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2011 Sugar Bowl Arkansas Game Preview

Buckeyeskickbuttocks

Z --> Z^2 + c
Staff member


2011 Sugar Bowl Arkansas Razorbacks Game Preview
written by: BB73, Buckeyeskickbuttocks, Bucklion, Bucky Katt, DaddyBigBucks, JCOSU86, jwinslow, and Nicknam4


Preface
Next Tuesday the Buckeyes will make their 9th BCS Bowl appearance, more than any other team in the country.
Most BCS bowl appearances, including 2011 BCS bowls:

9 - Ohio State
8 - Oklahoma
7 - USC
6 - Florida
6 - Florida State
5 - Virginia Tech
4 - LSU
4 - Miami
4 - TSUN
4 - Texas
3 - Alabama
3 - Georgia
3 - Notre Dame
3 - Oregon
3 - Wisconsin

And despite the well-publicized streak of losses in tOSU's recent BCS Title Games, only 1 team has won more BCS Bowls than the Buckeyes.

Most BCS bowl wins, through last season:
6 - USC (5, plus the vacated 2005 Orange Bowl)
5 - Ohio State
5 - Florida
4 - LSU
3 - Miami
3 - Texas
2 - Oklahoma
2 - Georgia
2 - Utah
2 - West Virginia
2 - Wisconsin
2 - Boise State

The Buckeyes have never faced Arkansas, who are playing in their first BCS Bowl since the system was implemented for the 1998 season.

In the last 100 years, Arkansas had their only perfect season in 1964, when a team with Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson (later reunited with the Dallas Cowboys) completed an 11-0 season with a 10-7 win over Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl. At the time, the major polls (AP and UPI) didn't vote after the bowl games, so Alabama won those titles although they lost in the Sugar Bowl to Texas, a team that Arkansas had beaten. Due to that, organizations such as the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) awarded Arkansas a legitimate national crown that year.

The most successful head coaches for Arkansas include Frank Broyles, who went 144-58-5 (.708) between 1958-76; he won the MNC in 1964 and has had the College Football Assistant Coach of the Year Award presented in his name since 1996 (tOSU's Jim Heacock won that honor in 2007).

Lou Holtz led the Razorbacks from 1977-83, and had a record of 60-21-2 (.735). His best season in Fayetteville was his first year, an 11-1 campaign with only a 13-9 loss to Texas, the Hogs finished with a 31-6 upset of #2 Oklahoma, which was coached by Arkansas alum Barry Switzer. Holtz had suspended star RB Ben Cowins and his backup, as well as leading receiver Donny Bobo, but the team dominated the Sooners in the Orange Bowl, preventing them from claiming the national title since #1 Texas lost in the Cotton Bowl. Late in that game, Houston Nutt played QB for the Hogs.

Nutt later compiled a 75-48 (.610) mark as the head coach of the Razorbacks from 1998-2007, and was part of a whimsical thread on BP when shuffling QBs named Casey Dick and Richard Johnson. Before Nutt, Ken Hatfield went 55-17-1 (.760) from 1984-89; and Danny Ford (whose first game ever as a college head coach, the '78 Gator Bowl for Clemson, was the last one coached by Woody Hayes), went 26-30-1 (.465) for the Hogs from 1993-97.

Another connection between tOSU and Arkansas coaches goes way back to Francis A. "Close the Gates of Mercy" Schmidt, who had a 41-21-3 (.654) record for the Hogs from 1922-28. He then spent 5 years at TCU before going to Ohio State in 1934, and initiating the tradition of Gold Pants for beating TSUN, since they put their pants on "one leg at a time".

The Hogs are currently led by Bobby Petrino, who has gone 23-14 (.622) since 2008. Although he earned something of a reputation as a 'job-switcher' when he left Louisville for the Atlanta Falcons in 2007, and then left the Falcons with 3 games remaining in the season; his recent contract extension that includes an $18 million buyout makes it appear that for quite some time he will be the head Hog-caller. [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7x3x6QHlrA"]Hog-caller[/ame]

Well-known Razorback footballers include NFL Hall-of-Famer Dan Hampton (DL for the '85 Bears, although he declined to participate in the Super Bowl Shuffle video), NFL Hall-of-Fame WR Lance Alworth (an RB at Arkansas), T Loyd Phillips, WR Chuck Dicus, DE Billy Ray Smith, Jr., LB Wayne Harris, C Jonathan Luigs, RB Darren McFadden, OG Leotis Harris, S Ken Hamlin, and OT Shawn Andrews.

Arkansas has a 12-22-3 record in bowl games, including an 0-3 mark against current members of the Big Ten. They have won 3 Cotton Bowls, the '78 Orange Bowl against Oklahoma, and are 1-4 in the Sugar Bowl, with that victory coming against Georgia on 1-1-69, the same day that tOSU won the National Title in the Rose Bowl over O.J. Simpson's USC Trojans.

Later in 1969, the Hogs played in one of the Games of the Century, a rough 15-14 loss to Texas, who was declared the National Champion by President Richard Nixon after the game. The game rose to full heights only after tOSU's painful 24-12 upset to TSUN 2 weeks earlier, which prevented tOSU from repeating as National Champs (tOSU was #1 and would not have played in a bowl game due to Big Ten rules at the time). Nixon later delivered the eulogy at the funeral of Woody Hayes.

The Hogs have finished in the final Top-10 a total of 13 times, most recently the 1982 squad led by Lou Holtz. In recent years, some Arkansas contests have had an indirect impact on tOSU's season. In 2006, with OC Gus Malzahn (2010 Broyles Award at Auburn) running Darren McFadden as a wildcat QB, Arkansas lost the SEC Championship Game to Florida, who rose to BCS #2 and then faced tOSU in Glendale. McFadden finished second to Troy Smith in the Heisman voting that year.

In 2007, Arkansas and McFadden (who finished second to Tebow in the '07 Heisman) handed LSU their second loss at the end of the regular season, but a series of losses among highly ranked teams allowed LSU to make it BCS #2 and face tOSU in the BCS Championship Game. That contest was the last time that tOSU played in the Superdome, but it was not the Sugar Bowl that year, since the 5th BCS Game had been added the year before.

In actual Sugar Bowls the Buckeyes are 1-2, with a win after the 1998 season over Texas A&M, a loss to Florida State the year before, and a loss after the 1977 season when Woody Hayes faced off against Bear Bryant's Alabama team, which was the first of the well-publicized 9 straight bowl losses to SEC teams. tOSU's overall record against teams now in the SEC is 7-11-2.

