2011 TSUN Wolverines Game Preview
Preface
Ohio State has won the last seven meetings with Michigan and nine of the last ten overall.
Dan "Boom" Herron has rushed for 358 yards and three TDs in three career games vs. UM. All-American center Mike Brewster has made 47 consecutive starts for the Buckeyes.
One has to go back to the 1999 season to find the last time there were consecutive November losses by the Ohio State Buckeyes. Michigan State, Illinois and Michigan defeated the Buckeyes in November of 1999 to end the Buckeyes last non-bowl and non-winning season at 6-6.
While Michigan holds the overall lead in the series against Ohio State with 57 wins against 44 losses and six ties, Ohio State has won seven consecutive games over Michigan. And over the last 60 years, dating to the 1951 season and the first year of coach Woody Hayes' 28-year run as head coach, Ohio State actually leads the series 32-26-2.
Seven consecutive wins by the Buckeyes in this series is the longest winning streak for Ohio State against Michigan. It ties for the second-longest winning streak for either team in this series and it is the longest streak in 84 years. Michigan owns the longest such streak - nine games between 1901-09 - and it also has a six-game victory streak between 1922-27.
OSU / UM Series Win Streaks
9 - Michigan, 1901-09
7 - Ohio State, 2004-current
6 - Michigan, 1922-27
4 - Michigan, 1988-91
4 - Ohio State, 1960-63
4 - Michigan, 1945-48
4 - Ohio State, 1934-37
1st-Year Ohio State Coaches: 5-10-1
Ohio State coaches in their first year at the helm of the program - as Luke Fickell is this season - are 5-10-2 in games against Michigan. Sam Willaman (1929), Francis Schmidt (1934), Carroll Widdoes (1944), Earle Bruce (1979) and Jim Tressel (2001) are the only Ohio State coaches to have their first Ohio State team defeat Michigan.
Only Third Meeting of "Firsts"
Luke Fickell and Michigan coach Brady Hoke are each in their first seasons, thus making this week only the third time that the two schools have each had a first-year coach at the helm for The Game. In 1897 Gustave Ferbert's UM team defeated David F. Edwards' Buckeyes, 34-0, in Ann Arbor, and in 1929 Sam Willaman's Buckeyes defeated Harry Kipke's Woverines, 7-0, also at Ann Arbor. Fickell is Ohio State's 23rd head coach. Hoke is Michigan's 19th.
Lore and More
Since Ohio State's first win over Michigan in 1919, the series is even at 44-44-4. Here's more good stuff through the years:
Ohio State vs. Michigan has been the regular season ender for Ohio State every year since 1935 except one: in 1942 the Buckeyes ended with a game against Iowa Pre-Flight. The Ohio State vs. Michigan game in 1942 was the only previous time that each state's governor was an alumnus of his state's premier university. Both state' governors - Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and Ohio Gov. John Kasich - are graduates of the respective universities.
To mark the occasion, Kasich and Snyder are wagering home-state pies on the game. Snyder has placed a Michigan cherry pie on the line and Kasich a chocolate and peanut butter 'Buckeye' pie.
In 1950 the famous "Snow Bowl" game with Michigan was played in Columbus. Michigan won, 9-3, scoring a safety and a touchdown off blocked punts. Michigan's Chuck Ortmann punted 24 times; Ohio State's Heisman winning Vic Janowicz punted 21 times and kicked a field goal in the blizzard.
In 1963 Ohio State defeated Michigan in Ann Arbor, 14-10, in a game that was delayed a week while the nation mourned the death of President John F. Kennedy.
Ohio State is 20-30-4 vs. Michigan in Ann Arbor and 24-27-2 in games played in Columbus. They are 8-8-1 in games played after Thanksgiving.
TSUN is trying to win 8 home games in a season for the first time since 1917, which means they've never done that in their current stadium.
Denard Robinson has thrown as many TD passes in his TSUN career as Tom Brady did - 35.
Later in this preview, we'll look specifically at this year's offense, defense and special teams for both tOSU and TSUN. The preview also has a totally separate section that covers the opponent's coaching staff, recruiting, traditions, and history. It also contains the Behind the Numbers and The Lighter Side sections, and can be accessed via the link at the bottom of this page.
Date and TimeDan "Boom" Herron has rushed for 358 yards and three TDs in three career games vs. UM. All-American center Mike Brewster has made 47 consecutive starts for the Buckeyes.
One has to go back to the 1999 season to find the last time there were consecutive November losses by the Ohio State Buckeyes. Michigan State, Illinois and Michigan defeated the Buckeyes in November of 1999 to end the Buckeyes last non-bowl and non-winning season at 6-6.
While Michigan holds the overall lead in the series against Ohio State with 57 wins against 44 losses and six ties, Ohio State has won seven consecutive games over Michigan. And over the last 60 years, dating to the 1951 season and the first year of coach Woody Hayes' 28-year run as head coach, Ohio State actually leads the series 32-26-2.
Seven consecutive wins by the Buckeyes in this series is the longest winning streak for Ohio State against Michigan. It ties for the second-longest winning streak for either team in this series and it is the longest streak in 84 years. Michigan owns the longest such streak - nine games between 1901-09 - and it also has a six-game victory streak between 1922-27.
OSU / UM Series Win Streaks
9 - Michigan, 1901-09
7 - Ohio State, 2004-current
6 - Michigan, 1922-27
4 - Michigan, 1988-91
4 - Ohio State, 1960-63
4 - Michigan, 1945-48
4 - Ohio State, 1934-37
1st-Year Ohio State Coaches: 5-10-1
Ohio State coaches in their first year at the helm of the program - as Luke Fickell is this season - are 5-10-2 in games against Michigan. Sam Willaman (1929), Francis Schmidt (1934), Carroll Widdoes (1944), Earle Bruce (1979) and Jim Tressel (2001) are the only Ohio State coaches to have their first Ohio State team defeat Michigan.
Only Third Meeting of "Firsts"
Luke Fickell and Michigan coach Brady Hoke are each in their first seasons, thus making this week only the third time that the two schools have each had a first-year coach at the helm for The Game. In 1897 Gustave Ferbert's UM team defeated David F. Edwards' Buckeyes, 34-0, in Ann Arbor, and in 1929 Sam Willaman's Buckeyes defeated Harry Kipke's Woverines, 7-0, also at Ann Arbor. Fickell is Ohio State's 23rd head coach. Hoke is Michigan's 19th.
Lore and More
Since Ohio State's first win over Michigan in 1919, the series is even at 44-44-4. Here's more good stuff through the years:
Ohio State vs. Michigan has been the regular season ender for Ohio State every year since 1935 except one: in 1942 the Buckeyes ended with a game against Iowa Pre-Flight. The Ohio State vs. Michigan game in 1942 was the only previous time that each state's governor was an alumnus of his state's premier university. Both state' governors - Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and Ohio Gov. John Kasich - are graduates of the respective universities.
To mark the occasion, Kasich and Snyder are wagering home-state pies on the game. Snyder has placed a Michigan cherry pie on the line and Kasich a chocolate and peanut butter 'Buckeye' pie.
In 1950 the famous "Snow Bowl" game with Michigan was played in Columbus. Michigan won, 9-3, scoring a safety and a touchdown off blocked punts. Michigan's Chuck Ortmann punted 24 times; Ohio State's Heisman winning Vic Janowicz punted 21 times and kicked a field goal in the blizzard.
In 1963 Ohio State defeated Michigan in Ann Arbor, 14-10, in a game that was delayed a week while the nation mourned the death of President John F. Kennedy.
Ohio State is 20-30-4 vs. Michigan in Ann Arbor and 24-27-2 in games played in Columbus. They are 8-8-1 in games played after Thanksgiving.
TSUN is trying to win 8 home games in a season for the first time since 1917, which means they've never done that in their current stadium.
Denard Robinson has thrown as many TD passes in his TSUN career as Tom Brady did - 35.
Later in this preview, we'll look specifically at this year's offense, defense and special teams for both tOSU and TSUN. The preview also has a totally separate section that covers the opponent's coaching staff, recruiting, traditions, and history. It also contains the Behind the Numbers and The Lighter Side sections, and can be accessed via the link at the bottom of this page.
Date: Saturday, November 26th, 2011
Time: Noon ET Kick-off
Location: Michigan Stadium - "The Big House" (Ann Arbor, MI)
Constructed: 1927 (Renovated in 2010)
Seating Capacity: 109,901 (Originally 72,000)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Events:
Time: Noon ET Kick-off
Location: Michigan Stadium - "The Big House" (Ann Arbor, MI)
Constructed: 1927 (Renovated in 2010)
Seating Capacity: 109,901 (Originally 72,000)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Events:
Broadcast Information: TV Broadcast: ESPN: Dave Pasch (play-by-play), Chris Spielman (analysys), and Quint Kessenich (sideline)
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS FM 97.1 The Fan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline); also on Sirius Radio 138 and XM channel 91.
2011 TSUN Wolverines Offensive Preview
2011 TSUN Wolverines Offensive Preview
One Game Season. For older fans, it has always rung true. It is the measuring stick of a true rivalry. And in the recent past, it has been completely owned by the Buckeyes, to the tune of a 7 game win streak. Think about that, Ohio State is 7-0 over the past 7 years against their biggest, most hated rival. Due to the hatred and modern equality of the teams involved, other major rivalries do not have such a one-sided recent past. Not the Iron Bowl (Auburn 5, Alabama 2). Not the Red River Rivalry (Texas 4, Oklahoma 3). Not the Backyard Brawl (West Virginia 4, Pitt 3). Not the other "The Game" (Cal 5, Stanford 2). Not the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (Florida 5, Georgia 2). Not even seemingly one-sided rivalries like UCLA/USC (USC 6, UCLA 1). No, only Army/Navy, with the vast gulf of difference in talent between the two sides in the past 10 years, shares a 7-0 mark (Navy has won 9 in a row). In other words, the Buckeyes enjoyed an unprecedented run of success in the Golden Decade under Jim Tressel, winning 9 of 10 games in a rivalry where Earl Bruce once proclaimed his proudest achievement being a 5-4 record against the hated Wolverines. For old school fans, that was a feeling like no other in history.
For younger fans, however, the rivalry has been one-sided enough it has grown somewhat stale. BCS bowls, national title games and the like may have replaced some of the luster of beating the Wolverines. It was a similar story to Michigan in the John Cooper era, where it was once famously proclaimed that Ohio State was no longer their #1 rival. But if any year is indicative of why this is a rivalry considered to be a One Game Season, this is the year. There is no BCS bowl. There is no National Title. Buckeye fans are not worried about where Kirk Herbstreit has them in the polls. This year has been filled with talk of NCAA violations, multiple suspensions of many key players, the early departure of the star QB, losses to teams the Buckeyes have had little trouble with in the recent past, and the loss of the very coach that spoiled everyone by owning Michigan. Just to name a few items. The Buckeyes enter the game with an interim and possibly departing coach, a roster full of players that weren't able to lay the full season, and a 6-5 record that includes only one major win for the entire year. But there is always the last game. That fateful Saturday in November where the results from the first 11 games (or 10...or 9...or 7...) are unimportant. Beat Michigan, and the season ends on a high note, Buckeye fans are rejoicing for another year, the Buckeyes gain a strong edge on regional recruiting, and the season is considered a success, because no season, NO season, that includes a win over Michigan is a failure. However, lose the game...and the 2011 Buckeyes will be a season that many will want to forget, which is a horrible way for any senior class to go out, and a bitter taste in the mouths of fans that will last for at least 364 days. So if there was EVER a season that was a One Game Season, 2011 is it.
