2011 Tour de France - who wins?

[BB73]

The last two days have been somewhat interesting, even without huge mountains. Yesterday Contador attacked on the last climb, and Evans and Sammie Sanchez were able to stay with him. Voeckler (still in yellow) and both Schlecks lost 18 seconds to Contador and 21 seconds to Evans.

Today Contador and Sanchez were following Voeckler ( a good descender) down on the final descent into the finish. Voeckler took too much speed into a tight corner, and had to jam on the brakes and take his feet off the pedals to avoid falling. Contador and Sanchez rolled right by him and took off to maintain a gap. Evans and the Schlecks were a little behind. Contador and Sanchez aren't teammates, but since they're both from Spain they're happy to work together against guys that are ahead of them in the overall standings (GC).

With only a few kilometers left, Voeckler was still taking some risks on the descent in an attempt to catch the two Spaniards. He again went too fast into a tight corner, and he went right off the road and through an open gate into a small parking lot. He had to stop and turn around to come out through the same gate, since it was the only opening for that lot. The other guys rolled right by, and he was left by himself for most of the last 5K. Cadel Evans and the Schlecks hustled and managed to catch Contador and Sanchez just a few seconds before the finish line, so they all got the same time, which was 27 seconds ahead of Voeckler.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLQqOGl5sp0"]‪Tour de France2011 Stage17: Edvald Boasson Hagen 2nd wins.‬‏ - YouTube[/ame]

Conventional wisdom is that Voeckler can't hold the yellow jersey through the monster climbs of the next two days, but he's already had it much longer than almost anybody would have expected.

Current GC Standings:

min/sec

00:00 Thomas Voeckler
01:18 Cadel Evans
01:22 Frank Schleck
02:36 Andy Schleck
02:59 Sammie Sanchez
03:15 Alberto Contador

Tomorrow's stage: 3 beyond category climbs, with the highest-ever end to a stage in the Tour.

Friday's:

After those two huge tests, Saturday is the individual TT, the only one on the schedule this year. Evans and Contador have been very good in ITTs in the past, and the Schlecks not as good, so the Schlecks need to get hige chunks of time over the next two days if they want to both be on the podium.

 

[Thump]

The last two days have been somewhat interesting, even without huge mountains. Yesterday Contador attacked on the last climb, and Evans and Sammie Sanchez were able to stay with him. Voeckler (still in yellow) and both Schlecks lost 18 seconds to Contador and 21 seconds to Evans.

Today Contador and Sanchez were following Voeckler ( a good descender) down on the final descent into the finish. Voeckler took too much speed into a tight corner, and had to jam on the brakes and take his feet off the pedals to avoid falling. Contador and Sanchez rolled right by him and took off to maintain a gap. Evans and the Schlecks were a little behind. Contador and Sanchez aren't teammates, but since they're both from Spain they're happy to work together against guys that are ahead of them in the overall standings (GC).

With only a few kilometers left, Voeckler was still taking some risks on the descent in an attempt to catch the two Spaniards. He again went too fast into a tight corner, and he went right off the road and through an open gate into a small parking lot. He had to stop and turn around to come out through the same gate, since it was the only opening for that lot. The other guys rolled right by, and he was left by himself for most of the last 5K. Cadel Evans and the Schlecks hustled and managed to catch Contador and Sanchez just a few seconds before the finish line, so they all got the same time, which was 27 seconds ahead of Voeckler.

‪Tour de France2011 Stage17: Edvald Boasson Hagen 2nd wins.‬‏ - YouTube

Conventional wisdom is that Voeckler can't hold the yellow jersey through the monster climbs of the next two days, but he's already had it much longer than almost anybody would have expected.

Current GC Standings:

min/sec

00:00 Thomas Voeckler
01:18 Cadel Evans
01:22 Frank Schleck
02:36 Andy Schleck
02:59 Sammie Sanchez
03:15 Alberto Contador

Tomorrow's stage: 3 beyond category climbs, with the highest-ever end to a stage in the Tour.

