• Follow us on Twitter @buckeyeplanet and @bp_recruiting, like us on Facebook! Enjoy a post or article, recommend it to others! BP is only as strong as its community, and we only promote by word of mouth, so share away!
  • Consider registering! Fewer and higher quality ads, no emails you don't want, access to all the forums, download game torrents, private messages, polls, Sportsbook, etc. Even if you just want to lurk, there are a lot of good reasons to register!

2012-2013 Bowl Projections

Jump to latest Follow Reply
Sort by date Sort by votes
t_BuckeyeScott

t_BuckeyeScott

Hall of Fame
They are lots of articles we could link with various projections for bowls. I'm way to lazy to link them. Instead I'm going to do my own based on how I expect the year to end, NOT based on standings/rankings now. Oh, and I'm also to lazy to do anything but BCS/ B1G bowls.

Selection Process here. Selection Order after BCS Championship participants are replaced: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

BCS National Championship game: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Kansas State
- Obviously this is expecting both to win out
- I think Oregon is better
- Oregon has a higher chance to lose in it's remaining 3 games
- I expect Oregon will gain ground in the Computers to go in as #1
- Oregon remaining schedule: Stanford, Oregon St, UCLA/USC
- KSU remaining schedule: Baylor, Texas
- Who goes in as #1 is important because of the replacement selection in the contract bowl

Rose Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin
- This happens if Oregon wins out because nobody else in PAC12 will have less than 3 losses or likely to be ranked in top 14.
- It sucks for those of us who hate Notre Dame
- This is why I would prefer KSU to remain #1
- Yes, I expect Wisconsin to win rematch on neutral field vs Nebraska
- No, I don't think either Nebraska or Wisconsin can beat Notre Dame
- Did I mention this sucks?
- Yes. But I will say it again. It sucks.

Fiesta Bowl (Next 2 Selections): Oklahoma vs Texas A&M
- I might be reaching here with aTm over Florida
- There ranked close and this might be one of those nostalgic type match-ups
- But this also hedges against Florida losing to FSU.
- I expect OU to win out.

Sugar Bowl (SEC Champ vs At large): Alabama vs. Clemson
- Due to selection order, I don't see a likely scenario where Notre Dame ends up in this bowl.
- Slim Pickings
- 2nd teams from B1G, PAC won't be in top 14 thanks to SEC being so awesome
- Or because the bottom of the SEC sucks really bad. meaning that there's a glut of 1 and 2 loss SEC teams at the top of the BCS standings.

Orange Bowl (ACC Champ vs Big East): Florida State vs Louisville
- I'm projecting Louisville to beat Rutgers and win tiebreakers and stuff.
- No, I'm not going to look up Big East tiebreakers to prove it
- This may be the most watchable Orange Bowl in a while. Weird.
- Of course the Orange Bowl has sucked most years so that's not saying much

The situation doesn't look much better in the case KSU is #1:
-Fiesta selects Notre Dame
-Rose Bowl chooses amongst Florida, aTm, LSU, OU and is to me the single hardest scenario to pick. I think the order is 1 loss UF, aTm, LSU, OU
- If Rose Bowl selects SEC team then Fiesta chooses among OU and Clemson or Louisville to face unbeaten Notre Dame.
- OU already lost to ND
- Clemson is still Clemson
- 2nd hardest scenario to determine.

B1G bowls (This is Ugly)
Capitol One (B1G #2 vs SEC #2): Nebraska vs Florida
Outback Bowl (B1G #3 vs SEC#3/4): tsun vs Georgia
Gator Bowl (B1G #4 vs SEC#6): Michigan State vs Mississippi State
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (B1G #5 vs B12 #4) : Northwestern vs. Texas Tech
Meineke Car Care Bowl: (B1G #6 vs B12 #6) : Minnesota vs. West Virginia

Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Iowa, Illinois aren't/won't be bowl eligible.

I'm not going to bother project the bowls that B1G won't fill out:
Heart of Dallas Bowl
Little Ceasar's Pizza Bowl
 
BCS National Championship game: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Kansas State
- Obviously this is expecting both to win out
- I think Oregon is better
- Oregon has a higher chance to lose in it's remaining 3 games
- I expect Oregon will gain ground in the Computers to go in as #1
- Oregon remaining schedule: Stanford, Oregon St, UCLA/USC
- KSU remaining schedule: Baylor, Texas
- Who goes in as #1 is important because of the replacement selection in the contract bowl
Click to expand...

I hope and pray KSU stumbles before then.
 
Upvote 0
Re: Rose Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin
- This happens if Oregon wins out because nobody else in PAC12 will have less than 3 losses or likely to be ranked in top 14.
- It sucks for those of us who hate Notre Dame
- This is why I would prefer KSU to remain #1
- Yes, I expect Wisconsin to win rematch on neutral field vs Nebraska
- No, I don't think either Nebraska or Wisconsin can beat Notre Dame
- Did I mention this sucks?
- Yes. But I will say it again. It sucks.

