2009 Polls - Regular and Pre-Season

[methomps]

Thanks for all the help with understanding the Sagarin computer numbers.

Hey I am still battling with Sagarin's formula. In my mind there is a flaw somewhere.
Example, the Nov. 22, JS computer formula ranked Iowa (11 points) ahead of tOSU (8 points).
So either the "home-ness" of our win over Iowa or "other variables" (family jewels?) must be influential enough to lift Iowa and sink tOSU.
Sagarin claims it is unbiased and I have trouble accepting that. I suppose it is likely my own bias that is contaminating the numbers.

The Week 14 polls and rankings were released today.

Week 14 Rankings

tOSU is #7 in the USA Today poll, leading #8 Oregon by 43 points.
In the Harris tOSU sits at a solid #7, ahead of Oregon by 64 points.
In the AP Poll Oregon leads #8 tOSU by a margin of 1104 to 1103.

In a close battle for a possible 2nd Big Ten team selected for a BCS bowl, Penn State leads Iowa by 93 points in the Harris, by 86 in USA Today, but trails Iowa by 23 in the AP.
Anyone know what influence these poll rankings will have when BCS bowls begin the selection process? i.e. Are the Bowl committees committed to a conference "pecking order" based on BCS rankings?

No, they could pick Iowa or PSU.

 

[gracelhink]

The BCS standings for week 7 are posted!

BCS
OSU gets a nice bounce from 10 last week to #8, in spite of the computers.

I know I need to let go of this but the Sagarin computer now has dropped tOSU to #22!

USATODAY.com

Those which Sagarin has rated above the Buckeyes--
10-2 Iowa, (memo tOSU 27, Iowa 24)
9-3 Virginia Tech,
9-2 Pittsburg,
8-3 Oregon State,
8-3 California,
8-3 West Virginia,
8-4 Stanford,
7-5 Georgia,
7-4 Arizona,
7-5 Arkansas!

Thanks BP for letting me vent.

 

[gracelhink]

No, they could pick Iowa or PSU.

Thanks for the answer.

Any thoughts on which team would be more attractive to the BCS bowl selection committees?

It seems like Joe Pa and PSU might have better viewership potential and might travel better.
It doesn't seem fair if they receive the invite considering Iowa beat them head to head and has a higher BCS ranking.

I suspect the Lions and Hawkeyes might be doing some "campaigning".

 

[BB73]

Thanks for the answer.

Any thoughts on which team would be more attractive to the BCS bowl selection committees?

It seems like Joe Pa and PSU might have better viewership potential and might travel better.
It doesn't seem fair if they receive the invite considering Iowa beat them head to head and has a higher BCS ranking.

I suspect the Lions and Hawkeyes might be doing some "campaigning".

Any team in the BCS top-14 with at least 9 wins is eligible, but only two teams from 1 conference can be chosen. So LSU has no chance to be selected because Florida and Bama will both be in BCS bowls.

There are the 6 spots for conference winners, 1 guaranteed spot for the highest non-AQ team (outside the 6 BCS conf, as long as they're in the top-12, which means TCU gets it this year), and 3 more at-large spots. The Bama-Fla loser will get 1 at-large spot.

The other two will come from:
Iowa or Penn State (only 1 can be selected, the other gets LSU in CapitalOne)
Boise State
Texas, if they lose to Nebraska
Cincy, if they lose to Pitt
(the Ga Tech/Clemson loser has no chance)
(the Oregon/Oregon State loser has no chance)

It's generally accepted that Iowa will get 1 of the spots, since they travel very well, they're higher that Penn State in the BCS, and they beat them. But the higher ranking is no guarantee of Iowa being selected, it just makes it more likely, since the bowl would get a fair share of grief if they select Penn State. There was some flack when tOSU was selected for the Fiesta over Boise State last year.

This year, Boise State is in line to get the last spot, even if Cincy loses, as long as Texas doesn't lose to Nebraska.

 

[gracelhink]

Any team in the BCS top-14 with at least 9 wins is eligible, but only two teams from 1 conference can be chosen. So LSU has no chance to be selected because Florida and Bama will both be in BCS bowls.

