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2019 NCAA Baseball Tourney (Official Thread)

2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament Bracket Analysis
By Teddy Cahill Joe Healy on May 27, 2019

The selection committee on Monday revealed the 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket and it delivered one big surprise among the at-large bids, selecting Texas Christian as the last team in the field ahead of teams such as Central Florida, Houston, Missouri and Texas State.


TCU finished the season 32-26 and ranked No. 59 in RPI, the worst of any at-large team and below Arizona, Brigham Young, Houston, Texas State, UCF and UC Irvine—all teams also considered to be on the bubble.


But the Horned Frogs went 14-15 against Big 12 competition and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament. They also had a dozen wins against top-50 opponents, more than any of the other bubble teams, and won 16 games away from Fort Worth.


That rationale—an emphasis on top-50 wins and not on RPI—also seemed to drive the selection committee’s decision to award a home regional to Mississippi, which was announced Sunday night. The Rebels ranked No. 22 in RPI, typically outside the range necessary for an SEC team to host, but the Rebels went 20-19 against top-50 opponents. No team in the country played more games against top-50 competition, and their 20 wins in those games were far more than Miami (15), North Carolina State (11) and Texas A&M (14), the other teams that were in the hosting race.


That kind of emphasis is somewhat of a departure for the committee, which at times in the past has used RPI as a crutch. But in a year where the RPI always felt a little off—Oregon State and Stanford have never fared well and Auburn and Tennessee maintained top-20 RPIs despite having losing records in the SEC—going away from a strict reliance on RPI was probably necessary.


Most of the rest of the field aligned with Baseball America’s final projections, which had 63 of the 64 teams correct for the third year in a row. The selection committee seeded Georgia Tech at No. 3, higher than had been expected, but, again, the Yellow Jackets fared better in top-50 wins (19) than in RPI (No. 8)

Most Dangerous Lower Seeds

Everyone is looking for this year’s Cinderella, a team like Kent State or Stony Brook that can make a run to the College World Series despite being a No. 3 or 4 seed in its regional. Here are this year’s most dangerous No. 3 and 4 seeds.


Three Seeds

Coastal Carolina — The Chanticleers didn’t have the regular season they would have liked, but this was a Top 25 team for much of the first half of the season, so the potential to get through a regional is clearly there. As a team, Coastal is hitting .309/.418/.506 with 87 home runs, and it got a relatively favorable draw in going to Atlanta to face off with Auburn and potentially Georgia Tech. Those are two teams whose pitching staffs have been compromised due to injury, which could creative a very offense-minded regional, and that plays into Coastal’s hand. The Chanticleers are also hot, having won five straight games to win the Sun Belt Tournament.


Fresno State — With the way it laid waste to the Mountain West Conference over the last few weeks to double up and win both the regular season and tournaments titles, Fresno State has to be on the short list of hottest teams in college baseball. It drew UC Santa Barbara to open in the Stanford Regional, which is a tough draw, but hard-throwing righthander Ryan Jensen (11-1, 2.92) is capable of shutting down a talented UCSB offense. Offensively, outfielder Zach Ashford (.386/.496/.543) and third baseman McCarthy Tatum (.353/.397/.601, 12 HR) have helped lead a Bulldogs’ lineup hitting .300 as a team.


Four Seeds

Army — Beware the No. 4 seed that has been there before, and last season, not only were the Black Knights in a regional, they took down host team North Carolina State in their opening game. A whole host of key contributors from that team will head to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech this time around, including outfielder Jacob Hurtubise (.383/.550/.456), whose 45 stolen bases are the most of any player in a regional, the one-two rotation punch of lefthander Tyler Giovinco (8-5, 3.43) and righthander Daniel Burggraaf (5-2, 2.85), and lefthanded reliever Cam Opp (3.53, 5 SV).