Arkansas is 1-5 against current members of the Big Ten, which doesn't include a 13-13 tie against the University of Chicago (and Amos Alonzo Stagg) in 1931.
Date and Time
Date: Tuesday, January 4th, 2011
Time: 8:30 ET Kickoff
Location: Louisiana Superdome (New Orleans)
Constructed: 1975
Seating Capacity: 72,968
Playing Surface: Sportexe Monentum Turf (since 2006 post-Katrina repairs)
Events: Eating and drinking in the French Quarter

Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ESPN: Brad Nessler (Play-by-play), Todd Blackledge (Analysis), and Holly Rowe (Sideline). It's also on ESPN3.com.

Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (TheFan 97.1 FM in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline).

The game can also be heard on ESPN Radio and Sirius satellite radio 125 and XM 102 with Sean McDonough and Matt Millen in the booth and Quint Kessenich on the sidelines.
2010 Arkansas Razorbacks Offensive Preview
Bobby Petrino brings his Razorbacks into the Sugar Bowl with one of the nation's most impressive offenses, led by former Oklahoma QB and Jacksonville assistant Garrick McGee. Rarely does one see the kind of sweeping overhaul between coaching staffs result in the kind of immediate success Petrino has enjoyed. Under former coach Houston Nutt, the Razorbacks ranked 12, 4th, and 4th nationally in rushing from 2005-07, with Darren McFadden finishing 2nd in the Heisman Trophy balloting twice. The Razorbacks were entirely one-dimensional, however, as over those same 3 seasons they ranked 108th, 108th, and 112th in passing, and Nutt was let go midway through an 8-5 2007 season. Enter Petrino, who immediately flipped the rankings. In 2008 the Razorbacks ranked 23rd in passing but 97th in rushing, and finished 5-7. The past 2 seasons behind Ryan Mallett, the Hogs have ranked in the top 10 nationally in passing, and as their running game has improved so too has their record. In 2009 their running game ranked 81st and they went 8-5. This year the running game is ranked 65th and they went 10-2, demonstrating how important offensive balance can be. Their commitment to the running game in the second half of the season sparked a run of victories than landed them in the Sugar Bowl, and it is expected that the battle in the trenches will also decide the bowl game.

The Razorbacks have piled up the yards all season, to the tune of 489.3 yards a game, ranking 10th nationally. They rank 4th in the country in passing yardage (349.2 YPG) and a respectable 65th in rushing (150.8 YPG). Their scoring average of 37.3 PPG is 16th in the country. Arkansas moves the chains quite a bit (22.33 first downs/game, 25th nationally) and they are fairly efficient on 3rd down (42.28%, 47th nationally). Their turnover margin is decent (+0.17), with 9 fumbles lost and 14 INTs. They allow 2 sacks per game on average, which is not a terrible number given the number of passes their attempt. The Razorbacks rank 4th in pass efficiency and seem to come up with big pass plays at crucial times. All in all, this will be a very challenging bowl matchup for the Buckeye defense, and will be a game every bit as difficult as last season's Rose Bowl.
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QB #15 Ryan Mallett (6-6, 238, JR, Texas HS, Texarkana, AR)

Another chapter in The Legend of Ryan Mallett will be written at the Sugar Bowl. It is, of course, not the first time he has seen Ohio State, as he played sparingly at Michigan in 2007 before transferring and blossoming in the Razorback uniform. Mallett virtually destroyed every team he played against on the way to being 2nd team All-SEC in 2010, racking up 300+ yards passing 9 times and crossing 400 yards twice. He was also injured in the Auburn game, which really cost Arkansas in that one. He is a big kid with a howitzer for an arm who can make every throw and shows an impressive amount of accuracy on shorter routes. He is zero threat to run, but he can occasionally create some extra space in the pocked on a rollout and he is good on QB sneaks because of his size. He has also significantly increased his completion % from last season and took a moderate number of sacks (21) given how much he throws the football. All in all, he is clearly one of the best QBs in the country (3rd nationally in efficiency) and he leads one of the most explosive offenses anywhere.

He opened the season with high expectations, and delivered 310 yards and 3 TDs and then 400 yards and 3 TDs in back-to-back pastings of Tennessee Tech and Louisiana Monroe. He threw for 380 yards and 3 TDs in their dramatic win at Georgia and then threw for 357 yards with a TD and a rushing score against Alabama, though he was picked off 3 times and Alabama got the better of him in the second half as Arkansas suffered their first loss. He bounced back by trouncing Texas A&M for 310 yards and 3 TDs before suffering a concussion during the Auburn game after throwing for 96 yards and a score. He had a moderate game the following week against Mississippi (196 yards, TD, INT) before drubbing Vanderbilt for 409 yards and 3 TDs the following week. He then led victories in the final month over South Carolina (303 yards, TD), UTEP (215 yards, 5 TDs), Mississippi State (315 yards, 3 TDs) and LSU (320 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) to get them to the Sugar Bowl at 10-2 and ahead of Alabama in the SEC West.

Backing up Mallett is sophomore Tyler Wilson (#8). He saw significant action in one game this year, against Auburn after Mallett was injured. He acquitted himself very well, throwing for 332 yards and 4 TDs to go with 2 INTs, so it is clear he is capable of running the offense. Like Mallett, he has good size (6-3, 215) and a strong arm.

QB Rating: A

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State QBs

Mallett: 242/364 (66.5%), 3592 yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs, 170.5 rating; 40/-46, 4 TDs

Pryor: 196/298 (65.8%), 2551 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 158.0 rating; 120/639, 4 TDs

Well, isn't this what will have casual college football fans and people who don't like either team tuning in? This is a chance to watch two of the nation's marquee quarterbacks with heavily contrasting styles face off. Mallett has improved his accuracy, particularly on the shorter throws, and he now ranks amongst the nation's best in efficiency. He has a bevy of targets to throw to and he keeps virtually all of them involved every game, and he throws a lethal deep ball. Pryor is still not the polished passer Mallett is, but he is a proven winner who brings the added dimension of the running game on any play at any time. He has also improved his passing and he has established great chemistry with his top wideout Sanzenbacher. He also throws a good deep ball, and what he lacks in the shorter throws he makes up for with the threat to run. This one will be settled on the field, but both bring elite skills to the table in different ways, so it is too close to name a significant edge here.