There are the 6 spots for conference winners, 1 guaranteed spot for the highest non-AQ team (outside the 6 BCS conf, as long as they're in the top-12, which means TCU gets it this year), and 3 more at-large spots. The Bama-Fla loser will get 1 at-large spot.

The other two will come from:
Iowa or Penn State (only 1 can be selected, the other gets LSU in CapitalOne)
Boise State
Texas, if they lose to Nebraska
Cincy, if they lose to Pitt
(the Ga Tech/Clemson loser has no chance)
(the Oregon/Oregon State loser has no chance)

It's generally accepted that Iowa will get 1 of the spots, since they travel very well, they're higher that Penn State in the BCS, and they beat them. But the higher ranking is no guarantee of Iowa being selected, it just makes it more likely, since the bowl would get a fair share of grief if they select Penn State. There was some flack when tOSU was selected for the Fiesta over Boise State last year.

This year, Boise State is in line to get the last spot, even if Cincy loses, as long as Texas doesn't lose to Nebraska.

Thanks BB73, I was sure hoping you might bring some insight to this BCS selection issue.
I would rep you but I have to "spread it around before I can give it to BB73 again."
Maybe someone else could help out with some well deserved rep?

 

[BB73]

Thanks BB73, I was sure hoping you might bring some insight to this BCS selection issue.
I would rep you but I have to "spread it around before I can give it to BB73 again."
Maybe someone else could help out with some well deserved rep?

I just expanded on that post in the stickied 'BCS Selection Procedures' thread. Ongoing discussion of the BCS bowl picks is better suited over there.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Here were the rankings entering the bowls:

......... AP ........ Coaches ........ BCS
....============== ============== =============
1. .Alabama....... Alabama....... Alabama
2. .Texas......... Texas......... Texas
3. .TCU........... TCU........... Cincinnati
4. .Cincinnati.... Cincinnati.... TCU
5. .Florida....... Florida....... Florida
6. .Boise State... Boise State... Boise State
7. .Oregon........ Oregon........ Oregon
8. .Ohio State.... Ohio State.... Ohio State
9. .Georgia Tech.. Penn State.... Georgia Tech
10. Iowa.......... Georgia Tech.. Iowa

With our solid win over Oregon, Florida's ape-fucking of Cincinnati, and TCU-BSU playing each other, we should end up at #5 in all three polls (I don't see us jumping over either Texas or Alabama, no matter how badly one of them blows out the other). I'd say a top-5 finish in all the polls with a Rose Bowl win is a great season. We definitely should be a top-3 pick in the upcoming pre-season polls.

 

[NFBuck]

Here were the rankings entering the bowls:

......... AP ........ Coaches ........ BCS
....============== ============== =============
1. .Alabama....... Alabama....... Alabama
2. .Texas......... Texas......... Texas
3. .TCU........... TCU........... Cincinnati
4. .Cincinnati.... Cincinnati.... TCU
5. .Florida....... Florida....... Florida
6. .Boise State... Boise State... Boise State
7. .Oregon........ Oregon........ Oregon
8. .Ohio State.... Ohio State.... Ohio State
9. .Georgia Tech.. Penn State.... Georgia Tech
10. Iowa.......... Georgia Tech.. Iowa

With our solid win over Oregon, Florida's ape-fucking of Cincinnati, and TCU-BSU playing each other, we should end up at #5 in all three polls (I don't see us jumping over either Texas or Alabama, no matter how badly one of them blows out the other). I'd say a top-5 finish in all the polls with a Rose Bowl win is a great season. We definitely should be a top-3 pick in the upcoming pre-season polls.

Pretty safe bet and would give JT six Top-5 finishes in nine years (seven Top-10 AP). We're quite spoiled.

M*ch*g*n has ZERO over that same period.