Ohio State — The Buckeyes will head to Nashville as one of the most battled-tested and hottest No. 4 seeds in the field. OSU had to sweep a series at Purdue on the last weekend of the regular season just to get into the Big Ten Tournament, and once in Omaha, it had to play five games, including two on Sunday, to clinch the automatic bid. Outfielder Dominic Canzone (.351/.448/.628) had a real claim to the Big Ten player of the year award, and workhorse lefty reliever Andrew Magno (2.33, 13 SV) was named Big Ten Tournament MVP after throwing 9.2 scoreless innings across four appearances last week.

Hardest Regionals

Baton Rouge — It’s not an easy draw for Louisiana State, the No. 13 overall seed. The Tigers open against Stony Brook, which famously upset LSU in the 2012 Baton Rouge Super Regional on its Cinderella run to the College World Series. The Sea Wolves don’t have that kind of talent, but they’re a tough team that’s used to playing road games and has already played in a big-time SEC venue this year, having visited Arkansas for a weekend in March. Arizona State, the No. 2 seed, led the nation in home runs in the regular season and has one of the most potent lineups the country, fronted by outfielder Hunter Bishop and first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Southern Mississippi, the No. 3 seed, got hot in the Conference USA Tournament after scuffling down the stretch and the Golden Eagles have some big time bats of their own, including outfielder Matt Wallner.


Corvallis — Oregon State was the last host school, so it makes sense that it would have one of the toughest regionals. Creighton, the Big East champion, is a tough No. 2 seed having won 38 games and it won’t be thrown off by the travel, having played 31 of their 49 games away from home this year. Michigan is a tricky No. 3 seed with a tough one-two punch at the front of its rotation in righthander Karl Kauffman and lefthander Tommy Henry, not to mention an athletic, exciting lineup. No. 4 seed Cincinnati just swept through the American Athletic Conference Tournament and has completely turned its season around in the last two months, going 20-13 since the start of April after beginning the year 10-16.


Stanford — The all-California regional will be a tricky affair. Stanford has been ranked near the top of the Baseball America Top 25 all season, but its metrics never aligned with that evaluation and so it got seeded No. 11 overall. For its trouble, it gets UC Santa Barbara, the Big West champion that ranks fourth in the nation with 45 wins, as its No. 2 seed. The Gauchos haven’t been tested like this so far this season, but they’re a talented bunch. Fresno State rolled through the Mountain West Conference and has some premium talent in righthander Ryan Jensen, outfielder Zach Ashford and catcher Carter Bins. And Sacramento State is a pesky No. 4 seed. The Hornets won five straight elimination games in the Western Athletic Conference Tournament and won’t be an easy out this weekend.


Easiest Regionals

Fayetteville — Arkansas, the No. 5 overall seed, can feel good about this draw. California, the No. 2 seed, has played a lot of premium teams tough, but it ultimately didn’t win a series against an NCAA Tournament team. Texas Christian, the No. 3 seed, was the surprise team in the Field of 64, and while the Horned Frogs have some good wins, they also have some bad losses. Central Connecticut State, the No. 4 seed, upset Bryant in the Northeast Conference Tournament championship game and that shouldn’t be taken lightly, but the Blue Devils haven’t played anywhere like Baum Stadium since their 2017 NCAA Tournament appearance at TCU.


Los Angeles — As the No. 1 overall seed, it’s only right that UCLA be given an easier regional. Baylor, the No. 2 seed, has ground out a strong season and made a run at the Big 12 title. But it’s also lost five of its last seven games going into the NCAA Tournament and is just 9-11 away from Waco. Loyola Marymount, the No. 3 seed, put together a solid year but is 0-2 against UCLA in midweek games this season and doesn’t have the pitching to match up with the Bruins’ weekend arms. Nebraska-Omaha, the No. 4 seed, is an excellent story as it makes its NCAA Tournament debut and did win a game at Southern California on opening weekend, but the Mavericks aren’t a scary opening game.