Edge: Even

ark2_rb.jpg


TB #7 Knile Davis (6-0, 220, SO, Fort Bend Marshall HS, Missouri City, TX)
TB #29 Broderick Green (6-2, 248, JR, Pulaski Academy, Little Rock, AR)
TB #20 Ronnie Wingo Jr. (6-3, 227, SO, St. Louis University HS, St. Louis, MO)

Quick, name the first team All-SEC running backs (AP) for 2010. With a returning Heisman winner and so many dynamic players in the conference, it is an amazing story that Knile Davis ascended to first team status by amassing nearly 1200 yards rushing, because entering the season he was a little-used role player, who had only 163 yards on 33 carries (5th on the team) last season. He supplanted last year's leading rusher Broderick Green (#29; 442 yards in 2009) and nearly tripled his output from last season. And that is after starting the season as a platoon player, getting just 20 carries in the first 4 games total. He has good size and good speed, and he is also a receiving threat out of the backfield. After the loss to Alabama, his workload increased, starting with the game at Texas A&M, where he had 10 carries for 82 yards. His breakout game came 2 weeks later against Ole Miss, whom he torched for 176 yards and 3 TDs on 22 carries. After hitting Vanderbilt with 82 yards and 2 scores, he closed the season in a fury with 4 straight 100 yard games, wins over South Carolina (22 carries, 110 yards, 3 TDs), UTEP (11 carries, 182 yards, TD), Mississippi State (30 carries, 187 yards, 2 TDs) and LSU (30 carries, 152 yards, TD). In the second half of the season, he had 134 carries, 889 yards, 12 TDs, and chipped in 9 receptions for 81 more yards and another score, giving him almost 1000 yards from scrimmage and 13 scores in just 6 games. He is a red hot player right now, and the Buckeye defense will have to make it a priority to shut down the Razorback run game to get pressure on the QB in some 3rd and long situations.

Green (#29) is still the primary backup. He got the most work (68 carries) in the first half of the season, but saw his production drop off significantly in the second half (36 carries) as Davis heated up. He is a strong and powerful runner (6-2, 248) who is good in short yardage situations and still has a good burst. Also contributing consistently is sophomore hybrid Ronnie Wingo Jr. (#20). His primary threat is pass catching, with 27 receptions for 274 yards and 4 TDs to go with his 239 yards on the ground. He and Green played very sparingly in the final 2 games as Davis handled the entire workload himself with 30 carries in each game. As the Buckeyes have a stout defense, it would not be surprising to see all 3 contribute significantly Saturday, to give the Buckeyes some different looks and too keep them off balance. All 3 players are capable and bring something to the table, and collectively they make a formidable group.

When they go to a blocking back, senior Van Stumon (#44, 6-1, 266) is a bulldozer.

RB Rating: A-

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State RBs

Davis: 178/1183 yards, 13 TDs, 6.6 YPC; 16 rec/128 yards, 1 TD, 8.0 YPR
Green: 104/365 yards, 3 TDs, 3.5 YPC; 6 rec/42 yards, 0 TDs, 7.0 YPR
Wingo Jr.: 40/239 yards, 1 TD, 6.0 YPC; 27 rec/274 yards, 4 TDs, 10.1 YPR

Herron: 192/1068 yards, 15 TDs, 5.6 YPC; 18 rec/180 yards, 0 TDs, 10.0 YPR
Saine: 66/312 yards, 2 TDs, 4.7 YPC; 22 rec/195 yards, 5 TDs, 8.9 YPR

Davis is one of the nicer stories in college football this year, and undoubtedly Arkansas would not be playing in this game had he not caught fire when and how he did. His ascent to first team all-conference should bring hope to all players looking for their big break. Likewise, Dan Herron took the reigns of the vaunted Buckeye tailback position and made it his own, supplanting the platoon situation with Saine to have a big second half and gain over 1000 yards on the season. Herron was named first team All-Big Ten by the coaches (but inexplicably left off of the media teams) over more highly touted players like John Clay and Evan Royster. Both players are the glue to the offense, consistently controlling the ball and opening opportunities in the passing game. Depth is good for both teams, as Saine fills in the Green/Wingo Jr. role of contributing carries and receptions, and he can shoulder the load if necessary. The Buckeyes also have a bevy of talented backs waiting in the wings. Both teams are very strong here.

Edge: Even

ark3_wr.jpg


WR #4 Jarius Wright (5-10, 180, JR, Warren HS, Warren, AR)
WR #11 Cobi Hamilton (6-3, 209, SO, Texas HS, Texarkana, AR)
WR #3 Joe Adams (5-11, 190, JR, Central Arkansas Christian HS, Little Rock, AR)

The Razorback roll a ton of talented playmakers out onto the field, and individual accolades are probably cannibalized by each others' production. The best of the lot was arguably junior Greg Childs (#85), who led the team last year and torched teams repeatedly the first 8 games (46 receptions, 659 yards, 6 TDs) before suffering an unfortunate season-ending knee injury. He had huge games against Louisiana-Monroe (12 receptions, 146 yards, 2 TDs) and Auburn (9 receptions, 164 yards, 2 TDs) and his loss would devastate many teams. The Razorbacks just ran Hamilton out to replace him and kept right on firing. Wright is a burner who ended the season as the team leader in yards. He cracked the 100 yard mark twice, against Alabama (6 receptions, 131 yards) and Mississippi State (2 receptions, 105 yards, TD). He was a solid contributor in every game but the Georgia game, where he had no catches. Adams had a huge start to the year, racing up two 100 yard performances in the first 3 games, against Tennessee Tech in the opener (6 receptions, 138 yards, 2 scores) and Georgia (6 receptions, 130 yards). He had a lean middle portion of the season before bouncing back the final 2 games, totaling 7 receptions for 105 yards and a TD against Mississippi State and LSU. Hamilton had a good game against Texas A&M (5 receptions, 98 yards, TD) before emerging late after the injury to Childs, catching 7 passes for 11 yards and a TD against South Carolina when he cracked the starting lineup and finishing the season with 3 receptions for 164 yards and 2 TDs against LSU. He is a bigger target with great speed who can be a nightmare both downfield and in the red zone. Collectively this is still a very dangerous unit.

Depth beyond the first tier is a concern. Second on the depth chart are a trio of freshmen, Julian Horton (#2), Javontee Herndon (#19) and Lance Ray (#82). They have combined for just 7 receptions on the season, so the Razorbacks will severely miss any of the 3 wideouts they have if they were to lose one to injury. These players are potential future stars, but right now they are still learning the offense.

