2009 Toledo Rockets Game Preview
Preface
This week the Buckeyes are the road team, although tOSU fans will surely outnumber the Toledo Rocket fans in Cleveland Browns Stadium. The last time that the Buckeyes played a football game in Cleveland was in 1991, when tOSU defeated Northwestern 34-3 in Municipal Stadium.
Regardless of the point spread this week, it's a safe bet that the winning head coach will have attended Berea High School and is the son of a coach. Tim Beckman was born in Berea, and finished high school there about a dozen years after Jim Tressel. Beckman was hired off the Bowling Green staff to become tOSU's Cornerbacks Coach in 2005; he spent two seasons with the Buckeyes before moving to Oklahoma State to become a Defensive Coordinator. He is in his first season as a head coach in college.
The Rockets' football history includes the second longest winning streak in major college football, with their 35 consecutive wins from 1969-71 trailing only the 47-game run that Oklahoma had in the 1950s. Those of us that grew up in Toledo remember the leadership of QB Chuck Ealey, the toughness of noseguard Mel Long, and the clutch kicking of Ken Crots. Mel Long was a consensus All-American who went on the play for the Browns, and was inducted into College Football Hall of Fame in 1998. Chuck Ealey finished 8th in the 1971 Heisman voting. Other players of note in the Rockets' history include NFL Hall of Famer Emlen Tunnell and QB Gene Swick, who finished 10th in the Heisman race when Archie Griffin repeated in 1975.
Chuck Ealey still owns the record for consecutive wins by a starting QB in major college football. His mark of 35 straight was protected by the Buckeyes in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, when Ken Dorsey's team fell short, stopping him at 34. Three years later the Texas Longhorns did the same thing to Matt Leinart in his final game at USC.
Head coaches for Toledo include Nick Saban, who went 9-2 in a MAC co-championship year of 1990, before leaving to become the DC for the Cleveland Browns. Saban was followed by Gary Pinkel, who won the MAC in '95 and had only 1 losing season within his 10-year record of 73-37-3 (.659). Pinkel left for Missouri and was succeeded by Tom Amstutz, who went 58-41 in 8 years, winning MAC crowns in 2001 and 2004.
Amstutz struggled through a 3-9 season in 2008, however one of those victories was a landmark win over TSUN in Ann Arbor. That was the only time the schools have played on the football field.
The Rockets also own a 1-0 record against Penn State, having beaten JoePa's boys 24-6 in Beaver Stadium in 2000. The overall record against teams currently in the Big Ten is 5-13, including a loss at Purdue two weeks ago. The only time the Rockets played the Buckeyes previously was a 49-0 loss to the loaded tOSU squad in 1998.
Ohio State's all-time mark against teams currently in the MAC is 24-1, the lone loss being to an Akron team coached by John Heisman in 1894. That does not include the Marshall game in 2004, since they're now in Conference USA. The Buckeyes' last loss to an in-state school was to Oberlin in 1921 (a 7-6 loss before the Horseshoe was open); and the last non-victory was a 7-7 tie in the 'Shoe with Wooster in 1924).
Oddly enough, this preview writer once wore the Toledo Rocket mascot costume (not officially, just briefly while attending a party after a UT-TSUN basketball game). The Additional Info section of this preview informed me of a connection between that costume and a recent i-dotter in the 'Shoe, once again showing that it always pays to read all portions of the BP preview.
Date and TimeRegardless of the point spread this week, it's a safe bet that the winning head coach will have attended Berea High School and is the son of a coach. Tim Beckman was born in Berea, and finished high school there about a dozen years after Jim Tressel. Beckman was hired off the Bowling Green staff to become tOSU's Cornerbacks Coach in 2005; he spent two seasons with the Buckeyes before moving to Oklahoma State to become a Defensive Coordinator. He is in his first season as a head coach in college.
The Rockets' football history includes the second longest winning streak in major college football, with their 35 consecutive wins from 1969-71 trailing only the 47-game run that Oklahoma had in the 1950s. Those of us that grew up in Toledo remember the leadership of QB Chuck Ealey, the toughness of noseguard Mel Long, and the clutch kicking of Ken Crots. Mel Long was a consensus All-American who went on the play for the Browns, and was inducted into College Football Hall of Fame in 1998. Chuck Ealey finished 8th in the 1971 Heisman voting. Other players of note in the Rockets' history include NFL Hall of Famer Emlen Tunnell and QB Gene Swick, who finished 10th in the Heisman race when Archie Griffin repeated in 1975.
Chuck Ealey still owns the record for consecutive wins by a starting QB in major college football. His mark of 35 straight was protected by the Buckeyes in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, when Ken Dorsey's team fell short, stopping him at 34. Three years later the Texas Longhorns did the same thing to Matt Leinart in his final game at USC.
Head coaches for Toledo include Nick Saban, who went 9-2 in a MAC co-championship year of 1990, before leaving to become the DC for the Cleveland Browns. Saban was followed by Gary Pinkel, who won the MAC in '95 and had only 1 losing season within his 10-year record of 73-37-3 (.659). Pinkel left for Missouri and was succeeded by Tom Amstutz, who went 58-41 in 8 years, winning MAC crowns in 2001 and 2004.
Amstutz struggled through a 3-9 season in 2008, however one of those victories was a landmark win over TSUN in Ann Arbor. That was the only time the schools have played on the football field.
The Rockets also own a 1-0 record against Penn State, having beaten JoePa's boys 24-6 in Beaver Stadium in 2000. The overall record against teams currently in the Big Ten is 5-13, including a loss at Purdue two weeks ago. The only time the Rockets played the Buckeyes previously was a 49-0 loss to the loaded tOSU squad in 1998.
Ohio State's all-time mark against teams currently in the MAC is 24-1, the lone loss being to an Akron team coached by John Heisman in 1894. That does not include the Marshall game in 2004, since they're now in Conference USA. The Buckeyes' last loss to an in-state school was to Oberlin in 1921 (a 7-6 loss before the Horseshoe was open); and the last non-victory was a 7-7 tie in the 'Shoe with Wooster in 1924).
Oddly enough, this preview writer once wore the Toledo Rocket mascot costume (not officially, just briefly while attending a party after a UT-TSUN basketball game). The Additional Info section of this preview informed me of a connection between that costume and a recent i-dotter in the 'Shoe, once again showing that it always pays to read all portions of the BP preview.
Date: Saturday, September 19th, 2009
Time: 12:00 PM EDT Kick-off
Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland Ohio.
Constructed: 1999
Seating Capacity: 73,200
Playing Surface: Grass
Time: 12:00 PM EDT Kick-off
Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland Ohio.
Constructed: 1999
Seating Capacity: 73,200
Playing Surface: Grass
Events:
Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ESPN Gameplan Plus (most ABC stations in Ohio), announced by Michael Reghi and Doug Chapman, also ESPN360
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS 1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
2009 Toledo Rockets Offensive PreviewTV Broacast: ESPN Gameplan Plus (most ABC stations in Ohio), announced by Michael Reghi and Doug Chapman, also ESPN360
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS 1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
Returning starters: 9
The Buckeyes take on Toledo for only the 2nd time, and do so in Cleveland Browns Stadium in what should be an interesting contest. Last season, the Rockets were poor on offense, ranking 85th in passing and total offense and 88th in points scored per game. Gone, however, is the old regime, replaced by new coach Tim Beckman, who also has co-coordinators Matt Campbell and Scott Satterfield at his disposal. They have implemented their own version of the spread offense, emphasizing speed and tempo and attempting to take advantage of the experience on the team to be able to quickly adapt to a new scheme.
If the two games are any indication, the players have fully bought in to everything the coaching staff has asked of them, and are performing at a significantly higher level in 2009 than in the past 3 lean seasons. The Rockets enter Saturday's game ranked 7th nationally in passing yards per game (371) and a respectable 43rd in rushing yards per game (187.5). Collectively, their 558 yards per game ranks 7th in the nation. The Rockets are also tied for 15th in the country at 42.5 points per game. In addition, their 47 first downs is tied for 17th, and their 47.1% conversion rate on 3rd down ranks just outside the top 25 at 26th nationally. All told, the Rockets are ranked very highly in all major statistical offensive categories, and they have accomplished it against 2 BCS conference teams thus far. The Buckeyes will definitely have a much bigger challenge with the Toledo offense in 2009 than it appeared it would looking at the previous 3 seasons. The Rockets will doubtlessly be energized by getting their shot at the Buckeyes, and the defense will need to be ready both through the air and on the ground.
