bukIpower
Head Coach
Would take that bet all day... the 2020 game will be just an ass beatingESPN's FPI makes projections for every Ohio State football game
After a 13-1 finish, a third straight Big Ten championship and a College Football Playoff berth, Ohio State is primed for another big season in 2020.
ESPN.com is rolling out its Football Power Index (FPI) for the new season. These computerized rankings can give us a decent idea of how Ohio State will do next fall. Of course, it helps to understand what the FPI is before we dive into its projections for OSU in every game next season.
Here's how ESPN describes the FPI:
FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams.
Using the FPI rankings, Ohio State is predicted to have a 90 percent or better chance to win 10 of its 12 regular season games. The two outliers are the road games at Oregon and Penn State, where OSU is predicted to win each game by a likelihood of roughly 62 percent.
Let's take a look at Ohio State’s overall FPI metrics as well as the FPI's game-by-game projections for the Buckeyes (and also my early predictions on start times for OSU’s 2020 games).
OHIO STATE OVERALL FPI METRICS
* FPI Score: 30.0
* FPI Rank: Second nationally
* Projected Win-Loss Record: 11.3-1.3 (second nationally)
* Chances of Winning Out: 18.4 percent
* Chances of Winning Conference: 49.3 percent
* SOS Remaining Rank: 24th
See projections for all the games: https://247sports.com/college/ohio-...tions-for-2020-season-146302370/#146302370_12
MICHIGAN
Jim Harbaugh is back for his sixth season as the Michigan coach
* Date: Nov. 28
* Location: Ohio Stadium
* Result/Projection: 91.7 percent Ohio State win
* The Series: Michigan is 58-51-6 all-time against Ohio State. OSU has won the teams’ last eight meetings, including last year’s 56-27 rout in Ann Arbor. OSU has won its last nine home games against Michigan, dating to a loss in 2000.
* The Skinny: Michigan (9-4, 6-3) moves on from Shea Patterson at quarterback. Coach Jim Harbaugh is back for his sixth year at the helm at his alma mater. He will decide between a pair of 6-5 juniors Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton.
RB Chris Evans is due back after missing last year due to injury. Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins shared that role last season. Nico Collins and Ronnie Bell are back at wide receiver.
Michigan has a decent enough group returning on defense to where the Wolverines should be able to again push for nine or 10 wins.
Michigan’s FPI ranking is 12.9 (19th nationally). That would make Ohio State a 17-point favorite over Michigan.
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