WR Rating: B+

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State WRs

Wright: 38 catches, 718 yards, 4 TDs, 18.9 YPR
Adams: 41 catches, 693 yards, 5 TDs, 16.9 YPR
Hamilton: 31 catches, 609 yards, 6 TDs, 19.6 YPR

Sanzenbacher: 52 catches, 889 yards, 10 TDs, 17.1 YPR
Posey: 50 catches, 778 yards, 6 TDs, 15.6 YPR
Brown: 7 catches, 92 yards, 1 TD, 13.1 YPR

With Childs, this would be one of the best corps in the country. As it is, they still have 3 quality targets that can go deep or have a big game at any time. The Buckeyes also have 2 good playmakers, though Posey drops his share of passes. Sanzenbacher has emerged as a true #1 receiver this year, and he will pose significant problems for the Razorback secondary. Depth is a serious concern for both teams, though the Razorbacks are 3 deep, while the Buckeyes have only 2 primary targets. The Razorbacks have the better passing game and have a slight edge here.


Edge: Arkansas

ark4_te.jpg


TE #45 D.J. Williams (6-2, 251, SR, Central Arkansas Christian HS, Little Rock, AR)

Williams is a fixture of this program and one of its best and most visible players. He was unanimous 1st team All-SEC, the first Mackey Award winner in Arkansas history and he won the 2010 Disney Spirit Award as college football's most inspirational figure. He has been a mainstay in the passing game for 3 years, and actually had his best statistical season as a sophomore, when he had 58 receptions for 699 yards and 3 TDs. This season he has been a weapon over the middle while working hard on his blocking, which led him to be a Mackey finalist this year after being a semi-finalist the past 2 seasons. He has been a consistent contributor throughout the season, never cracking the 100 yard mark but catching at least 3 passes in 11/12 games. He recorded all 4 of his TDs in the last 6 contests.

Backing him up is senior Ben Cleveland (#86). He has good size (6-4, 256) and is a decent blocker. He also has 4 receptions for 24 yards and a score. The future of the position belongs to sophomore Chris Gragg (#80), a 6-3, 236 pound hybrid who had 7 receptions for 155 yards and 2 TDs this season in limited duty. Don't be surprised if he sees the field at the Sugar Bowl, as Arkansas may look to start the transition.

TE Rating: A

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State TEs

Williams: 49 catches, 589 yards, 4 TDs, 12.0 YPR

Stoneburner: 18 catches, 183 yards, 2 TDs, 10.2 YPR

Williams is a great player and by all accounts a great person. He has a likely future in the NFL and has become a much better blocker this year. The Buckeyes have underrated TEs of their own, but they are not as involved nor quite as dynamic as the formidable Williams. It's hard to argue against the nation's best TE.

Edge: Arkansas

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LT #65 DeMarcus Love (6-5, 315, SR, Carter HS, Lancaster, TX)
LG #71 Wade Grayson (6-4, 302, SR, Harrison HS, Harrison, AR)
C #64 Travis Swanson (6-5, 305, FR, Kingwood HS, Kingwood, TX)
RG #67 Alvin Bailey (6-5, 323, FR, Broken Arrow HS, Broken Arrow, OK)
RT #73 Ray Dominguez (6-4, 329, JR, Bainbridge HS, Bainbridge, GA)

The Razorbacks have a huge, physical line and have a nice combination of youth and experience. They have also been blessed to have all 5 linemen able to start all 12 games. The best of the lot is Love, a road grader who was first team all conference. He has 36 starts in his career and he is an anchor on the left side, where he protects Mallett and also opens holes for the running game. Grayson is also a solid veteran on the left side, with 35 career starts and plenty of experience against quality defenses. At RT, Dominguez is a mammoth 3rd year starter (32 starts) who is adept at both pass and run blocking. He has played both left and right tackle so he is also very versatile. Swanson and Bailey are starting right out of the gate and have done a tremendous job. Swanson is an agile athlete for a big man, and he supplanted previous starter Seth Oxner (#60) and started all 12 games at center. Bailey is another monster with formidable strength that appears to be a star of the future. Collectively the line deserves a great deal of credit not only for keeping Mallett vertical with all of his pass attempts but especially for the improvement in the running game, which they have committed to more and is perhaps the major key to their increased success on offense this season.

Behind these players, there is some experience. Oxner, a junior, started at center last season. Fellow junior Grant Freeman (#79) backs up both tackle positions and started a couple of games last season. At guard, junior Grant Cook (#72) started 3 games last season and sees his share of playing time. Senior Zhamal Thomas (#70) played in 11 games last season and backs up the RG position. All in all, the Razorbacks have some decent players down the depth chart at basically every spot.

OL Rating: B+

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State OL

Judging offensive lines is the most subjective analysis in football. Love and Ohio State's Adams were first team all-conference, and Boren also made all-conference teams. Both lines seemed to play better in the second half of the season, as the running games took off and the wins piled up. Both lines have leadership, experience, youth, some depth, and plenty of quality. The answer to which is better will be settled in New Orleans.

Edge: Even

Overall Offensive Analysis

Arkansas has made an interesting transition from the McFadden/Jones/Hillis era of crazy running formations to this era of throwing it all over the field in a more pro style offense. Whatever Petrino has done it has worked, as Arkansas significantly improved their running game this year to go with their passing attack, which has landed them in a BCS bowl game after some big wins, including beating LSU at the close of the season with the Sugar Bowl bid on the line. When the Razorbacks can run, they are almost impossible to defend, because they have a lot of 2nd and 3rd and shorts where they can keep the chains moving short or throw deep. Thus the key for the Buckeyes will be to stall the running game and then pressure the passer, something that worked for Alabama but has been in short supply since then, as Arkansas piled up the points on Auburn despite the loss. This will be a highly challenging game for the Buckeye defense, as the Razorbacks have one of the best attacks in the country.

Overall Offensive Rating: A
2010 Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Preview
Defensive Coordinator Willy Robinson is in his third year with the Razorbacks. A 32 year coaching veteran, Robinson has coached both at the college level and in the NFL including a season as the 49ers Defensive Coordinator (2004). As a player, Robinson was a defensive back, first for the College of the Sequoias (1975-76) and then, after a transfer, with Fresno State (1977-78). With Fresno, Robinson earned first team All-Pacific Coast Conference honors as a junior, and was second team his senior season. Robinson returned to Fresno immediately as a graduate assistant and a year later was coaching outside linebackers at San Jose State. Following that season, he went back to his alma mater where he coached for the next 14 years, rising to the level of co-defensive coordinator in 1988 and being the sole coordinator by 1992-93. In 1994, he left Fresno to join Dennis Erickson at Miami, Fla where he was a part of the 1995 Orange Bowl title game against Nebraska. When Erickson left for the Seattle Seahawks, Robinson went with him coaching former Ohio State great Shawn Springs. In addition to the San Francisco job, Robinson has had stops at New Orleans, Pittsburgh and St. Louis in the NFL, though in 1999 he was Oregon State's defensive coordinator helping the Beavers to a 9th best pass efficiency defense in the nation. It seems the Razorbacks are most comfortable in a 4-2-5 this season, but may run a 4-3 against Ohio State. Nonetheless, according to Rivals, the 4-2-5 is the primary defense and it will be examined as such in the review that follows.