If the two games are any indication, the players have fully bought in to everything the coaching staff has asked of them, and are performing at a significantly higher level in 2009 than in the past 3 lean seasons. The Rockets enter Saturday's game ranked 7th nationally in passing yards per game (371) and a respectable 43rd in rushing yards per game (187.5). Collectively, their 558 yards per game ranks 7th in the nation. The Rockets are also tied for 15th in the country at 42.5 points per game. In addition, their 47 first downs is tied for 17th, and their 47.1% conversion rate on 3rd down ranks just outside the top 25 at 26th nationally. All told, the Rockets are ranked very highly in all major statistical offensive categories, and they have accomplished it against 2 BCS conference teams thus far. The Buckeyes will definitely have a much bigger challenge with the Toledo offense in 2009 than it appeared it would looking at the previous 3 seasons. The Rockets will doubtlessly be energized by getting their shot at the Buckeyes, and the defense will need to be ready both through the air and on the ground.
Quarterbacks
QB #11 Aaron Opelt (6-2, 225, SR, Fremont-Ross HS, Fremont, OH)
Opelt has been a fixture in the Toledo lineup since starting 6 games as a freshman in 2006. He threw for 1756 yards and 12 TDs as a sophomore and then for 2176 yards and 12 TDs last year as a junior. He also has 15 career rushing TDs and can gain important yardage at critical times on the ground. His INT numbers have been pretty good (7 each of the last 2 seasons) and he avoids sacks relatively well, taking only 15 last season and only 5 the year before. He is certainly in for a huge 2009 senior season if things keep going as they have been the first 2 games, and he will continue to move up the all-time Toledo list, where he already ranks in the top 10 in most major categories. He also currently leads the nation in total offense. In the opener against Purdue, Opelt threw an amazing 67 passes, completing 41 for 423 yards and 3 scores, while throwing 2 INTs. Then the following week against Colorado, he torched the Buffaloes for 319 yards on only 15 completions with 4 TD passes and no INTs, all while also chipping in 109 yards and 2 TDs on the ground in only 8 carries. With the new coaching staff, it appears he will be called upon to lead the team both through the air and on the ground more than in previous seasons, and thus far he has been up to the challenge. He is a scrappy, cagey veteran who seems to be making good decisions and who can clearly lead this team to big things in 2009 in confernece play, as evidenced last Friday against Colorado with the victory and for their run at Purdue in the opener. Look for big things from the Rocket offense for the remainder of the year and for footballs to be flying all over the field on Saturday.
The backup for the Rockets is freshman Austin Dantin (#4). He is the potential QB of the future but lacks game experience, so the Rockets need Opelt to stay healthy.
QB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State QBs
Opelt: 56/90 (62.2%), 742 yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 152.7 rating; 12/132, 2 TDs
Pryor: 25/46 (54.3%), 351 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 116.9 rating; 16/66, 1 TD
Most Buckeye fans would probably say this is a mismatch, but Opelt has significantly out-produced Pryor both through the air and on the ground while also playing against FBS "Big 6" competition. Granted, the structure of the offenses is different, and USC was a much more superior opponent than Purdue or Colorado. Still, Opelt has been impressive thus far, and given his skills and experience, it would be no surprise at all to see him hold his own this Saturday. Pryor is clearly the bigger raw talent, but some would say his potential has not been maximized thus far. This is a critical game for Pryor to establish himself as a significant force heading into Big Ten play, and it is likely he will put on a show against a Toledo defense that has allowed points in bunches. There is not much experience behind either player, so depth is more or less a push.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #22 DaJuane Collins (5-10, 211, SR, Deptford HS, Westville, NJ)
Much like the QB position, the Rockets are blessed with a player that has both skill and significant experience. Collins has received significant playing time since he was a freshman in 2006. He has been the team's second leading rusher the previous 2 seasons, gaining 636 yards with 7 TDs as a sophomore, and 700 yards with 5 TDs as a junior while making 8 starts and gaining 3rd team All-MAC recognition. He had a small role in the opener, gaining only 27 yards on 9 carries with a TD, but had a much bigger role last week, gaining 160 yards on 20 carries with a TD. He is a big, physical runner with good speed and good hands, having caught 18 passes the previous 2 seasons. He is a good fit for this version of the spread offense, and looks to be on the way toward a big senior season.
Behind Collins is sophomore Jake Walker (#6). He is nearly identical to Collins in size (5-11, 210) and he saw limited action last season, appearing in 9 games and gaining 67 yards on 16 carries. He has just 7 carries thus far this year for 18 yards, so he doesn't appear to be likely to see a great deal of time Saturday unless something happens to Collins.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State RBs
Collins: 29/187 yards, 2 TDs, 6.4 YPC; 1 rec/6 yards, 0 TDs, 6.0 YPR
Walker: 7/18 yards, 0 TDs, 2.6 YPC; 1 rec/-4 yards, 0 TDs, -4.0 YPR
Herron: 35/116 yards, 2 TDs, 3.3 YPC; 5 rec/34 yards, 0 TDs, 6.8 YPR
Saine: 10/55 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 YPC; 4 rec/54 yards, 0 TDs, 13.5 YPR
Collins is a nice fit for this offense, and he looks to be on the way to closing his career with a flourish. Herron has yet to fulfill the role of a dominant Buckeye tailback, and it appears that perhaps Saine should see an expanded role in the offense, given his production thus far and his ability to be dangerous out of the backfield catching passes. Collins had a slow game in the opener, but had a big game the 2nd week. Look for the Buckeye running backs to bounce back with better production this weekend, which will be critical as conference play opens. Give Collins the edge in production, whereas the Buckeyes have the depth advantage with 2 backs that can produce regularly. Ordinarily this would be an overwhelming Buckeye strength most years, but the combination of size and experience in Collins and the question marks surrounding the rushing attack for the Buckeyes in the first 2 games makes this more of a push than expected based on accumulated 2009 production. It is up to the Ohio State backs and offensive line to prove otherwise this weekend.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR-X #85 Robin Bailey (6-5, 230, SR, Westerville South HS, Columbus, OH)
WR-Z #7 Kenny Stafford (6-4, 195, SO, St. Francis DeSales HS, Columbus, OH)
WR-M #12 Eric Page (5-10, 165, FR, Springfield HS, Toledo, OH)
A combination of youthful enthusiasm and veteran leadership makes the Toledo WR corps a strength of the team. The X position provides the leadership as well as its share of production. Bailey is the latest in a long line of Westerville South standout WRs to make his impact on Toledo (Lance Moore, Steve Odom, and Nick Moore are 1, 2, and 4 on the career receptions list for the Rockets) and is a big target who can create matchup problems. He had limited playing time coming in to the 2009 season (17 career catches), but has been in the system and has contributed significantly in 2009. Fellow senior Stephen Williams (#88) is the regular starter at the X spot and is the team's standout receiver, but he is returning from a nagging injury that limited him last week. He was 2nd team all-MAC in 2007 and 2008, and is off to a good start in 2009, as he is tied for the team lead in catches and TDs. He is an explosive player with good height (6-5) and he was the fastest player clocked in the spring. He had a big game in the opener (15 catches, 185 yards, 2 TDs) but played in only 2 series against the Buffaloes, with no catches. The Rockets will need him to be healthy and ready to contribute on Saturday. At the Z spot, Stafford is another player with good size who started one game in 2008, so he brings some experience to the Rockets. He caught 3 passes in the opener and caught 4 for 88 yards and a score against Colorado. Page is a burner who is making an immediate impact for the Rockets as a true freshman. He caught 12 passes for 128 yards and a score in the opener, and followed that with 3 catches for 138 yards and a score last week. He might be their most explosive receiver at the present time, and with all of his raw potential, the sky appears to be the limit for this young man.
Additional depth is provided by a pair of redshirt freshmen, Sam Gaymon (#84) at the Z position and David Pasquale (#10) at the M spot. Neither has caught a pass this season.