If the Buckeyes are going to beat the Wolverines to salvage their season, they are going to have to stop an offense that enters the game rated in the top 35 nationally (434.5 YPG/ T33). Despite the Pro-Style background of Head Coach Brady Hoke, it is probably still not surprising given their personnel that Michigan have been more effective running the ball this year, ranking 12th at 236.1 yards per game. The passing game hasn't been good, but it hasn't been awful moving the ball (211.7 YPG, T86). Where the Wolverines have struggled is throwing INTs (15, T7 most in the country) and in general pass accuracy (52.6% completions, 106th nationally). Given Robinson's mobility, it is not surprising that they haven't given up too many sacks (14). At 33.6 points per game, Michigan has scored plenty of points to keep them in games over the course of the season (26th nationally). The Wolverines have mixed numbers when it comes to moving the chains, as they have a relatively low number of first downs on the year (219, 63rd) but have been able to move the chains respectably on third down (44.2%, T22). All in all, the Wolverine offense has been relatively good on the year, despite being turnover prone, and because of the number of big plays they make, they can pile up points in a hurry. It will be incumbent on the Buckeyes to get pressure on Robinson early and get him out of rhythm. If they can force him to scramble and create some turnovers, they can reproduce the last 2 games against him, where they controlled the field for significant portions of the game. However if Robinson gets going early and is able to hit a couple of downfield throws, then the long losing streak to the Buckeyes might finally come to an end.
Quarterbacks
QB #16 Denard Robinson (6-0, 195, JR, Deerfield Beach HS, Deerfield Beach, FL)
Robinson entered his junior year unsure what his role would be, given the Pro Style background of Coach Brady Hoke. However the staff has stuck with Robinson this year, and to their credit they have adapted their offense to his talents. As a result he has started every game and has pushed his consecutive starts streak to 24. Robinson is never going to be Peyton Manning in the backfield, so his ability to run, create space with his feet, and keep plays alive with his mobility to hit big throws downfield have been on display. He has just 2 games where he has topped 200 yards passing, and he actually topped 300 both times: Notre Dame, where he led the big comeback with 338 passing yards on just 11 completions with 4 TDs and 3 INTs, and Northwestern, where he led another 2nd half comeback with 337 yards on 17 completions with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. He's only attempted more than 25 passes in a game 2 times, against Northwestern (26) and Iowa (37), so when the Wolverine offense is working the way they want, he will throw it about 18-20 times. The Northwestern and Notre Dame games are indicative of the fact that when he throws for a lot of yards, he is prone to throwing INTs. In fact he has thrown at least one INT in 6 straight games, and in 9 of the 10 games he has played in (note: the stats from the season opener against Western Michigan do not count officially, so will not be referenced here). He has also failed to complete 50% of his throws 5/10 times this season, so he is prone to forcing the ball downfield and losing accuracy on the run. In contrast to his inconsistent throwing, Robinson is often touted at the beginning of the season as a Heisman candidate for his playmaking ability with the ball in his hands, and he has made plenty of those plays this year. He has topped 100 yards rushing 4 times (Notre Dame: 108; Eastern Michigan: 198; SDSU: 200; Minnesota: 117) and has scored at least 1 rushing TD in 9 of his 10 games. He had a recent stretch where he carried the ball less, but he had 23 carries for 83 yards and 2 TDs against Nebraska last week as he led Michigan to their 9th win. Robinson has great speed and a bevy of moves that make it very difficult for a single defender to tackle him in the open field. As a result, he is a threat to break a big run any time he turns upfield. Robinson has played 2 previous games against the Buckeyes. In 2009 in a limited role, he was 2 of 4 for 3 yards passing, and had 10 carries for 31 yards as Michigan lost 21-10. Last year as the unquestioned starter, he had 18 carries for 105 yards, but was just 8 of 18 passing for 87 yards as Michigan got blown out 37-7. This year is his best chance to lead the Wolverines to a season-ending victory, and if he can get into a rhythm early, he may be able to do it.
The backup is sophomore Devin Gardner (#7), a big kid (6-4, 205) who has seen action in the past 7 games. Though he is not yet ready to run the full offense, he has a strong arm and has thrown for 176 yards, a TD and an INT on the season. He is not nearly the rushing threat that Robinson is, though he did have 39 rushing yards against Minnesota and scored a TD against Northwestern.
QB Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan QB versus OSU QB
Robinson: 110/207 (53.1%), 1791 yards, 15 TDs, 14 INTs, 136.2 rating; 174/947, 14 TDs
Miller: 53/109 (48.6%), 762 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs, 129.1 rating; 128/595, 6 TDs
Robinson is always deadly on the ground, but his passing numbers have regressed such that he has a lower completion %, less TD passes, more INTs, and more sacks than a year ago. The teams that have beaten Michigan this season (Michigan State, Iowa) basically physically beat him up and dared him to throw the ball downfield. They key to getting to Robinson seems to be to make him run where he doesn't want to go, hit him some, and get more than one defender around him. The linebacking corps is key to all of those those, and the Buckeyes don't have the speed or playmakers that they have had in the recent past. Shazier however has the speed and athletic ability to track Robinson, so his play will likely be key to the outcome of the game. The front 4 will also need to try and keep him in the pocket as best they can, to keep him from opening it up on the perimeter. Miller is a work in progress and last week it was evident that he also has a long way to go in the passing game. The return of Posey helps him some, but he still misses too many receivers and looks to run too quickly at times. He doesn't turn the ball over a ton but he needs work on accuracy and reading defenses. He like Robinson is a threat to break a long run at virtually any time. The backups for both teams are relatively inexperienced, though Gardner has been getting some work this season as a potential QB of the future.
Edge: Michigan
Running Backs
TB #28 Fitzgerald Toussaint (5-10, 195, SO, Liberty HS, Youngstown, OH)
FB #33 Stephen Hopkins (6-0, 228, SO, Marcus HS, Double Oak, TX)
Toussaint is relatively new on the scene, with just 8 carries last season and not getting a carry until week 4 this season. At that point he got 11 carries for 46 yards and a TD against Eastern Michigan, and he has seen his role slowly expand since then to where he has been the feature back over the previous month, cracking the 100 yard barrier 3 times and scoring 5 TDs in the last 3 games. The Ohio product is not especially big but he is fast and has a nice set of cutback moves. Hist first big game was against Minnesota where he had 108 yards and a TD on just 11 carries, and over the past 4 games he had 170 yards and 2 TDs against Purdue, 192 yards and a TD against Illinois, and 138 yards and 2 TDs against Nebraska. Interestingly the 2 games the Wolverines have lost are the 2 where he has been least successful over the past 2 months, with just 2 carries for 4 yards against Michigan State and 16 carries for 58 yards against Iowa. Expect a heavy workload for Toussaint in this game, as he will likely be a key to taking some pressure off of Robinson early. He is little help to him in the passing game, however, with just 4 receptions for 8 yards.
To win the job Toussaint had to pass 2 program veterans, who are now the backups. Junior Vincent Smith (#2) is a small, fleet-footed runner (5-6, 172) who is still utilized regularly and is a significant threat in the passing game. He has made just one start (Minnesota) but has been a regular contributor. Smith's season highlights include 9 carries for 118 yards against Eastern Michigan, a pair of rushing TDs back-to-back against SDSU and Minnesota, and receiving TDs against Notre Dame and Minnesota. He has 10 receptions and averages almost 15 yards a catch, so he is dangerous on screens and swing passes, where he can be difficult to find or tackle. Last year he had just 17 yards on 8 carries against the Buckeyes, though in 2009 he had 8 carries for 23 yards ajnd 3 receptions for 28 yards and a TD, which would be a line that the Wolverines would likely be happy with again. The other backup, senior Michael Shaw (#20) has seen his production diminish severely this season after rushing for 402 yards and 9 TDs last year. He had 60 yards against Minnesota and 56 with a TD against Purdue, but he has cracked 5 yards rushing just 1 other time and has started just one game (Notre Dame). He entered 2009's Ohio State game with plenty of interesting pregame comments but had just 7 carries for 7 yards, and followed that with a more respectable 8 carries for 52 yards and a TD last year.
Hopkins is a program veteran and a good blocking FB. He doesn't carry it much (10 for 40 yards) and doesn't catch passes a lot, but he is good at blocking for the running game, which is his primary responsibility.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan RB versus OSU RB
Toussaint: 143/811 yards, 7 TDs, 5.7 YPC; 4 rec/8 yards, 1 TD, 2.0 YPR
Smith: 46/282 yards, 2 TDs, 6.1 YPC; 10 rec/142 yards, 2 TDs, 14.2 YPR
Shaw: 27/145 yards, 2 TDs, 5.4 YPC; 1 rec/12 yards, 0 TDs, 12.0 YPR
Herron: 107/556 yards, 2 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 3 rec/17 yards, 0 TDs, 5.7 YPR
Hyde: 101/549 yards, 6 TDs, 5.4 YPC; 9 rec/65 yards, 0 TDs, 7.2 YPR
Hall: 95/381 yards, 2 TDs, 4.0 YPC; 5 rec/70 yards, 2 TDs, 14.0 YPR
Both teams have seen flux in their running back situations this year, with Toussaint eventually emerging as Michigan's go-to option and Herron returning from suspension midseason to now lead the team in rushing. Herron is clearly the best and most polished of this group, and he hasn't had an entire season of pounding, so he will likely still be fresh for this game. He is likely the single most important factor for the Buckeyes, because he has plenty of experience in these games and will need to heavily produce if the Buckeyes are going to win. The reserves are interesting stories, as Hyde played well in Herron's absence but had some costly turnovers last week, while Smith is not an every down back but brings expolsivity and dynamic playmaking to the passing game as well. Shaw has lots of experience, both in general and against the Buckeyes, and the Wolverines might turn to him more this week despite sparse production in recent weeks. The FBs are good blockers for both teams. One thing is certain, and that is that whichever team can take pressure off of their QB will be in prime position to win the game. That said, Herron is the most polished and most successful of this group so far, and he will want to end his star-crossed career with one final moment of glory. Toussaint could be an emerging superstar, and this game will tell a lot as to whether that is the case or not.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #12 Roy Roundtree (6-0, 177, JR, Trotwood-Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
WR #21 Junior Hemmingway (6-1, 222, SR, Conway HS, Conway, SC)
Roundtree and Hemmingway have both been around the program for a while and have started a combined 56 games, so they bring experience and leadership to the offense. Hemmingway is a big target and is the leading receiver this season. He could surpass his 2010 totals of 32 receptions for 593 yards with a good game on Saturday. He has had some good games for the Wolverines this season, headlined by the 3 reception, 165 yard performance against Notre Dame and his 5 catch, 124 yard effort against Northwestern. He has been a consistent contributor, catching between 2 and 5 passes most games despite the passing game as a whole being very up and down. In his entire career, he has just 1 catch for 5 yards against Ohio State, so he is doubtlessly ultra-motivated for the game Saturday as it will be his last shot to make an impact in the series. Roundtree led the team in receiving in 2009 and 2010, and he nearly cracked the 1000 yard barrier last year with 72 receptions for 935 yards and 7 TDs. He has been almost an afterthought this year, however, as he has only 15 receptions on the season. He caught 3 passes for 83 yards against Northwestern and then 4 for 66 and a TD against Michigan State, but that has been about the extent of his production, as he topped 50 yards receiving just one other time and hasn't caught more than 2 passes in any other game either. He has game-breaking speed and runs decent routes, but he just hasn't had the chances that he had last year. He had 5 receptions for 43 yards last year against the Buckeyes and torched the secondary for 116 yards on 9 catches in 2009, so it would not be a surprise at all to see him play a prominent role in the game on Saturday.