Friday's:

After those two huge tests, Saturday is he individual TT, the only one on the schedule this year. Evans and Contador have been very good in ITTs in the past, and the Schlecks not as good, so the Schlecks need to get hige chunks of time over the next two days if they want to both be on the podium.

Been disappointed in Andy Schleck thus far.

 

[BB73]

Been disappointed in Andy Schleck thus far.

The top GC guys are all having trouble breaking away from each other this year. On almost all of the climbs, the top-5 to top-10 guys have ended up together in a pack, and whenever anybody goes, the rest of them scramble and get on the back wheel. After trying that a couple of times, they seem to figure it's not worth the energy to try to make a move.

With only a couple of days left, both finishing after huge climbs, the Schlecks and Contador know they have to attack and get a couple of minutes out of Evans if they want to beat him.

Andy had a bad day yesterday. Maybe tomorrow the tag-team attacks of Frank and Andy can shred the other top-5 guys on the Col du Galibier. It will also be interesting to see how long it takes Voeckler to crack.

 

[Thump]

The top GC guys are all having trouble breaking away from each other this year. On almost all of the climbs, the top-5 to top-10 guys have ended up together in a pack, and whenever anybody goes, the rest of them scramble and get on the back wheel. After trying that a couple of times, they seem to figure it's not worth the energy to try to make a move.

With only a couple of days left, both finishing after huge climbs, the Schlecks and Contador know they have to attack and get a couple of minutes out of Evans if they want to beat him.

Andy had a bad day yesterday. Maybe tomorrow the tag-team attacks of Frank and Andy can shred the other top-5 guys on the Col du Galibier. It will also be interesting to see how long it takes Voeckler to crack.

It's been fun to watch Cavendish nail the sprints with tactical riding with his High Road teammates.

Also funny hearing Ligget talk about his car getting blown up years back at one of the Tour stops.

 

[Thump]

Andy Schleck making his move today.

We'll see if he can maintain his lead going up the Galibier.

 

[buckeyesin07]

I've never been much of a fan of Voeckler.

 

[BB73]

I think these will be the time gaps after today.

00:00 Voeckler
00:15 Andy Schleck
01:08 Frank Schleck
01:12 Cadel Evans
...
04:44 Contador

The last two days will be very interesting. Evans is the best TT rider among those guys, and could gain a minute on Saturday.

But can Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans bounce back tomorrow to climb the Col du Galibier and Alpe D'Huez? They both did a ton of work today. Look for Frank Schleck to make a move on Alpe D'Huez tomorrow - he just followed all day long today, saving energy.

 

[BB73]

Very interesting stage today.

Contador attacked at the start of the first climb. Andy S. went with him, and then they were joined by Evans and Voeckler. For a while they were going up the hill in a small group with almost nobody else in it, with the Col du Galibier and Alpe d'Huez still up the road.

Contador picked up the pace even more, and Andy S. went with him. Cadel and Voeckler didn't stay with them, and then Cadel had a mechanical problem where he had to stop twice. Since the other guys had attacked prior to the problem, there's no gentlemen's agreement about waiting for him, so he had to try to catch up without them slowing down for him. For a while Voeckler was about 30 seconds behind, riding on his own or with 1 other rider, and Cadel was about a minute back, and the peloton was about 90 seconds behind.

Those guys desperately wanted to catch the other two before starting the climb of the Galibier, but the first descent was a short one of only a few km. Cadel ended up being caught by the peloton (which still had Frank S.) in it, and Voeckler tried to catch the leaders on his own. Shortly before the top of the Galibier, Voeckler finally slowed down and joined up with Cadel and the peloton, but he'd been climbing on his own for several miles.