Starkville — It’s not a bad draw for Mississippi State, the No. 6 overall seed. Miami, the No. 2 seed, is talented, but it only won three series against tournament teams and they were all in Coral Gables. The Hurricanes are also lacking postseason experience after missing regionals the last two years and now will have to go play in what will be a packed Dudy Noble Field. Central Michigan, the No. 3 seed, has put together a spectacular season and is red-hot, but it also has only played one top-100 opponent (Illinois State) and it lost that series. Southern, the No. 4 seed, does own a win against LSU this season, but it's not going to be able to match Mississippi State’s talent in the opening game.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/sto...tnNR8mQIzZrkK4R-hen1L1M2dwn4W3HglPfAyeByH6UJY
 
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TICKET INFORMATION

Tickets for the Nashville Regional are currently on sale via vucommodores.com. Infield single game tickets are $20, while outfield single game tickets are $15. Infield adult series are $125. Outfield adult series tickets are $80 and outfield youth series tickets are $65.

ON THE MOUND


Friday: RHP Garrett Burhenn (6-3, 3.53 ERA) vs. RHP Drake Fellows (11-0, 4.05 ERA)

LEADING OFF

– Ohio State is 35-25 overall and finished Big Ten play with a 12-12 mark.

– Ohio State earned an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament after claiming the 2019 Big Ten Tournament title in Omaha, Neb.

– The Buckeyes are making their 22nd appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Greg Beals has guided the Buckeyes to the NCAA Tournament in three of the last four years.

– The Scarlet and Gray are one of five Big Ten teams to advance to a NCAA Regional (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Nebraska).

– Ohio State claimed its 10th Big Ten Tournament title in school history with a 3-1 win over Nebraska in front of 17,503 fans at TD Ameritrade Park last Sunday. The Buckeyes became the lowest seed ever to win the Big Ten Tournament (No. 7.)

– The Buckeyes claimed 31 wins during the regular season, marking the seventh time in nine years Ohio State has claimed at least 30 wins under head coach Greg Beals.

– The 10 Big Ten tournament titles are tied for the most in the conference with Minnesota.

– Ohio State is one of two schools in the nation that went to an FBS Bowl, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, the NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament and the NCAA Baseball Tournament (Arizona State).

– Ohio State is 43-43 all-time in the NCAA Tournament and 33-31 in regional games.

– This is the third NCAA appearance under ninth-year head coach Greg Beals. He took the Buckeyes to the 2016 Louisville Regional and the 2018 Greenville Regional. Beals also made a NCAA appearance in 2006 as head coach at Ball State. He is 2-6 in NCAA play.

– Friday will be the first meeting between Ohio State and Vanderbilt in 44 years ( since 1975). Ohio State is 4-0 vs. the Commodores.

– Head coach Greg Beals is 296-228-1 overall at Ohio State and holds a 539-430-1 career coaching record.

– The Buckeyes are 11-2 in their last 13 games, going 4-1 at the Big Ten Tournament in Omaha last week.

– Ohio State is hitting .268 as a team with 97 doubles, 14 triples and 64 homers.

– The OSU pitching staff has combined for a 4.59 ERA with 551 strikeouts in 547.1 innings of work.

– The staff holds the Ohio State single-season strikeouts record, passing the 2016 team (495).

– Junior Dominic Canzone leads the Big Ten in batting average (.350), slugging (.621), runs scored (62), hits (85) and total bases (151). He also has knocked 15 homers and 17 doubles.

– Canzone is one of six players in the country with at least 60 runs scored, 80 hits and 15 homers.

– Canzone is on a program-record 56-game reached base streak. It’s the second-longest active streak in the nation. Canzone was a first-team All-Big Ten selection.

– Freshman Garrett Burhenn will be making the start Friday night vs. Vanderbilt. He missed the Big Ten tournament due to injury during the Purdue series two weeks ago. Burhenn is 6-3 with a 3.53 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 86.2 innings of work. Burhenn was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman team.

– Andrew Magno is 4-3 with a 2.20 ERA and 14 saves in 30 appearances out of the bullpen. He claimed four saves last week to be named the Big Ten Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.