WR Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State WRs
Page: 15 catches, 266 yards, 2 TDs, 17.7 YPR
Williams: 15 catches, 185 yards, 2 TDs, 12.3 YPR
Stafford: 7 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD, 14.0 YPR
Bailey: 7 catches, 73 yards, 0 TDs, 10.4 YPR
Sanzenbacher: 4 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD, 28.8 YPR
Posey: 8 catches, 95 yards, 0 TDs, 11.9 YPR
Carter: 3 catches, 21 yards, 0 TDs, 7.0 YPR
Williams and Page are very good players, capable of breaking off a big gainer or catching double digit passes in a game. The receiving corps has good speed and good height, which can create significant matchup problems in the red zone. Each of the 4 major players brings something significant to the Rockets, and the Buckeyes will have to keep a keen eye on all 4 as the game progresses. For the Buckeyes, the passing game will have to significantly improve in this contest, and that will mean more opportunities for the relatively inexperienced corps to show what they can do downfield. They have already produced some highlight-reel catches in the first 2 games, but more consistent production form the passing game remains a critical element for the Buckeyes. Behind the top players, there isn't a whole lot of depth on either side. The Buckeyes may have more marquee names, but it is difficult to argue with the production of the Rockets thus far.
Edge: Even
Tight Ends
TE #86 Danny Noble (6-5, 236, SO, Elyria HS, Elyria, OH)
Noble is a TE/WR hybrid that can be especially effective in the passing game. He has caught 7 passes for 74 yards and a TD so far this season, and his production should continue to increase as he is able to create mismatches with smaller DBs or slower LBs. When it is blocking Toledo needs, they turn to Tom Burzine (#81), who started the opener. The senior is a much bigger player (6-4, 255) with 10 starts last season to his credit, so he is very capable and will see the field quite a bit for the Rockets. He also had a 23 yard TD catch last week for his only reception of the season thus far.
TE Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State TEs
Noble: 7 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD, 10.6 YPR
Ballard: 3 catches, 51 yards, 0 TDs, 17.0 YPR
Both TEs can be effective in the passing game if given the chance, though Noble will probably get more opportunities. Noble is a downfield threat, complemented nicely by the bulldozing blocking of Burzine. Ballard is a capable veteran player, but the production of the Toledo TE position is a bit higher.
Edge: Toledo
Offensive Line
LT #74 Mike VanDerMeulen (6-7, 315, SO, Marshall HS, Marshall, MI)
LG #68 Jared DeWalt (6-4, 318, SR, Brush HS, Lyndhurst, OH)
C #69 Kevin Kowalski (6-4, 290, JR, Nordonia HS, Macedonia, OH)
RG #65 Nate Cole (6-2, 305, JR, Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
RT #70 John Morookian (6-5, 291, SO, LaSalle HS, Providence, RI)
Toledo has an offensive line with quite a bit of size and a good mixture of younger and more experienced players. VanDerMuelen anchors the left side after starting 11 games as a freshman last season (the first freshman to start at LT since current Patriot Nick Kaczur). He's a bulldozer who is also an effective pass blocker. DeWalt is an experienced and versatile player who has started at right guard (8 games in 2006), right tackle (11 games in 2007) and left guard (9 starts in 2008). He is a road grater with good size and fundamentals. Manning the middle is Kowalski, who started 12 games at right guard in 2008, demonstrating his versatility. His experience and intelligence make him a good fit at center. On the right side, Cole moved over from the defense in 2008, registering 5 starts at center and 2 starts at guard. He is a big, bruising player who fits in well in the interior of the line. Morookian started 10 games at the right tackle spot last year, and again mans the edge. He is a more mobile lineman with good footwork. Collectively, the line has quite a bit of experience, but the players have bounced around a lot, indicating a certain level of upheaval in recent years. However, the entire line has settled in and started both games as a unit, and the results are evident on the field, as the offensive production in both the passing and running games has been stellar the first 2 contests.
Depth is provided by a series of younger players. Three freshmen, Danny Farr (#71), Zac Kerin (#77) and A.J. Lindeman (#60) backup the LT, C, and RG positions, respectively. Junior Chris Meenan (#62), who has a start to his credit, backs up the RT spot, and sophomore Phillip Manley (#78) provides depth at the LG position.
OL Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State OL
It would appear that the Toledo line is, pardon the pun, well entrenched, as all 5 players have started together, with positive results. Opelt has thrown 90 passes, and has only been sacked one time, indicating how well the pass blocking has been to open the season. The running game picked up considerably against Colorado as well, as the Rocket line out-toughed and out-muscled the Buffalo defense for most of the game. After some disappointing seasons, it appears the Toledo line is in good shape and is working well as a unit. The Buckeyes are still finding their way, as early season games against Navy and USC have not shown them to be a dominant force as of yet. Players like Boren and Brewster are high quality players, however, and the Buckeyes should be able to reassert themselves this weekend.
Edge: Even
Overall Offensive Analysis
After 3 lean seasons in Toledo, the Rockets appear to be capable of making some serious noise in the MAC in 2009. The offense is full of experienced players at the skill positions and versatile players along the line and at the TE position. It is possible that Purdue and Colorado will finish towards the bottom of their conferences, but that does not detract from the fact that Toledo has put up some pretty impressive numbers against "Big 6" schools in the first 2 games. The Ohio State defense is a step up in competition, but the Rockets will also be a handful for the Buckeyes as they look to contain Opelt and the running game. The Rockets will need to achieve an effective balance in their attack, something they were not able to accomplish in their loss (Purdue) but did a very good job of in their win (Colorado). The senior leadership and wealth of experience is paying off this season, as the new coaching staff appears to have installed a system the players buy into and have run effectively. There are no players that jump out as 'superstars' per se (save Williams when healthy), but the skill and experience up and down the offense is impressive. The Rockets are thin on depth, a hallmark of most MAC teams, so it will be important for them to stay healthy and stay on the field going forward. Watch out MAC West.
Overall Offensive Rating: B+
2009 Toledo Rockets Defensive PreviewQB #11 Aaron Opelt (6-2, 225, SR, Fremont-Ross HS, Fremont, OH)
Opelt has been a fixture in the Toledo lineup since starting 6 games as a freshman in 2006. He threw for 1756 yards and 12 TDs as a sophomore and then for 2176 yards and 12 TDs last year as a junior. He also has 15 career rushing TDs and can gain important yardage at critical times on the ground. His INT numbers have been pretty good (7 each of the last 2 seasons) and he avoids sacks relatively well, taking only 15 last season and only 5 the year before. He is certainly in for a huge 2009 senior season if things keep going as they have been the first 2 games, and he will continue to move up the all-time Toledo list, where he already ranks in the top 10 in most major categories. He also currently leads the nation in total offense. In the opener against Purdue, Opelt threw an amazing 67 passes, completing 41 for 423 yards and 3 scores, while throwing 2 INTs. Then the following week against Colorado, he torched the Buffaloes for 319 yards on only 15 completions with 4 TD passes and no INTs, all while also chipping in 109 yards and 2 TDs on the ground in only 8 carries. With the new coaching staff, it appears he will be called upon to lead the team both through the air and on the ground more than in previous seasons, and thus far he has been up to the challenge. He is a scrappy, cagey veteran who seems to be making good decisions and who can clearly lead this team to big things in 2009 in confernece play, as evidenced last Friday against Colorado with the victory and for their run at Purdue in the opener. Look for big things from the Rocket offense for the remainder of the year and for footballs to be flying all over the field on Saturday.
The backup for the Rockets is freshman Austin Dantin (#4). He is the potential QB of the future but lacks game experience, so the Rockets need Opelt to stay healthy.
QB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State QBs
Opelt: 56/90 (62.2%), 742 yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 152.7 rating; 12/132, 2 TDs
Pryor: 25/46 (54.3%), 351 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 116.9 rating; 16/66, 1 TD
Most Buckeye fans would probably say this is a mismatch, but Opelt has significantly out-produced Pryor both through the air and on the ground while also playing against FBS "Big 6" competition. Granted, the structure of the offenses is different, and USC was a much more superior opponent than Purdue or Colorado. Still, Opelt has been impressive thus far, and given his skills and experience, it would be no surprise at all to see him hold his own this Saturday. Pryor is clearly the bigger raw talent, but some would say his potential has not been maximized thus far. This is a critical game for Pryor to establish himself as a significant force heading into Big Ten play, and it is likely he will put on a show against a Toledo defense that has allowed points in bunches. There is not much experience behind either player, so depth is more or less a push.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #22 DaJuane Collins (5-10, 211, SR, Deptford HS, Westville, NJ)
Much like the QB position, the Rockets are blessed with a player that has both skill and significant experience. Collins has received significant playing time since he was a freshman in 2006. He has been the team's second leading rusher the previous 2 seasons, gaining 636 yards with 7 TDs as a sophomore, and 700 yards with 5 TDs as a junior while making 8 starts and gaining 3rd team All-MAC recognition. He had a small role in the opener, gaining only 27 yards on 9 carries with a TD, but had a much bigger role last week, gaining 160 yards on 20 carries with a TD. He is a big, physical runner with good speed and good hands, having caught 18 passes the previous 2 seasons. He is a good fit for this version of the spread offense, and looks to be on the way toward a big senior season.