The primary reserve making a big impact for the Wolverines is sophomore burner Jeremy Gallon (#10), who is second on the team with 26 receptions. He has been a consistent contributor throughout the year, highlighted by 2 receptions for 78 yards and a TD against ND, 5 for 73 and a TD against NW, 3 for 79 against Purdue and 3 for 34 and a TD last week against the Huskers. He has great speed and is a star on the rise as he learns the intricacies of route running and body leverage. The Wolverines do not go a great deal deeper than that, though senior and program veteran Martavious Odoms (#9) has 5 receptions in the past 3 games and may play more this weekend because of his experience. He has started the past 2 games so he is likely to be a regular on the field Saturday. His OSU game career consists of 5 receptions for 37 yards as a freshman in 2008. Otherwise senior Kelvin Grady (#19) has barely seen the field despite starting 3 games, and sophomores Jeremy Jackson (#17) and Drew Dileo (#26) will catch an occasional pass.
WR Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan WRs versus OSU WRs
Hemmingway: 29 catches, 554 yards, 1 TD, 19.1 YPR
Gallon: 26 catches, 425 yards, 3 TDs, 16.3 YPR
Roundtree: 15 catches, 324 yards, 2 TDs, 21.6 YPR
Smith: 11 catches, 241 yards, 4 TDs, 21.9 YPR
Brown: 12 catches, 129 yards, 0 TDs, 10.8 YPR
Fields: 7 catches, 101 yards, 0 TDs, 14.4 YPR
The Wolverines have some quality talent here, but the general regression of the passing game has reduced all of their production. Roundtree in particular has fallen way off, though Hemmingway has stepped up his game and will likely lead the team in receiving and match last year's totals. The team also has some veterans like Odoms and Grady, but there have been so many changes at Michigan and so much upheaval in the passing game that it is little wonder that they don't have huge stats as their careers wind down. One wonders how things might have been different for this group had Ryan Mallet stayed and a more traditional offensive scheme employed over the past 3 years. In any event, the Buckeye receivers are growing slowly and gaining valuable experience, but they have had trouble creating separation and catching the ball all season. Posey's return adds a spark to the offense, and he looked decent last week, but it doesn't appear that the passing game will make great strides until next season regardless. Michigan has the depth and experience edge, and in general they are more dangerous here.
Edge: Michigan
Tight Ends
TE #86 Kevin Koger (6-4, 258, SR, Whitmer HS, Toledo, OH)
Koger seems like he has been around forever (29 career starts), and he is having another good season, tied for third in receptions and tied for the team lead in TD receptions. His numbers are very comparable to the previous 2 seasons and he has turned in a very solid career at Michigan. He is a decent receiver and a good blocker, with good size and good technique. He's never had much luck against Ohio State in the receiving department, with 1 catch for 3 yards last year being the sum total of his production. He does have a penchant for getting open, however, and if he had more consistent hands he would likely be a 25-30 reception TE. His backup is fellow senior Steve Watson (#84; 6-4, 255) who is strong and blocks well. He is a good short-yardage player.
TE Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan TE versus OSU TE
Koger: 15 catches, 179 yards, 3 TDs, 11.9 YPR
Watson: 1 catch, 9 yards, 1 TD, 9.0 YPR
Stoneburner: 13 catches, 157 yards, 7 TDs, 12.1 YPR
Fragel: 4 catches, 44 yards, 0 TDs, 11.0 YPR
Koger has had a nice career at Michigan and the Wolverines are deep and experienced, with 3 upperclassmen on the depth chart. Koger is an inconsistent receiver who has had his share of drops, but he is a good blocker and cannot be ignored over the middle. Stoneburner finally got into the receiving act again last week and this is yet another year of Buckeye fans saying "What if" with regards to the TE in the passing game. With 7 TD receptions he has been the most valuable weapon in the passing game and he will be an important target this weekend. Fragel is a decent blocking TE.
Edge: Ohio State
Offensive Line
LT #77 Taylor Lewan (6-8, 302, SO, Chaparral HS, Scottsdale, AZ)
LG #52 Ricky Barnum (6-3, 292, JR, Lake Gibson HS, Lakeland, FL)
C #50 David Molk (6-2, 286, SR, Lemont Township HS, Lemont, IL)
RG #65 Patrick Omameh (6-4, 300, JR, St. Francis DeSales HS, Columbus, OH)
RT #72 Mark Huyge (6-6, 302, SR, Catholic Central HS, Wyoming, MI)
The Wolverine line has traditionally been a big, physical line made up of multiple future NFL players. This year's line may not quite live up to either billing, as many are left over from the Rodriguez era, but the line has been by and large in tact all season and the run blocking in particular has been good. The line is anchored along the interior by Omameh and Molk, who have started every game this season and are second and third on the current Michigan consecutive starts list with 27 and 24, respectively. Omameh was Academic All-B1G last year and has played guard and tackle, so he is a smart player with a good understanding of the line. Molk is a bit undersized and has battled injuries in the past but has been a fixture on the line for the past 2 seasons. He is a team captain with 40 career starts who was named All-B1G last year and is a prime candidate to repeat on the first team this year. The tackle spots have also been stable, with Lewan and Huyge starting every game this season. Lewan has a good wingspan and has had a good season thus far, and will be a candidate for postseason conference honors. Huyge is similarly well built with good lateral movement and has started games at both tackle spots and also at guard in his career, so he versatile and valuable. The LG spot is the only one where there has been any flux. Barnum has made only 3 starts at the spot earlier in the year, but he is listed at the top of the chart this week.
The 2-deep depth chart is sparse and features only a few players with game experience. Sophomore Michael Schofield (#75) is the primary backup at both tackle spots and has started 8 games at LG this season. He will likely see the field quite a bit on Saturday. The guard spots are both manned by junior Elliot Mealer (#57), who plays sparingly on offense but quite a bit on special teams. In the middle, junior Rocko Khoury (#63) plays sparingly.
OL Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan OL versus OSU OL
The Wolverines have had quite a bit of consistency on the line this season, and they have gotten good play in general. They have not allowed a lot of sacks and they have established one of the nation's best rushing attacks. Molk is the leader of the group and has received his share of acclaim, but players like Omameh and Lewan have also had good seasons. LG could be a weaker spot for the Buckeyes to attack. The Buckeye offensive line has undergone a lot of changes this season due to injuries and suspensions, and they have not been able to provide Miller with the type of protection that a young QB needs. The running game has been decent but even that has been less impressive than in past seasons. Depth is a big concern for both teams, and for Michigan in particular once they get past Schofield.
Edge: Michigan
Overall Offensive Analysis
Overall the Wolverines appear to still be a "risk/reward" offense, and likely will be as long as Robinson is at the helm. When he is good, as he was in leading the comeback victory over Notre Dame, there are few defenses that can stop him and there are few players who can take over a game more single-handedly. However when he is off, he can throw some terrible passes and take some big losses. Michigan State and Iowa employed a very physical style against him with great success...more finesse defenses like Northwestern have had no luck at all. The Buckeyes will have to get pressure on him and contain him in the pocket, which will likely make Shazier a central figure. Robinson has some decent targets downfield, and it will be important for the Buckeye secondary to stay with their keys, because if they break off to chase Robinson he will fire a late pass downfield for a big gain. Roundtree is especially dangerous in that situation, and Hemmingway has come up with some big first downs in those situations as well. The running game with Toussaint is solid and Smith adds multiple dimensions when he is in the game. The line is decent but physical fronts can have some success, as they are not as big as traditional Wolverine lines over the years. Despite the good supporting cast, the game probably comes down to whether the Buckeyes can disrupt Robinson. If they can, they can get some turnovers and force some bad throws. If they can't, and Robinson has a big day, it is hard to see how the Buckeyes can stay in a shootout. With the offensive struggles, the Buckeye defense enters this game with more pressure on them than in past seasons. If they give up 3 TDs, it is unclear if the offense can match that, so the D will have to play their best game of the season and force Robinson to beat them throwing the ball.
Overall Offensive Rating: B-
2011 TSUN Wolverines Defensive Preview
The hiring of DC Greg Mattison for $750,000 a year has proven to be wise investment for Brady Hoke. Mattison had been the DC at TSUN in 1995-96 when Hoke was the DE coach. Mattison was at Notre Dame from 1997-2004, and then he was the Co-DC at Florida for 3 years, including their BCS win in the 2006 season. He became the LB coach for the Baltimore Ravens in 2008, and was the Ravens DC the past two years.
Dumping the 3-3-5 run under RichRod and Greg Robinson, TSUN now uses an aggressive 4-3 scheme, and brings a lot of pressure in third down situations. And the improvement is readily seen by looking at the numbers.
After allowing 35.2 points per game in 2010, Michigan's defense is allowing 15.6 points per game through 11 games in 2011, ranking 2nd in the Big Ten and 6th in the nation.
U-M has improved from 108th in total defense in 2010 (447.9 ypg) to 14th in 2011, allowing 312.6 yards per game. U-M has forced 26 turnovers in 2011, including multiple turnovers in nine of 11 games. The Wolverines' 26 turnovers rank 1st in the Big Ten and tied for 11th in the FBS. Michigan ranks 2nd in the nation in red zone defense (21-32, 66%).
Defensive Line
DE #88 Craig Roh (6-5, 269, Jr.)
DT #39 Will Heininger (6-6, 295, Sr.)
DT #68 Mike Martin (6-2, 304, Sr.)
DE #53 Ryan Van Bergen (6-6, 288, Sr.)
The starting unit has enjoyed relatively good health this season. Martin, Roh, and Heininger have started every game, and Van Bergen has started every contest except Purdue. At the start of the season, Heininger was on the outside and Van Bergen was a DT, but they changed positions after Notre Dame in week two. Heininger had 4 tackles in the loss to Sparty, including 2 TFLs. He's somewhat of a plugger that benefits from all of the attention that Martin draws.
Martin has a good motor and when he's healthy represents the line's top defender. With legitimate size and a good first step, Martin is the type of player that commands respect from opposing fans, as Brandon Graham did a couple of years back. Martin made the Watch Lists for both the Bednarik and Rotary Lombardi Awards this season. He has 47 tackles, 5.5 for loss with 3 sacks this year, and recorded a safety against Purdue (the only safety for TSUN in more than 2,926 days).
Van Bergen provides the line with a consistent presence, having started every game but one for the last three seasons, and made the Ted Hendricks Award Watch List this year. While he's not a speed rush guy, he does demonstrate ability to get behind the LOS with regularity and has good hands, making him a threat to knock down passes (9 career PBUs, 3 in 2011) if he can't get to the QB. He has 34 tackles this season, 10 for loss and 4.5 sacks. He's been coming on of late, with 5 TFLs, including 3.5 sacks, in the last 2 games. His 7 tackles and 2.5 sacks in the Illini game earned him B1G Co-Defensive Player of the Week. He also had 3 TFLs in The Game last year.