If Wisky loses to Ped State next week and then beats Nebraska; the B1G sends a 5 loss unranked team to the Rose Bowl. If the Badgers play defense like they did today, I believe that they could actually beat Notre Dame.
:bonk:
 
Upvote 0
Let's try this again. If it goes anything like last week, I'm guessing most BPers will be happy.

Once again:
Selection Process here. Selection Order after BCS Championship participants are replaced: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

BCS Championship Game: #1 Notre Dame vs #2 Alabama
- If the ultimate goal was to have ND have no claim to a championship this may be the match up we wanted anyway
- I don't think either team loses
- With 2 games for Bama and only 1 for ND and with Barkley injured Bama probably has a better chance of losing
- Since Bama's Opponent is Auburn, maybe Bama only really has 1 game left too.
- I think Bama is the better team.
- Barring CHAOS the SEC will be represented in this game. I don't think it will happen but Georgia could take Bama's spot.

Rose Bowl: Stanford vs Wisconsin
- UCLA has little reason to play Stanford tough this week with the South locked up.
- Stanford has every reason to play tough this weekend anyway
- I think Stanford is better than UCLA anyway
- UCLA will represent if they win the rematch

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs Clemson
- Sugar Bowl could take Oregon here, but if UF and UO both have 1 loss they take the affiliated SEC team.
- Clemson in for the same reason as last week.
- I'm close to picking Oklahoma for this spot. They are now in the top 14. They have more brand than Clemson. But another loss.
- Also OU may be playing a rich man's WVU this week in OkSU. Did you see what WVU did?

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs Oregon
- This was the BCS Championship game last week.
- Last week I thought it was going to be the BCS championship game.

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Rutgers
- Same as Last week.
- Wait. it's not?
- Like the B1G I'm going to retroactively include their accomplishments to date.
- Go B1G?! Go Rutgers?!
- This bowl will be ACC champ vs Big East champ in all scenarios. No one want the Big East champ.

Things and Stuff

- I'm ignoring the Orange Bowl because there's nothing really going to change except who wins the conferences.
- The SEC will have 2 teams in the BCS. Forgone conclusion.
- Notre Dame with a loss against USC will still be in BCS.
- That leaves 2 at-large spots
- Big East won't be getting an at-large selection
- B1G won't be getting one unless the unthinkable happens. There is a possibility but speaking of it is blasphemy.

PAC 12 Things.

- Say UCLA wins this week. I'm not sure why they would but I'll indulge me and those of you (who probably don't exist) that want to know every scenario. Oregon probably beats UCLA in PAC 12 Championship and goes to Rose Bowl.
-- Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Wisconsin
-- Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs Clemson
-- Sugar Bowl: Florida vs Oklahoma
--Florida State vs Rutgers
- Say UCLA beats Oregon. Sub UCLA for Oregon, Oregon for Clemson, and Clemson for OU in the above scenario

Big 12 Stuff
- With KSU losing to Baylor the Big 12 is more open.
- KSU wins if it beats Texas
- If OU beats OkSU and TCU and KSU loses to Texas they win the Big 12

- KSU wins and OKsU beats OU, Oregon beats UCLA in PAC 12 champ, USCe beats Clemson Then 2 at large positions are going between 10-2 Clemson, 9-3 OU, Stanford, and OkSU which is ugly.

Say USC beats ND
- SEC BCS championship game with ND to Sugar would be my projection.
- Less likely in the case of Georgia winning SEC (rematch with Florida)
- SEC Champion vs Oregon sends ND to probable Fiesta Bowl, Rose if Oregon PAC 12 champ.

- This is obviously not an exhaustive list. But I think I've plugged enough variables that we could all tell what would happen in any scenario.

At Large selection order is ND, 1 Loss Florida, Oregon, 1 Loss Clemson, 2 Loss OU, 2 Loss Bama, 2 Loss aTm, 2 Loss LSU, 2 loss South Carolina, 2 Loss Georgia, 2 Loss Texas, 2 Loss KSU, 2 Loss Oregon, 2 Loss Clemson, 3 Loss OU

B1G bowls (This is Ugly)
Capitol One (B1G #2 vs SEC #2): Nebraska vs Texas A&M
Outback Bowl (B1G #3 vs SEC#3/4): tsun vs Georgia
Gator Bowl (B1G #4 vs SEC#6): Michigan State vs Mississippi State
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (B1G #5 vs B12 #4) : Northwestern vs. Texas Tech
Meineke Car Care Bowl: (B1G #6 vs B12 #6) : Minnesota vs. West Virginia
 
Upvote 0
It could potentially be a crazy BCS year with all 10 spots being automatic qualifiers and no at-large teams:

BCSNCG - Notre Dame and SEC Champ
Rose - Big Ten and PAC champs
Fiesta - Big12 Champ
Orange - ACC Champ

The Big East champ gets a bid so that leaves 3 spots. Florida and Oregon will almost assuredly be ranked 3-4 which gets them both AQ spots, and Kent State will pick up the final AQ if they win the MAC and move up a spot in the BCS standings. Assuming this happens the bowls will most likely be (with my conference winner guesses):

BCSNCG - Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Rose - Nebraska vs. Stanford
Fiesta - Kansas State vs. Oregon
Orange - Florida State vs. Kent State
Sugar - Florida vs. Rutgers
 
Upvote 0
So I did a much better job of picking winners last week keeping a lot of these projections the same.