Behind Collins is sophomore Jake Walker (#6). He is nearly identical to Collins in size (5-11, 210) and he saw limited action last season, appearing in 9 games and gaining 67 yards on 16 carries. He has just 7 carries thus far this year for 18 yards, so he doesn't appear to be likely to see a great deal of time Saturday unless something happens to Collins.
RB Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State RBs
Collins: 29/187 yards, 2 TDs, 6.4 YPC; 1 rec/6 yards, 0 TDs, 6.0 YPR
Walker: 7/18 yards, 0 TDs, 2.6 YPC; 1 rec/-4 yards, 0 TDs, -4.0 YPR
Herron: 35/116 yards, 2 TDs, 3.3 YPC; 5 rec/34 yards, 0 TDs, 6.8 YPR
Saine: 10/55 yards, 0 TDs, 5.5 YPC; 4 rec/54 yards, 0 TDs, 13.5 YPR
Collins is a nice fit for this offense, and he looks to be on the way to closing his career with a flourish. Herron has yet to fulfill the role of a dominant Buckeye tailback, and it appears that perhaps Saine should see an expanded role in the offense, given his production thus far and his ability to be dangerous out of the backfield catching passes. Collins had a slow game in the opener, but had a big game the 2nd week. Look for the Buckeye running backs to bounce back with better production this weekend, which will be critical as conference play opens. Give Collins the edge in production, whereas the Buckeyes have the depth advantage with 2 backs that can produce regularly. Ordinarily this would be an overwhelming Buckeye strength most years, but the combination of size and experience in Collins and the question marks surrounding the rushing attack for the Buckeyes in the first 2 games makes this more of a push than expected based on accumulated 2009 production. It is up to the Ohio State backs and offensive line to prove otherwise this weekend.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR-X #85 Robin Bailey (6-5, 230, SR, Westerville South HS, Columbus, OH)
WR-Z #7 Kenny Stafford (6-4, 195, SO, St. Francis DeSales HS, Columbus, OH)
WR-M #12 Eric Page (5-10, 165, FR, Springfield HS, Toledo, OH)
A combination of youthful enthusiasm and veteran leadership makes the Toledo WR corps a strength of the team. The X position provides the leadership as well as its share of production. Bailey is the latest in a long line of Westerville South standout WRs to make his impact on Toledo (Lance Moore, Steve Odom, and Nick Moore are 1, 2, and 4 on the career receptions list for the Rockets) and is a big target who can create matchup problems. He had limited playing time coming in to the 2009 season (17 career catches), but has been in the system and has contributed significantly in 2009. Fellow senior Stephen Williams (#88) is the regular starter at the X spot and is the team's standout receiver, but he is returning from a nagging injury that limited him last week. He was 2nd team all-MAC in 2007 and 2008, and is off to a good start in 2009, as he is tied for the team lead in catches and TDs. He is an explosive player with good height (6-5) and he was the fastest player clocked in the spring. He had a big game in the opener (15 catches, 185 yards, 2 TDs) but played in only 2 series against the Buffaloes, with no catches. The Rockets will need him to be healthy and ready to contribute on Saturday. At the Z spot, Stafford is another player with good size who started one game in 2008, so he brings some experience to the Rockets. He caught 3 passes in the opener and caught 4 for 88 yards and a score against Colorado. Page is a burner who is making an immediate impact for the Rockets as a true freshman. He caught 12 passes for 128 yards and a score in the opener, and followed that with 3 catches for 138 yards and a score last week. He might be their most explosive receiver at the present time, and with all of his raw potential, the sky appears to be the limit for this young man.
Additional depth is provided by a pair of redshirt freshmen, Sam Gaymon (#84) at the Z position and David Pasquale (#10) at the M spot. Neither has caught a pass this season.
WR Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State WRs
Page: 15 catches, 266 yards, 2 TDs, 17.7 YPR
Williams: 15 catches, 185 yards, 2 TDs, 12.3 YPR
Stafford: 7 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD, 14.0 YPR
Bailey: 7 catches, 73 yards, 0 TDs, 10.4 YPR
Sanzenbacher: 4 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD, 28.8 YPR
Posey: 8 catches, 95 yards, 0 TDs, 11.9 YPR
Carter: 3 catches, 21 yards, 0 TDs, 7.0 YPR
Williams and Page are very good players, capable of breaking off a big gainer or catching double digit passes in a game. The receiving corps has good speed and good height, which can create significant matchup problems in the red zone. Each of the 4 major players brings something significant to the Rockets, and the Buckeyes will have to keep a keen eye on all 4 as the game progresses. For the Buckeyes, the passing game will have to significantly improve in this contest, and that will mean more opportunities for the relatively inexperienced corps to show what they can do downfield. They have already produced some highlight-reel catches in the first 2 games, but more consistent production form the passing game remains a critical element for the Buckeyes. Behind the top players, there isn't a whole lot of depth on either side. The Buckeyes may have more marquee names, but it is difficult to argue with the production of the Rockets thus far.
Edge: Even
Tight Ends
TE #86 Danny Noble (6-5, 236, SO, Elyria HS, Elyria, OH)
Noble is a TE/WR hybrid that can be especially effective in the passing game. He has caught 7 passes for 74 yards and a TD so far this season, and his production should continue to increase as he is able to create mismatches with smaller DBs or slower LBs. When it is blocking Toledo needs, they turn to Tom Burzine (#81), who started the opener. The senior is a much bigger player (6-4, 255) with 10 starts last season to his credit, so he is very capable and will see the field quite a bit for the Rockets. He also had a 23 yard TD catch last week for his only reception of the season thus far.
TE Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State TEs
Noble: 7 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD, 10.6 YPR
Ballard: 3 catches, 51 yards, 0 TDs, 17.0 YPR
Both TEs can be effective in the passing game if given the chance, though Noble will probably get more opportunities. Noble is a downfield threat, complemented nicely by the bulldozing blocking of Burzine. Ballard is a capable veteran player, but the production of the Toledo TE position is a bit higher.
Edge: Toledo
Offensive Line
LT #74 Mike VanDerMeulen (6-7, 315, SO, Marshall HS, Marshall, MI)
LG #68 Jared DeWalt (6-4, 318, SR, Brush HS, Lyndhurst, OH)
C #69 Kevin Kowalski (6-4, 290, JR, Nordonia HS, Macedonia, OH)
RG #65 Nate Cole (6-2, 305, JR, Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
RT #70 John Morookian (6-5, 291, SO, LaSalle HS, Providence, RI)
Toledo has an offensive line with quite a bit of size and a good mixture of younger and more experienced players. VanDerMuelen anchors the left side after starting 11 games as a freshman last season (the first freshman to start at LT since current Patriot Nick Kaczur). He's a bulldozer who is also an effective pass blocker. DeWalt is an experienced and versatile player who has started at right guard (8 games in 2006), right tackle (11 games in 2007) and left guard (9 starts in 2008). He is a road grater with good size and fundamentals. Manning the middle is Kowalski, who started 12 games at right guard in 2008, demonstrating his versatility. His experience and intelligence make him a good fit at center. On the right side, Cole moved over from the defense in 2008, registering 5 starts at center and 2 starts at guard. He is a big, bruising player who fits in well in the interior of the line. Morookian started 10 games at the right tackle spot last year, and again mans the edge. He is a more mobile lineman with good footwork. Collectively, the line has quite a bit of experience, but the players have bounced around a lot, indicating a certain level of upheaval in recent years. However, the entire line has settled in and started both games as a unit, and the results are evident on the field, as the offensive production in both the passing and running games has been stellar the first 2 contests.
Depth is provided by a series of younger players. Three freshmen, Danny Farr (#71), Zac Kerin (#77) and A.J. Lindeman (#60) backup the LT, C, and RG positions, respectively. Junior Chris Meenan (#62), who has a start to his credit, backs up the RT spot, and sophomore Phillip Manley (#78) provides depth at the LG position.