Rounding out the line is Roh, who has started 36 straight games, the most on the team. Roh has record 29 tackles, 8 for loss with 4 sacks. Roh is the line's quickest player and has 1 forced fumble this year.
Reserve DEs include #55 Jibreel Black (6-2, 260, So.), #67 Nathan Brink (6-5, 263, So.), and #57 Frank Clark (6-2, 228, Fr.). Inside depth comes from #73 Will Campbell (6-5, 322, Jr.), and #76 Quinton Washington (6-4, 302, So.). Of the reserves, Campbell is the one worth noting. Somewhat of a career underachiever, he could see more playing time if tOSU is having success running up the middle.
DL Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: TSUN DL versus OSU DL
Michigan's line is their best unit among the defensive groups. Mike Martin is a standout whose non-stop effort is admirable. Roh and Van Bergen have been solid at the DE spots. The Buckeyes have two excellent players in John Simon and Johnathan Hankins, but the injury to Nathan Williams has left tOSU without a consistent speed rusher from the D-Line. Based on productivity, the nod goes to the home team here.
Edge: TSUN
Linebackers
SLB #90 Jake Ryan (6-3, 230, rFr.)
MLB #25 Kenny Demens (6-1, 248, Jr.)
WLB #8 Desmond Morgan (6-1, 220, Fr.)
Demens is the team's leading tackler with 78 stops, 43 being solo. He also has 4.5 TFLs (including 2.5 sacks) and 1 forced fumble. He had 13 tackles in their bowl loss to Mississippi State last season, and made 12 stops against Notre Dame earlier this year. He has good size, has started every game, and is a reliable player in the middle of the defense.
Ryan has started every game except Notre Dame and Northwestern, since he's the LB that gets removed for their nickel package. Ryan is something of a ball-hawk, and has 27 tackles including 6.5 TFLs, two fumble recoveries, and one he forced last week against Nebraska. Morgan won the starting Will spot by outperforming 5th year senior Brandon Herron. He had a team-leading 9 tackles in the Purdue game, and 8 more against the Illini.
Depth at the Sam is provided by #4 Cam Gordon (6-3, 222, So.), a former WR who missed the first half of this season with a back injury. He played both SS and Sam last year and got 3 interceptions, but his playing time is down this season. The middle is backed up by #42 J.B. Fitzgerald (6-3, 241, Sr.), who sees limited action behind Demens.
#58 Brandon Herron (6-2, 221, Sr.) who had a 94-yard pick-6 and a fumble recovery for a TD in the Western Michigan game (his only career start), provides depth at the Will. He's the only TSUN player to score a pair of defensive scores in a game since WWII, but apparently he didn't do enough to earn another start! Also at the Will is #7 Brandin Hawthorne (6-0, 214, Jr.), who started 5 games in the middle of the season, registering 9 tackles and an interception against Northwestern and a sack against Purdue. His 43 tackles include 6 TFLs.
LB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: TSUN LBs versus OSU LBs
Demens is a reliable tackler in the middle, and Ryan and Morgan have managed to fit into the Wolverines' aggressive schemes this year. They can have trouble getting off blocks, but they flow to the ball and get involved in a lot of gang tackles. For the Buckeyes, the LB play this year hasn't been up to tOSU's standards. There have been too many missed tackles, and the fact that the Andrew Sweat is questionable for The Game is a concern. He's the guy that helps everybody get into the proper positions, and that experience will be missed if he's not able to play. His replacement at Will, true freshmen Ryan Shazier, made a lot of plays all over the field against Penn State last week, but his inexperience can sometimes result in his not being in position.
Edge: Even
Secondary
LCB #18 Blake Countess (5-10, 176, Fr.)
SS #32 Jordan Kovacs (6-0, 197, Jr.)
FS #29 Troy Woolfolk (6-01, 191, Sr.)
CB # 8 J.T. Floyd (6-0, 185, Jr.)
The secondary is led by Jordan Kovacs, a player who does not have all the skill in the world, but who provides all out effort. He has started all games except Purdue (knee), has 60 tackles (42 solo) and has recorded 3 sacks. He was second in the Big Ten in total tackles in 2010, 17 of which were in The Game. He's made three key fourth down stops this year (including 2 vs. Northwestern), has 1 interception and 2 forced fumbles, and made the Watch List for the Lott IMPACT Trophy.
Woolfolk missed all of 2010, but has started 9 games this year, and has 27 tackles and 2 PBUs. He's their most experienced cover corner, although he has yet to register an interception. He's the least likely guy on the field to be sent on a blitz.
Countess is a true freshman who had 7 tackles (5 solo) against San Diego State, his first game with a lot of playing time. He has 6 passes broken-up (PBUs), 1 TFL, and forced a fumble against Minnesota, but he has not yet picked off a pass. Floyd has 39 tackles, and leads the team with 8 PBUs and two interceptions. He returned one of those picks for 43 yards against the Illini, and got the other one in the win over Notre Dame. He missed The Game last year with an ankle injury.
CB depth comes from #6 Raymon Taylor (5-10, 169, Fr.), #5 Courtney Avery (5-11, 173, So), and #17 Tony Anderson (5-11, 195, Sr.). Avery recorded the only interception of his career against Purdue. He's made 23 tackles, has 3 PBUs, and has recovered a pair of fumbles. The backups at safety include #30 Thomas Gordon (5-11, 208, So.), not to be confused with former safety Cam Gordon that's now a backup LB. Thomas has started 9 games this year, has 55 tackles, an interception vs. Eastern Michigan, and two forced fumbles. He's also tied for the NCAA lead in fumble recoveries with 4. Other safety depth is provided by #3 Marvin Robinson (6-2, 200, So.), and #14 Josh Furman (6-2, 208, rFr,).
DB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: TSUN DBs versus OSU DBs
TSUN has had coverage issues in their secondary for the past few seasons. This year, that has somewhat been masked by an aggressive approach that doesn't require them to stay on receivers as long, since they're giving opposing QBs less time to make a decision and throw. The high-risk approach can be beaten, but that's more easily accomplished with an experienced QB, which the Buckeyes are lacking. The Buckeyes have better coverage ability on defense, but don't have the type of offensive design and experience that can expose the weaknesses in TSUN's secondary. tOSU will get some chances at interceptions with the way Shoelace tosses up deep balls for grabs, and they must take advantage of those opportunities this week, including getting big return yardage after making the pick. The Buckeye safeties also need to take proper angles in order to avoid giving up big plays.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
Over the previous 3 seasons, Michigan was thought to be deficient in talent on the defensive side of the ball. After the way their defense has performed in 2011, that thinking needs to be re-evaluated. They have some talent on defense, but don't have many players that would be considered elite at their positions. But the change in their defensive schemes has made them one of the top-performing units in the country, especially on third down, but also in scoring defense. Thus, the overall defensive rating is greater than the sum of the individual parts.
Overall Defensive Rating: A-
2011 TSUN Wolverines Special Teams Preview
The Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor, Michigan (hopefully wearing full-body condoms) for their annual rivalry game with the M*ch*gan Scumsuckers. dUMb doesn't intimdate anyone with their special teams, statistically speaking. This is a part of the game that the Buckeyes could really use to win the game.
Special Teams' Stats (NCAA, dUMbGoBlow, OhioStateBuckeyes)
M*ch*gan
Punting
Wil Hagerup: 25 for 898 yards, 35.9 avg, 5 touchbacks, 5 inside 20
Matt Wile: 14 for 576 yards, 41.1 avg, 4 touchbacks, 4 inside 20
Team: 39 for 1474 yards, 37.8 avg, 9 touchbacks (113th Nationally)
Placekicking
Brenden Gibbons: 9-13 FGs (1 blocked), 47-48 PATs (69th Nationally)
Punt Returns
Jeremy Gallon: 19 for 192 yards, 10.1 avg, 32 long (18th Nationally)
Drew Dileo: 1 for 0 yards
Josh Furman: 1 for 6 yards
J.T. Floyd: 1 for 0 yards
Team: 22 for 198 yards, 9.0 avg, 32 long (51st Nationally)
Kickoff Returns
Martavious Odoms: 13 for 295 yards, 22.7 avg, 33 long (68th Nationally)
Vincent Smith: 7 for 129 yards, 18.4 avg, 24 long
Kelvin Grady: 3 for 57 yards, 19.0 avg, 25 long
Jeremy Gallon: 2 for 26 yards, 13.0 avg, 13 long
Kevin Koger: 1 for 8 yards
Team: 26 for 515 yards, 19.8 avg, 33 long (94th Nationally)
Punt Return Defense
17 for 153 yards, 9.0 avg (80th Nationally)
Kickoff Return Defense
23 for 458 yards, 19.91 avg (94th Nationally)
Ohio State
Punting:
Ben Buchanan: 62 for 2533 yards, 40.9 avg, 22 inside the 20, 1 blocked (51st Nationally)
Placekicking:
Drew Basil: 13-16 FGs, 30-31 PATs (43rd Nationally)
Punt Returns: (none meet the minimum number of returns to qualify for NCAA ranking)
Jordan Hall: 11 for 70 yards, 6.4 avg, 27 long
Chris Fields: 5 for 88 yards, 17.6 avg, 1 TD, 69 long
Corey Brown: 2 for 28 yards, 14.0 avg, 17 long
Devin Smith: 1 for 3 yards
Ryan Shazier: 1 for 25 yards
Team: 20 for 214 yards, 10.7 avg, 1 TD, 69 long (32nd Nationally)
Kickoff Returns: (none meet the minimum number of returns to qualify for NCAA ranking)
Jordan Hall: 19 for 543 yards, 28.6 avg, 90 long
Jaamal Berry: 7 for 150 yards, 21.40 avg, 28 long
Devin Smith: 4 for 86 yards, 21.4 avg, 28 long
Corey Brown: 1 for 44 yards
Chris Fields: 1 for 15 yards
Tony Jackson: 1 for 10 yards
Carlos Hyde: 2 for 47 yards, 23.5 avg
Team: 35 for 895 yards, 25.6 avg, 90 long (7th Nationally)
Punt Return Defense:
24 for 126 yards, 5.25 avg (30th Nationally)
Kickoff Return Defense:
42 for 765 yards, 18.21 avg, 10 touchbacks (11th Nationally)
M*ch*gan (scUMGoBlow)
Punter
#43 Will Hagerup (6-4, 225, Sr., Whitefish Bay HS, Milwaukee, WI)
#45 Matt Wile (6-2, 208, Fr., Francis Parker HS, San Diego, CA)
Placekicker
#34 Brenden Gibbons (6-1, 241, So., Cardinal Newman HS, West Palm Beach, FL)
#45 Matt Wile (6-2, 208, Fr., Francis Parker HS, San Diego, CA)
Kickoffs
#45 Matt Wile (6-2, 208, Fr., Francis Parker HS, San Diego, CA)
#46 Seth Broekhuizen (6-1, 195, So., Holland Christian HS, Holland, MI)
Punt Returners
#10 Jeremy Gallon (5-8, 185, So., Apopka HS, Apopka, FL)
#26 Drew Dileo (5-10, 172, So., Parkview Baptist HS, Greenwell Springs, LA)
#21 Junior Hemingway (6-1, 222, Sr., Conway HS, Conway, SC)
#9 Martavious Odoms (5-8, 173, Sr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
Kick Returners
#9 Martavious Odoms (5-8, 173, Sr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
#10 Jeremy Gallon (5-8, 185, So., Apopka HS, Apopka, FL)
#19 Kelvin Grady (5-10, 177, Sr., East Grand Rapids HS, Grand Rapids, MI)
#2 Vincent Smith (5-6, 172, Jr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
Long Snapper
#91 Tom Pomarico (6-4, 240, Sr., Lumen Christi HS, Jackson, MI)
#54 Jareth Glanda (6-3, 255, So., Brother Rice HS, Rochester Hills, MI)
Holder
#26 Drew Dileo (5-10, 172, So., Parkview Baptist HS, Greenwell Springs, LA)
#10 Jeremy Gallon (5-8, 185, So., Apopka HS, Apopka, FL)
Ohio State (Rivals)
Punter:
#17 Ben Buchanan (6-0, 195, So., Central HS, Westerville, OH)
#39 Derek Erwin (5-10, 203, Jr., Buckeye Central HS, Tiro, OH)
Place Kicker/Kickoffs:
#24 Drew Basil (6-1, 206, So., Chillicothe HS, Chillicothe, OH)
#20 Russel Doup (6-1, 180, Fr., Mt Vernon HS, Mt Vernon, OH)
Punt Returners:
#7 Jordan Hall (5-9, 195, Jr., Jeanette HS, Jeanette, PA)
#80 Chris Fields (6-0, 185, So., Harvey HS, Painesville, OH)
