentucky at (6) Indiana

That's right -- Will Stein and Kentucky have entered the CFP zone. The Wildcats are 5-1 this season with consecutive 35-34 overtime wins, the latest coming against 10th-ranked LSU. It's a devastating loss for the Tigers, who drop out of the CFP mix this week and are one loss away from being out of it altogether.

The Hoosiers tied Ohio State's Big Ten record with its 22nd straight win, and Curt Cignetti improved to 27-0 at Indiana against unranked teams following Saturday's comeback at Nebraska. The 20-17 victory may have told us more about the Huskers than it did the Hoosiers, who have narrowly escaped two Big Ten opponents to stay unblemished ahead of next weekend's mammoth battle against Ohio State.

Projection: (12) Boise State at (5) Notre Dame

The Broncos stay as the Group of Six favorite this week following Saturday night's 38-31 victory at Fresno State. Notre Dame's in the No. 5 spot with the projection that the Fighting Irish's lone regular-season loss comes against Miami in early November. Notre Dame looks explosive offensively and if Marcus Freeman's team finish 11-1, at worst, they're going to be the 5-seed.

Quarterfinals​

PEACH BOWL — Projection: (8) Texas vs. (1) Miami
COTTON BOWL — Projection: (10) Ole Miss vs. (2) Georgia
ROSE BOWL — Projection: (6) Indiana vs. (3) Ohio State
FIESTA BOWL — Projection: (5) Notre Dame vs. (4) Alabama

Semifinals​

ORANGE BOWL — Projection: (1) Miami vs. (4) Alabama
SUGAR BOWL — Projection: (2) Georgia vs. (3) Ohio State
 
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Connelly's CFP tiers: How 29 contenders stack up after Week 9​

The first two months of the college football season were messy and increasingly chaotic. Week 9 was no exception, though a lot of its surprises were either (A) games that were projected to be close but were blowouts instead or (B) close calls for top teams.

No. 1 Miami (tight win over North Carolina), No. 4 Indiana (overtime win over Minnesota) and No. 8 BYU (tight win over Arizona State) all fit the latter category. Other than USC knocking off a wounded Ohio State, the underdogs couldn't quite get it done against the top teams this time around.

But forget all that -- it's November now. Virtually everything we eventually remember about the 2026 season will happen from this point forward. And with the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season coming out Tuesday, let's spin this forward a bit with help from some playoff tiers.
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Tier 3​

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UCLA (8-0, 71.2%)
Ohio State (6-2, 68.6%)
Wake Forest (7-1, 65.4%)

On average, about 2.1 of these three teams make it. That means, of course, that about one won't. And as strange as this sounds, the blue blood is probably the most vulnerable. In Ohio State's first game after losing quarterback Julian Sayin to injury, the Buckeyes ran the ball pretty well against USC and got a decent performance from freshman Luke Fahey. But they kept settling for field goals, and their defense allowed 6.8 yards per play and three touchdowns to a Trojans offense that got humbled by Wisconsin last week.

USC was the first of five straight SP+ top-30 opponents the Buckeyes will face to end the regular season, likely all without Sayin, and when the defense needed to step up a bit to help out the offense, it couldn't do it. That's pretty foreboding.

The other two teams in this tier continued to look the part Saturday. UCLA handled Nevada with ease, pitching a 27-0 shutout and moving up to fourth nationally in fewest points allowed per drive. (Yes, the Bruins were playing Nevada, but hey, at 93rd in SP+, the Wolf Pack aren't that far behind three of UCLA's recent Big Ten opponents -- Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State.) They're projected favorites in each of four remaining regular-season games, and while games against Michigan and USC are relative toss-ups, the Bruins also still have a mulligan. SP+ says their most likely regular-season record is 11-1, which would obviously get them in.

Wake Forest, meanwhile, has simply looked like one of the best teams in the country in recent weeks. The Demon Deacons have beaten SP+ projections for seven straight weeks and have beaten their past four opponents by an average of 47-8. Each of those four opponents is currently among the bottom seven in the ACC, but ... 47-8! Gio Lopez and the Deacs' offense are up to second nationally in points per drive, combining extreme efficiency with only three turnovers.

They still have to face SMU (away) and Duke (home) and therefore have only a 32% chance of ending the regular season 11-1. But they would still have a chance of getting in at 10-2, and they could also get in by winning the ACC no matter their record.
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The first set of CFP Rankings sure suck; Ohio State is ranked 12th overall and apparently gets bumped out by Boise State:

College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after first ranking​


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Indiana hasn't exactly passed the eye test -- but clearly the SEC has.

The three big lessons learned:
  • The SEC has reasserted itself at the top of the sport, with five teams ranked in the top 10, led by No. 2 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama.
  • And though the Hoosiers are leading the way for the Big Ten, No. 12 Ohio State has no margin for error. The Buckeyes would miss the playoff if it were today because they'd be bumped out to make room for the highest Group of 6 team -- No. 25 Boise State.
  • At No. 11, Notre Dame clearly has to beat Miami on Saturday. There's no guarantee for the Irish if they don't finish in the top 12 on Selection Day.
The Big 12 is still in good shape to get two teams in, as No. 3 Utah and No. 9 BYU are in safe spots for now, with No. 15 Texas Tech in a decent position on the bubble.

Just sayin': I think it pretty obvious that the only way Ohio State gets into the CFPs with 3 losses is to win the B1G CCG and get the automatic conference championship bid. However, Ohio State getting into the B1G CCG with 2 conference losses is not guaranteed.
 
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I think in the previous 2 years they've done a good job at being pretty fair and not drinking the SEC Kool aid. However in this last year of the 12 teamer, this first poll looks strategic to help them maximize the SEC teams they can jam in
 
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