OL Rating: B
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus Ohio State OL
It would appear that the Toledo line is, pardon the pun, well entrenched, as all 5 players have started together, with positive results. Opelt has thrown 90 passes, and has only been sacked one time, indicating how well the pass blocking has been to open the season. The running game picked up considerably against Colorado as well, as the Rocket line out-toughed and out-muscled the Buffalo defense for most of the game. After some disappointing seasons, it appears the Toledo line is in good shape and is working well as a unit. The Buckeyes are still finding their way, as early season games against Navy and USC have not shown them to be a dominant force as of yet. Players like Boren and Brewster are high quality players, however, and the Buckeyes should be able to reassert themselves this weekend.
Edge: Even
Overall Offensive Analysis
After 3 lean seasons in Toledo, the Rockets appear to be capable of making some serious noise in the MAC in 2009. The offense is full of experienced players at the skill positions and versatile players along the line and at the TE position. It is possible that Purdue and Colorado will finish towards the bottom of their conferences, but that does not detract from the fact that Toledo has put up some pretty impressive numbers against "Big 6" schools in the first 2 games. The Ohio State defense is a step up in competition, but the Rockets will also be a handful for the Buckeyes as they look to contain Opelt and the running game. The Rockets will need to achieve an effective balance in their attack, something they were not able to accomplish in their loss (Purdue) but did a very good job of in their win (Colorado). The senior leadership and wealth of experience is paying off this season, as the new coaching staff appears to have installed a system the players buy into and have run effectively. There are no players that jump out as 'superstars' per se (save Williams when healthy), but the skill and experience up and down the offense is impressive. The Rockets are thin on depth, a hallmark of most MAC teams, so it will be important for them to stay healthy and stay on the field going forward. Watch out MAC West.
Overall Offensive Rating: B+
Returning Starters: 8
It is seldom that a MAC team beats a traditional Big Ten power in the same year it decides to fire its head man, as Toledo did last season after the Rockets beat Michigan by a score of 13-10. Despite making improvements over a dreadful, though injury-plauged 2007, the Toledo defense still struggled mightily up front, finishing dead last in the MAC in sacks and TFLs. Likewise, excluding wins against Michigan, Eastern Michigan (3-9, W 41-17) and Miami, Ohio (2-10, W 42-14), the Rockets gave up over 5 TDs a contest, or 37.3 points in those games. They were only slightly better when considering those contests, at 31.4 points per game. The yards against numbers weren't dreadful, though the front six (Toledo used a 4-2-5 scheme) issues were apparent in the 178.3 per game given up on the ground. While teams were able to run, the UT secondary allowed a respectable 203.1 through the air, but allowed 24 TDs while acquiring 10 picks.
Former Ohio State Assistant Tim Beckman (Cornerbacks, 2005-2006) now heads the UT staff and has divided up the defensive coordinator responsibilities to run coordinator Mike Ward and pass coordinator Paul Nichols. Ward began his coaching career at his alma mater, Georgetown College in 1984 as the Strength and Conditioning coach. In 1986, he took the S & C job at Findlay, where he also coached the D line. In 1992, Ward entered D-I when he became Bowling Green's S & C coach. In 2000 he took over responsibilities for the D Line and later become the Defensive Coordinator for the Falcons in 2007. It is hoped that this resume will provide UT with a stronger and more well-conditioned front once he gets his system in place with the Rockets. Nichols began his coaching career at a Graduate Assistant at the Ohio State University in 2004-2005. In 2006 Nichols left for Marshall, where he was responsible for the secondary before being hired on by Beckman at UT this season.
Though it's only been two games, the 2009 Rockets have not looked particularly impressive as the new coaching staff implements its system. While UT defeated Colorado last week, the Buffaloes managed 38 points and the Rockets gave up 52 to Purdue in the opener. Thus, despite an offense that is scoring 42.5 per game, the defense has yielded an average of 45. Again, it's early, but Rockets fans have cause for concern considering. As mentioned above, the chief need was improvement up front and the early numbers demonstrate continued issues, as UT has given up 205 per game on the ground and 5 TDs with 4 sacks and only a handful of backfield tackles. The pass defense has also been less than inspiring in yielding 288 per game and 7 TDs, though they do have 6 INTs (5 return yards) against 92 pass attempts. As explained below, though, the INT numbers are a tad misleading considering where they have come. Of the 12 TDs scored against them, only 3 have come from within the Red Zone, demonstrating that the Rockets are susceptible to the big play. In as much as the Buckeyes had some difficulty moving the ball against the USC Trojans in week 2, the UT contest in Cleveland may be just what the doctor ordered.
Defensive Line
DE #40 Alex Johnson (6-2, 244, Jr.)
DT #56 Derrick Summers (6-2, 258, Sr.)
DT #98 Maurice Hill (6-2, 286, Sr.)
DE (Leo) #58 Douglas Westbrook (6-3, 233, Jr.)
Johnson was a reserve in 2008 making just 8 tackles, one for loss. A Big Ten linebacker by his size, Johnson is expected to bring quickness off the edge and hopefully for the Rockets a backfield presence. He has 3 tackles with a sack thus far in 2009. On the other end might be junior Douglas Westbrook, who sat out most of 2007 with injury before returning in 2008 as a reserve. Like Johnson, it is hoped that the smallish Westbrook can also gain quick access into backfields. Though in '09 he has just 4 tackles with 1 for loss, the LEO leads the team in INTs with 3 suggesting a great ability to drop in to coverage. Able to play bigger than his size, Summers is another illustration of UT's focus on trying to gain quickness on the line. The former linebacker leads all linemen with 7 tackles, with one coming for loss (8 yards). The only "traditionally sized" lineman in the starting group, Maurice Hill provides UT with some space eating presence. Not expected to get in to the backfield often, Hill is used primarily to occupy blockers. He has 5 tackles thus far.
Depth is provided by DE #89 Skylaar Constant (6-4, 285, Sr.), tackles, #52 Johnathan Lamb (6-4, 258, So.), and 97 Malcolm Riley (6-3, 267, So.) and #41 Matt Shumaker (6-1, 239, Sr.0, and LEO #23 T.J. Fatinikun (6-2, 230, Fr.). Riley has the potential to work his way into the starting rotation but has just 1 tackle thus far in 2009. Constant is listed as an end, though his size suggests he is the only other traditionally sized inside presence. He has 1 tackle as well. Second string LEO TJ Fatinkun leads all reserves with 3 tackles, 1 coming for loss. Both Lamb and Shumaker have yet to record any tackles this year.
DL Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus OSU DL
The UT D-Line has been a problem spot for several years now. As the size of the linemen suggests, UT is aiming at acquiring a small but quick line which can disrupt offensive backfields. Early 2009 results, however, leave UT fans wondering when that might come to fruition as there are only 4 tackles behind the line among the entire 2 deep, and just 2 sacks. UT's weakness against the run is almost conceded, while the lack of pressure is not helping the secondary much either. Getting to, much less containing, Terrelle Pryor will be far too lofty a task. Ohio State, by contrast, has legitimate NFL talents in the likes of Thad Gibson and Cam Heyward and company. The strength of Ohio State's stop forces, the D-Line is not only bigger and quicker, it is far deeper in talent with guys like Nathan Williams, redshirt fresham Garrett Goebel and true Freshman Johnny Simon coming off the bench. Against one of, if not the, most talented O-Lines in college football last week, the D-Line played outstanding and should expect continued success this week. UT can hope its smaller linemen are able to cause the sort of disruption that the smaller Navy line created in the opener, but the edge here is clearly in favor of the Buckeyes.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
MLB #48 Beau Brudzinski (6-1, 228, Sr.)
WLB #42 Archie Donald (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Star # 8 Barry Church (6-2, 219, Sr.)
Brudzinski is a career reserve who now gets the starting honors at MLB. For those wondering, he is the son of Bob, who was an All-American DE at tOSU in the 1970s. Quickness and senior experience are Beau's biggest assets. He has 12 tackles with a QB hurry thus far in 2009. Donald has 13 tackles in '09 after leading the Rockets in 2008 with 119 tackles. He sat out 2007 as he worked on his academics, but with that now in order, should push for a spot on the All-MAC team. In the Star position, senior Barry Church leads the Rockets with 14 tackles to go along with a 4 yard INT. A fine safety, where he played last year, Church provides the Rockets with great leadership and a willingness to do whatever it takes to help his team in any way he can. He should do well in the new defensive scheme.