Kickoff Returners:
#7 Jordan Hall (5-9, 195, Jr., Jeanette HS, Jeanette, PA)
#34 Carlos Hyde (6-0, 238, So., Naples HS, Naples, FL)
Long Snapper:
#56 George Makridis (5-11, 236, So., Harding HS, Warren, OH)
#54 Bryce Haynes (6-4, 185, Fr., Pinecrest HS, Cumming, GA)
Holder:
#39 Derek Erwin (5-10, 203, Jr., Buckeye Central HS, Tiro, OH)
#14 Joe Bauserman (6-1, 233, Sr., Lincoln HS, Strasburg, VA)
Head-to-Head: Michigan Punt team vs. Ohio State Punt Return Team
Michigan has used 2 punters this year, Hagerup and Wile. Hagerup has had his problems, averaging only a little over 35 yards per punt. Wile has a better average, but with only 15 punts. The Wolverines punt return defense has been suspect as well, giving up 9 yards per return. The Buckeyes average almost 11 yards per return, have taken one all the way back for a touchdown and have had several other big returns.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Michigan Kickoff team vs. Ohio State Kickoff Return Team
The Blue's kickoff team has had a tough time of it this year, ranking 90th in the nation while giving up almost 20 yards per return. They will be facing an Ohio State return unit that continues to positively impact their games, averaging over 25 yards per return - a statistic bettered by only 6 other teams in the FBS. There is a lot of speed in the Buckeyes' return team.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Ohio State Punt team vs. Michigan Punt Return Team
Buchanon continues his workman-like year with a 41 yard average per punt. OSU's return defense has surrendered only 5.75 yards per return, and, more importantly, no big plays. Michigan's return team is headlined by sophomore Jeremy Gallon. The Apopka, Florida native has returned over 90% of the Wolverines punts and is averaging 10.1 per return to rank 18th nationally. He doesn't have much help, as only 3 other punts have been returned for only 6 yards. If the Buckeyes keep Gallon in check, they will certainly have the advantage here.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Ohio State Kickoff team vs. Michigan Kickoff Return Team
None of Michigan's kickoff returners has distinguished himself this year. Martavious Odoms has the best statistics: 13 returns for 295 yards, a 22.7 avg, to rank 68th Nationally. Vincent Smith has 7 returns for 129 yards. The Buckeyes' kickoff return defense is allowing only a little over 18 yards per return to rank 11th in the Nation. They must win this battle to keep Michigan from good starting field position.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Special Teams Analysis
This game is going to be a war. After 7 consecutive losses in the rivalry, Michigan smells a chance for victory. They will be on their home field with a chance for a New Year's Day (well, January 2nd) Bowl game. After 2 straight losses to teams they should have beaten, the Buckeyes are reeling. Big Special Teams play is imperative for the Buckeyes to emerge with their 8th straight victory in this storied rivalry. On paper, the Buckeyes enjoy an advantage in every phase of special teams play. They must win the battle of field position to come away with a much-coveted "W".
PredictionsFor younger fans, however, the rivalry has been one-sided enough it has grown somewhat stale. BCS bowls, national title games and the like may have replaced some of the luster of beating the Wolverines. It was a similar story to Michigan in the John Cooper era, where it was once famously proclaimed that Ohio State was no longer their #1 rival. But if any year is indicative of why this is a rivalry considered to be a One Game Season, this is the year. There is no BCS bowl. There is no National Title. Buckeye fans are not worried about where Kirk Herbstreit has them in the polls. This year has been filled with talk of NCAA violations, multiple suspensions of many key players, the early departure of the star QB, losses to teams the Buckeyes have had little trouble with in the recent past, and the loss of the very coach that spoiled everyone by owning Michigan. Just to name a few items. The Buckeyes enter the game with an interim and possibly departing coach, a roster full of players that weren't able to lay the full season, and a 6-5 record that includes only one major win for the entire year. But there is always the last game. That fateful Saturday in November where the results from the first 11 games (or 10...or 9...or 7...) are unimportant. Beat Michigan, and the season ends on a high note, Buckeye fans are rejoicing for another year, the Buckeyes gain a strong edge on regional recruiting, and the season is considered a success, because no season, NO season, that includes a win over Michigan is a failure. However, lose the game...and the 2011 Buckeyes will be a season that many will want to forget, which is a horrible way for any senior class to go out, and a bitter taste in the mouths of fans that will last for at least 364 days. So if there was EVER a season that was a One Game Season, 2011 is it.
If the Buckeyes are going to beat the Wolverines to salvage their season, they are going to have to stop an offense that enters the game rated in the top 35 nationally (434.5 YPG/ T33). Despite the Pro-Style background of Head Coach Brady Hoke, it is probably still not surprising given their personnel that Michigan have been more effective running the ball this year, ranking 12th at 236.1 yards per game. The passing game hasn't been good, but it hasn't been awful moving the ball (211.7 YPG, T86). Where the Wolverines have struggled is throwing INTs (15, T7 most in the country) and in general pass accuracy (52.6% completions, 106th nationally). Given Robinson's mobility, it is not surprising that they haven't given up too many sacks (14). At 33.6 points per game, Michigan has scored plenty of points to keep them in games over the course of the season (26th nationally). The Wolverines have mixed numbers when it comes to moving the chains, as they have a relatively low number of first downs on the year (219, 63rd) but have been able to move the chains respectably on third down (44.2%, T22). All in all, the Wolverine offense has been relatively good on the year, despite being turnover prone, and because of the number of big plays they make, they can pile up points in a hurry. It will be incumbent on the Buckeyes to get pressure on Robinson early and get him out of rhythm. If they can force him to scramble and create some turnovers, they can reproduce the last 2 games against him, where they controlled the field for significant portions of the game. However if Robinson gets going early and is able to hit a couple of downfield throws, then the long losing streak to the Buckeyes might finally come to an end.
Quarterbacks
QB #16 Denard Robinson (6-0, 195, JR, Deerfield Beach HS, Deerfield Beach, FL)
Robinson entered his junior year unsure what his role would be, given the Pro Style background of Coach Brady Hoke. However the staff has stuck with Robinson this year, and to their credit they have adapted their offense to his talents. As a result he has started every game and has pushed his consecutive starts streak to 24. Robinson is never going to be Peyton Manning in the backfield, so his ability to run, create space with his feet, and keep plays alive with his mobility to hit big throws downfield have been on display. He has just 2 games where he has topped 200 yards passing, and he actually topped 300 both times: Notre Dame, where he led the big comeback with 338 passing yards on just 11 completions with 4 TDs and 3 INTs, and Northwestern, where he led another 2nd half comeback with 337 yards on 17 completions with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. He's only attempted more than 25 passes in a game 2 times, against Northwestern (26) and Iowa (37), so when the Wolverine offense is working the way they want, he will throw it about 18-20 times. The Northwestern and Notre Dame games are indicative of the fact that when he throws for a lot of yards, he is prone to throwing INTs. In fact he has thrown at least one INT in 6 straight games, and in 9 of the 10 games he has played in (note: the stats from the season opener against Western Michigan do not count officially, so will not be referenced here). He has also failed to complete 50% of his throws 5/10 times this season, so he is prone to forcing the ball downfield and losing accuracy on the run. In contrast to his inconsistent throwing, Robinson is often touted at the beginning of the season as a Heisman candidate for his playmaking ability with the ball in his hands, and he has made plenty of those plays this year. He has topped 100 yards rushing 4 times (Notre Dame: 108; Eastern Michigan: 198; SDSU: 200; Minnesota: 117) and has scored at least 1 rushing TD in 9 of his 10 games. He had a recent stretch where he carried the ball less, but he had 23 carries for 83 yards and 2 TDs against Nebraska last week as he led Michigan to their 9th win. Robinson has great speed and a bevy of moves that make it very difficult for a single defender to tackle him in the open field. As a result, he is a threat to break a big run any time he turns upfield. Robinson has played 2 previous games against the Buckeyes. In 2009 in a limited role, he was 2 of 4 for 3 yards passing, and had 10 carries for 31 yards as Michigan lost 21-10. Last year as the unquestioned starter, he had 18 carries for 105 yards, but was just 8 of 18 passing for 87 yards as Michigan got blown out 37-7. This year is his best chance to lead the Wolverines to a season-ending victory, and if he can get into a rhythm early, he may be able to do it.
The backup is sophomore Devin Gardner (#7), a big kid (6-4, 205) who has seen action in the past 7 games. Though he is not yet ready to run the full offense, he has a strong arm and has thrown for 176 yards, a TD and an INT on the season. He is not nearly the rushing threat that Robinson is, though he did have 39 rushing yards against Minnesota and scored a TD against Northwestern.
QB Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan QB versus OSU QB
Robinson: 110/207 (53.1%), 1791 yards, 15 TDs, 14 INTs, 136.2 rating; 174/947, 14 TDs
Miller: 53/109 (48.6%), 762 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs, 129.1 rating; 128/595, 6 TDs
Robinson is always deadly on the ground, but his passing numbers have regressed such that he has a lower completion %, less TD passes, more INTs, and more sacks than a year ago. The teams that have beaten Michigan this season (Michigan State, Iowa) basically physically beat him up and dared him to throw the ball downfield. They key to getting to Robinson seems to be to make him run where he doesn't want to go, hit him some, and get more than one defender around him. The linebacking corps is key to all of those those, and the Buckeyes don't have the speed or playmakers that they have had in the recent past. Shazier however has the speed and athletic ability to track Robinson, so his play will likely be key to the outcome of the game. The front 4 will also need to try and keep him in the pocket as best they can, to keep him from opening it up on the perimeter. Miller is a work in progress and last week it was evident that he also has a long way to go in the passing game. The return of Posey helps him some, but he still misses too many receivers and looks to run too quickly at times. He doesn't turn the ball over a ton but he needs work on accuracy and reading defenses. He like Robinson is a threat to break a long run at virtually any time. The backups for both teams are relatively inexperienced, though Gardner has been getting some work this season as a potential QB of the future.