– The 2019 Buckeyes returned 15 letter-winners from the 2018 NCAA Tournament team that finished with a 36-24 overall record. The team welcomed 16 newcomers in the fall. Eleven freshmen have made their collegiate debuts this spring.

https://buckeyeswire.usatoday.com/2...qFiZHZIkS45CvlOV25YyUnMn8IZ7U8Dbx-3h7_NF2QA7k
 
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NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball Predictions


National Champion
UCLA – The Bruins are the most complete team in the country. They have the best pitching staff and defense, and this isn’t the UCLA team that won the 2013 national title while hitting .250 as a team in the height of college baseball’s dead-bat era, this group has serious offensive firepower. They’ve been consistent all season long, not losing a series despite playing a punishing schedule. A College World Series finals against Vanderbilt would be an incredible matchup, but one that UCLA should win. - Teddy Cahill


Vanderbilt - From beginning to end this season, Vanderbilt has looked the part of a national title favorite and it will go into the postseason piping hot, having won its last six SEC series and the SEC Tournament title. With enviable lineup depth, headlined by national player of the year candidate JJ Bleday and third baseman Austin Martin, and a solid pitching staff led by veteran righthanders Drake Fellows and Patrick Raby, the Commodores are a team devoid of obvious weaknesses. - Joe Healy


UCLA - With a season long of consistency and as much of a balanced team that there is in the country the UCLA Bruins is my pick as the national champion, beating Vanderbilt in the championship series. It will be an epic showdown of two great teams, who are both led by very good coaching staffs. - Dave Serrano



Surprise Team

Campbell – The Camels are a part of a wide-open Greenville Regional, where any of East Carolina, North Carolina State or Campbell has a real shot at winning. The Camels already own wins this year against both ECU and NC State and after playing in regionals a year ago, nothing about this weekend should overwhelm them. They have legit pro talent in outfielder Matthew Barefoot and righthander Seth Johnson and plenty of experience throughout the team. Cinderella couldn’t have asked for a better ball to go to. - Teddy Cahill


Illinois - The Illini, a team with an intriguing mix of experienced veterans and young, breakout stars, are a group eager to make their own mark in the postseason now that it has been a full four years since that magical 2015 season in Champaign that saw them win 27 straight games and reach super regionals. This type of tough, battle-tested team could be a tough test for a team like Ole Miss that has struggled at times this season to find consistency. - Joe Healy


Tennessee - The Vols stumbled in the first round in SEC Tournament, losing to Auburn, but may have learned how to handle postseason baseball. They have a strong pitching staff which had its struggles at times in the second half, but is still deep in arms. The offense has been much more consistent lately and I believe even though it will be on road they received a favorable draw in the Chapel Hill Regional and a potential super regional matchup with the Atlanta Regional, where their strengths can propel them into Omaha. - Dave Serrano


Breakout Star

Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt – Much like Adley Rutschman a year ago, Martin’s excellence has gotten a bit overshadowed this season at Vanderbilt. He’ll have a chance to change that this month. The sophomore is hitting .414/.504/.613 with six home runs and 17 stolen bases and can impact the game in many different ways. On a team full of big bats, Martin is the catalyst at the top of the lineup that makes everything go for the Commodores. - Teddy Cahill


Alec Burleson, UTL, East Carolina - Burleson, a two-way player, has quietly been a monster for the Pirates this season. At the plate, he's hitting .370/.392/.589 with 21 doubles, nine home runs, 54 RBI and only 12 strikeouts in 219 at-bats. On the mound, in a swing role, he has a 2.98 ERA, 54 strikeouts and a .236 opponent batting average in 51.1 innings of work. With all that he brings to the table, Burleson is the type of player who can put a team on his back for an entire weekend. - Joe Healy


Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee - If Tennessee is going to be this year’s team to make a Cinderella run to Omaha it’s going to need a healthy return of Crochet, who broke his jaw two weeks ago when he was hit by a line drive. With a healthy return and the opportunity to showcase his talents on the big stage, I believe the country will witness someone who will be one of the top lefthanders in college baseball next year. - Dave Serrano

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