Depth is provided by MLB #32 Dan Molls (6-1, 215, Fr.), WLB #38 Robert Bell (6-0, 222, Fr.), and #45 Isaiah Ballard (5-11, 190 So.), and #44 Drey'lon Pree (6-2, 198, Jr.) at the Star position. The two-deep sports 2 freshman at the traditional linebacker spots where Molls leads all reserves with 7 tackles and a pick, while Bell is second with 4 tackles. Ballard saw action as a true freshman last year and looks to solidify himself as Church's replacement in 2010. He has made 2 stops thus far. Pree has likewise.
LB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Ohio State versus OSU LBs
Toledo is changing over from a 4-2-5 scheme and is using a Star in an effort to keep an emphasis on quickness. But, as the rushing numbers attest, the group may be at a disadvantage in the muscle department. Church is well suited for his role,and Donald again has All-MAC potential. But, that said, the unit has a long way to go to establish itself as a defensive strength. The D-Line needs as much help as it can get in creating pressure, and the unit has failed to make one tackle behind the line of scrimmage thus far. There is little experience behind the starters and as compared to the Buckeyes a significant talent gap. Brian Rolle and Ross Homan lead the Ohio State linebackers and are on a different level than anything Toledo might have. While the Buckeyes are also young, there's little question Ohio State's reserves would be leading the Toledo corps had they enrolled in school just south of the Ohio Border with Michigan. As with the line, the distinct advantage between the units goes to Ohio State.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
RCB #26 Byron Best (5-9, 185, Fr.)
FS #29 Jermaine Robinson (6-3, 195, Fr.)
SS #34 Lester Richmond (6-1, 205, Sr.)
LCB # 5 Daxton Swanson (5-10, 165, Fr.)
Best is a true freshman who has earned the starting job on the right side. He has 3 tackles in this young season. Likewise, freshman Daxton Swanson has earned the look on the left side and leads the secondary (tied for 3rd on the team) with 12 tackles after two games. A third frosh gets the start at free safety in Jermaine Robinson. A four-star type recruit, Robinson should provide Toledo with a solid four years of All-MAC caliber play. He has already established his presence with his teammates and leads the team in tackles for loss with 2, to go along with 9 tackles and a fumble recovery. The lone upperclassman is strong safety Richmond, who will provide the sort of leadership this young group will require as they grow together. Quick and always around the ball, Richmond doesn't miss too many tackles. He has a pick and 7 stops thus far in 2009.
Corners #21 Andreas Ashwood (6-1, 190, So.), and #9 Kenny Veal (6-0, 180, So.) and safeties: #19 Joe Bates (6-1, 190, Sr.), and #43 Mark Singer (6-1, 195, So.) provide depth. Veal and Singer were projected starters at one point and both could see the field with some frequency should the freshmen struggle. Veal has 5 tackles to lead the backups and Singer just 1. Bates has 1 stop and Ashwood 2.
DB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus OSU DBs
Can you say youth? As mentioned above, UT is giving up nearly 300 yards through the air, even though teams are running with success as well. The limited ability of the front seven in getting pressure (indeed, it is FS Robinson who leads the team in backfield tackles) will do little to help this unit gel at a reasonable pace. While the team sports 6 INTs, only Richmond's comes from the secondary. The depth does not stand out as particularly solid, and as a consequence it could be a long, long year for UT fans. Ohio State sports top level talent in the likes of Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence, who was the defensive player of the game last week against USC. Kurt Coleman, Jermale Hines and Anderson Russell provide more experience and talent than the best the Rockets have to offer and like each of the other units, the comparison isn't even close.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
How weird is it that your top backfield presence is your free safety and your number 1 INT guy lines up on the line of scrimmage? That's your Toledo Rockets defense after 2 games in 2009. Lost in the win over Colorado - a win in which the Rockets truly looked superior - is the fact that this defense gives up a ton of yards and a ton of points to go along with them. True enough, it's only a 2 game data set, but it's not as if UT has been playing elite teams in those two games. As the depth chart reveals this unit would benefit from some more age and should have some growing pains in the interim. Still, there are some quality players on this unit, and the sky is the limit for Robinson in particular. That, however, is probably small consolation come this Saturday as the Buckeyes might be looking to make a statement after a weekend of being all but bottled up by USC. The UT D-Line strugges at getting pressure and giving Terrelle Pryor time seems ill-advised, though Pryor will have to be careful about the LEO dropping off the line and into coverage. If Ohio State can't run the ball this week and if Pryor gets sacked more than maybe once, Buckeye fans should become seriously concerned that the O-Line is in need of serious revamping. Toledo has been shredded for 205 a game thus far in 09 and Buckeye fans might finally get a look at Jaamal Berry and/or Jordan Hall.
Overall Defensive Rating: C
2009 Toledo Rockets Special Teams PreviewFormer Ohio State Assistant Tim Beckman (Cornerbacks, 2005-2006) now heads the UT staff and has divided up the defensive coordinator responsibilities to run coordinator Mike Ward and pass coordinator Paul Nichols. Ward began his coaching career at his alma mater, Georgetown College in 1984 as the Strength and Conditioning coach. In 1986, he took the S & C job at Findlay, where he also coached the D line. In 1992, Ward entered D-I when he became Bowling Green's S & C coach. In 2000 he took over responsibilities for the D Line and later become the Defensive Coordinator for the Falcons in 2007. It is hoped that this resume will provide UT with a stronger and more well-conditioned front once he gets his system in place with the Rockets. Nichols began his coaching career at a Graduate Assistant at the Ohio State University in 2004-2005. In 2006 Nichols left for Marshall, where he was responsible for the secondary before being hired on by Beckman at UT this season.
Though it's only been two games, the 2009 Rockets have not looked particularly impressive as the new coaching staff implements its system. While UT defeated Colorado last week, the Buffaloes managed 38 points and the Rockets gave up 52 to Purdue in the opener. Thus, despite an offense that is scoring 42.5 per game, the defense has yielded an average of 45. Again, it's early, but Rockets fans have cause for concern considering. As mentioned above, the chief need was improvement up front and the early numbers demonstrate continued issues, as UT has given up 205 per game on the ground and 5 TDs with 4 sacks and only a handful of backfield tackles. The pass defense has also been less than inspiring in yielding 288 per game and 7 TDs, though they do have 6 INTs (5 return yards) against 92 pass attempts. As explained below, though, the INT numbers are a tad misleading considering where they have come. Of the 12 TDs scored against them, only 3 have come from within the Red Zone, demonstrating that the Rockets are susceptible to the big play. In as much as the Buckeyes had some difficulty moving the ball against the USC Trojans in week 2, the UT contest in Cleveland may be just what the doctor ordered.
Defensive Line
DE #40 Alex Johnson (6-2, 244, Jr.)
DT #56 Derrick Summers (6-2, 258, Sr.)
DT #98 Maurice Hill (6-2, 286, Sr.)
DE (Leo) #58 Douglas Westbrook (6-3, 233, Jr.)
Johnson was a reserve in 2008 making just 8 tackles, one for loss. A Big Ten linebacker by his size, Johnson is expected to bring quickness off the edge and hopefully for the Rockets a backfield presence. He has 3 tackles with a sack thus far in 2009. On the other end might be junior Douglas Westbrook, who sat out most of 2007 with injury before returning in 2008 as a reserve. Like Johnson, it is hoped that the smallish Westbrook can also gain quick access into backfields. Though in '09 he has just 4 tackles with 1 for loss, the LEO leads the team in INTs with 3 suggesting a great ability to drop in to coverage. Able to play bigger than his size, Summers is another illustration of UT's focus on trying to gain quickness on the line. The former linebacker leads all linemen with 7 tackles, with one coming for loss (8 yards). The only "traditionally sized" lineman in the starting group, Maurice Hill provides UT with some space eating presence. Not expected to get in to the backfield often, Hill is used primarily to occupy blockers. He has 5 tackles thus far.
Depth is provided by DE #89 Skylaar Constant (6-4, 285, Sr.), tackles, #52 Johnathan Lamb (6-4, 258, So.), and 97 Malcolm Riley (6-3, 267, So.) and #41 Matt Shumaker (6-1, 239, Sr.0, and LEO #23 T.J. Fatinikun (6-2, 230, Fr.). Riley has the potential to work his way into the starting rotation but has just 1 tackle thus far in 2009. Constant is listed as an end, though his size suggests he is the only other traditionally sized inside presence. He has 1 tackle as well. Second string LEO TJ Fatinkun leads all reserves with 3 tackles, 1 coming for loss. Both Lamb and Shumaker have yet to record any tackles this year.