Edge: Michigan
Running Backs
TB #28 Fitzgerald Toussaint (5-10, 195, SO, Liberty HS, Youngstown, OH)
FB #33 Stephen Hopkins (6-0, 228, SO, Marcus HS, Double Oak, TX)
Toussaint is relatively new on the scene, with just 8 carries last season and not getting a carry until week 4 this season. At that point he got 11 carries for 46 yards and a TD against Eastern Michigan, and he has seen his role slowly expand since then to where he has been the feature back over the previous month, cracking the 100 yard barrier 3 times and scoring 5 TDs in the last 3 games. The Ohio product is not especially big but he is fast and has a nice set of cutback moves. Hist first big game was against Minnesota where he had 108 yards and a TD on just 11 carries, and over the past 4 games he had 170 yards and 2 TDs against Purdue, 192 yards and a TD against Illinois, and 138 yards and 2 TDs against Nebraska. Interestingly the 2 games the Wolverines have lost are the 2 where he has been least successful over the past 2 months, with just 2 carries for 4 yards against Michigan State and 16 carries for 58 yards against Iowa. Expect a heavy workload for Toussaint in this game, as he will likely be a key to taking some pressure off of Robinson early. He is little help to him in the passing game, however, with just 4 receptions for 8 yards.
To win the job Toussaint had to pass 2 program veterans, who are now the backups. Junior Vincent Smith (#2) is a small, fleet-footed runner (5-6, 172) who is still utilized regularly and is a significant threat in the passing game. He has made just one start (Minnesota) but has been a regular contributor. Smith's season highlights include 9 carries for 118 yards against Eastern Michigan, a pair of rushing TDs back-to-back against SDSU and Minnesota, and receiving TDs against Notre Dame and Minnesota. He has 10 receptions and averages almost 15 yards a catch, so he is dangerous on screens and swing passes, where he can be difficult to find or tackle. Last year he had just 17 yards on 8 carries against the Buckeyes, though in 2009 he had 8 carries for 23 yards ajnd 3 receptions for 28 yards and a TD, which would be a line that the Wolverines would likely be happy with again. The other backup, senior Michael Shaw (#20) has seen his production diminish severely this season after rushing for 402 yards and 9 TDs last year. He had 60 yards against Minnesota and 56 with a TD against Purdue, but he has cracked 5 yards rushing just 1 other time and has started just one game (Notre Dame). He entered 2009's Ohio State game with plenty of interesting pregame comments but had just 7 carries for 7 yards, and followed that with a more respectable 8 carries for 52 yards and a TD last year.
Hopkins is a program veteran and a good blocking FB. He doesn't carry it much (10 for 40 yards) and doesn't catch passes a lot, but he is good at blocking for the running game, which is his primary responsibility.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan RB versus OSU RB
Toussaint: 143/811 yards, 7 TDs, 5.7 YPC; 4 rec/8 yards, 1 TD, 2.0 YPR
Smith: 46/282 yards, 2 TDs, 6.1 YPC; 10 rec/142 yards, 2 TDs, 14.2 YPR
Shaw: 27/145 yards, 2 TDs, 5.4 YPC; 1 rec/12 yards, 0 TDs, 12.0 YPR
Herron: 107/556 yards, 2 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 3 rec/17 yards, 0 TDs, 5.7 YPR
Hyde: 101/549 yards, 6 TDs, 5.4 YPC; 9 rec/65 yards, 0 TDs, 7.2 YPR
Hall: 95/381 yards, 2 TDs, 4.0 YPC; 5 rec/70 yards, 2 TDs, 14.0 YPR
Both teams have seen flux in their running back situations this year, with Toussaint eventually emerging as Michigan's go-to option and Herron returning from suspension midseason to now lead the team in rushing. Herron is clearly the best and most polished of this group, and he hasn't had an entire season of pounding, so he will likely still be fresh for this game. He is likely the single most important factor for the Buckeyes, because he has plenty of experience in these games and will need to heavily produce if the Buckeyes are going to win. The reserves are interesting stories, as Hyde played well in Herron's absence but had some costly turnovers last week, while Smith is not an every down back but brings expolsivity and dynamic playmaking to the passing game as well. Shaw has lots of experience, both in general and against the Buckeyes, and the Wolverines might turn to him more this week despite sparse production in recent weeks. The FBs are good blockers for both teams. One thing is certain, and that is that whichever team can take pressure off of their QB will be in prime position to win the game. That said, Herron is the most polished and most successful of this group so far, and he will want to end his star-crossed career with one final moment of glory. Toussaint could be an emerging superstar, and this game will tell a lot as to whether that is the case or not.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #12 Roy Roundtree (6-0, 177, JR, Trotwood-Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
WR #21 Junior Hemmingway (6-1, 222, SR, Conway HS, Conway, SC)
Roundtree and Hemmingway have both been around the program for a while and have started a combined 56 games, so they bring experience and leadership to the offense. Hemmingway is a big target and is the leading receiver this season. He could surpass his 2010 totals of 32 receptions for 593 yards with a good game on Saturday. He has had some good games for the Wolverines this season, headlined by the 3 reception, 165 yard performance against Notre Dame and his 5 catch, 124 yard effort against Northwestern. He has been a consistent contributor, catching between 2 and 5 passes most games despite the passing game as a whole being very up and down. In his entire career, he has just 1 catch for 5 yards against Ohio State, so he is doubtlessly ultra-motivated for the game Saturday as it will be his last shot to make an impact in the series. Roundtree led the team in receiving in 2009 and 2010, and he nearly cracked the 1000 yard barrier last year with 72 receptions for 935 yards and 7 TDs. He has been almost an afterthought this year, however, as he has only 15 receptions on the season. He caught 3 passes for 83 yards against Northwestern and then 4 for 66 and a TD against Michigan State, but that has been about the extent of his production, as he topped 50 yards receiving just one other time and hasn't caught more than 2 passes in any other game either. He has game-breaking speed and runs decent routes, but he just hasn't had the chances that he had last year. He had 5 receptions for 43 yards last year against the Buckeyes and torched the secondary for 116 yards on 9 catches in 2009, so it would not be a surprise at all to see him play a prominent role in the game on Saturday.
The primary reserve making a big impact for the Wolverines is sophomore burner Jeremy Gallon (#10), who is second on the team with 26 receptions. He has been a consistent contributor throughout the year, highlighted by 2 receptions for 78 yards and a TD against ND, 5 for 73 and a TD against NW, 3 for 79 against Purdue and 3 for 34 and a TD last week against the Huskers. He has great speed and is a star on the rise as he learns the intricacies of route running and body leverage. The Wolverines do not go a great deal deeper than that, though senior and program veteran Martavious Odoms (#9) has 5 receptions in the past 3 games and may play more this weekend because of his experience. He has started the past 2 games so he is likely to be a regular on the field Saturday. His OSU game career consists of 5 receptions for 37 yards as a freshman in 2008. Otherwise senior Kelvin Grady (#19) has barely seen the field despite starting 3 games, and sophomores Jeremy Jackson (#17) and Drew Dileo (#26) will catch an occasional pass.
WR Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan WRs versus OSU WRs
Hemmingway: 29 catches, 554 yards, 1 TD, 19.1 YPR
Gallon: 26 catches, 425 yards, 3 TDs, 16.3 YPR
Roundtree: 15 catches, 324 yards, 2 TDs, 21.6 YPR
Smith: 11 catches, 241 yards, 4 TDs, 21.9 YPR
Brown: 12 catches, 129 yards, 0 TDs, 10.8 YPR
Fields: 7 catches, 101 yards, 0 TDs, 14.4 YPR
The Wolverines have some quality talent here, but the general regression of the passing game has reduced all of their production. Roundtree in particular has fallen way off, though Hemmingway has stepped up his game and will likely lead the team in receiving and match last year's totals. The team also has some veterans like Odoms and Grady, but there have been so many changes at Michigan and so much upheaval in the passing game that it is little wonder that they don't have huge stats as their careers wind down. One wonders how things might have been different for this group had Ryan Mallet stayed and a more traditional offensive scheme employed over the past 3 years. In any event, the Buckeye receivers are growing slowly and gaining valuable experience, but they have had trouble creating separation and catching the ball all season. Posey's return adds a spark to the offense, and he looked decent last week, but it doesn't appear that the passing game will make great strides until next season regardless. Michigan has the depth and experience edge, and in general they are more dangerous here.
Edge: Michigan
Tight Ends
TE #86 Kevin Koger (6-4, 258, SR, Whitmer HS, Toledo, OH)
Koger seems like he has been around forever (29 career starts), and he is having another good season, tied for third in receptions and tied for the team lead in TD receptions. His numbers are very comparable to the previous 2 seasons and he has turned in a very solid career at Michigan. He is a decent receiver and a good blocker, with good size and good technique. He's never had much luck against Ohio State in the receiving department, with 1 catch for 3 yards last year being the sum total of his production. He does have a penchant for getting open, however, and if he had more consistent hands he would likely be a 25-30 reception TE. His backup is fellow senior Steve Watson (#84; 6-4, 255) who is strong and blocks well. He is a good short-yardage player.
TE Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan TE versus OSU TE
Koger: 15 catches, 179 yards, 3 TDs, 11.9 YPR
Watson: 1 catch, 9 yards, 1 TD, 9.0 YPR
Stoneburner: 13 catches, 157 yards, 7 TDs, 12.1 YPR
Fragel: 4 catches, 44 yards, 0 TDs, 11.0 YPR
Koger has had a nice career at Michigan and the Wolverines are deep and experienced, with 3 upperclassmen on the depth chart. Koger is an inconsistent receiver who has had his share of drops, but he is a good blocker and cannot be ignored over the middle. Stoneburner finally got into the receiving act again last week and this is yet another year of Buckeye fans saying "What if" with regards to the TE in the passing game. With 7 TD receptions he has been the most valuable weapon in the passing game and he will be an important target this weekend. Fragel is a decent blocking TE.
Edge: Ohio State
Offensive Line
LT #77 Taylor Lewan (6-8, 302, SO, Chaparral HS, Scottsdale, AZ)
LG #52 Ricky Barnum (6-3, 292, JR, Lake Gibson HS, Lakeland, FL)
C #50 David Molk (6-2, 286, SR, Lemont Township HS, Lemont, IL)
RG #65 Patrick Omameh (6-4, 300, JR, St. Francis DeSales HS, Columbus, OH)
RT #72 Mark Huyge (6-6, 302, SR, Catholic Central HS, Wyoming, MI)
The Wolverine line has traditionally been a big, physical line made up of multiple future NFL players. This year's line may not quite live up to either billing, as many are left over from the Rodriguez era, but the line has been by and large in tact all season and the run blocking in particular has been good. The line is anchored along the interior by Omameh and Molk, who have started every game this season and are second and third on the current Michigan consecutive starts list with 27 and 24, respectively. Omameh was Academic All-B1G last year and has played guard and tackle, so he is a smart player with a good understanding of the line. Molk is a bit undersized and has battled injuries in the past but has been a fixture on the line for the past 2 seasons. He is a team captain with 40 career starts who was named All-B1G last year and is a prime candidate to repeat on the first team this year. The tackle spots have also been stable, with Lewan and Huyge starting every game this season. Lewan has a good wingspan and has had a good season thus far, and will be a candidate for postseason conference honors. Huyge is similarly well built with good lateral movement and has started games at both tackle spots and also at guard in his career, so he versatile and valuable. The LG spot is the only one where there has been any flux. Barnum has made only 3 starts at the spot earlier in the year, but he is listed at the top of the chart this week.