Once again:
Selection Process here. Selection Order after BCS Championship participants are replaced: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

Noted information: 3 of the 4 at large bids are locked: Notre Dame, Florida for the Sugar Bowl replacement, and Oregon (not quite as locked as the first 2 but, there is no candidate in any possible scenario even close.)

BCS Championship game: Notre Dame vs Alabama
- Still projecting Bama to beat Georgia
- I hate that for those of us who don't want ND to win the BCS we have to cheer for Bama

Rose Bowl: Stanford vs Wisconsin
- Still projecting Wiscy to beat Nebraska
- Nothing that transpired in first game between SU and UCLA makes me believe that the result will be changed the 2nd time around

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs Oregon
- Raise your hand if you think Texas will beat KState

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs Rutgers
-Odd prediction I know but it's also because I predict this...

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Kent State
- Go fighting Hazells!!!!
- If KSU wins they will be ranked ahead of the Big East champion in the BCS and will very likely be in the Top 16 of the BCS as well ensuring KSU will be in a BCS bowl. The Orange Bowl picks last.
- Kent State will be rooting for the scenario above in regards to the Rose Bowl. If UCLA beats Stanford, Stanford doesn't drop enough for KSU to jump however UCLA is already #16.
- If Wisky beats Nebraska, Nebraska may also fall low enough for KSU to get in.
- KSU probably needs KSU to beat UT this week too. A UT win would probably vault UT ahead of KSU in the BCS


Things & Stuff
- If KSU loses to Northern Illinois NIU would have to jump 5 spots to get into top 16. The problem is idle TSUN as well as Boise State's probable win against Nevada.
- NIU needs the Rose Bowl to happen as outlined above.
- This week less than one/hundred of a percentage point separate NIU and Boise St.
- In the case of Boise vs NIU the humans favor Boise over NIU and the computers NIU over Boise.
- A win for NIU will help the NIU computers more than Boise win over Nevada but Boise isn't currently receiving any points from the computers anyway
- With such razor thin margin I think a NIU win vaults them over Boise.
- BCS standings difference between tsun and NIU is just .0158
- This time it's the polls favoring NIU and the computers still liking tsun
- tsun will get no love from adding a win as they are idle
- tsun will get pc love from Alabama beating Georgia - but not much Alabama is already high in the PCs
- Wiscy beating Nebraska slightly negatively impacts tsun's position
- I will also call this razor thin margin to NIU
- That all makes NIU the next most likely at-large selection for the Orange Bowl
- Finally an OU win vs. TCU would make them next
- An OU loss would put Clemson in the BCS next
- OU/Clemson as an at-large would go to the Sugar bumping Rutgers/Louisville to Orange

BIG Bowls (of crap)
B1G bowls (This is Ugly)
Capitol One (B1G #2 vs SEC #2): Nebraska vs Texas A&M
Outback Bowl (B1G #3 vs SEC#3/4): tsun vs Georgia
Gator Bowl (B1G #4 vs SEC#6): Northwestern vs Mississippi State
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (B1G #5 vs B12 #4) : Michigan State vs. Oklahoma State
Meineke Car Care Bowl: (B1G #6 vs B12 #6) : Minnesota vs. Texas Tech
Heart Of Dallas (B1G #7 vs B12 #8): Purdue vs Baylor

-tsun is within one win of Nothwestern and can then be selected over Northwestern but not Nebraska
 
Upvote 0
t_BuckeyeScott;2266561; said:

BIG Bowls (of crap)
B1G bowls (This is Ugly)
Capitol One (B1G #2 vs SEC #2): Nebraska vs Texas A&M
Outback Bowl (B1G #3 vs SEC#3/4): tsun vs Georgia
Gator Bowl (B1G #4 vs SEC#6): Northwestern vs Mississippi State
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (B1G #5 vs B12 #4) : Michigan State vs. Oklahoma State
Meineke Car Care Bowl: (B1G #6 vs B12 #6) : Minnesota vs. Texas Tech
Heart Of Dallas (B1G #7 vs B12 #8): Purdue vs Baylor

-tsun is within one win of Nothwestern and can then be selected over Northwestern but not Nebraska
Click to expand...

if these are correct, then LSU is probably heading to Cotton Bowl.
not terrible, but yeah fuck it, it's terrible. I wanted the Sugar.

and even then we may get effed out of Cotton too in favor of USCe since Clemson will probably be the ACC rep there. and well they played each other in their last game before the bowl.
 
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top