Stats.......|Score..|Tot.Yds..|Rush..|Pass..|INT.| Fum.|Sack.|1stD..|3rd D..|.PCT..|Red Zone.|.PCT.|RZ TDs.|PCT.|TOF..|
Arkansas....|.22.8..|..339.8..|157.4.|182.3.|.11.| 14..|.37..|.216..|54-169.|.32%..|.31-37...|.84%.|.20-37.|54%.|29:46|
Ohio State..|.13.3..|..250.6..|.94.3.|156.2.|.18.|.11.. |.19..|.165..|46-153.|.30%..|.19-27...|.70%.|.14-27.|52%.|27:15|

* TOF = Time on Field (Opponent's T.O.P)

Both the Razorbacks and the Buckeyes do quite well in the 3rd quarter of football games. Arkansas has given up 73, 61 and 103 in the 1st, 2nd and 4th quarters this season, but only 36 in the third. The Buckeyes yielded 56, 48 and 41, comparatively, and a paltry 15 points in the 3rd quarter of games. While Arkansas has yielded 23 or more points in 6 of the 12 games played this season, and 65 to Auburn, Ohio State only gave up as many as 23 twice - once in a 36 - 24 win over Miami and once in a 18 - 31 loss to the Wisconsin Badgers. On the other end of this spectrum, the Buckeyes shut out Purdue, while the Razorbacks best performance was a 3 point outing by Tennessee Tech in the opener. The Razorbacks has demonstrated more ability in bring down opposing QBs than have the Buckeyes, but Ohio State is more likely to earn a turnover. Both teams are good getting off the field on third downs, while Ohio State has yielded significantly fewer first downs this season. In addition to the traditional red-zone numbers as listed above, Arkansas yields 4.68 points per opponent red-zone appearance (173 points in 37 opportunities) to the Buckeyes 4.19 (113 points in 27 attempts). Considering non-red-zone scores, then, it is the Razorbacks who appear more susceptible to the big play. Ohio State has given up just 47 points in non-red-zone scores and Buckeye fans well know about half of those points were given up by the special teams and not the defense. The Razorbacks have given up 100 non-red-zone points, though it appears that 2 of the scores were returned fumbles against the offense and one kick return.

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DE #91 Jake Bequette (6-5, 271, Jr.)
NT #51 Alfred Davis (6-1, 326, So.)
DT #92 DeQuinta Jones (6-5, 307, So.)
DE #58 Damario Ambrose (6-5, 270, Sr.)

Despite only starting in 7 of 12 games this season, Jones is the leader among starting linemen in tackles with 34. Jones has a next level body who was a top prospect coming out of high school. He earned a number of starts last season as a freshman and had a solid season with 24 stops. This year he has not been as effective getting to the QB and he has just half a TFL this season with no sacks. Bequette, on the other hand, is the team leader in sacks with 7 and has 8 overall tackles behind the LOS. The junior possesses speed and quickness off the edge, and can move inside if needed as well. While versatile, he has had bouts of inconsistent play in his career. He has 31 tackles and a fumble recovery this season. In terms of production, Ambrose is right there with Bequette. The senior was and All-SEC teamer as a freshman, but never quite developed into a constant force but has always been a solid linemen nonetheless. He has started every game this season, recording 31 tackles with 6.5 for loss with 3.5 sacks. Rounding out the front four is the mammoth Alfred Davis. A beefy interior presence, Davis has earned 7 starts this season and has produced 22 tackles, 2 for loss with a sack.

Reserves include ends: #90 Colton Miles-Nash (6-6, 261, So.), and #43 Tenarius Wright (6-1, 250, So.), and tackles: #61 Zach Stadther (6-1, 295, Jr.), #99 Lavunce Askew (6-3, 290, Jr.) and #95 Patrick Jones (6-1, 309, Sr.). Wright has not started a game this season, but is tops among all D-Linemen with 36 tackles, 8 for loss with 6 sacks and a fumble recovery. He should see plenty of action against the Buckeyes and can be a match-up problem similar to Nathan Williams of the Buckeyes. Askew has started 5 contests this year and has 21 tackles with 3.5 for loss with one sack, while Miles-Nash has 12 tackles, 1.5 for loss with half a sack in 12 games. Jones has played in 8 games and has averaged one tackle in each game he's played. Stadther has played in 7 games, recording 10 sacks with 1.5 for loss with a sack.

DL Rating: B

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State DL

The Arkansas front four has size and speed to go along with good depth. While the statistics reveal a productive unit, they are giving up far too many yards on the ground to be considered among the elite lines in the country. While the Razorbacks enjoy next level talent, the best NFL prospect on the Sugar Bowl surface among linemen will be Ohio State's Cam Heyward, who could already be playing on Sundays but for his desire to enjoy a 4-year college career. The Razorbacks seem to be more productive in actually bringing the QB down behind the LOS, but Ohio State generates pressure much better than their statistics reveal. Mallett is a quality QB who can deliver the quick pass and thus Ohio State's sack numbers may not improve much in the Sugar Bowl either. Nonetheless, pressure on Mallett is necessary, as he will pick apart any defense if he's given time. Terrelle Pryor is not as deadly as Mallett as a passer, but his mobility creates serious problems for defensive lines who can tire out quickly chasing the huge QB around the field all evening. Arkansas will need to keep their linemen fresh to have much hope of keeping Pryor contained. Overall, the Buckeyes are much better run defenders and considering how much a weapon Mallett is with his arm, expect the Buckeyes to try and establish its run early and often while the Razorbacks instead attack the skies.

Edge: Ohio State

ark7_lb.jpg


LB #34 Jerry Franklin (6-1, 241, Jr.)
LB #1 Anthony Leon (6-4, 227, Sr.)

Franklin came into the season as the team's top tackler with 94 last season - a season in which he established himself as an impact player. Always good on the stat sheet, more of his stops are now made closer to the LOS than downfield. He has great athleticism, and as a former safety, excellent speed and coverage skills for a man his size. It's no surprise to find Franklin's name again atop the stat sheet, leading the team with 93 tackles, 12.5 for loss with 6.5 sacks. Leon is a bit of a tweener who could also play safety, where he is listed as a starter on the depth chart in a 4-3 look. He brings senior leadership and the speed to get into opposing backfield in an instant while also having sure tackling ability. He has 58 stops this season, 10.5 for loss with 2.5 sacks.