The 2-deep depth chart is sparse and features only a few players with game experience. Sophomore Michael Schofield (#75) is the primary backup at both tackle spots and has started 8 games at LG this season. He will likely see the field quite a bit on Saturday. The guard spots are both manned by junior Elliot Mealer (#57), who plays sparingly on offense but quite a bit on special teams. In the middle, junior Rocko Khoury (#63) plays sparingly.
OL Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Michigan OL versus OSU OL
The Wolverines have had quite a bit of consistency on the line this season, and they have gotten good play in general. They have not allowed a lot of sacks and they have established one of the nation's best rushing attacks. Molk is the leader of the group and has received his share of acclaim, but players like Omameh and Lewan have also had good seasons. LG could be a weaker spot for the Buckeyes to attack. The Buckeye offensive line has undergone a lot of changes this season due to injuries and suspensions, and they have not been able to provide Miller with the type of protection that a young QB needs. The running game has been decent but even that has been less impressive than in past seasons. Depth is a big concern for both teams, and for Michigan in particular once they get past Schofield.
Edge: Michigan
Overall Offensive Analysis
Overall the Wolverines appear to still be a "risk/reward" offense, and likely will be as long as Robinson is at the helm. When he is good, as he was in leading the comeback victory over Notre Dame, there are few defenses that can stop him and there are few players who can take over a game more single-handedly. However when he is off, he can throw some terrible passes and take some big losses. Michigan State and Iowa employed a very physical style against him with great success...more finesse defenses like Northwestern have had no luck at all. The Buckeyes will have to get pressure on him and contain him in the pocket, which will likely make Shazier a central figure. Robinson has some decent targets downfield, and it will be important for the Buckeye secondary to stay with their keys, because if they break off to chase Robinson he will fire a late pass downfield for a big gain. Roundtree is especially dangerous in that situation, and Hemmingway has come up with some big first downs in those situations as well. The running game with Toussaint is solid and Smith adds multiple dimensions when he is in the game. The line is decent but physical fronts can have some success, as they are not as big as traditional Wolverine lines over the years. Despite the good supporting cast, the game probably comes down to whether the Buckeyes can disrupt Robinson. If they can, they can get some turnovers and force some bad throws. If they can't, and Robinson has a big day, it is hard to see how the Buckeyes can stay in a shootout. With the offensive struggles, the Buckeye defense enters this game with more pressure on them than in past seasons. If they give up 3 TDs, it is unclear if the offense can match that, so the D will have to play their best game of the season and force Robinson to beat them throwing the ball.
Overall Offensive Rating: B-
2011 TSUN Wolverines Defensive Preview
The hiring of DC Greg Mattison for $750,000 a year has proven to be wise investment for Brady Hoke. Mattison had been the DC at TSUN in 1995-96 when Hoke was the DE coach. Mattison was at Notre Dame from 1997-2004, and then he was the Co-DC at Florida for 3 years, including their BCS win in the 2006 season. He became the LB coach for the Baltimore Ravens in 2008, and was the Ravens DC the past two years.
Dumping the 3-3-5 run under RichRod and Greg Robinson, TSUN now uses an aggressive 4-3 scheme, and brings a lot of pressure in third down situations. And the improvement is readily seen by looking at the numbers.
After allowing 35.2 points per game in 2010, Michigan's defense is allowing 15.6 points per game through 11 games in 2011, ranking 2nd in the Big Ten and 6th in the nation.
U-M has improved from 108th in total defense in 2010 (447.9 ypg) to 14th in 2011, allowing 312.6 yards per game. U-M has forced 26 turnovers in 2011, including multiple turnovers in nine of 11 games. The Wolverines' 26 turnovers rank 1st in the Big Ten and tied for 11th in the FBS. Michigan ranks 2nd in the nation in red zone defense (21-32, 66%).
Defensive Line
DE #88 Craig Roh (6-5, 269, Jr.)
DT #39 Will Heininger (6-6, 295, Sr.)
DT #68 Mike Martin (6-2, 304, Sr.)
DE #53 Ryan Van Bergen (6-6, 288, Sr.)
The starting unit has enjoyed relatively good health this season. Martin, Roh, and Heininger have started every game, and Van Bergen has started every contest except Purdue. At the start of the season, Heininger was on the outside and Van Bergen was a DT, but they changed positions after Notre Dame in week two. Heininger had 4 tackles in the loss to Sparty, including 2 TFLs. He's somewhat of a plugger that benefits from all of the attention that Martin draws.
Martin has a good motor and when he's healthy represents the line's top defender. With legitimate size and a good first step, Martin is the type of player that commands respect from opposing fans, as Brandon Graham did a couple of years back. Martin made the Watch Lists for both the Bednarik and Rotary Lombardi Awards this season. He has 47 tackles, 5.5 for loss with 3 sacks this year, and recorded a safety against Purdue (the only safety for TSUN in more than 2,926 days).
Van Bergen provides the line with a consistent presence, having started every game but one for the last three seasons, and made the Ted Hendricks Award Watch List this year. While he's not a speed rush guy, he does demonstrate ability to get behind the LOS with regularity and has good hands, making him a threat to knock down passes (9 career PBUs, 3 in 2011) if he can't get to the QB. He has 34 tackles this season, 10 for loss and 4.5 sacks. He's been coming on of late, with 5 TFLs, including 3.5 sacks, in the last 2 games. His 7 tackles and 2.5 sacks in the Illini game earned him B1G Co-Defensive Player of the Week. He also had 3 TFLs in The Game last year.
Rounding out the line is Roh, who has started 36 straight games, the most on the team. Roh has record 29 tackles, 8 for loss with 4 sacks. Roh is the line's quickest player and has 1 forced fumble this year.
Reserve DEs include #55 Jibreel Black (6-2, 260, So.), #67 Nathan Brink (6-5, 263, So.), and #57 Frank Clark (6-2, 228, Fr.). Inside depth comes from #73 Will Campbell (6-5, 322, Jr.), and #76 Quinton Washington (6-4, 302, So.). Of the reserves, Campbell is the one worth noting. Somewhat of a career underachiever, he could see more playing time if tOSU is having success running up the middle.
DL Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: TSUN DL versus OSU DL
Michigan's line is their best unit among the defensive groups. Mike Martin is a standout whose non-stop effort is admirable. Roh and Van Bergen have been solid at the DE spots. The Buckeyes have two excellent players in John Simon and Johnathan Hankins, but the injury to Nathan Williams has left tOSU without a consistent speed rusher from the D-Line. Based on productivity, the nod goes to the home team here.
Edge: TSUN
Linebackers
SLB #90 Jake Ryan (6-3, 230, rFr.)
MLB #25 Kenny Demens (6-1, 248, Jr.)
WLB #8 Desmond Morgan (6-1, 220, Fr.)
Demens is the team's leading tackler with 78 stops, 43 being solo. He also has 4.5 TFLs (including 2.5 sacks) and 1 forced fumble. He had 13 tackles in their bowl loss to Mississippi State last season, and made 12 stops against Notre Dame earlier this year. He has good size, has started every game, and is a reliable player in the middle of the defense.
Ryan has started every game except Notre Dame and Northwestern, since he's the LB that gets removed for their nickel package. Ryan is something of a ball-hawk, and has 27 tackles including 6.5 TFLs, two fumble recoveries, and one he forced last week against Nebraska. Morgan won the starting Will spot by outperforming 5th year senior Brandon Herron. He had a team-leading 9 tackles in the Purdue game, and 8 more against the Illini.
Depth at the Sam is provided by #4 Cam Gordon (6-3, 222, So.), a former WR who missed the first half of this season with a back injury. He played both SS and Sam last year and got 3 interceptions, but his playing time is down this season. The middle is backed up by #42 J.B. Fitzgerald (6-3, 241, Sr.), who sees limited action behind Demens.
#58 Brandon Herron (6-2, 221, Sr.) who had a 94-yard pick-6 and a fumble recovery for a TD in the Western Michigan game (his only career start), provides depth at the Will. He's the only TSUN player to score a pair of defensive scores in a game since WWII, but apparently he didn't do enough to earn another start! Also at the Will is #7 Brandin Hawthorne (6-0, 214, Jr.), who started 5 games in the middle of the season, registering 9 tackles and an interception against Northwestern and a sack against Purdue. His 43 tackles include 6 TFLs.
LB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: TSUN LBs versus OSU LBs
Demens is a reliable tackler in the middle, and Ryan and Morgan have managed to fit into the Wolverines' aggressive schemes this year. They can have trouble getting off blocks, but they flow to the ball and get involved in a lot of gang tackles. For the Buckeyes, the LB play this year hasn't been up to tOSU's standards. There have been too many missed tackles, and the fact that the Andrew Sweat is questionable for The Game is a concern. He's the guy that helps everybody get into the proper positions, and that experience will be missed if he's not able to play. His replacement at Will, true freshmen Ryan Shazier, made a lot of plays all over the field against Penn State last week, but his inexperience can sometimes result in his not being in position.
Edge: Even
Secondary
LCB #18 Blake Countess (5-10, 176, Fr.)
SS #32 Jordan Kovacs (6-0, 197, Jr.)
FS #29 Troy Woolfolk (6-01, 191, Sr.)
CB # 8 J.T. Floyd (6-0, 185, Jr.)
The secondary is led by Jordan Kovacs, a player who does not have all the skill in the world, but who provides all out effort. He has started all games except Purdue (knee), has 60 tackles (42 solo) and has recorded 3 sacks. He was second in the Big Ten in total tackles in 2010, 17 of which were in The Game. He's made three key fourth down stops this year (including 2 vs. Northwestern), has 1 interception and 2 forced fumbles, and made the Watch List for the Lott IMPACT Trophy.
Woolfolk missed all of 2010, but has started 9 games this year, and has 27 tackles and 2 PBUs. He's their most experienced cover corner, although he has yet to register an interception. He's the least likely guy on the field to be sent on a blitz.
Countess is a true freshman who had 7 tackles (5 solo) against San Diego State, his first game with a lot of playing time. He has 6 passes broken-up (PBUs), 1 TFL, and forced a fumble against Minnesota, but he has not yet picked off a pass. Floyd has 39 tackles, and leads the team with 8 PBUs and two interceptions. He returned one of those picks for 43 yards against the Illini, and got the other one in the win over Notre Dame. He missed The Game last year with an ankle injury.
CB depth comes from #6 Raymon Taylor (5-10, 169, Fr.), #5 Courtney Avery (5-11, 173, So), and #17 Tony Anderson (5-11, 195, Sr.). Avery recorded the only interception of his career against Purdue. He's made 23 tackles, has 3 PBUs, and has recovered a pair of fumbles. The backups at safety include #30 Thomas Gordon (5-11, 208, So.), not to be confused with former safety Cam Gordon that's now a backup LB. Thomas has started 9 games this year, has 55 tackles, an interception vs. Eastern Michigan, and two forced fumbles. He's also tied for the NCAA lead in fumble recoveries with 4. Other safety depth is provided by #3 Marvin Robinson (6-2, 200, So.), and #14 Josh Furman (6-2, 208, rFr,).