DL Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus OSU DL
The UT D-Line has been a problem spot for several years now. As the size of the linemen suggests, UT is aiming at acquiring a small but quick line which can disrupt offensive backfields. Early 2009 results, however, leave UT fans wondering when that might come to fruition as there are only 4 tackles behind the line among the entire 2 deep, and just 2 sacks. UT's weakness against the run is almost conceded, while the lack of pressure is not helping the secondary much either. Getting to, much less containing, Terrelle Pryor will be far too lofty a task. Ohio State, by contrast, has legitimate NFL talents in the likes of Thad Gibson and Cam Heyward and company. The strength of Ohio State's stop forces, the D-Line is not only bigger and quicker, it is far deeper in talent with guys like Nathan Williams, redshirt fresham Garrett Goebel and true Freshman Johnny Simon coming off the bench. Against one of, if not the, most talented O-Lines in college football last week, the D-Line played outstanding and should expect continued success this week. UT can hope its smaller linemen are able to cause the sort of disruption that the smaller Navy line created in the opener, but the edge here is clearly in favor of the Buckeyes.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
MLB #48 Beau Brudzinski (6-1, 228, Sr.)
WLB #42 Archie Donald (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Star # 8 Barry Church (6-2, 219, Sr.)
Brudzinski is a career reserve who now gets the starting honors at MLB. For those wondering, he is the son of Bob, who was an All-American DE at tOSU in the 1970s. Quickness and senior experience are Beau's biggest assets. He has 12 tackles with a QB hurry thus far in 2009. Donald has 13 tackles in '09 after leading the Rockets in 2008 with 119 tackles. He sat out 2007 as he worked on his academics, but with that now in order, should push for a spot on the All-MAC team. In the Star position, senior Barry Church leads the Rockets with 14 tackles to go along with a 4 yard INT. A fine safety, where he played last year, Church provides the Rockets with great leadership and a willingness to do whatever it takes to help his team in any way he can. He should do well in the new defensive scheme.
Depth is provided by MLB #32 Dan Molls (6-1, 215, Fr.), WLB #38 Robert Bell (6-0, 222, Fr.), and #45 Isaiah Ballard (5-11, 190 So.), and #44 Drey'lon Pree (6-2, 198, Jr.) at the Star position. The two-deep sports 2 freshman at the traditional linebacker spots where Molls leads all reserves with 7 tackles and a pick, while Bell is second with 4 tackles. Ballard saw action as a true freshman last year and looks to solidify himself as Church's replacement in 2010. He has made 2 stops thus far. Pree has likewise.
LB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Ohio State versus OSU LBs
Toledo is changing over from a 4-2-5 scheme and is using a Star in an effort to keep an emphasis on quickness. But, as the rushing numbers attest, the group may be at a disadvantage in the muscle department. Church is well suited for his role,and Donald again has All-MAC potential. But, that said, the unit has a long way to go to establish itself as a defensive strength. The D-Line needs as much help as it can get in creating pressure, and the unit has failed to make one tackle behind the line of scrimmage thus far. There is little experience behind the starters and as compared to the Buckeyes a significant talent gap. Brian Rolle and Ross Homan lead the Ohio State linebackers and are on a different level than anything Toledo might have. While the Buckeyes are also young, there's little question Ohio State's reserves would be leading the Toledo corps had they enrolled in school just south of the Ohio Border with Michigan. As with the line, the distinct advantage between the units goes to Ohio State.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
RCB #26 Byron Best (5-9, 185, Fr.)
FS #29 Jermaine Robinson (6-3, 195, Fr.)
SS #34 Lester Richmond (6-1, 205, Sr.)
LCB # 5 Daxton Swanson (5-10, 165, Fr.)
Best is a true freshman who has earned the starting job on the right side. He has 3 tackles in this young season. Likewise, freshman Daxton Swanson has earned the look on the left side and leads the secondary (tied for 3rd on the team) with 12 tackles after two games. A third frosh gets the start at free safety in Jermaine Robinson. A four-star type recruit, Robinson should provide Toledo with a solid four years of All-MAC caliber play. He has already established his presence with his teammates and leads the team in tackles for loss with 2, to go along with 9 tackles and a fumble recovery. The lone upperclassman is strong safety Richmond, who will provide the sort of leadership this young group will require as they grow together. Quick and always around the ball, Richmond doesn't miss too many tackles. He has a pick and 7 stops thus far in 2009.
Corners #21 Andreas Ashwood (6-1, 190, So.), and #9 Kenny Veal (6-0, 180, So.) and safeties: #19 Joe Bates (6-1, 190, Sr.), and #43 Mark Singer (6-1, 195, So.) provide depth. Veal and Singer were projected starters at one point and both could see the field with some frequency should the freshmen struggle. Veal has 5 tackles to lead the backups and Singer just 1. Bates has 1 stop and Ashwood 2.
DB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Toledo versus OSU DBs
Can you say youth? As mentioned above, UT is giving up nearly 300 yards through the air, even though teams are running with success as well. The limited ability of the front seven in getting pressure (indeed, it is FS Robinson who leads the team in backfield tackles) will do little to help this unit gel at a reasonable pace. While the team sports 6 INTs, only Richmond's comes from the secondary. The depth does not stand out as particularly solid, and as a consequence it could be a long, long year for UT fans. Ohio State sports top level talent in the likes of Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence, who was the defensive player of the game last week against USC. Kurt Coleman, Jermale Hines and Anderson Russell provide more experience and talent than the best the Rockets have to offer and like each of the other units, the comparison isn't even close.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
How weird is it that your top backfield presence is your free safety and your number 1 INT guy lines up on the line of scrimmage? That's your Toledo Rockets defense after 2 games in 2009. Lost in the win over Colorado - a win in which the Rockets truly looked superior - is the fact that this defense gives up a ton of yards and a ton of points to go along with them. True enough, it's only a 2 game data set, but it's not as if UT has been playing elite teams in those two games. As the depth chart reveals this unit would benefit from some more age and should have some growing pains in the interim. Still, there are some quality players on this unit, and the sky is the limit for Robinson in particular. That, however, is probably small consolation come this Saturday as the Buckeyes might be looking to make a statement after a weekend of being all but bottled up by USC. The UT D-Line strugges at getting pressure and giving Terrelle Pryor time seems ill-advised, though Pryor will have to be careful about the LEO dropping off the line and into coverage. If Ohio State can't run the ball this week and if Pryor gets sacked more than maybe once, Buckeye fans should become seriously concerned that the O-Line is in need of serious revamping. Toledo has been shredded for 205 a game thus far in 09 and Buckeye fans might finally get a look at Jaamal Berry and/or Jordan Hall.
Overall Defensive Rating: C
Returning Starters: 2
Toledo 2009:
Punting - 118th, 7 punts, 253 yds, 36.14 ave, 2 returned for 45 yds, 24 yd net
Punt Returns - 115th, 1 return 0 yds
Punt return defense - 103rd, 2 for 45 yds, 22.5 avg
Kickoff returns - 94th, 12 for 216 yds, 18 avg
Kickoff return defense - 94th, 13 for 310 yds, 23.85 avg
Special Teams
PK #85 Alex Steigerwald (5-11, 181, Sr., Benedictine HS, Mayfield Hts, OH)
PK #3 Ryan Casano (5-10, 175, So., Dripping Springs HS, Dripping Springs, TX)
P #2 Bill Claus (6-0, 187, So., St. John's HS, Perrysburg, OH)
P #3 Ryan Casano (5-10, 175, So., Dripping Springs HS, Dripping Springs, TX)
Hldr #2 Bill Claus (6-0, 187, So., St. John's HS, Perrysburg, OH)
Hldr #11 Aaron Opelt (6-2, 225, Sr., Ross HS, Fremont, OH)
LS #93 Colin McHugh (5-11, 205, So., Lutheran West HS, Rocky River, OH)
LS #38 Robert Bell (6-0, 222, Fr., East Grand Rapids HS, Grand Rapids, MI)
KR #83 Julian Bellinger (6-1, 175, Fr., Lithonia HS, Lithonia, GA)
KR #24 Adonis Thomas (5-10, 175, So., Weeguahic HS, Newark, NJ)
PR #9 Kenny Veal (6-0, 180, So., Hamilton HS, Hamilton, OH)
PR #8 Barry Church (6-2, 219, Sr., Penn Hills HS, Pittsburgh, PA)
Like the Naval Academy in Week #1, the Toledo Rockets bring a young and inexperienced group into Cleveland Browns Stadium on Saturday. Of the 12 Special Teams Players in the two-deep, 9 are sophomores or freshmen, 3 are seniors and 0 are juniors. Last year wasn't a banner year for Toledo's Special teams (they only fielded 12 punts all year!) and they aren't showing much improvement so far this year. Every unit of the Rockets' special teams is ranked in the bottom quarter of those units in the nation, with the highest belonging to the kickoff team (94th). In fact, the punting units haven't seen much action and aren't effective when they do. The Rockets have only returned 1 punt for 0 yards (115th in the nation) and their opponents have returned 2, but for 45 yds (22.5 avg, 103rd in the nation). Youth + inexperience doesn't bode well for a team hoping to defeat a Tressel-coached squad.