Depth at LB comes from #32 Bret Harris (5-11, 228, Jr.), #46 Freddy Burton (6-2, 231, Sr.), #25 Terrell Williams (6-3, 237, So.), #53 Jermaine Love (5-11, 240, Sr.) and #55 Austin Moss (6-3, 227, So.). Williams has seen one start this season and has played in every game. Williams has good size and doesn't miss many tackles when given the chance. He has 38 tackles this year with 3.5 for loss. Burton has also played in every game and has recorded 15 tackles, while Love has played in 10 games recording 12 tackles with a sack. Harris has 4 stops in as many games while Moss has no recorded statistics.

LB Rating: B

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State LBs

The Razorbacks have a very good one in Franklin who represents the top tackler on both teams. Coming into the season, Arkansas wanted more productivity behind the opponent's line of scrimmage and both Franklin and Leon have recorded double-digit TFL numbers. However, as a complete unit, the defense is not an elite run stopping force, and while good in pass situations, very few picks have been produced. The Buckeyes have played many games this season with only two LBs on the field as well. While those men, Rolle and Homan, have not been quite as productive in terms of tackles or TFLs, they have been much stronger in the takeaway department and as the run numbers attest, strong in run support. The third LBs for both units, Sweat for Ohio State and Williams for Arkansas, are productive when on the field, with Sweat getting a slight edge in productivity. While both groups have adequate depth, the rotations are not likely to go particularly deep in the Sugar Bowl barring injury. Chances are, Ohio State will look to establish the run and attempt to get Arkansas to respond by putting another LB on the field. When that happens, Ohio State may have success down the middle with Jake Stoneburner. Conversely, Arkansas might attack the middle immediately with its award-winning tight end D.J. Williams. If able to have success, and if the D-line is not able to get off blocks, the run game of Arkansas is more than able to take advantage.

Edge: Ohio State

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CB #24 Isaac Madison (5-11, 185, Jr.)
FS #5 Tramain Thomas (6-0, 198, Jr.)
SS #4 Rudell Crim (6-0, 209, Sr.)
DB #31 Jerico Nelson (5-10, 214, Jr.)
CB #26 Ramon Broadway (5-9, 191, Sr.)

Nelson was projected as an outside LB coming in to the season, but at 214 plays more like a safety. The clear leader of the secondary, and always fighting his way to the football, Nelson has a team second-best 83 tackles with 11 for loss and 2.5 sacks. He also has recorded a fumble recovery and a pick. The team leader in INTs is Thomas, who has 4 to his credit this year. Thomas has good versatility, able to play safety, corner and nickel. Arkansas wanted him to establish more consistency in 2010, and he seems to have done that, developing into a fine defensive back. He has 71 tackles, half a sack and a fumble recovery this season. He has also blocked a kick. Crim was a starting cornerback a year ago. While playing every game, the JUCO struggled to break up passes and did not record a pick. He's been much better this season, however, recording 3 picks and a fumble recovery while making 48 tackles with 2.5 coming behind the LOS. Broadway may be the Razorbacks number one corner, but he has struggled over his career at generating interceptions. Still, Broadway is a sound tackler who likes to play physical football. He has 38 tackles this season, with half for loss, but has again failed to record an INT for the second straight season. Rounding out the secondary is Madison, who has now recovered from a torn ACL which cut a promising start to his career short. Like Broadway, however, Madison has also failed to generate a turnover this season, but has made 29 tackles in 12 games played, 9 of which he started.

Corners: #21 Darius Winston (6-0, 185, So.), and #36 Andru Stewart (6-0, 200, Sr.), and safeties: #9 Elton Ford (6-0, 220, Jr.), and 38 Jerry Mitchell (6-1, 214, r-Fr.) provide depth. Ford has a start to his credit this season and has been a productive tackler when on the field. He has 39 stops this season with 4.5 coming behind the LOS and one sack. While he has recovered a fumble, he also has not picked off a pass. Winston has played in 11 games, starting 5 of them. He has 14 tackles, and INT and team leading 2 fumble recoveries, while Steward has played in 10 games and has also recorded 14 stops, with a sack and one INT. Mitchell has 7 tackles in limited action.

DB Rating: B-

Head-to-Head: Arkansas versus Ohio State DBs

Arkansas has been pretty good at defending the pass in terms of yards per game, but has not been particularly strong in terms of creating turnovers. The Buckeyes secondary, while a MASH unit this season, has been much more productive in that respect. Both teams field defensive backs who are sound tacklers, but the Buckeyes seem to be better poised to limit the opposing passing game than do the Razorbacks. Of course, this will be put to the test on January 4, as Mallett represents the most polished passer the Buckeyes will have faced this season. The Buckeyes anticipate the return of Christian Bryant, but will once again be playing without Tyler Moeller who would have been a good option to cover D.J. Williams. While it's expected that the Buckeyes will try and establish a ball control, run-oriented offense, it would not be unprecedented if Ohio State tests Arkansas' ability to cover early.

Edge: Ohio State

Overall Defensive Analysis

You don't get to the Sugar Bowl without fielding a decent defense, and Arkansas is no exception. However, the Razorbacks have a ways to go to be considered among the nation's elite. The Razorbacks yield too many yards to opposing running games; and while good in terms of yards against in the passing game, the secondary has not been productive on the edges. Ohio State is among the elite defenses in the nation, but in fairness the Silver Bullets have not faced an offense with a QB like Mallett and his 300+ yard per game arm. Like always, much will depend on line play - if Ohio State is able to generate pressure, the DBs will be just fine. However, if unable to force Mallett to move, the secondary could be in for a long evening as Mallett is quite able to pick apart a defense. On paper, the Buckeyes should be better at stopping the running game, which gives them a slight edge in terms of forcing the opposition to go 'one dimensional'. But again, passing to a win is not something that the Razorbacks will shy away from. In any event, the Buckeyes defense is better as individual units and overall, but Arkansas' defense is certainly not a liability - despite being gashed for 65 points by Auburn.

Overall Defensive Rating: B
2010 Arkansas Razorbacks Special Teams Preview
The 2010 football season for the Ohio State Buckeyes ends January 4th in the Sugar Bowl against the Arkansas Razorbacks. OSU had an up and down season on special teams, with the low point coming against Miami. The Hurricanes returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns in that game making it appear much closer that it actually was. The high point had to be against Michigan, where the Buckeye Special Teamers did not allow one significant play.