DB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: TSUN DBs versus OSU DBs
TSUN has had coverage issues in their secondary for the past few seasons. This year, that has somewhat been masked by an aggressive approach that doesn't require them to stay on receivers as long, since they're giving opposing QBs less time to make a decision and throw. The high-risk approach can be beaten, but that's more easily accomplished with an experienced QB, which the Buckeyes are lacking. The Buckeyes have better coverage ability on defense, but don't have the type of offensive design and experience that can expose the weaknesses in TSUN's secondary. tOSU will get some chances at interceptions with the way Shoelace tosses up deep balls for grabs, and they must take advantage of those opportunities this week, including getting big return yardage after making the pick. The Buckeye safeties also need to take proper angles in order to avoid giving up big plays.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
Over the previous 3 seasons, Michigan was thought to be deficient in talent on the defensive side of the ball. After the way their defense has performed in 2011, that thinking needs to be re-evaluated. They have some talent on defense, but don't have many players that would be considered elite at their positions. But the change in their defensive schemes has made them one of the top-performing units in the country, especially on third down, but also in scoring defense. Thus, the overall defensive rating is greater than the sum of the individual parts.
Overall Defensive Rating: A-
2011 TSUN Wolverines Special Teams Preview
The Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor, Michigan (hopefully wearing full-body condoms) for their annual rivalry game with the M*ch*gan Scumsuckers. dUMb doesn't intimdate anyone with their special teams, statistically speaking. This is a part of the game that the Buckeyes could really use to win the game.
Special Teams' Stats (NCAA, dUMbGoBlow, OhioStateBuckeyes)
M*ch*gan
Punting
Wil Hagerup: 25 for 898 yards, 35.9 avg, 5 touchbacks, 5 inside 20
Matt Wile: 14 for 576 yards, 41.1 avg, 4 touchbacks, 4 inside 20
Team: 39 for 1474 yards, 37.8 avg, 9 touchbacks (113th Nationally)
Placekicking
Brenden Gibbons: 9-13 FGs (1 blocked), 47-48 PATs (69th Nationally)
Punt Returns
Jeremy Gallon: 19 for 192 yards, 10.1 avg, 32 long (18th Nationally)
Drew Dileo: 1 for 0 yards
Josh Furman: 1 for 6 yards
J.T. Floyd: 1 for 0 yards
Team: 22 for 198 yards, 9.0 avg, 32 long (51st Nationally)
Kickoff Returns
Martavious Odoms: 13 for 295 yards, 22.7 avg, 33 long (68th Nationally)
Vincent Smith: 7 for 129 yards, 18.4 avg, 24 long
Kelvin Grady: 3 for 57 yards, 19.0 avg, 25 long
Jeremy Gallon: 2 for 26 yards, 13.0 avg, 13 long
Kevin Koger: 1 for 8 yards
Team: 26 for 515 yards, 19.8 avg, 33 long (94th Nationally)
Punt Return Defense
17 for 153 yards, 9.0 avg (80th Nationally)
Kickoff Return Defense
23 for 458 yards, 19.91 avg (94th Nationally)
Ohio State
Punting:
Ben Buchanan: 62 for 2533 yards, 40.9 avg, 22 inside the 20, 1 blocked (51st Nationally)
Placekicking:
Drew Basil: 13-16 FGs, 30-31 PATs (43rd Nationally)
Punt Returns: (none meet the minimum number of returns to qualify for NCAA ranking)
Jordan Hall: 11 for 70 yards, 6.4 avg, 27 long
Chris Fields: 5 for 88 yards, 17.6 avg, 1 TD, 69 long
Corey Brown: 2 for 28 yards, 14.0 avg, 17 long
Devin Smith: 1 for 3 yards
Ryan Shazier: 1 for 25 yards
Team: 20 for 214 yards, 10.7 avg, 1 TD, 69 long (32nd Nationally)
Kickoff Returns: (none meet the minimum number of returns to qualify for NCAA ranking)
Jordan Hall: 19 for 543 yards, 28.6 avg, 90 long
Jaamal Berry: 7 for 150 yards, 21.40 avg, 28 long
Devin Smith: 4 for 86 yards, 21.4 avg, 28 long
Corey Brown: 1 for 44 yards
Chris Fields: 1 for 15 yards
Tony Jackson: 1 for 10 yards
Carlos Hyde: 2 for 47 yards, 23.5 avg
Team: 35 for 895 yards, 25.6 avg, 90 long (7th Nationally)
Punt Return Defense:
24 for 126 yards, 5.25 avg (30th Nationally)
Kickoff Return Defense:
42 for 765 yards, 18.21 avg, 10 touchbacks (11th Nationally)
M*ch*gan (scUMGoBlow)
Punter
#43 Will Hagerup (6-4, 225, Sr., Whitefish Bay HS, Milwaukee, WI)
#45 Matt Wile (6-2, 208, Fr., Francis Parker HS, San Diego, CA)
Placekicker
#34 Brenden Gibbons (6-1, 241, So., Cardinal Newman HS, West Palm Beach, FL)
#45 Matt Wile (6-2, 208, Fr., Francis Parker HS, San Diego, CA)
Kickoffs
#45 Matt Wile (6-2, 208, Fr., Francis Parker HS, San Diego, CA)
#46 Seth Broekhuizen (6-1, 195, So., Holland Christian HS, Holland, MI)
Punt Returners
#10 Jeremy Gallon (5-8, 185, So., Apopka HS, Apopka, FL)
#26 Drew Dileo (5-10, 172, So., Parkview Baptist HS, Greenwell Springs, LA)
#21 Junior Hemingway (6-1, 222, Sr., Conway HS, Conway, SC)
#9 Martavious Odoms (5-8, 173, Sr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
Kick Returners
#9 Martavious Odoms (5-8, 173, Sr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
#10 Jeremy Gallon (5-8, 185, So., Apopka HS, Apopka, FL)
#19 Kelvin Grady (5-10, 177, Sr., East Grand Rapids HS, Grand Rapids, MI)
#2 Vincent Smith (5-6, 172, Jr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
Long Snapper
#91 Tom Pomarico (6-4, 240, Sr., Lumen Christi HS, Jackson, MI)
#54 Jareth Glanda (6-3, 255, So., Brother Rice HS, Rochester Hills, MI)
Holder
#26 Drew Dileo (5-10, 172, So., Parkview Baptist HS, Greenwell Springs, LA)
#10 Jeremy Gallon (5-8, 185, So., Apopka HS, Apopka, FL)
Ohio State (Rivals)
Punter:
#17 Ben Buchanan (6-0, 195, So., Central HS, Westerville, OH)
#39 Derek Erwin (5-10, 203, Jr., Buckeye Central HS, Tiro, OH)
Place Kicker/Kickoffs:
#24 Drew Basil (6-1, 206, So., Chillicothe HS, Chillicothe, OH)
#20 Russel Doup (6-1, 180, Fr., Mt Vernon HS, Mt Vernon, OH)
Punt Returners:
#7 Jordan Hall (5-9, 195, Jr., Jeanette HS, Jeanette, PA)
#80 Chris Fields (6-0, 185, So., Harvey HS, Painesville, OH)
Kickoff Returners:
#7 Jordan Hall (5-9, 195, Jr., Jeanette HS, Jeanette, PA)
#34 Carlos Hyde (6-0, 238, So., Naples HS, Naples, FL)
Long Snapper:
#56 George Makridis (5-11, 236, So., Harding HS, Warren, OH)
#54 Bryce Haynes (6-4, 185, Fr., Pinecrest HS, Cumming, GA)
Holder:
#39 Derek Erwin (5-10, 203, Jr., Buckeye Central HS, Tiro, OH)
#14 Joe Bauserman (6-1, 233, Sr., Lincoln HS, Strasburg, VA)
Head-to-Head: Michigan Punt team vs. Ohio State Punt Return Team
Michigan has used 2 punters this year, Hagerup and Wile. Hagerup has had his problems, averaging only a little over 35 yards per punt. Wile has a better average, but with only 15 punts. The Wolverines punt return defense has been suspect as well, giving up 9 yards per return. The Buckeyes average almost 11 yards per return, have taken one all the way back for a touchdown and have had several other big returns.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Michigan Kickoff team vs. Ohio State Kickoff Return Team
The Blue's kickoff team has had a tough time of it this year, ranking 90th in the nation while giving up almost 20 yards per return. They will be facing an Ohio State return unit that continues to positively impact their games, averaging over 25 yards per return - a statistic bettered by only 6 other teams in the FBS. There is a lot of speed in the Buckeyes' return team.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Ohio State Punt team vs. Michigan Punt Return Team
Buchanon continues his workman-like year with a 41 yard average per punt. OSU's return defense has surrendered only 5.75 yards per return, and, more importantly, no big plays. Michigan's return team is headlined by sophomore Jeremy Gallon. The Apopka, Florida native has returned over 90% of the Wolverines punts and is averaging 10.1 per return to rank 18th nationally. He doesn't have much help, as only 3 other punts have been returned for only 6 yards. If the Buckeyes keep Gallon in check, they will certainly have the advantage here.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Ohio State Kickoff team vs. Michigan Kickoff Return Team
None of Michigan's kickoff returners has distinguished himself this year. Martavious Odoms has the best statistics: 13 returns for 295 yards, a 22.7 avg, to rank 68th Nationally. Vincent Smith has 7 returns for 129 yards. The Buckeyes' kickoff return defense is allowing only a little over 18 yards per return to rank 11th in the Nation. They must win this battle to keep Michigan from good starting field position.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Special Teams Analysis
This game is going to be a war. After 7 consecutive losses in the rivalry, Michigan smells a chance for victory. They will be on their home field with a chance for a New Year's Day (well, January 2nd) Bowl game. After 2 straight losses to teams they should have beaten, the Buckeyes are reeling. Big Special Teams play is imperative for the Buckeyes to emerge with their 8th straight victory in this storied rivalry. On paper, the Buckeyes enjoy an advantage in every phase of special teams play. They must win the battle of field position to come away with a much-coveted "W".
BB73's prediction: 27-20, TSUN
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 24-16, TSUN
Bucky Katt's prediction: 31-13, TSUN
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 27-24, Ohio State
JCOSU86's prediction: 21-17, Ohio State
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual scores versus predicted scores. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
Previous Game Result: (tOSU 14, Penn State 20)
(229) BB73's prediction: 20-17, Ohio State (19 + 210 last week = 229)
(239) jwinslow's prediction: 16-10, Ohio State (22 + 217 last week = 239)
(264) Bucky Katt's prediction: 13-10, Ohio State (21 + 243 last week =264)
(273) Bucklion's prediction: 13-7, Ohio State (24 + 249 last week = 273)
(286) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State (24 + 262 last week = 286)
(295) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State (24 + 271 last week = 295)
(295) JCOSU86's prediction: 21-17, Ohio State (20 + 275 last week= 295)
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 24-16, TSUN
Bucky Katt's prediction: 31-13, TSUN
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 27-24, Ohio State
JCOSU86's prediction: 21-17, Ohio State
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual scores versus predicted scores. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
Previous Game Result: (tOSU 14, Penn State 20)
(229) BB73's prediction: 20-17, Ohio State (19 + 210 last week = 229)
(239) jwinslow's prediction: 16-10, Ohio State (22 + 217 last week = 239)
(264) Bucky Katt's prediction: 13-10, Ohio State (21 + 243 last week =264)
(273) Bucklion's prediction: 13-7, Ohio State (24 + 249 last week = 273)
(286) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State (24 + 262 last week = 286)
(295) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: xx-xx, Ohio State (24 + 271 last week = 295)
(295) JCOSU86's prediction: 21-17, Ohio State (20 + 275 last week= 295)
Scores are adjusted for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
Last edited:
Balancing it out a bit.