 

[OSUBuckeye4Life]

AP & Coaches (Postseason)

AP Top 25

RK TEAM RECORD PTS

1 Alabama (60) 14-0 1500
2 Texas 13-1 1399
3 Florida 13-1 1370
4 Boise State 14-0 1366
5 Ohio State 11-2 1224
6 TCU 12-1 1163
7 Iowa 11-2 1126
8 Cincinnati 12-1 1060
9 Penn State 11-2 1016
10 Virginia Tech 10-3 953
11 Oregon 10-3 886
12 Brigham Young 11-2 806
13 Georgia Tech 11-3 768
14 Nebraska 10-4 724
15 Pittsburgh 10-3 697
16 Wisconsin 10-3 571
17 LSU 9-4 501
18 Utah 10-3 491
19 Miami (FL) 9-4 310
20 Mississippi 9-4 296
21 Texas Tech 9-4 224
22 USC 9-4 216
23 Central Michigan 12-2 166
24 Clemson 9-5 125
25 West Virginia 9-4 91

Others receiving votes: Oklahoma 90, Oregon State 89, Navy 85, Stanford 67, Oklahoma State 40, Rutgers 37, Auburn 8, Georgia 7, Florida State 6, Connecticut 5, Arizona 5, Middle Tennessee 4, Air Force 3, Arkansas 3, Villanova 2

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Rank Team (first-place votes) Record Points Final regular season rank

1. Alabama (58) 14-0 1,450 1
2. Texas 13-1 1,360 2
3. Florida 13-1 1,323 5
4. Boise State 14-0 1,312 6
5. Ohio State 11-2 1,190 8
6. TCU 12-1 1,104 3
7. Iowa 11-2 1,087 11
8. Penn State 11-2 1,071 9
9. Cincinnati 12-1 943 4
10. Virginia Tech 10-3 940 12
11. Oregon 10-3 846 7
12. Brigham Young 11-2 814 14
13. Georgia Tech 11-3 741 10
14. Nebraska 10-4 671 19
15. Pittsburgh 10-3 667 16
16. Wisconsin 10-3 587 22
17. LSU 9-4 530 13
18. Utah 10-3 466 24
19. Miami (Fla.) 9-4 336 15
20. Southern California 9-4 217 NR
21. Mississippi 9-4 192 NR
22. West Virginia 9-4 159 17
23. Texas Tech 9-4 152 NR
24. Central Michigan 12-2 123 NR
25. Oklahoma State 9-4 92 18

Dropped out
No. 20 Oregon State (8-5, lost to then-No. 14 Brigham Young 44-20), No. 21 Stanford (8-5, lost to Oklahoma 31-27), No. 23 Arizona (8-5, lost to then-No. 19 Nebraska 33-0), No. 25 Houston (10-4, lost to Air Force 47-20).


Others receiving votes
Navy (10-4) 89; Oregon State (8-5) 78; Clemson (9-5) 75; Oklahoma (8-5) 67; Stanford (8-5) 49; Auburn (8-5) 17; Georgia (8-5) 13; Houston (10-4) 12; Middle Tennessee (10-3) 12; Arizona (8-5) 11; Arkansas (8-5) 10; Connecticut (8-5) 10; Florida State (7-6) 9; Air Force (8-5) 7; Rutgers (9-4) 7; Northwestern (8-5) 6; East Carolina (9-5) 4; Southern Methodist (8-5) 1.

 

[buckeyes_rock]

3 Big Ten teams in the top 10 to finish the season? What is this world coming to? LOL!

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

Hey Cincinnati....is it better to be 5, or 8/9? I know 8/9 is bigger.....

 

[Steve19]

Show of hands: People who thought Ohio State would end the season ranked in the top 5 after the loss at Purdue.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I went to CNNSI to see the Harris poll, and although the page says "Updated: Friday January 08, 2010 12:36 PM", it still has us at #8 behind Oregon, Cincinnati, and TCU (all three of whom, of course, lost). When does the final Harris poll come out (big factor in final BCS rankings which currently still has us at #8)?

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

I went to CNNSI to see the Harris poll, and although the page says "Updated: Friday January 08, 2010 12:36 PM", it still has us at #8 behind Oregon, Cincinnati, and TCU (all three of whom, of course, lost). When does the final Harris poll come out (big factor in final BCS rankings which currently still has us at #8)?

Don't know if the GrayBeards' Poll (aka Harris) does a final; but I do know that the BCS rankings are not done (officially anyway) after the Bowls.

 

[ScriptOhio]

Show of hands: People who thought Ohio State would end the season ranked in the top 5 after the loss at Purdue.

Ooh-ooh-ooh!