Special Teams

Arkansas
P #14 Dylan Breeding (6-1, 211, So., Hoover HS, Hoover, AL)
PK #18 Zack Hocker (6-0, 170, Fr., Russellville HS, Russellville, AR)
PR #3 Joe Adams (5-11, 190, Jr., Central Arkansas Christian HS, Little Rock, AR)
PR #11 Cobi Hamilton (6-3, 209, So., Texarkana HS, Texarkana, AR)
PR #4 Jarius Wright (5-10, 180, Jr., Warren HS, Warren, AR)
KR #33 Dennis Johnson (5-9, 213, Jr., Arkansas HS, Texarkana, AR)
KR #82 Lance Ray (6-3, 207, Fr., East Gadsen HS, Havana, FL)
LS #59 Rhett Richardson (6-0, 214, Sr., Rockwell HS, Rockwell, TX)
Hldr #89 Austin Tucker (6-1, 195, So., Shiloh Christian HS, Springdale, AR)

The Arkansas Special Teams also had an up and down year in 2010. Mostly down if you listen to those who closely follow the program. At least one of the units enjoyed great success in 2010, however. Sophomore punter Dylan Breeding averaged 40.22 yards per punt with a 36.64 yard net average to rank 58th in the country. Punt returners Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton and Jarius Wright have been sterling, having returned 17 punts for 293 yds and 1 Touchdown (17.24 avg) to rank 4th in the nation. Kickoff return men Dennis Johnson and Lance Ray have fared much worse, returning 50 kickoffs for 980 yds (19.6 avg), to rank only 102nd in the nation. Arkansas' Special Teams' defense units have been hit and miss all year as well. The punt return defense has a nice rating of 26th in the nation by allowing 15 returns for only 87 yds, a 5.8 avg. The kickoff defense has not been very good, however. They have allowed 65 returns for 1681 yds, a 25.86 avg, with 1 td allowed and 15 touchbacks, to rank only 111th in the nation. But make no mistake, the Razorbacks have the athletes and if the Buckeyes get too lax, they could find themselves down 6 really quick.

ST Rating: C

Ohio State
P #17 Ben Buchanan (6-0, 195, Fr., Westerville Central HS, Westerville, OH)
PK #24 Devin Barclay (5-10, 204, Sr., McDonough HS, Annapolis, MD)
KO #24 Drew Basil (6-1, 206, Fr., Chillicothe HS, Chillicothe, OH)
PR #8 DeVier Posey (6-2, 200, Jr., LaSalle HS, Cincinnati, OH)
PR #10 Corey Brown (5-10, 170, Fr., Cardinal O'Hara HS, Upper Darby, PA)
PR #7 Jordan Hall (5-9, 195, So., Jeanette HS, Jeanette, PA)
KR #1 Dan Herron (5-10, 202, Jr., Harding HS, Warren, OH)
KR #3 Brandon Saine (6-1, 219, Sr., Piqua HS, Piqua, OH)
KR #7 Jordan Hall (5-9, 195, So., Jeanette HS, Jeanette, PA)
KR #4 Jaamal Berry (5-10, 200, Fr., Palmetto HS, Pinecrest, FL)
LS #96 Jake McQuaide (6-3, 234, Sr., Elder HS, Cincinnati, OH)
Hldr #14 Joe Bauserman (6-1, 233, Jr., Lincoln HS, Stasburg, VA)

The Buckeyes ended 2010 with 3 consecutive good games on Special Teams. Their effort against Michigan was especially impressive as the Wolverines' units were a non-factor. But the Buckeyes have followed good Special Teams performances with really bad ones, so we need to wait and see which shows up in the Sugar Bowl. The Ohio State Special Teams' season can be summed up in "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly". The good? The Buckeyes kickoff return team finished 3rd in the nation, returning 35 kicks for 942 yds, a 26.91 avg. The bad? Buchanon averaged 40.22 on his punts, (a 35.1 avg net) to rank 84th in the nation. The Ugly? The Buckeyes' punt and kickoff return defenses gave up 3 TDs in the regular season and ranked in the bottom half in the nation. But, like Arkansas, the Ohio State special teams have the athletes to make a team regret not giving full effort. With the high-flying offense that Arkansas is bringing to New Orleans every play could be crucial. They cannot allow Arkansas to operate on a short field.

ST Rating: C-

Edge: Arkansas (barely)
Predictions
BB73's prediction: 58-56 (7OT), Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34-17, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 27-21, Ohio State
Bucky Katt's prediction: 27-23, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 34-24, Ohio State
JCOSU86's Prediction: 31-27, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 31-28, Ohio State

Previous Game's Results (tOSU 37 - TSUN 7)

Low score wins the year-long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)

(213) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 51-20, Ohio State (27 + 186 last week = 213)
(225) Bucklion's prediction: 38-21, Ohio State (15 + 210 last week = 225)
(226) Bucky Katt's prediction: 41-31, Ohio State (28 + 198 last week = 226)
(237) jwinslow's prediction: 42-28, Ohio State (26 + 211 last week = 237)
(239) JCOSU86's prediction: 45-21, Ohio State (22 + 217 last week= 239)
(246) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 45-24, Ohio State (25 + 221 last week = 246)
(254) BB73's prediction: 31-27 Ohio State (26 + 228 last week = 254)

Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
 
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Great write-up, as always. Much appreciated, as always!!
Buckeyeskickbuttocks;1842914; said:
Arkansas has given up 73, 61 and 103 in the 1st, 2nd and 4th quarters this season, but only 36 in the third. The Buckeyes yielded 56, 48 and 41, comparatively, and a paltry 15 points in the 3rd quarter of games.
Interesting that in our worst quarter of football, Arkansas's worst quarter is almost twice as bad. While our best quarter is twice as good as Arkansas's best quarter. It's promising that they (Arkansas) play their worst defense at the end of the game, while we get better as the game goes on - even allowing for garbage time.

This will be the most well-rounded offense we've played. Hope the defensive numbers hold up!
 
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That is a genuinely great write up. We won't see a better one anywhere. I am thoroughly impressed.

Having said that, just a couple of notes and nits to pick:

Note: In film review preparing for the '78 Orange Bowl, Sweet Lou noticed a 'tell' where one of the Oklahoma offensive linemen was giving away the play before the Sooner offense could run it. Armed with that information, he knew the Hogs could shut down the Billy Sims led wishbone offense, but the 18+ point underdog Hog offense was a huge question with three key players suspended for the game.

Backup tailback Roland Sales went off for 205 yards rushing on 22 carries - an Orange Bowl record that stood until Nebraska's Ahman Green broke it by 1 yard 20 years later.

Nit: Receivers Rating B+ - I'm thinking that's low. As a group, the Razorback receivers might be the best in the nation. And while I understand that there might be concerns about depth with Javontee Herndon and Lance Ray as unproven freshmen backups, the word out of Fayetteville is that both are ready to be starters and are simply waiting their turn. It's a very well coached group with a lot of pride.