Head-to-Head kickoffs: Bellinger/Thomas versus OSU Kickoff Return Defense
The Ohio State kickoff defense continues to perform well. 2 games into the season they have allowed 9 returns for 165 yds (18.33 avg) good for 36th in the nation. Bellinger and Thomas are a freshman and sophomore respectively and don't have a lot of experience. This is not an enviable position for the Rockets.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head punt returns: Veal/Church versus OSU Punt Return Defense
The Buckeyes are doing outstanding on the punt return team, having not allowed a return to date. Veal and Church have not returned a punt yet in 2 games. Last week vs USC, the Buckeye's Grant Schwartz came very close to blocking a kick. Don't be surprised if the Bucks do better than that this week.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head kickoffs: Saine/Herron/Thomas versus Toledo Kickoff Return Defense
The Buckeyes continue to improve from the past couple of years, carrying a respectable 26.5 yd per return avg per kickoff. The Rockets have allowed 23.8 yds per return. And they have played a lot of returns.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head kickoffs: Sanzenbacher/Posey/Small versus Toledo Punt Return Defense
Although the Rockets have only allowed 2 punt returns so far in 2 games, the average yardage of those returns is 22.5! The Bucks average a modest 6.2 yds per return. Look for that to go up this week.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Special Teams Analysis
The Toldeo Rockets bring inexperience and so far, not good results into their "home" game against the Buckeyes in Cleveland Browns Stadium. Unless Ohio State loses focus, or are too down from the tough loss to USC, they should dominate. Tressel coached teams don't lose focus on Special Teams.
Overall Special Teams Rating: D
PredictionsPunting - 118th, 7 punts, 253 yds, 36.14 ave, 2 returned for 45 yds, 24 yd net
Punt Returns - 115th, 1 return 0 yds
Punt return defense - 103rd, 2 for 45 yds, 22.5 avg
Kickoff returns - 94th, 12 for 216 yds, 18 avg
Kickoff return defense - 94th, 13 for 310 yds, 23.85 avg
Special Teams
PK #85 Alex Steigerwald (5-11, 181, Sr., Benedictine HS, Mayfield Hts, OH)
PK #3 Ryan Casano (5-10, 175, So., Dripping Springs HS, Dripping Springs, TX)
P #2 Bill Claus (6-0, 187, So., St. John's HS, Perrysburg, OH)
P #3 Ryan Casano (5-10, 175, So., Dripping Springs HS, Dripping Springs, TX)
Hldr #2 Bill Claus (6-0, 187, So., St. John's HS, Perrysburg, OH)
Hldr #11 Aaron Opelt (6-2, 225, Sr., Ross HS, Fremont, OH)
LS #93 Colin McHugh (5-11, 205, So., Lutheran West HS, Rocky River, OH)
LS #38 Robert Bell (6-0, 222, Fr., East Grand Rapids HS, Grand Rapids, MI)
KR #83 Julian Bellinger (6-1, 175, Fr., Lithonia HS, Lithonia, GA)
KR #24 Adonis Thomas (5-10, 175, So., Weeguahic HS, Newark, NJ)
PR #9 Kenny Veal (6-0, 180, So., Hamilton HS, Hamilton, OH)
PR #8 Barry Church (6-2, 219, Sr., Penn Hills HS, Pittsburgh, PA)
Like the Naval Academy in Week #1, the Toledo Rockets bring a young and inexperienced group into Cleveland Browns Stadium on Saturday. Of the 12 Special Teams Players in the two-deep, 9 are sophomores or freshmen, 3 are seniors and 0 are juniors. Last year wasn't a banner year for Toledo's Special teams (they only fielded 12 punts all year!) and they aren't showing much improvement so far this year. Every unit of the Rockets' special teams is ranked in the bottom quarter of those units in the nation, with the highest belonging to the kickoff team (94th). In fact, the punting units haven't seen much action and aren't effective when they do. The Rockets have only returned 1 punt for 0 yards (115th in the nation) and their opponents have returned 2, but for 45 yds (22.5 avg, 103rd in the nation). Youth + inexperience doesn't bode well for a team hoping to defeat a Tressel-coached squad.
Head-to-Head kickoffs: Bellinger/Thomas versus OSU Kickoff Return Defense
The Ohio State kickoff defense continues to perform well. 2 games into the season they have allowed 9 returns for 165 yds (18.33 avg) good for 36th in the nation. Bellinger and Thomas are a freshman and sophomore respectively and don't have a lot of experience. This is not an enviable position for the Rockets.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head punt returns: Veal/Church versus OSU Punt Return Defense
The Buckeyes are doing outstanding on the punt return team, having not allowed a return to date. Veal and Church have not returned a punt yet in 2 games. Last week vs USC, the Buckeye's Grant Schwartz came very close to blocking a kick. Don't be surprised if the Bucks do better than that this week.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head kickoffs: Saine/Herron/Thomas versus Toledo Kickoff Return Defense
The Buckeyes continue to improve from the past couple of years, carrying a respectable 26.5 yd per return avg per kickoff. The Rockets have allowed 23.8 yds per return. And they have played a lot of returns.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head kickoffs: Sanzenbacher/Posey/Small versus Toledo Punt Return Defense
Although the Rockets have only allowed 2 punt returns so far in 2 games, the average yardage of those returns is 22.5! The Bucks average a modest 6.2 yds per return. Look for that to go up this week.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Special Teams Analysis
The Toldeo Rockets bring inexperience and so far, not good results into their "home" game against the Buckeyes in Cleveland Browns Stadium. Unless Ohio State loses focus, or are too down from the tough loss to USC, they should dominate. Tressel coached teams don't lose focus on Special Teams.
Overall Special Teams Rating: D
BB73's prediction: 38-20, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 54-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 48-28, Ohio State
Bucky Katt's prediction: 37 -20, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 42-17, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 42-21, Ohio State
JCOSU86's prediction: 48-7, Ohio State
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual scores versus predicted scores. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
Previous Game's Results (tOSU 15, USC 18)
(34) BB73's prediction: 23-17, Ohio State (19 + 15 last week = 34)
(35) Bucky Katt's prediction: 13-31, USC (15 + 20 last week = 35)
(39) JCOSU86's prediction: 28-21, Ohio State (26+ 13 last week = 39)
(39) Bucklion's prediction: 27-31, USC (25 + 14 last week = 39)
(41) jwinslow's prediction: 24-23, Ohio State (24+ 17 last week = 41)
(46) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 24-21, Ohio State (22 + 24 last week = 46)
(58) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 33-31, Ohio State (41 + 17 last week = 58)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 54-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 48-28, Ohio State
Bucky Katt's prediction: 37 -20, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 42-17, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 42-21, Ohio State
JCOSU86's prediction: 48-7, Ohio State
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual scores versus predicted scores. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
Previous Game's Results (tOSU 15, USC 18)
(34) BB73's prediction: 23-17, Ohio State (19 + 15 last week = 34)
(35) Bucky Katt's prediction: 13-31, USC (15 + 20 last week = 35)
(39) JCOSU86's prediction: 28-21, Ohio State (26+ 13 last week = 39)
(39) Bucklion's prediction: 27-31, USC (25 + 14 last week = 39)
(41) jwinslow's prediction: 24-23, Ohio State (24+ 17 last week = 41)
(46) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 24-21, Ohio State (22 + 24 last week = 46)
(58) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 33-31, Ohio State (41 + 17 last week = 58)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
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