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2025-2026 Ohio State Men's Basketball

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Mapping out the optimal realistic scenario for OSU to finish the regular season ...

1) OSU wins their last two (favored in both)
2) UCLA splits their last two (Huskers FTW!)
3) Iowa loses at least one of two (underdogs in both)

In this scenario, OSU would manage to be the #7 seed in the Big Ten tournament. Head-to-head the tiebreaker would give OSU a seeding advantage over UCLA. It would be a significant advantage to be the #7 and play the #2 (Sparty/Huskers) instead of having to face UM. Right now OSU would be the #9 seed due to losing the tiebreaker with Iowa, you don't want to be below #8 because that means playing on Wednesday. #7 and #8 don't play their first games until Thursday. As if we needed more reasons for OSU to take PSU seriously as a must-win type of game ...
 
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DZ83CK said:
Mapping out the optimal realistic scenario for OSU to finish the regular season ...

1) OSU wins their last two (favored in both)
2) UCLA splits their last two (Huskers FTW!)
3) Iowa loses at least one of two (underdogs in both)

In this scenario, OSU would manage to be the #7 seed in the Big Ten tournament. Head-to-head the tiebreaker would give OSU a seeding advantage over UCLA. It would be a significant advantage to be the #7 and play the #2 (Sparty/Huskers) instead of having to face UM. Right now OSU would be the #9 seed due to losing the tiebreaker with Iowa, you don't want to be below #8 because that means playing on Wednesday. #7 and #8 don't play their first games until Thursday. As if we needed more reasons for OSU to take PSU seriously as a must-win type of game ...
Click to expand...
With the Bruins knocking off Nebraska yesterday, it is obviously most likely that OSU will be in the 8-9 game now. The only real question is if they're going to be the 8 or the 9.
 
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henry_muto said:
Now that Iowa lost, a win vs Indiana = first Big Ten tournament game on Thursday which is huge because it means you don't have a chance to play a bad team that will wreck your tournament chances if you lose.
Click to expand...
Obviously we want OSU to have the double-bye; however, there is no guarantee that Iowa will beat the winner of Maryland/Oregon, as the Hawkeyes have already lost to Maryland and PSU this season. Yes, it reduces the odds of OSU having a bad loss there, but it's not guaranteed. I like it more from the standpoint of I do want to see OSU try and compete for the B1G tourney championship, and it's much more likely from a Thursday start. If they can find a way to beat Iowa (or MD/Oregon) and upset UM, I could see them taking the tournament. But those first two games could be the toughest.
 
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Current standings (7th-10th)​

7) UCLA, 12-7
8) Ohio State, 11-8
9) Iowa, 10-9
10) Indiana, 9-10

7-Seed​

In order for Ohio State to get the 7-seed, two things would need to happen this weekend:
  • UCLA loses to USC on Saturday, finishing with a 12-8 B1G record.
  • Ohio State beats Indiana on Saturday, finishing with a 12-8 B1G record.
Because Ohio State won the only regular-season meeting between the two teams, the Buckeyes would earn the tiebreaker over the Bruins and get the 7-seed. UCLA would then claim the 8-seed.

As mentioned above, the 7-seed would get a double bye and would play their first game on Thursday, March 12, at 6:30 p.m. ET. With a win, the 7-seed would face the 2-seed on Friday, which could be Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, or Wisconsin. More importantly, they would not have to face top-seeded Michigan until the championship game, hypothetically.

8-Seed​

In order for Ohio State to get the 8-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, two different scenarios could play out:
Scenario 1:
  • UCLA beats USC on Saturday, finishing with a 13-7 B1G record.
  • Ohio State beats Indiana on Saturday, finishing with a 12-8 B1G record.
Pretty straightforward - if UCLA wins and gets to 13 conference wins, they finish ahead of Ohio State. If Ohio State holds serve at home against Indiana, the Buckeyes will finish ahead of Iowa and are guaranteed the 8-seed.
Scenario 2:
  • Ohio State loses to Indiana on Saturday, finishing with an 11-9 B1G record.
  • Iowa loses to Nebraska on Sunday, finishing with a 10-10 B1G record.
In this scenario, Ohio State’s hypothetical loss on Saturday would leave them vulnerable to dropping to the 9-seed, but if Iowa also loses, they would finish above the Hawkeyes. UCLA’s game would become irrelevant in this scenario.

As mentioned above, the 8-seed would get a double bye and would play their first game on Thursday, March 12, at 12 noon ET. With a win, the 8-seed would advance to playing top-seeded Michigan in the quarterfinals on Friday at 12 noon ET.

9-Seed​

In order for Ohio State to get the 9-seed, two things would have to happen this weekend:
  • Ohio State loses to Indiana on Saturday, finishing with an 11-9 B1G record.
  • Iowa beats Nebraska on Sunday, finishing with an 11-9 B1G record.
In this scenario, UCLA’s game against USC is no longer relevant because once Ohio State loses, it cannot catch the Bruins and can only be impacted by Iowa. If the Hawkeyes beat Nebraska, they would tie Ohio State at 11-9 and, because they beat the Buckeyes in the regular season, would own the tiebreaker and get the higher seed.

If this happened, Ohio State would get a “single-bye” and play on Wednesday at 12 noon ET against the winner of the 16-seed and 17-seed. If they won that game, they would advance to play 8-seed Iowa on Thursday at 12 noon ET. If they were to win that, they would advance to face top-seeded Michigan on Friday, and would be Ohio State’s third game in three days.
 
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Welcome to the Big Dance everyone!!!

Wisky will likely move into the top 30 of the NET tomorrow with their win over Purdue and if NW holds their top 75 position (currently 69) that will give Ohio State 3 quad 1 wins.

Either way I believe Ohio State 100% locked up their spot and likely won't even be in Dayton.

A lot of teams lost today again and Ohio State keeps on winning.

Last note of business

Ohio State will be either a 7 or 8 seed in the Big Ten tournament and will start on Thursday.

#7 seed if USC beats UCLA tonight
#8 seed if UCLA wins
 
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OSU finishes with 12 regular-season conference wins, most since 2021-22 (also 12). Remarkably, this is the first time OSU has finished the regular season with 20+ wins since the 2019-20 season. Other teams have gotten there since, but partly due to postseason victories. The last time OSU had BOTH 20+ regular-season wins AND 12+ regular-season conference wins in the same year was the 2017-18 season. Progress!
 
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