Note: Ray Dominguez is a very good offensive lineman once the ball is in play. The problem is that he is an offsides penalty waiting to happen. I don't know what his numbers are on that, but its a big one. He drives Razorback fans absolutely crazy as it seems he commits 2 or 3 per game. Which leads us to...

Nit: You didn't include a penalties breakdown. I'd bet the Razorbacks have significantly higher number than the Buckeyes.

Note: Defensive back Ramon Broadway is out of the game with an ankle injury.

Note: You have Dennis Johnson listed as a kickoff returner. He is out for the year with a ruptured bowel suffered during the second game of the season.

Note: Arkansas' special teams have only one weak spot - kickoff coverage. All the other special team units are solid.


Intangibles: This is one of the more intriguing aspects of the game, especially in light of the recent NCAA issue.

1. Will the Buckeyes be distracted by the recent troubles, or focused and motivated by them?
2. Playing in a BCS game is routine for the Buckeyes while it is the Razorbacks first time.
3. The much-discussed Buckeye record vs. the SEC in bowl games vs. the Razorback record against the Big 10 in bowl games.

While both teams have had outstanding seasons, both fell short of their ultimate goals. The Buckeyes were believed to be poised for another BCS Championship game, only to get derailed in a loss to Wisconsin. Arkansas had hoped to make a run at the SEC championship, but their second loss of the season at Auburn all but killed that hope. Nevertheless, here we both are in what is one of the two best match-ups of the bowl season. A win for either team sets them up nicely as a highly ranked team in the pre-season next year.

Last year in the Liberty Bowl, Bobby Petrino suspended two Razorback defensive starters and actually sent them home for breaking curfew. Razorback fans believe the team will be focused and highly motivated, and do not expect any off-the-field issues leading up to the game. We believe they will be determined to prove themselves worthy of being ready to step up to a higher level of national respect. With it being their first ever BCS bowl, the recent lock-down of Bobby Petrino into an unprecedented long-term contract and a very exciting recruiting season underway, Razorback fans believe the program to be on the verge of being a genuine SEC contender and on the cusp of long-term success not seen since the 60's and 70's. A win over OSU in a BCS bowl will cement that perception among Razorback fans. It is an exciting time to be a Hog fan.

Things are a bit uncertain for the Buckeyes at the moment, but as long as Jim Tressel is coach at Ohio State, the Buckeyes will be a contender for the B10 championship and beyond. Yet the recent NCAA issue has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the game. Will the players be motivated and focused, or distracted and divided? Which of the players will declare for the NFL draft? With the suspensions delayed until next year, the Buckeyes face the prospect of playing teams without some key players. The outcome of the Sugar Bowl, along with the decisions on who will and won't declare for the NFL draft will go a long way in determining their pre-season ranking next year. Will the Buckeyes take the upstart Razorbacks lightly? Will playing in yet another BCS game be a plus or a minus? Regardless of what you think the answers to these questions are, there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the game and the team, and we won't know the real answers until after the final whistle blows next Tuesday night.


SmoovP's Keys To The Game For A Buckeye Win:

1. Long grinding drives that result in points.
2. A healthy dose of improvisation and determined, freelance running by Pryor.
3. Take a few shots downfield in the passing game.
4. Stop or limit the big play against Arkansas' passing game.

I think the best blueprint for the Buckeye offense is the Auburn game. Meaning, turn Terelle Pryor loose and hope he has a monster game. If he has a similar game to last year's Rose Bowl, OSU has a better than good chance of winning.

The best blueprint for the Buckeye defense is the Alabama game. Meaning, limit the big play by keeping everything in front of the defense. If the Buckeyes can force the Razorbacks into long, grinding drives on offense and keep them out of the end zone early, OSU has a good chance of winning.


SmoovP's Keys To The Game For A Razorback Win:

1. Score early.
2. Run the ball successfully.
3. Contain Pryor.

The Razorback offense will come out and challenge the Buckeye secondary early and often. Bobby Petrino's philosophy is "pass to score, run to win". Meaning that he likes to get ahead by passing the ball and then grind out a win with TOP in the running game. The Petrino offense is different than most in that the passing game sets up the running game. Hit a few passes downfield to back up the linebackers and then start running the ball.

I know you guys are sick of hearing it, and will scoff when I repeat it, but the Buckeyes simply haven't faced a downfield passing game this year like you will see vs. the Razorbacks. The Arkansas offense can score from anywhere on the field at any time. If, at any point, the Razorbacks can get up by 14 points I like their chances to win.

The key to understanding the Razorbacks year is that it is a tale of two halves. During the first half of the season, the Hogs weren't very successful in the running game. That alone is responsible for the Alabama loss. But that unit has improved immeasurable over the course of the season.

The defense has also shown marked improvement over the course of the season. It isn't quite the sudden breakthrough that the running game had, but it has been steady improvement as the year has gone along.

Personally, I think this match-up is more intriguing than the Championship Game between Auburn and Oregon. Contrary to many, I'm not expecting a high scoring game. I think 24-28 points will win it.
 
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SmoovP;1843465; said:
Nit: You didn't include a penalties breakdown. I'd bet the Razorbacks have significantly higher number than the Buckeyes.

OSU 60 for 565 yards
Hogs 97 for 783 yards.

We both suck here..but the Razorbacks are surprisingly even suckier.
 
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SmoovP;1843465; said:
Nit: Receivers Rating B+ - I'm thinking that's low. As a group, the Razorback receivers might be the best in the nation. And while I understand that there might be concerns about depth with Javontee Herndon and Lance Ray as unproven freshmen backups, the word out of Fayetteville is that both are ready to be starters and are simply waiting their turn. It's a very well coached group with a lot of pride.

LULZ WUT :lol: :tongue2:

Seriously, thanks for the comments and congrats to your team for a hell of a game...it's just kinda funny the one group you highlighted as too lowly rated really played not very well and cost the team down the stretch.
 
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BB73's prediction: 58-56 (7OT), Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34-17, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 27-21, Ohio State
Bucky Katt's prediction: 27-23, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 34-24, Ohio State
JCOSU86's Prediction: 31-27, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 31-28, Ohio State

My actual prediction was 37-30, I went with the 7 OT score as a trubute to a historic game in Arkansas' past, and it was the only chance I had to catch DBB.

Averaging the predictions (using 37-30) would equal 32-24. Pretty damn close to the final score,

Congrats to DBB in winning the BP predictions contest this year. Maybe there is something to that DSA stuff. :wink2:
 
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