At the top of the Galibier, Contador, Andy S. and two other guys had a little under a minute on the peloton. During the long descent, everybody that matters for the yellow jersey came back together. At the start of Alpe d'Huez, Contador attacked again, with rapid acceleration that the others didn't try to match. The Schlecks were about 4 minutes ahead of Contador in the GC standings, so they didn't care if he gained a minute or a minute and a half on them. Cadel Evans wasn't worried about Contador at all, since Evans can match Contador in the time trial. So Cadel was just trying to stay even with the Schlecks, since he thinks he can win the race by taking a full minute out of Andy in Saturday's individual TT.

Sammie Sanchez then broke away from the peloton, and when he caught the young Frenchman Rolland, Rolland hooked on and followed Sanchez up to where Contador was with about 2 km left. Around then, Andy Schleck got next to Cadel and asked him if we would take some time at the front - but Cadel was disinclined to acquiesce to his request.

Rolland then got away from the two Spaniards to give the French their first stage winner of this year's tour, so Contador had to be disappointed that Sanchez had bridged the gap, since Rolland probably wouldn't have been able to catch Contador on his own.

Cadel and both Schlecks finished in a small group less than a minute behind the leader, with all 3 of them getting the same time. So the TT will decide this year's winner. Cadel needs to make up more than 57 seconds on Andy, who now wears yellow after Voeckler lost 2:25 to the Schlecks today.

Here are the overall standings. The top 3 guys should end up on the podium, but the TT tomorrow could result in either Andy Schleck or Cadel Evans as the overall winner. Since I bet on both of those guys, I can live with either result.

mm:ss

00:00 Andy Schleck
00:53 Frank Schleck
00:57 Cadel Evans
02:10 Thomas Voeckler
03:31 Damiano Cunego
03:55 Alberto Contador

 

[Taosman]

Great racing! This has been, outside of the crashes, a enthralling Tour to watch! And the HD coverage still amazes me. Most people have no idea of the suffering that takes place making a mountain climb.Trying to not red zone your effort is very hard. Once you get out of breath it's very hard to keep pedaling. And these guys are not using gearing designed to help you.
Amazing!

 

[Thump]

Liggett and Sherwin's commentary is some of the best sports commentary in all of sports!

 

[Oh8ch]

I've never been much of a fan of Voeckler.

Impossible for me not to be a fan given the effort he put out to stay in yellow.

Liggett and Sherwin's commentary is some of the best sports commentary in all of sports!

I tuned into the Tour for the first time to watch Lance. Liggett and Sherwin hooked me. Once the coverage moved to HD I was captivated by the countryside, mountains, chateaus, road-side crazies, etc.

Along the way I began to appreciate all of the races within the race and became a fan or non-fan of individuals within the tour.

I have learned to respect all of the riders not only for their ability to endure the pain of the ride itself, but to deal with stitches, concussions and broken bones not when they happen - but only AFTER completing the day's ride. (I don't care what drugs they are taking, these are special athletes.)

The Tour is now my favorite sporting event of the summer and I record every minute (although I do wear out my ffwd button).


Would love to see Evans take it in the time trial tomorrow - but I don't expect it.

 

[Taosman]

Evans does it! Andy Schleck second and Frank Schleck third.
Evans had a strong team which helped him win.

 

[BB73]

Just before noon tomorrow, there's going to be the largest payout in vBet history.

33-1 odds for a bet of v$2000000000 equals = v$66 Billion dollars.

Just when Piney thought he was breathing down my vNeck.

 

[gracelhink]

Just before noon tomorrow, there's going to be the largest payout in vBet history.

33-1 odds for a bet of v$2000000000 equals = v$66 Billion dollars.

Just when Piney thought he was breathing down my vNeck.

Wow!!!!
Congrats! that is a major payday!
And I was excited about a couple of v-$mill
Maybe this major win could inspire a new v-bet,
Guess the estimated date of v-trillionaire status,
The month and year when a new moderator username appears on the Planet's horizon. . .
TB 73,
aka
Trillionaire Bill born in 73 A.D.